Ukraine War Watch Thread

[funkervogt]

Russia has already reduced the amount of natural gas it is supplying the rest of Europe, spuriously blaming "technical issues." The supplies will almost certainly be reduced further later this year, as winter arrives and Russia tries to pressure NATO to cut its support for Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61899509

Between this, the growing global food shortages, and the worsening U.S. economy, I have the strong feeling we're in the "calm before the storm," and the world situation will be pretty bad in six months.

[Certain Russian user]

At this point in the War, Russia's artillery advantage is the decisive factor.

Yes, but not just that. Experience and morale too. Ukrainian army, though more numerous, largely consists of conscripts (especially now), while Russian forces in Ukraine - entirely of contract soldiers. If you were grabbed on the street and after a few weeks of training (in best case) thrown into battle to met Russian "musicians" - the result is completely predictable. Some men joined the so-called "Territorial Defense Forces" in order to serve in their own region (that is, far from the frontline). This did not help, Ukrainian government changed the rules and those "territorials" were sent to Donbass.

This has been especially noticeable in recent days. Something broke in them...

=== === ===

Today's map (battle for Lysychansk has begun, yesterdays Hirs'ke-Zolote pocket is almost over):

[Time_Traveller]

Fighting entering ‘climax’ in key regions, says Ukraine

Thu 23 Jun 2022

The battle for two key cities in eastern Ukraine is edging towards “a fearsome climax”, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said, as the war in Ukraine is set to enter its fourth month on Friday.

Russia’s efforts to capture Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk – the two remaining cities under Ukrainian control in Luhansk – have turned into a bloody war of attrition, with both sides inflicting heavy casualties. Moscow, over the last two weeks, has managed to make steady gains.

“The fighting is entering a sort of fearsome climax”, said Oleksiy Arestovych in an interview late on Wednesday.

Serhiy Haidai, the governor of the Luhansk region, one of two in the eastern Donbas, said on Thursday morning that Russian forces have been “successful” in their advances. He added that enemy forces had captured Loskutivka, a settlement to the south of Lysychansk, which threatened to isolate Ukrainian troops.

“In order to avoid encirclement, our command could order that the troops retreat to new positions,” Haidai said in a post on Telegram. Russian state news agency TASS cited Russian-backed separatists saying Lysychansk was now surrounded and cut off from supplies after Russia captured a road linking the city to Ukrainian-held territories.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... lysychansk

[Vakanai]

Russia has already reduced the amount of natural gas it is supplying the rest of Europe, spuriously blaming "technical issues." The supplies will almost certainly be reduced further later this year, as winter arrives and Russia tries to pressure NATO to cut its support for Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61899509

Between this, the growing global food shortages, and the worsening U.S. economy, I have the strong feeling we're in the "calm before the storm," and the world situation will be pretty bad in six months.

The fact that the past couple of years, which are easily the worst years globally in my lifetime, could be considered "calm" to what's coming is downright terrifying.

[Certain Russian user]

^ ^ ^ That person above asked me to never quote him, so I will not. But my post is a reply to his:

This is the world of new Cold War with main actors waging local wars in third countries.
This is the de-globalized fragmented world of military-political blocs.
This is the world of a thinning middle class and exploding inequality.
This is the world where neoliberal centrism is in crisis, and left and right radicalism on the rise.
This is the world of systemic state terrorism masquerading as non-state.
This is the world of permanent state cyber warfare masquerading as non-state.
This is the world of conventional, robotic, hypersonic and nuclear-missile weapons race with a general increase in the number of warheads and delivery vehicles.
This is the world of militarized outer space and its growing role in global confrontation.
This is the world where treaties mean almost nothing, and state borders change, because they are not guaranteed by anything but force.
This is the world of total surveillance and indirect state control.
This is the world of total control of the digital environment, censorship and fragmentation of the Internet.
This is the world of profaned and helpless interstate institutions, starting with the UN.
This is the world of valued non-renewable resources and devalued service economy.

Looks gloomy, but we've already bought a ticket for this train, which is too late to jump off. In fact, the brave new world will come only when we go through the ensuing troubled times of the transforming world order.

[weatheriscool]

Officials: US to send rocket systems, other aid to Ukraine
Source: Associated Press via MSN

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will send another $450 million in military aid to Ukraine, including some additional medium-range rocket systems, U.S. officials said Thursday.

