Economic and jobs news thread

User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 9283
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

weatheriscool wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:50 pm Average U.S. mortgage rates rise; 30-year loan breaches 4%
Source: AP

WASHINGTON (AP) —... That action came Wednesday, as the Fed increased the key rate — which it had kept near zero since the pandemic recession struck two years ago — by a quarter point...
Read more: https://apnews.com/article/business-eco ... 635f2c2657

More on that:

What the Fed Raising Interest Rates Means for Investors
by Alison Cenname
February 22, 2022

https://www.chase.com/personal/investme ... -investors

Introduction:
(J.P. Morgan)
  • By raising interest rates, the Fed wants to make borrowing more expensive.
  • Rising interest rates would encourage people to save more.
  • Less money circulating in the economy means slower economic growth and less inflation.
  • Rising interest rates are generally not welcomed by stock investors although there are certain sectors of the stock market that will benefit.
  • A Fed interest rate hike may see the price of existing bonds fall.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
Posts: 24513
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Image
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 9283
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

It’s a Big Deal that the Fed Raised Interest Rates Today
by Jacob Rosenberg
March 16, 2022

https://www.motherjones.com/mojo-wire/2 ... inflation/

Introdcution:
(Mother Jones) It finally happened: For the first time since 2018, after months of murmurs, the Federal Reserve rose interest rates.
As I wrote previously, it has been clear for the past few weeks that the Fed would begin raising rates. For most of the pandemic, the rate has been near zero. Raising rates is a big deal, and it could (likely will!) have material effects on your life. There’s a reason that the Wall Street Journal has it splashed on its website’s homepage in aggressively large font, replacing its ongoing coverage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

(See article linked above quote box)

The idea behind Wednesday’s move is to combat inflation. Prices have risen far above the targets set by the central bank, causing particular strain at (as you may have heard) the gas pump. A traditional view of interest rates is that raising them is monetary policy that helps curb inflation. In the speak of someone who doesn’t droll over stock returns, this means the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to try to stop prices from increasing but in doing so it could also slow down the whole economy.

In this way, the central bank is edging a dangerous path. Yes, raising rates could help cool inflation, but it would likely do so by raising unemployment—which could harm workers, cause suffering (among a smaller set of people than are hit by inflation, but much more acutely), and wreck the economic recovery that has bounced us back from Covid-19’s shock.

Here’s the wonk version of Jerome Powell, Fed chair, basically saying we’re trying to stop prices rising without ruining workers’ lives: “The plan is to restore price stability while also sustaining a strong labor market. That is our intention and we believe we can do that. But we have to restore price stability.
Edit: Introductory remark deleted.
Last edited by caltrek on Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 9283
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

Investors Ignore Inflation, Shrug at Fed’s Rate Hike and Overlook Ukraine War
by Nick Rummell
March 18, 2022

https://www.courthousenews.com/investor ... raine-war/

Introduction:
MANHATTAN (Courthouse News) — Inflation has not abated, the Federal Reserve finally raised interest rates, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine persists at a terrible human cost. And yet Wall Street rallied midweek and ended Friday on an extremely high note.

By the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1,805 points for the week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also pulled down big wins, nabbing 260 points and 1,050 points, respectively. The S&P 500’s gains were one of the best weekly outings for the index since late 2020.

Wall Street tries to remain days if not weeks ahead of announcements, and investors already have largely discounted inflation as well as the Fed’s interest rate hike. Instead, investors have focused primarily on kernels of good economic news over the past few days.

One of those kernels has been the price of oil. On the West Texas Intermediate exchange, barrels of crude oil dropped from about $110 to $93 earlier in the week. With Russia-Ukraine peace talks sputtering, barrels again rose above $100 a barrel but did not increase to their previous highs.

