Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek
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Research Exposes Long-term Failure of Russian Propaganda in Ukraine’s Donbas Region
May 2, 2022

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/951246

Introduction:
(EurekAlert) A study of thousands of stories from media outlets churning out propaganda in Ukraine’s Donbas in the years after Russia’s first invasion suggests that the Kremlin’s disinformation campaign has long neglected any coherent or convincing messaging to foster support for Russia in the war-torn region.

After 2014, when news media in the so-called “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk that make up much of Donbas were forcibly taken over by Russian-backed insurgents, efforts to instil a pro-Russian “identity” were lazy and half-baked, and dwindled to nothing within months.

This is according to University of Cambridge researcher Dr Jon Roozenbeek, who says that – based on his analysis of over four years of media content – such limited efforts likely had little effect on the consciousness of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in Donbas.
Conclusion:
“Putin has severely underestimated the strength of Ukrainian national identity, even in Donbas, and overestimated the power of his propaganda machine on the occupied areas of Ukraine.”

Roozenbeek’s research was conducted for his PhD between 2016 and 2020, and will feature in his forthcoming book ‘Influence, Information and War in Ukraine’, due out next year as part of the Society for the Psychology Study of Social Issues book series Contemporary Social Issues, published by Cambridge University Press.
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caltrek
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Pentagon Says Russians are Making Minimal Progress in Donbas
by David Vergun
May 3, 2022

https://www.eurasiareview.com/03052022- ... in-donbas/

Introduction:
(Departemnt of Defense News via Eurasian Review) Russian forces in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine — where the bulk of the fighting is taking place — are suffering from poor command and control, low morale, and less than ideal logistics, a senior Defense Department official, said Monday.

“We continue to see minimal, at best, progress by the Russians in the Donbas,” the official said. “They are not making the progress that they had scheduled to make and that progress is uneven and incremental.”

The Russians have had some minor gains east of the Ukrainian cities of Izyum and Popasna, the official said, adding that that progress has been anemic.

“What we saw there in Popasna is not unlike what we’ve seen in other hamlets in the Donbas. [The Russians] will move in and then declare victory and then withdraw their troops only to let the Ukrainians take it back. So, there was a lot of back and forth over the last couple of days,” the official said.

Also, the Pentagon has observed that Russian forces seem to have a risk and casualty aversion in both the air war and the ground war, the official said.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine: UK cuts Russia off from management services

2 hours ago

Russia has been banned from using British management consulting, accounting and PR services in new sanctions announced by the UK.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the ban will cut off service exports "critical to the Russian economy".

Ms Truss said the ban will "help ensure Putin fails in Ukraine".

Other sanctions among the 63 introduced on Wednesday target Russian media organisations and those working for them.

The government said UK accountancy, management consultancy and PR services account for 10% of Russian imports in these sectors.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61321530
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It is a huge shock to see how weak and ineffective russia has become. Ukraine literally defeated them from taking the capital and forced them to focus within 100 miles of Ukraines border.
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Russia pounds Ukraine, targeting supply of Western arms
Source: AP

By JON GAMBRELL and CARA ANNA
LVIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces pounded targets across Ukraine, taking aim at supply lines for foreign weapons in the west and intensifying an offensive in the east, as the European Union moved Wednesday to further punish Moscow for the war with a proposed ban on oil imports.

The Russian military said Wednesday it used sea- and air-launched precision guided missiles to destroy electric power facilities at five railway stations across Ukraine, while artillery and aircraft also struck troop strongholds and fuel and ammunition depots.

The defense minister repeated that Russian forces have blocked off a steel mill in Mariupol from which scores of civilians were evacuated over the weekend. Another official denied they were storming the plant, as its defenders said a day earlier.

Ukrainian authorities, meanwhile, said attacks in the eastern Donbas region left 21 civilians dead.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 9e52253079
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Israeli Government Indicates that Putin Has Apologized for "Hitler" Claim
by Barak Ravid
May 5, 2022

https://www.axios.com/2022/05/05/putin- ... ood-israel

Introduction:
(Axios) Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized on Thursday for his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's false claim that Adolf Hitler had "Jewish blood," the Israeli Prime Minister's Office said following a call between Putin and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.

