Nuclear Weapons Watch Thread

[weatheriscool]

Honestly, I support nuclear weapons. If we get rid of them out of fear of our inability not to blow ourselves off this planet then maybe we deserve to go extict. The advantages of having them outweighs the disadvantages within my mind. Some examples of such advantages is planetary defense against aliens and asteroids! It would be like not grabbing the bfg on doom because you're afraid of it. We're not going to see greatness as a species or even have the ability to survive very long if we're not to use logic and sense and have the ability to use the elements of our universe to our advantage.

And besides it keeps the world wars to a minimum was no big countries that have them will attack each other. How many decades after getting rid of nuclear weapons will it take before we get into a massive war once again???

[weatheriscool]

Also consider this, are we as a species really going to f*ck with anti-matter, quarks and controlling stars if we're too chicken shit and out of control to have nukes? lol Forget space travel outside of the solar system if this is the case.

[caltrek]

Zelenskyy Says World Should 'Be Ready' for Putin to Use Nuclear Weapons
by Kenny Stancil
April 154, 2022

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/ ... ar-weapons

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday warned that the world should prepare for Russia to use nuclear weapons as part of its ongoing assault.

When asked if he is worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin might use a so-called tactical nuclear weapon on Ukraine, Zelenskyy told CNN's Jake Tapper: "Not only me—I think all of the world, all the countries, have to be worried because... it can be not real information, but it can be truth."

The Kremlin could use nuclear or chemical weapons, argued Zelenskyy, because it doesn't value the lives of would-be victims. "We should... not be afraid but be ready," the besieged president said in English from his office in Kyiv. "But that is not a question for Ukraine, not only for Ukraine but for all the world, I think."

Zelenskyy's comments came one day after CIA Director Bill Burns said that U.S. officials are closely monitoring the possibility of a cornered Putin launching nuclear weapons.

"Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the setbacks that they've faced so far militarily, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons," Burns said in a public address at Georgia Tech, though he emphasized that the U.S. has not yet seen evidence of Moscow preparing to take such a step.

[raklian]

Also consider this, are we as a species really going to f*ck with anti-matter, quarks and controlling stars if we're too chicken shit and out of control to have nukes? lol Forget space travel outside of the solar system if this is the case.

Well, by then, we'll have tons of planets, O'Neill cylinders and Dyson spheres to fall back on should we detonate something in a speculator fashion, intentionally or accidentally.

We don't have that luxury at the moment since, well, we've got only one puny planet with a paper-thin breathable atmosphere to survive on.

[caltrek]

Russia Claims to Have Successfully Test-Launched Sarmat ICBM from Plesetsk Spaceport
April 20, 2022

https://tass.com/defense/1440631?utm_so ... edrive.com

Introduction:

(Tass) MOSCOW, April 20. /TASS/. Russia successfully conducted the first launch of a Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk Region, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Wednesday.

"Today, at 15:12 Moscow time, a Sarmat silo-based intercontinental ballistic missile was successfully test-launched from a silo launcher at the Plesetsk state testing cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk Region," the ministry said in a statement.

"The launch’s tasks were achieved in full. The designated characteristics were confirmed at all the stages of its flight. The practice warheads arrived at the designated area at the Kura proving ground on the Kamchatka Peninsula," the ministry added.

During the first flight tests of the cutting-edge heavy missile with the MIRVed (multiple independently targetable vehicle) warheads, the correctness of its design, structural and technical solutions was assessed. The breakthrough Sarmat ICBM will enter service with Russia’s Strategic Missile Force after the program of its tests is over. The Sarmat is due to replace the Voyevoda ICBM.

"Work is underway at the Uzhursky missile formation to prepare a forward missile regiment for its rearmament with the new missile system," the ministry said.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r ... py-mission

Introduction:

(The Drive) In a highly unusual move, a pair of U.S. Air Force RC-135S Cobra Ball intelligence-gathering aircraft flew together toward the east coast of Russia today. The reason for the two-aircraft mission was the first full-scale test launch of Russia’s new RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), one of the six ‘super weapons’ that were showcased by President Vladimir Putin back in March 2018.