“Inflation will peak soon and there are plenty of signs pointing to a global economic slowdown regardless,” James Vogt at Tower Bridge Advisors wrote in an investor’s note Friday morning, noting that supply-chain backlogs are decreasing, oil prices have pulled back 20% over the last three days, and manufacturing indexes are dropping.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
User avatar
Ken_J
Posts: 249
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 5:25 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by Ken_J »

caltrek wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:22 pm Investors Ignore Inflation, Shrug at Fed’s Rate Hike and Overlook Ukraine War
by Nick Rummell
March 18, 2022

https://www.courthousenews.com/investor ... raine-war/

Introduction:
MANHATTAN (Courthouse News) — Inflation has not abated, the Federal Reserve finally raised interest rates, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine persists at a terrible human cost. And yet Wall Street rallied midweek and ended Friday on an extremely high note.

By the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1,805 points for the week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also pulled down big wins, nabbing 260 points and 1,050 points, respectively. The S&P 500’s gains were one of the best weekly outings for the index since late 2020.

Wall Street tries to remain days if not weeks ahead of announcements, and investors already have largely discounted inflation as well as the Fed’s interest rate hike. Instead, investors have focused primarily on kernels of good economic news over the past few days.

One of those kernels has been the price of oil. On the West Texas Intermediate exchange, barrels of crude oil dropped from about $110 to $93 earlier in the week. With Russia-Ukraine peace talks sputtering, barrels again rose above $100 a barrel but did not increase to their previous highs.

“Inflation will peak soon and there are plenty of signs pointing to a global economic slowdown regardless,” James Vogt at Tower Bridge Advisors wrote in an investor’s note Friday morning, noting that supply-chain backlogs are decreasing, oil prices have pulled back 20% over the last three days, and manufacturing indexes are dropping.
I can't tell to what degree the behaviour I've been watching is people building sandcastles on the beach and selling shares before the tide comes in, and what degree of it is the fact that since the great depression and 2008 there has been a change in investing that changes how it responds to the four horsemen.

I mean there is probably some 'it's a faith based money system, so if you just believe enough that it's going up, it will keep going up', while there is also a bit of over correcting 'buy the dip' doing on where folks see any small drops as a mark down sale which jumps the demand and causes a rise, and people hold through that expecting it either won't dip again, will return to this level after short dips, or will always climb.

But there is also a lot of corporate buy back, expectation that their losses will be bailed out by tax payers, but the profits are theirs to keep, And there is the military industrial complex and mercenary groups that can be invested in, pharma, and record profit shares in many monopolistic companies from 'inflation' on the food and fuel people need. It's a great time to be a share holder.
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 9283
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

One Percent Move Report for March 22, 2022

https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20220322

Introduction:
(Morgan Stanley) What Happened in the Markets?
  • The S&P 500 rose 1.1% Tuesday to close at 4,512. The index is now down 5.3% year to date after rebounding 8.2% since the 2022 low on March 8th. Constituents within the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors have outperformed the index off of 2022 lows.
  • Chair Powell presented at the National Association for Business Economics meeting Monday and echoed last week's FOMC commentary. Decisions have not yet been made on balance sheet reductions but could come as soon as the May meeting. Additionally, he indicated that if the FOMC decides "that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings," or if there is a "need to tighten beyond common measures of neutral and into a more restrictive stance," the FOMC will do so. Markets are pricing in 1.7 hikes for the May FOMC meeting, suggesting there is a 70% chance of a 50bp hike at the May meeting. Inflation remains high and a slower growth environment is materializing in the United States adding pressure to outlooks for revenue and margin expansion.
  • Ten S&P 500 sectors closed the day higher with Consumer Discretionary (+2.4%) and Communication Services (+2.0%) outperforming the broad market, while Energy (-0.7%), and Health Care (0.0%) lagged.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was 2.38% by the 4 p.m. and WTI oil closed near $112 per barrel.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 13588
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: Essex, UK
Contact:

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by wjfox »

We've never really recovered from 2008.

In other news, I hear Elon Musk will now be the first trillionaire by 2024. That's 15 years earlier than some analysts had predicted just a few years ago.

Something is very, very wrong with our economic system.


