Time to check in on some old predictions about the Ukraine War that went viral on Twitter in mid-March. I recommend reading the compendium of all the Tweets here:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1505 ... 83239.html
But here's the important bit:
The cumulative effects of all these factors leads to horrendous levels of Russian Army Truck fleet operational attrition.
Short form: 6-to-8 weeks more fighting will deadline the entire Russian Army military truck fleet.
16/
Between the end of April and Mid-May 2022, the Ukrainian Army will be able to counter-attack EVERYWHERE.
Because there will be NOWHERE more than 20 miles/30 km inside Ukraine where Russian troops won't be out of food and low on ammunition.
17/End
It's now late May 2022. Since then, Russian forces have retreated from the northern part of Ukraine and focused on taking over the southern and eastern parts of the country. Russia now controls a zone roughly 50 miles deep along that long arc. I don't have information on the state of Russian military logistics or trucks at the front lines, but the fact that they're still advancing shows things have not fallen apart for the Russians. Bullets, food and other supplies are still making it to their fighting men, though they're having serious problems. The "entire Russian Army military truck fleet" has not been lost.
As the person predicted, Ukrainian forces have launched many successful counterattacks against the Russians, thought its unclear whether they will prevail in the east, where the fighting is now focused.