The two RC-135S aircraft, serial numbers 62-4128 and 61-2663, launched from Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska earlier today and apparently flew in formation toward Russia’s Far East coast. Online flight-tracking software shows the aircraft close to St. Matthew Island, a remote, uninhabited outpost of Alaska in the Bering Sea.

The two Cobra Balls were observing the Sarmat’s multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) test warheads as they returned to Earth on a designated area at the Kura Proving Ground on the Kamchatka Peninsula, in the Russian Far East.

Typically, the Cobra Ball would take up station closer to the Russian coast, with an orbit area off Klyuchi, also on the Kamchatka Peninsula. It’s possible, therefore, that the two RC-135S aircraft today were ‘caught short,’ with reentry occurring before the jets reached their planned station.

The War Zone spoke to Robert S. Hopkins, III, an independent scholar and aviation historian, and a former Air Force pilot with experience flying 17 different C-135 sub-variants, including both the RC-135S Cobra Ball aircraft involved today, to get a better understanding of the rarity of this mission. (See linked article for further discussion).

[wjfox]

Russia warns it will deploy ‘Satan 2’ nuclear missiles ‘capable of hitting UK’ by the autumn

1 day ago

Russia has announced it will deploy its recently tested “Satan II” missile by the autumn, as tensions between Moscow and the west mount amid the Ukraine war.

The Kremlin announced the first test launch of its new, nuclear-capable Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system on Wednesday, with experts warning the warhead could target the UK as well as Europe and the US.

The Sarmat is capable of carrying 10 or more nuclear warheads and decoys, and of striking targets thousands of miles away in the United States or Europe.

This week's test, after years of delays due to funding and technical issues, marks a show of strength by Russia at a time when the war in Ukraine has sent tensions with the United States and its allies soaring to their highest levels since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.

[...]

Mr Putin claimed the missile, which hit its targets after traveling roughly 6,000km (3,700 miles), is virtually impossible to defend against with current technology.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 64110.html

[wjfox]

North Korea: Kim Jong-un vows to step up nuclear weapons programme

By Zubaidah Abdul Jalil & Frances Mao
2 hours ago

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a defiant speech at a military parade on Monday night, vowing to ramp up the country's nuclear arsenal.

The parade, to mark the armed forces' founding anniversary, also displayed banned intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

In March, North Korea tested its largest-known ICBM for the first time since 2017.

It sparked wide condemnation from the international community.

The US also imposed several sanctions on the country after the test. ICBMs, designed for nuclear arms delivery, extend North Korea's strike range as far as the US mainland.

The parade also featured submarine-launched ballistic missiles in addition to hypersonic missiles.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-61225675



Credit: EPA

[wjfox]

Just when you thought 2022 couldn't get any crazier.

Oh, and thanks a lot Trump.

-----

White House says Iran is ‘a few weeks or less’ from bomb breakout

Today, 2:54 am

The US said Tuesday that Iran’s nuclear breakout time was down to weeks, and blamed the previous administration, as negotiations between Tehran and world powers continued to stall.

“Their breakout period is down from about a year, which is what we knew it was during the deal, to just a few weeks or less,” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said at a press conference, referring to the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Iran’s breakout time was “down to a matter of weeks.”

The Biden administration has issued similar warnings about Iran’s nuclear breakout time in the past.

The breakout period refers to the amount of time it will take Iran to amass enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, if it chooses to do so.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/white-hou ... -breakout/

[caltrek]

Will Putin Go Nuclear? A Timeline of Expert Comments
By Susan D’Agostino
April 27, 2022

https://thebulletin.org/2022/04/will-pu ... st-heading

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) “The risk of global nuclear war has practically disappeared,” Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, said in his 1991 Nobel Prize acceptance speech, even though Russia and the United States retained their massive nuclear arsenals.