Image
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 9283
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Lowest Since 1969
March 24, 2022

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/24/us-week ... hrink.html

Introduction:
(CNBC) New applications for U.S. jobless benefits dropped to a 52-1/2-year low last week, while the number of Americans on unemployment rolls continued to shrink, pointing to rapidly diminishing labor market slack that will keep wage inflation rising.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 28,000 to a seasonally adjusted 187,000 for the week ended March 19, the lowest level since September 1969, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 212,000 applications for the latest week. Claims have declined from a record high of 6.149 million in early April 2020.

There are no signs yet that Russia’s one-month-old war against Ukraine, which has sent U.S. gasoline prices to record highs and is expected to worsen the strain on global supply chains, has impacted the labor market.

Companies are desperate for workers. There were 11.3 million job openings at the end of January, with a record 1.8 open positions per unemployed person.

This misalignment between demand for labor and supply is boosting wage growth, which is providing some cushion to households against the soaring gasoline prices, as well as feeding into high inflation.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 9283
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

One Percent Move Report for March 24, 2022

https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20220324

Introduction:
(Morgan Stanley) What Happened in the Markets?
  • The S&P 500 rose 1.4% Thursday to close at 4,520. With the rally, the index has recorded gains in six of the past eight sessions and is now down 5.2% year to date.
  • Focus remains on geopolitics, as additional sanctions against Russia were announced by the White House Administration, NATO and the Group of Seven today. Weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1969, which could have helped buoy sentiment on Thursday (see previous post - caltrek). Furthermore, S&P Global US PMIs came in higher than consensus expectations this morning.
  • All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed the day higher with Information Technology (+2.7%) and Materials (+2.0%) outperforming the broad market, while Consumer Staples (+0.6%) and Energy (+0.1%) lagged.
  • Yields were higher across the curve as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.36% as of the 4 p.m. equity market close. WTI oil was lower to $111 per barrel while gold rose 1% to $1,960 per ounce. The US dollar was higher as measured by the US Dollar Index.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
Posts: 24513
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Private payrolls rose by 455,000 in March, topping expectations: ADP

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Wed, March 30, 2022, 8:15 AM · 2 min read
U.S. private sector employers brought back slightly more jobs than expected in March as the economy faced ongoing labor shortages and widespread vacancies.

Private sector payrolls rose by 455,000 in this past month, ADP said in its latest report Wednesday. Consensus economists were looking for 450,000 jobs to return, according to Bloomberg data. In February, employers brought back 486,000 payrolls, based on ADP's upwardly revised monthly print.

Job growth in the U.S. private sector has decelerated in every month since December, when nearly 800,000 payrolls returned in a single month, based on ADP's measures. Still, private payrolls have risen at a monthly rate well above pre-pandemic trends, even as the overall size of the U.S. workforce still remains depressed compared to levels before the virus.

ADP's report served as yet another affirmation of the strong momentum across the labor market, with private-sector job growth persisting for 23 consecutive months after a pandemic-related plunge in employment. However, widespread demand for labor and an elevated ratio of job openings to available workers has contributed further to the economy-wide inflationary pressures seen at present — leading some policymakers including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to now deem the labor market "tight to an unhealthy level."
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-jobs ... 53497.html
weatheriscool
Posts: 24513
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Jobless claims: Weekly claims rise to 202,000

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, March 31, 2022, 8:31 AM · 3 min read

Initial unemployment claims rose modestly after reaching a 50-year low as employers continue to show reluctance in reducing their workforces in the current competitive labor market.

The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Initial jobless claims, week ended March 26: 202,000 vs. 196,000 expected and a revised 188,000 during prior week

-- Continuing claims, week ended March 19: 1.307 million vs. 1.340 million expected and a revised 1.342 million during prior week

Weekly unemployment claims edged higher for the first time in three weeks but rose only marginally from multi-decade lows set just last week. At 188,000, last week's tally for new jobless claims marked the lowest level since September 1969. And continuing claims, which track the total number of individuals claiming ongoing benefits on regular state programs, have also fallen precipitously and reached just over 1.3 million in mid-March. The last time it reached that level was in December 1969.