Why it matters: Lavrov’s comments created a diplomatic crisis between Russia and Israel, which was heightened Tuesday after the Russian Foreign Ministry doubled down on Lavrov's statements and accused Israel of supporting Ukrainian "neo-Nazis." If confirmed, Putins' apology is a remarkable walk back.

Catch up quick: In an interview with an Italian TV channel on Sunday, Lavrov used the erroneous claim about Hitler's ancestry to justify calling Ukraine's Jewish president, Volodymyr Zelensky, a Nazi.
  • Israeli officials including President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid all condemned Lavrov's comments as antisemitic "lies." It was the first time Israel publicly condemned the groundless Russian claim that Zelensky is a Nazi.
  • The Israeli Foreign Ministry summoned Russia's ambassador for what Israeli officials called “a very difficult conversation."
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Water »

I mainly lurk these boards but the bits of Russia support in this particular thread was totally baffling.

When it comes to accusations of propaganda, both sides could go endlessly. You could go on and on sharing anecdotes, staged or not, rumors or memes. However, what amazes me is that when someone knows their government..
  • Controls a huge scoop of land rich of resources - yet the common folks aren't enjoying a quarter the wealth they should get out of it while dodgy billionaires get it all
  • Bans the word "war" and actually makes it punishable when a person calls it as such - let alone call it an invasion
  • Indeed, makes it illegal for a domestic news reporter to criticize said invasion in any way
  • Imprisons political opposition
  • Censors one source of free information after another
  • Makes anti-war protests illegal and gradually worsens the penalties
.. yet they are somehow not able to see that these are extremely serious red flags that they are probably manipulated and lied to. When your government starts implementing these kinds interventions, how can you not see that they are the bad guys this time? The irony was complete when I saw criticism towards the admin for deleting a bunch of Telegram links. When this happened on an internet forum, "censorship" was called. When a damn government throws citizens in jail for spreading words other than what they dictate to be truth, however, it's totally fine.

It's bizarre. The year 2022. An age of fast, digital communication, where anyone is one VPN away from limitless information. Yet land grabbing governments still manage to make people support total genocide like it's still the 40's.
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Russian warship Admiral Makarov 'on fire after being hit by Ukrainian missile'
Source: The Independent

Russia’s Admiral Makarov warship has been hit by Ukrainian missiles and burst into flames, according to Ukrainian officials.

The frigate would be Russia’s latest high-profile naval loss in a troubled campaign, coming after reports that US intelligence helped Ukraine locate and sink the Russian warship Moskva weeks ago.

The Makarov was said to have been sailing close to Snake Island in the Black Sea south of Odesa.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Anton Gerashchenko reported on his Telegram page that the Admiral Makarov was hit by a Ukrainian “Neptune” anti-ship missile. He cited Russian sources.
Read more: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 73007.html
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Biden announces new $150 million weapons package for Ukraine
Source: Reuters
WASHINGTON, May 6 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden signed a new $150 million weapons package for Ukraine on Friday, providing additional artillery munitions, radar and other equipment in the latest in a series of transfers to help Kyiv repel Russia's invasion.

"Today, the United States is continuing our strong support for the brave people of Ukraine as they defend their country against Russia's ongoing aggression," Biden said in a statement.

The United States has rushed $3.4 billion worth of armaments to Ukraine since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, including howitzers, anti-aircraft Stinger systems, anti-tank Javelin missiles, ammunition and recently-disclosed "Ghost" drones.

The new package will be worth $150 million and include 25,000 155mm artillery rounds, counter-artillery radar, jamming equipment, field equipment and spare parts, a U.S. official said.
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive ... 022-05-06/
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Russia is poised to send a warning to the West by flying a "doomsday" plane during its planned "Victory Day" parade in Moscow next week.

The annual Victory Day celebration, which commemorates the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, will take place May 9 in Moscow's Red Square. The Russian Ministry of Defense said on Friday that this year's parade would include a rare flight of the Ilyushin Il-80, an airborne command plane designed to carry Russian President Vladimir Putin and other top officials in the event of a nuclear war, according to Reuters.

The plane has not flown as part of the Victory Day parade since 2010. This year's march, a show of force that typically includes a display of military equipment and a large number of troops, will take on special significance due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its suggestions that nuclear war could occur should the West become directly involved.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine war: 60 people killed after bomb hits school, Zelensky says
13 minutes ago

Around 60 people were killed after a bomb hit a school in east Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.