Three decades later, nine countries are members of the nuclear club. Even so, many were reassured last summer when Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden during a Geneva summit reiterated the Gorbachev-Regan statement that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”

But ever since Russia’s late-February invasion of Ukraine, political leaders, nuclear arms control experts, and world citizens have tried to answer some version of the question: Will Putin use nuclear weapons in his war in Ukraine?

The utterances by individuals of note listed below might have been responses to this question. These statements, arranged chronologically, offer a still-unfolding existential narrative on whether nuclear war may or may not be imminent. (See link above the quote box for referenced timeline)

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

Putin is inching towards his nukes, threatening to annihilate the world if he fails to capture Ukraine, says foreign affairs expert

Sun, May 1, 2022, 4:20 PM

The subject of nuclear weapons is being pushed into the foreground by Russian media and officials.

Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that the risk of a global nuclear war is very real. This ominous warning came not from some deranged psychopath – like the ones who regularly demand Kyiv to be nuked on Russian state TV. These were the words of the top diplomat of the Russian Federation.

In diplomatic parlance, Lavrov essentially admitted that their vaunted offensive in Donbas is stalling, the war is lost, and Russia has nothing to counter Western weapons pouring in Ukraine. Politically and militarily, Russia is backed into a corner.

Since Putin can’t accept defeat, the Kremlin is indicating that nuclear weapons are on the table as its last resort in this war.

This is nothing less than a threat to unleash an atomic war on the world. Even if Lavrov personally may not be eager to bring the end of days – being but a minister of the Russian state – his overlord is perfectly capable of and ready for the apocalypse. Lavrov merely broadcasts his master’s will.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-inching-to ... 00734.html

[wjfox]

Russia – clearly a totally normal country, with mature and level-headed leaders who use diplomatic language; can be reasoned with, and trusted.

Not in the least bit evil, deranged, or psychopathic.

-----

Russian TV warns Britain will be ‘drowned in radioactive tsunami’ missile strike

Monday 2 May 2022 10:57 am

Britain will be ‘plunged into the sea’ if Russia were to launch a nuclear attack, Kremlin propaganda has warned.

In what would have been unthinkable just three months ago, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened the West with nuclear war.

Most recently, Russian state TV broadcast a bizarre video threatening to attack Britain with a hypersonic missile, known as Satan-2, and an ‘underwater robot drone’, known as Poseidon.

Dmitry Kiselyov, dubbed Putin’s propagandist-in-chief, said: ‘What will happen after Boris Johnson’s words about a retaliatory strike on Russia?

‘Why do they threaten vast Russia with nuclear weapons while they are only a small island? The island is so small that one Sarmat missile is enough to drown it once and for all. Russian missile Sarmat [aka Satan-2], the world most powerful…is capable of … destroying an area the size of Texas or England. A single launch, Boris, and there is no England anymore. Once and for all. Why do they play games?’

https://metro.co.uk/2022/05/02/russian- ... -16569402/

[raklian]

@ Certain Russian User - you seriously need to consider pushing for Navalny to be freed from prison and vote for him. Your country has lost its mind.

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

Potential U.S. Responses to the Russian Use of Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine
by Jeffrey Edmonds
May 16, 2022

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) When the rhetoric from the Russian political and military leadership turns to the possibility of a war pitting the United States and its NATO allies against Russia, the mention of nuclear weapons is usually close behind. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently raised the nuclear specter over the Ukraine war, insisting that NATO is engaging in a proxy war with Russia. While insisting that Russia seeks to avoid nuclear war at all costs, he warned that the “danger is serious, real, and we must not underestimate it.”

This is double talk typical of Lavrov; through it, he attempts to paint Russia as a responsible actor, even though Russia is the only actor in this war that would consider using nuclear weapons. The Russian leadership has also used nuclear threats to signal its displeasure with the expansion of NATO, suggesting it will deploy nuclear-capable missiles near Finland and Sweden if they join the alliance.

Many of these nuclear threats are signals, meant to politically coerce. But what if Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine to change the apparent negative direction of the Russian invasion there? Four response options seem at least plausible: the West could use a nuclear weapon or weapons against Russian forces, in or outside Ukraine; it could conduct a conventional military attack on Russian forces, in or outside Ukraine; it could continue its current policy of supplying Ukraine with weapons while avoiding direct conflict with the Russian military; or it could press Ukraine to settle the conflict, on terms that give Russia a face-saving out.