While the weekly jobless claims data have been volatile, the reports over the past several months have shown a clear decrease in the number of individuals newly rendered out of work. While the quits rate has been elevated — and last rose by 0.1 percentage points to reach 2.9% in February — movement between jobs has also been high, with workers largely confident in their abilities to find new roles after leaving their previous positions.

However, the relatively low numbers of new jobless claims belies the strain still facing employers, who have still largely struggled to find enough labor to meet demand. However, some of this deficit has started to be filled, especially as jobs have grown for 14 consecutive months, based on the Labor Department's monthly non-farm payrolls data. Job growth is expected to extend that streak in March in the forthcoming monthly jobs report due out Friday.
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-j ... 49945.html
weatheriscool
Posts: 24513
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

U.S. inflation jumps again and hits 6.4% rate, the Fed's favorite price gauge shows

By Jeffry Bartash
PCE price index rises 0.6% in February

The numbers: The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation calculator rose a sharp 0.6% in February and kept the increase over the past year at a 40-year high, explaining why the central bank plans to move faster to raise U.S. interest rates.

The so-called personal consumption price index climbed to 6.4% in the 12 months ended in February, up from 6.2% in the prior month, the government said Thursday. ... That's the steepest increase since January 1982. ... The better known consumer price index rose by an even higher 7.9% in the 12 months ended in February.

Key details: A narrower measure of inflation that omits volatile food and energy costs, known as the core PCE, rose by 0.4% in February. ... The increase was the smallest in five months and matched the forecast of economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. ... Still, the rise in the core rate in the past year rose to 5.4% from 5.2%, reflecting the largest gain since 1983.

The Fed views the PCE index -- the core rate in particular -- as the most accurate measure of U.S. inflation. It's more comprehensive and takes into account when consumers substitute cheaper goods for more expensive ones -- say ground beef for filet mignon or tofu for chicken.
{snip}

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-i ... 1648730285
weatheriscool
Posts: 24513
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

U.S. economy adds 431,000 jobs in March
Source: Washington Post
The U.S. economy notched another month of robust job growth in March, adding 431,000 new positions and further bolstering the most rapid job market rebound on record.

The unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, from a pandemic low of 3.8 percent in February, the Labor Department said Friday.

The fastest economic recovery in decades has pushed many measures of employment strength into uncharted territory: Job creation and new openings are at near-record levels, while the jobless rate is approaching historic lows. But some worry that the labor market may be too tight, with businesses across the economy reporting labor shortages, as job openings continue to far outnumber available workers.

"It's been a remarkable recovery -- we've never seen anything like this," said Jane Oates, president of the employment-focused nonprofit WorkingNation and a former Labor Department official. "Two years ago, every sector was at least disrupted if not completely shut down. But we've had such a quick recovery that things are almost back to normal."
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... rt-growth/
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 9283
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

The 1% Move Report for April 5, 2022
April 5, 2022

https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20220405
(Morgan Stanley)
What Happened in the Markets?

The S&P 500 declined 1.3% on Tuesday to close at 4,525. With the sell-off, the index is now down 5.1% year to date.

Stocks sold off on Tuesday in what was largely a reversal of the prior day's gains. Growth and technology shares underperformed as interest rates were sharply higher across the curve, while defensives Utilities and Health Care were relative leaders. Tuesday's focus appeared to be on remarks from Federal Reserve President Lael Brainard, who stated the Fed could start reducing its balance sheet as soon as May at "a rapid pace." In geopolitics, additional sanctions are expected to be announced against Russia by the US, EU, and Group of Seven, which includes a ban on new investments in the country. Markets will turn attention to Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes, which could unveil more thinking on the Fed's path for tightening policy and Q1 earnings season, which is set to begin next week.

Four of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher, with Utilities (+0.7%), Health Care (+0.2%) outperforming the broad market while Information Technology (-2.2%) and Consumer Discretionary (-2.4%) lagged.