The latest package will include a number of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, and is expected to be anounced later Thursday. The initial four HIMARS that the U.S. sent have already gone into Ukraine and are in the hand of troops there. The package will also include ammunition and other supplies.

The new aid comes just a week after the U.S. announced it will send $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine, and as the Russian military continues to slowly expand its control in the eastern Donbas region. Ukrainian leaders have persistently asked for the more advanced, precision rocket systems in order to better fight back against Russia. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details ahead of an announcement.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/world/of ... ar-AAYN1Kz

[funkervogt]

Russia has already reduced the amount of natural gas it is supplying the rest of Europe, spuriously blaming "technical issues." The supplies will almost certainly be reduced further later this year, as winter arrives and Russia tries to pressure NATO to cut its support for Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61899509

Between this, the growing global food shortages, and the worsening U.S. economy, I have the strong feeling we're in the "calm before the storm," and the world situation will be pretty bad in six months.

The fact that the past couple of years, which are easily the worst years globally in my lifetime, could be considered "calm" to what's coming is downright terrifying.

At least COVID-19 will have receded by this winter.

[Certain Russian user]

There are reports (yeah, unconfirmed) that Russian aviation and artillery decimating Ukrainian troops retreating from Lysychansk and that the Lysychansk-Seversk road became the new "Highway of Death". Not as large-scale, of course, as what the Americans have done in Iraq, but still...

Your face when you have read too much of WjFox and Andmar74, but then went offline and faced the "already defeated" Russian army:

[Vakanai]

Russia has already reduced the amount of natural gas it is supplying the rest of Europe, spuriously blaming "technical issues." The supplies will almost certainly be reduced further later this year, as winter arrives and Russia tries to pressure NATO to cut its support for Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61899509

Between this, the growing global food shortages, and the worsening U.S. economy, I have the strong feeling we're in the "calm before the storm," and the world situation will be pretty bad in six months.

The fact that the past couple of years, which are easily the worst years globally in my lifetime, could be considered "calm" to what's coming is downright terrifying.

At least COVID-19 will have receded by this winter.

I will believe that when I see that...

[ibm9000]

No, Russian goodwill on the Security Council cannot be trusted. There are good reasons to keep that organisation intact and operating, but that does not mean it should be given additional responsibilities.
Agreed as long we keep in mind that US cannot be trusted either, who can be trusted?


I am not an advisor to the Ukrainian government. What it does as a result of a gun being pointed to its head is its decision to make. Or least should be its decision to make. That does not mean we should ignore the fact that a gun (metaphorically speaking) is being held to its head.
US was complaining, in the past, because Europe was using "non-coercitive diplomacy".

If Panama wants additional guarantees, I would not personally object to the idea of granting them. I suspect they do not do so because they are satisfied with their current security arrangements. If you have any news or information to the contrary, please feel free to share it. Probably the Central America thread would be more appropriate unless you want to tie it into a more comprehensive discussion regarding Ukraine.
Agreed, just...
what country is going to give what guarantee to what country in case of what country does what?
It sounds like WWI, and still I cannot see Russia and US are not going to do whatever they want.

[caltrek]

Putin... worms, cookies... cyberwarfare... we don't trust you...

C'mon, be honest at least to yourself! This was not at all about "worms and cookies", this was another attempt to "cancel" the new disturbing information and protect one's own intellectual virginity.

That's what amaze me no end. Even in darkest days of Soviet censorship, people tried to seek the "voices from outside". It seems you guys (fortunately not all, but unfortunately majority) don't even try. Paraphrasing Sun Tzu: "Silencing the ten thousand loud commoners is not the height of censorship. Make commoners silence each other - that's the height..."

This, from the most prolific lying to himself person on the forum. I read your posts, much as they discomfort me. I have even cited Russian language sources where English translation is provided. I even posted an English translation of Putin's speech justifying the invasion. So please, spare me the holier than thou attitude on that front.

Yes, and the same can be said about the U.S. due to its past transgressions.

True, but I am not afraid to read the western media or sit in western forum, as you can see. While you shrink in horror before the mere piece of text offered to you: "no-no-no, I don't trust... and we're all do not trust... and there must be worms and cookies..."

That's the fundamental difference.