Earlier, the governor of Luhansk region, Serhiy Haidai, said 90 people had been sheltering in the building in Bilohorivka, and 30 were rescued.

Mr Haidai said a Russian plane had dropped the bomb on Saturday - Russia has not commented.

Luhansk has seen fierce combat as Russian troops and separatist fighters seek to surround government forces.

Much of the region has been under the control of Russia-backed separatists for the past eight years.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe ... medium=RSS
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Putin 'will turn to more drastic means' to achieve objectives in Ukraine, says US spy chief

33m ago
15.22

More from Avril Haines, the US director of national intelligence, who said that the Ukraine war is becoming a war of attrition with no end in sight.

Haines said:

"Putin most likely judges that Russia has a greater ability and willingness to endure challenges than his adversaries and he is probably counting on US and EU resolve to weaken as food shortages, inflation and energy prices get worse. Moreover, as both Russia and Ukraine believe they can continue to make progress militarily, we do not see a viable negotiating path forward at least in the short term.

The uncertain nature of the battle which is developing into a war of attrition, combined with the reality that Putin faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities, likely means the next few months could see us moving along a more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory.

The current trend increases the likelihood that President Putin will turn to more drastic means, including imposing martial law, reorienting industrial production, or potentially escalatory military actions to free up the resources needed to achieve his objectives as the conflict drags on, or if he perceives Russia is losing in Ukraine."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... 8563797966
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Two Russian journalists appear to defy Putin, slamming the war in Ukraine
Source: CNN
Two Russian reporters appeared to post at least 30 articles on Monday that criticized President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

CNN reviewed the articles, which were taken down almost immediately after they were published on a pro-Kremlin news site. Some were pegged to the 77th anniversary of the Soviet Union's defeat of Nazi Germany, while others criticized Putin for using Russia's Victory Day to justify his violent onslaught in Ukraine.

Reporters Egor Polyakov and Alexandra Miroshnikova made several claims in their articles, including that Russian defense officials were "lying to relatives" of those killed on the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet flagship. They directly accused Putin of launching one of the "bloodiest wars of the 21st century."

"Putin and his circle are doomed to face a tribunal after the end of the war," Polyakov and Miroshnikova published to the news site Lenta.ru. "Putin and his associates won't be able to justify themselves or flee after losing this war."
-snip-

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/10/media/ru ... index.html
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Russia pounds vital port of Odesa, targeting supply lines
Source: AP

ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine (AP) — Russian troops pounded the vital port of Odesa, Ukrainian officials said Tuesday, an apparent effort to disrupt the supply lines and Western weapons shipments critical to Kyiv’s defense.

Ukraine’s ability to stymie a larger, better-armed Russian military has surprised many who had anticipated a much quicker conflict. With the war now in its 11th week and Kyiv bogging Russian forces down and even staging a counteroffensive, Ukraine’s foreign minister appeared to suggest the country could expand its aims beyond merely pushing Russia back to areas it or its allies held on the day of the Feb. 24 invasion.

One of the most dramatic examples of Ukraine’s ability to deny Moscow easy victories has been Mariupol, where Ukrainian fighters remained holed up at a steel plant, denying Russia’s full control of the city. The regiment defending the plant said Tuesday that Russian warplanes continued pounding it.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... ffbe91b774
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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wjfox wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 2:56 pm Putin 'will turn to more drastic means' to achieve objectives in Ukraine, says US spy chief

33m ago
15.22

More from Avril Haines, the US director of national intelligence, who said that the Ukraine war is becoming a war of attrition with no end in sight.

Haines said:

"Putin most likely judges that Russia has a greater ability and willingness to endure challenges than his adversaries and he is probably counting on US and EU resolve to weaken as food shortages, inflation and energy prices get worse. Moreover, as both Russia and Ukraine believe they can continue to make progress militarily, we do not see a viable negotiating path forward at least in the short term.

The uncertain nature of the battle which is developing into a war of attrition, combined with the reality that Putin faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities, likely means the next few months could see us moving along a more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory.