As of the 4pm equity market close, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.55%, its highest level in three years. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil declined to $100 per barrel while gold was also lower close to $1,920 per ounce. The US Dollar strengthened as measured by the US Dollar Index.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
Posts: 24513
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Jobless claims: Another 166,000 Americans filed new claims last week

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, April 7, 2022, 8:31 AM
U.S. first-time unemployment claims came in well below expectations last week, with the rate of new layoffs and firings staying low compared to pre-pandemic averages.

The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Initial jobless claims, week ended April 2: 166,000 vs. 200,000 expected and a revised 171,0000 during prior week

-- Continuing claims, week ended March 26: 1.523 million vs. 1.302 million expected and a revised 1.506 million during prior week

The number of new claims filed last week marked the lowest level since 1968 and represented a third consecutive week that new claims were below 200,000. The prior week's new claims were also markedly downwardly revised to 171,000, from the 202,000 previously reported for the end of March. Prior to the pandemic, new claims were averaging around 218,000 per week throughout 2019.

The latest weekly jobless claims data comes on the heels of another solid monthly jobs report from the Labor Department, which showed a significant rise in hirings and a drop in the jobless rate to a near 50-year low. Non-farm payrolls grew by 431,000 in March, while the unemployment rate improved by a greater-than-expected margin to 3.6%. And as of last month, the U.S. labor market was just about 1.6 million payrolls short of its pre-pandemic levels.
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-j ... 01498.html
weatheriscool
Posts: 24513
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Mortgage rates hit 5%, highest in more than a decade
Source: Axios
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage hit 5% this week for the first time since 2011, according to widely cited data from Freddie Mac.

Why it matters: It's becoming increasingly expensive to buy a house — if you can even find one. Over the past three months, mortgage rates have surged at a pace last seen in 1987.

At the same time, the home-buying frenzy driven by the pandemic has reduced the available supply of single-family houses. The number of home listings was at a record low last month, according to realtor.com data.

Open houses around the country with a line of folks waiting out the door are not uncommon.

Bottom line: It's going to be hard for first-time buyers to afford a house, but it'll likely be a while before the real estate madness
moderates.

Read more: https://www.axios.com/mortgage-rates-hi ... ee3f8.html
weatheriscool
Posts: 24513
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Jobless claims: Another 185,000 Americans filed new claims last week

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, April 14, 2022, 8:31 AM · 3 min read

U.S. jobless claims held near multi-decade lows last week as companies worked to keep employees on their payrolls amid ongoing labor shortages.

The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Initial jobless claims, week ended April 9: 185,000 vs. 170,000 expected and a revised 167,000 during prior week

-- Continuing claims, week ended April 2: 1.475 million vs. 1.500 million expected, 1.523 million during prior week

While first-time unemployment claims rose slightly more than expected in the latest weekly data, they were still near a 54-year low set earlier this month. Weekly claims fell to the lowest level since 1968 during the prior week at just 167,000. That compares to the average of about 218,000 new claims filed per week throughout 2019 before the pandemic. And the latest figures represent a staggering reversal from the outsized claims filed at the height of the pandemic two years ago, when claims at one point topped 6.1 million in a single week in April 2020.

Given the surge and then decline in jobless claims, the Labor Department has also now reconfigured the way it adjusts the weekly data to account for seasonal factors. Starting last week, the Labor Department returned to using "multiplicative" seasonal adjustment factors for the data. For much of the pandemic, the department had been using "additive" seasonal adjustments that help smooth out large swings in the weekly numbers.

Nevertheless, the underlying trend in the claims data has undeniably pointed to a labor market still short of sufficient worker supply to meet demand. Labor costs have risen for companies across industries as a result, and contributed to a further jump in inflation. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) released earlier this week showed consumer-level inflation rose 8.5% in March over last year — the fastest annual rate since 1981.
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-j ... 45858.html
weatheriscool
Posts: 24513
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Retail sales rise 0.5% in March amid soaring inflation
Source: AP

By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO
NEW YORK (AP) — Retail sales rose modestly in March, but higher prices for food, gasoline and other basics took a big share of consumers’ wallets.