Read here for further discussion: https://thebulletin.org/2022/05/potenti ... st-heading

[caltrek]

'Worrying Trend': Global Nuclear Stockpile Set to Grow for First Time Since Cold War
by Kenny Stancil
June 13, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) The world's stockpile of nuclear warheads is expected to expand in the coming years for the first time since the 1980s and the catastrophic threat of those weapons being used is escalating, a leading arms watchdog said Monday.

"If the nuclear-armed states take no immediate and concrete action on disarmament, then the global inventory of nuclear warheads could soon begin to increase for the first time since the Cold War," Matt Korda, an associate researcher with the Weapons of Mass Destruction Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said in a statement released alongside SIPRI's annual report.

As of early 2022, nine countries—Russia, the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea—possessed a combined total of 12,705 nuclear warheads, SIPRI estimates. Together, Russia and the U.S. control more than 90% of this global inventory.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... -cold-war

[caltrek]

Amid 'Heightened' Fears of Nuclear War, Dem Lawmakers Urge US to Join Arms Summit
by Brett Wilkins
June 17, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Amid the looming threat of nuclear escalation in Ukraine, a group of U.S. congressional Democrats on Friday urged the Biden administration to send delegates to a key upcoming nuclear disarmament summit in Austria.

In a letter to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.), and Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.)—the four co-chairs of the Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Working Group—urged the State Department to send senior officials to participate in the 2022 Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons Conference, which is set to begin in Vienna next week.

The lawmakers note that the conference will take place in the shadow of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, "which has heightened concerns about the use of nuclear weapons in conflict."

"Active U.S. participation in the conference will provide an important platform to discuss the current unsettling state of nuclear affairs in the world and demonstrate U.S. leadership in managing the nuclear threat," the authors argue.

They add that nuclear "saber-rattling" by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government and Russia's "vast arsenal of tactical or 'battlefield' nuclear weapons" is a "frightening reminder that the conventional war in Ukraine could turn nuclear—whether intentionally, by miscalculation, or even by accident."

Nearly 70% of respondents to a March survey conducted for the American Psychological Association said they feared Russia's war in Ukraine will escalate to include use of nuclear weapons.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... ms-summit

[caltrek]

Russia-Belarus Nuclear Sharing Would Mirror NATO’s—and Worsen Europe’s Security
by Nikolai N. Sokov,
July 1, 2022

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) At their meeting on June 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, discussed the deployment of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus—a new and potentially dangerous development in the ever-worsening security situation in Europe. The issue was raised by Lukashenko but the decision was announced by Putin. It had two elements: Belarusian Su-25 attack aircraft will be equipped to carry nuclear weapons, and conversion of the planes and training of pilots will be implemented in Russia. Nothing was said about the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, but this can be presumed; otherwise, there would be no reason to create a dual-capable aircraft capability, although the transfer of weapons might require a separate decision. Second, Iskander missiles—a dual-capable, short-range (500 kilometers or 310 miles) missile system—will be deployed in Belarus in both its ballistic and cruise-missile versions.

The next day the Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov clarified that the deployment will not necessarily involve the transfer of nuclear warheads and that the systems discussed by Putin were “technically capable” of carrying nuclear weapons.

A NATO official told the Bulletin that planned deployment was not “a strategic game-changer from a regional deterrence perspective,” indicating that the enhancement of the Russian conventional capability was more consequential for NATO than the nuclear implications.

Unsurprisingly, Russia’s justified the nuclear-sharing decision by citing the growing threat of NATO. It is noteworthy, though, that Putin used highly inflated and outdated estimates of NATO nuclear capability—200 nuclear bombs in six countries and 257 aircraft to carry them. The director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists, Hans Kristensen, corrected Putin on Twitter, noting that NATO currently has about 100 bombs deployed in five countries and probably about 100 dual-capable aircraft. The numbers matter little in this case, but they do illustrate Moscow’s willingness to distort reality to justify its policy decision.