See above. On top of which I favor free speech within our country, and cite sites highly critical of U.S. policies. In your secluded information silo, Russia does not engage in cyber warfare. Western sources know better because they have directly experienced such efforts. You laugh when somebody explains that reality to you, and then expect us to believe the crap your country puts out. Crap that cannot go contested within your borders without risk of being declared illegal. Sure, maybe a whimper here and there on Telegram, but not on your television or other mainstream sources. It is laughable that you even think there is a comparison to be made, much less endorse the positions that you put forward. Laughable were not the consequences so serious. Still, it is your country's troops that are killing off "our" Ukrainian citizens, and are being killed in turn for that lunacy. So, it is you (collectively) that most suffers in the end. Including the march toward the ultimate deprivation of all freedom to dissent, which may ultimately include the freedom to "read the western media." That you cannot even perceive that this is happening is astonishing. Not because it isn't taking place, but because you do not seem to understand how totalitarianism takes hold. I am of German ancestry, so all of that is within the fading living memory of my German-American parent. Who was also well positioned to report on the experience of both realities.

[caltrek]

No, Russian goodwill on the Security Council cannot be trusted. There are good reasons to keep that organisation intact and operating, but that does not mean it should be given additional responsibilities.
Agreed as long we keep in mind that US cannot be trusted either, who can be trusted?

Well, each individual must make that choice for themselves. I would point out that the U.S. is a multi-party political system, and that there are pacifist elements within the Democratic party. So, I think you can arrive at sources that are relatively trustworthy. Of course, that is my IMHO (in my humble opinion).

I am not an advisor to the Ukrainian government. What it does as a result of a gun being pointed to its head is its decision to make. Or least should be its decision to make. That does not mean we should ignore the fact that a gun (metaphorically speaking) is being held to its head.[/b]
US was complaining, in the past, because Europe was using "non-coercitive diplomacy".

"Non-coercitive"? Do you mean non-coercive?

In any case, I am not sure what point you are trying to make here.

If Panama wants additional guarantees, I would not personally object to the idea of granting them. I suspect they do not do so because they are satisfied with their current security arrangements. If you have any news or information to the contrary, please feel free to share it. Probably the Central America thread would be more appropriate unless you want to tie it into a more comprehensive discussion regarding Ukraine.[/b]
Agreed, just...
what country is going to give what guarantee to what country in case of what country does what?

Your question itself is confusing in that you were previously talking about the U.S. Panama, Russia and Ukraine. As to Panama, I refer back to my previous response. Are there any elites in Panama who are now seriously concerned about their security in relation to the United States government?

As to Ukraine, yes it is difficult when dealing with a country (Russia) that constantly produces nothing but a torrent of lies and deception.

It sounds like WWI, and still I cannot see Russia and US are not going to do whatever they want.

Sad amount of truth to that observation. Still, I think the U.S. under Biden is acting far more defensively rather than offensively. (I am talking of Europe and not other places around the globe such as Africa and South America where a less aggressive policy is desirable, at least IMHO).

[caltrek]

While Russians (including Russian-Ukrainians) may suffer the most for Russia's slide toward aggressive totalitarianism, the rest of the planet will also suffer. This is a calculus that acknowledges that no one will "win".

The War in Ukraine Pushes the World Closer to the Edge of a Climate Precipice
by C.J. Polychroniou
June 23, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Russia's invasion of Ukraine constitutes a crime of aggression under international law. Putin's regime launched an attack on a sovereign country that posed no direct threat to the Russian Federation. Russian forces have pounded cities into submission, thousands of civilians have been killed, and millions have fled as refugees.

The war on Ukraine has also fueled a food crisis in developing countries across the world and added to the widespread inflation in food prices. Russia and Ukraine export more than a quarter of the world's wheat. But blockades and sanctions are causing wheat shortages in many Middle East and African countries.

However, the business of war is profitable. Putin's war in Ukraine, which could last for years, is in fact an absolute godsent to the most destructive forces on the planet, namely the arms industry and the fossil fuel companies.

Military expenditure, which reached an all-time high of $2.1 trillion in 2021, will surely rise much further as several European countries have already made plans to beef up their armed forces in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In a historic vote, the German parliament voted for a constitutional amendment to create a $100 billion euro ($112 billion) fund to modernize the country's armed forces. The bulk of the money will go toward the purchase of American-made F-35 fighter jets. German chancellor Olaf Scholtz also promised that Germany would spend more than 2 percent of its gross national product on the military. In real terms, Germany's annual defense spending would increase by 50 percent in 2022 alone," according to Alexandra Marksteiner, researcher at the SIPRI Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. "This would catapult Germany towards the top of the list of the world's largest military spenders. All else being equal, Germany would rank third—up from seventh in 2020—behind the United States and China and ahead of India and Russia."