Retail sales increased 0.5% after registering a revised 0.8% increase from January to February. Spending has been fueled by wage gains, solid hiring and more money in banking accounts. January’s increase of 4.9% was the biggest jump in spending since March 2021, when American households received a final federal stimulus check of $1,400.

Excluding an 8.9% increase at gas stations, overall retail sales were actually down 0.3% last month, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

“They are spending selectively this month and the gasoline price spike from the Russian-Ukraine war was where most of the expenditures were made,” said Christopher S. Rupkey, chief economist at research firm FWDBONDS LLC.



Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 3805f40f8d
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 9283
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

How I (and US policymakers) Got Inflation Wrong
by Dylan Matthews
April 13, 2022

https://www.vox.com/22996474/inflation- ... gdp-powell

Introduction:
(Vox) Let’s get this out of the way first: I was wrong about inflation.

When prices began ticking up a little faster than normal early last year, I wasn’t overly concerned. I’d been covering economic policy since 2008, and in that whole time (in fact, in my whole lifetime!), the US had never had a problem with excess inflation.

In fact, our main inflation problem was that we had too little of it. The Federal Reserve, which is tasked with managing the money supply to keep inflation steady and unemployment low, set a low inflation target of 2 percent a year, and kept falling short. If there is, as most economists believe, some trade-off between inflation and unemployment, that means the Fed’s policies on inflation were unduly hawkish and kept many people out of work during the long recovery from the Great Recession.

So I wrote a long piece last summer arguing that high inflation was unlikely in the 2020s. When fears arose last fall that rising inflation expectations — that is, people thinking inflation was going to be higher in the future — could in turn lead to more inflation now, I wrote a newsletter citing research that cast doubt on that theory. This January 1, I predicted that average US inflation for the year would be below 3 percent.

Well, in February, core inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index grew by 5.4 percent, and seems to still be heating up. That’s my preferred metric, but data released on April 12 showed that the more widely publicized consumer price index grew by 8.5 percent compared to the year before, the highest rate in four decades. The US would be very lucky to keep inflation below 5 percent for the year at this point; my prediction of 3 percent looks, three months later, ridiculous.
caltrek: As a whole, including that remainder of the article not included in the introduction above, a fairly good explanation. Still missing is the fact that the corporate elite are most able to take advantage of the situation. So, all of the other explanations offered just provide smoke to obscure the fact that they gain the most from rising prices. They will always charge what they can get away with. A society in great flux gives them more to work with in understanding exactly what it is they can get away with.
Last edited by caltrek on Thu Apr 21, 2022 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
Posts: 24513
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Jobless claims: Another 184,000 Americans filed new claims last week

Emily McCormick · Reporter

Weekly unemployment claims held near their lowest levels since the 1960s, with a strong labor market and improving levels of unemployment remaining a bright spot in the U.S. economy.

The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Initial jobless claims, week ended April 16: 184,000 vs. 180,000 expected, 185,000 during prior week

-- Continuing claims, week ended April 9: 1.417 million vs. 1.459 million expected, 1.475 million during prior week

First-time filings for unemployment benefits remained below 200,000 for a ninth consecutive week. As of last week, the four-week moving average for new jobless claims, which smooths out volatility in the weekly data, stood at just 177,250. Throughout 2019 before the pandemic, new claims averaged about 218,000 per week. And last month, jobless claims reached their lowest level since 1968 at 166,000.

Continuing claims, which tally the number of Americans collecting benefits for multiple weeks, have also declined sharply to reach multi-decade lows. These came in below 1.5 million for a back-to-back week to reach their lowest level since 1970.

The weekly jobless claims data have served as an ongoing reminder of the tightness in the current labor market. Job openings have far outpaced new hires — a phenomenon many companies this quarterly earnings season have been quick to acknowledge.
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-j ... 08572.html
Post Reply