The current trend increases the likelihood that President Putin will turn to more drastic means, including imposing martial law, reorienting industrial production, or potentially escalatory military actions to free up the resources needed to achieve his objectives as the conflict drags on, or if he perceives Russia is losing in Ukraine."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... 8563797966
Hence why I feel it's only a matter of time before we see tactical nukes used. I don't think Putin will order them on major cities, but absolutely he'll have some used on military and economic targets. It's really just a matter of time before we get the first notification of "Unidentified major detonation reported in [Ukrainian target]" immediately followed by "Emergency UN meeting called"
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by raklian »

Yuli Ban wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 8:58 pm
wjfox wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 2:56 pm Putin 'will turn to more drastic means' to achieve objectives in Ukraine, says US spy chief
Hence why I feel it's only a matter of time before we see tactical nukes used. I don't think Putin will order them on major cities, but absolutely he'll have some used on military and economic targets. It's really just a matter of time before we get the first notification of "Unidentified major detonation reported in [Ukrainian target]" immediately followed by "Emergency UN meeting called"
Biden did warn Putin if he used nukes in any form Russia will be punished severely. It sounds like the United States has a contingency plan in case Russia does use nukes in Ukraine. I speculate USA and Europe will at least go full-throat imposing sanctions on every bit of Russia's exports/imports, essentially cutting it clean from the rest of the world's economy. The next step is probably to threaten sanctions on China & India if it does not impose sanctions on Russia in step with the rest of the world. China and India will in some way reluctantly heed the call now that Russia has unleashed the forbidden taboo of dropping a nuke to change the direction of a conflict that was in no way threatening Russia's own existence. If push comes to shove, the United States will give Russia an ultimatum to completely withdraw its forces and territorial claims or it will send Ukraine some of its tactical nukes for the howitzers it already sent to Ukraine. So, basically taking the game of brinkmanship to the next level to a point some in the Kremlin will get quite nervous and ask Putin to stand down or else.
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Ukraine Blows Up Russia's Best Tank With Help From Sweden
Source: Newsweek

BY ZOE STROZEWSKI ON 5/10/22

Ukraine has reportedly blown up a second Russian T-90M tank, one of the most advanced types that Russia has in service, just days after destroying what was said to be the first one.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry posted a video on Twitter Tuesday showing an aerial view of a tank far in the distance just before it was struck and engulfed in flames that sent a black mushroom cloud of smoke into the air. The ministry said that territorial defense fighters used a Swedish Carl Gustaf handheld anti-tank grenade launcher to destroy the tank near Staryi Saltiv in Ukraine's Kharkiv oblast (or province) and thanked Sweden for the assistance.

The reported destruction of one of Russia's best tanks came less than a week after Ukraine said that it destroyed the first one days after the T-90M's presence in Ukraine was first reported by Kyiv on April 25. The alleged loss of the second tank may be a significant blow to Russia's military in light of recent indications that Ukrainian forces have been gaining ground in some areas and Russia has been losing it. Russia has not addressed or verified those reports.
Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-blows- ... en-1705292
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Ukraine pushes back Russian troops in counter-offensive near Kharkiv

May 11, 2022

Ukraine said on Tuesday its forces had recaptured villages from Russian troops north and northeast of the city of Kharkiv, pressing a counter-offensive that could signal a shift in the war's momentum and jeopardise Russia's main advance.

Ukrainian troops in recent days recaptured four settlements north of Ukraine's second-largest city, said Tetiana Apatchenko, a press officer with the main Ukrainian force in the area.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the Ukrainian successes were gradually pushing Russian forces out of Kharkiv in the country's northeast, which has been under perpetual bombardment since the war began.

"But I also want to urge all our people... not to spread excessive emotions. We should not create an atmosphere of excessive moral pressure, where victories are expected weekly and even daily," Zelenskiy said in a video address.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/mi ... 022-05-10/
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Russian prisoner to be tried in first war crimes case in Ukraine
Source: The Hill

Ukraine’s Office of the Prosecutor General on Wednesday said that a Russian soldier was indicted and would face a trial for an alleged war crime.

The accused soldier, who is already in custody, shot and killed a 62-year-old civilian who was unarmed and riding a bicycle through the village of Chupakhivka in February, the prosecutor general’s office said.

Vadim Shishimarin, the 21-year-old soldier, will be the first Russian soldier to be put on trial for a war crime amid Moscow’s ongoing unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, according to The Washington Post.

Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova told the U.S. Helsinki Commission that Russia has committed almost 10,000 war crimes throughout the invasion, according to Axios.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ar-AAXa3LQ
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