Read more here: https://thebulletin.org/2022/07/russia ... t-heading

[caltrek]

How Disagreements Over Russia’s Nuclear Threats Could Derail the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference
by Jamie Kwong
July 1, 2022

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) Members of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), also known as the ban treaty, met June 21-23 in Vienna for the treaty’s first meeting of states parties. As the first formal gathering since the treaty entered into force in 2021, the meeting set the course for implementing the treaty’s bans on nuclear weapons and related activities and its positive obligations on victim assistance and environmental remediation. The meeting also shed light on what to expect at the second, highly anticipated nuclear meeting of the summer: the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference.

For context, the ban treaty is intimately linked to the NPT—although supporters and opponents of the TPNW disagree on exactly how. Critics of the ban treaty—which include nuclear-armed states recognized by the NPT and their allies—contend that the treaty is an unrealistic approach to disarmament that threatens to disrupt the NPT, the cornerstone of the global disarmament and nonproliferation regime. Members of the ban treaty instead argue that the treaty complements the NPT and provides practical mechanisms for implementing the NPT’s commitment to disarmament—and reaffirmed as much in Vienna.

Perhaps their surest link, both treaties have designated Summer 2022 as an auspicious meeting time. NPT members will gather in New York City in August for the treaty’s 10th Review Conference to identify and address challenges facing the treaty and its larger regime.

Last week’s ban treaty meeting provides useful insight into what issues might be most pressing—and simultaneously presents its own challenges. NPT members can anticipate contention around Russia’s war on Ukraine, disagreement on how to address the Vienna meeting in New York, and continued divides over the NPT’s disarmament remit.

Read more here: https://thebulletin.org/2022/07/how-di ... t-heading

[caltrek]

How Nuclear War Would Affect Earth Today
July 7, 2022

Introduction:

(EurekAlert) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought the threat of nuclear warfare to the forefront. But how would modern nuclear detonations impact the world today? A new study published today provides stark information on the global impact of nuclear war.

The study’s lead author LSU Department of Oceanography & Coastal Sciences Assistant Professor Cheryl Harrison and coauthors ran multiple computer simulations to study the impacts of regional and larger scale nuclear warfare on the Earth’s systems given today’s nuclear warfare capabilities. Nine nations currently control more than 13,000 nuclear weapons in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

In all of the researchers’ simulated scenarios, nuclear firestorms would release soot and smoke into the upper atmosphere that would block out the Sun resulting in crop failure around the world. In the first month following nuclear detonation, average global temperatures would plunge by about 13 degrees Fahrenheit, a larger temperature change than in the last Ice Age.

“It doesn’t matter who is bombing whom. It can be India and Pakistan or NATO and Russia. Once the smoke is released into the upper atmosphere, it spreads globally and affects everyone,” said Harrison, who has a joint appointment at the LSU Center for Computation & Technology.

Ocean temperatures would drop quickly and would not return to their pre-war state even after the smoke clears. As the planet gets colder, sea ice expands by more than 6 million square miles and 6 feet deep in some basins blocking major ports including Beijing’s Port of Tianjin, Copenhagen and St. Petersburg. The sea ice would spread into normally ice-free coastal regions blocking shipping across the Northern Hemisphere making it difficult to get food and supplies into some cities such as Shanghai, where ships are not prepared to face sea ice.

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/958087

From the study:

(AGU Advances) In all scenarios, the ocean cools rapidly but does not return to the pre-war state when the smoke clears. Instead, the ocean takes many decades to return to normal, and some parts of the ocean would likely stay in the new state for hundreds of years or longer. When the cooling event ends, Arctic sea ice is left in a new state, a sort of “Nuclear Little Ice Age.” Marine ecosystems would be highly disrupted by both the initial perturbation and the resulting new ocean state, resulting in impacts to ecosystem services worldwide, lasting for decades. This study underscores the danger of nuclear war and the long-term impacts to humans and our environment.

Read more here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co ... 1AV000610