Belgium, Italy, Norway, Poland, Romania, and Sweden have also announced a boost to their defense spendings. Indeed, Putin's invasion of Ukraine has managed to revive a "brain-dead" NATO. Even Nordic states with a long history of neutrality are now eager to join the transatlantic alliance.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/author/cj-polychroniou

[Time_Traveller]

BREAKING: Car bomb kills Russian-appointed Dmitri Savluchenko in occupied Kherson

24 June 2022

A RUSSIAN appointed official in southern Ukraine’s occupied city of Kherson has been killed by an apparent car bomb attack on Friday, June 24.

Dmitri Savluchenko, the head of the family, youth and sports department of the so-called ‘military-civilian’ administration of the Kherson region, died after a car bomb was detonated in a residential neighbourhood this morning (June 24).

“We confirm the information about the explosion. Now the group has gone to the place, they are sorting it out. There is no data. So far, according to preliminary information, one person has died,” according to Russian state-owned media.

TASS reported that the car exploded in the driveway of a four-story house. The windows of the house were shattered as a result of the blast.

Two cars are believed to have been destroyed at the site of the explosion.

The news outlet noted that the area has been cordoned off and bomb experts are on the scene.

The People’s Deputy of Ukraine, Oleksiy Goncharenko, said: “In Kherson, the car of one of the most famous local collaborators, Dmitry Savluchenko, was blown up.” He shared an image on his Telegram channel of a body laying on the ground.

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/06/24/car-bomb-kherson/

[caltrek]

^^^The mentality will be to blame Ukrainian terrorists. As if no right to self-defense exists. I would not be surprised if, like cancer, this spreads into genuinely terrorist acts within Russia properly defined. Of course, Putin and the Russian elite will take no responsibility for completely mucking this all up. The U.S., NATO, and other such entities will instead be blamed, despite no evidence whatsoever of any connection or encouragement by such entities.

[weatheriscool]

BREAKING: Car bomb kills Russian-appointed Dmitri Savluchenko in occupied Kherson

24 June 2022

A RUSSIAN appointed official in southern Ukraine’s occupied city of Kherson has been killed by an apparent car bomb attack on Friday, June 24.

Dmitri Savluchenko, the head of the family, youth and sports department of the so-called ‘military-civilian’ administration of the Kherson region, died after a car bomb was detonated in a residential neighbourhood this morning (June 24).

“We confirm the information about the explosion. Now the group has gone to the place, they are sorting it out. There is no data. So far, according to preliminary information, one person has died,” according to Russian state-owned media.

TASS reported that the car exploded in the driveway of a four-story house. The windows of the house were shattered as a result of the blast.

Two cars are believed to have been destroyed at the site of the explosion.

The news outlet noted that the area has been cordoned off and bomb experts are on the scene.

The People’s Deputy of Ukraine, Oleksiy Goncharenko, said: “In Kherson, the car of one of the most famous local collaborators, Dmitry Savluchenko, was blown up.” He shared an image on his Telegram channel of a body laying on the ground.

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/06/24/car-bomb-kherson/

Russia has truly been shown to be a toothless bear that has been deballed and shown to be a joke. Putin did that! Putin should be pulled through the streets by a mob of his people and hung in the middle of reds square!.

[Lorem Ipsum]

The fact that the past couple of years, which are easily the worst years globally in my lifetime, could be considered "calm" to what's coming is downright terrifying.

At least COVID-19 will have receded by this winter.

I will believe that when I see that...

Monkeypox could take its place.

[caltrek]

At least COVID-19 will have receded by this winter.

I will believe that when I see that...

Monkeypox could take its place.

I will believe that when I see it.

Not that I am predicting that such an outcome will never happen, it is just that I feel that pessimists shouldn't get all the fun of being skeptical.

Also, at this point I think we are starting to overcompensate for our lack of preparation for Covid. Understandable, but not necessarily entirely rational.

[caltrek]

...

Russia has truly been shown to be a toothless bear that has been deballed and shown to be a joke. Putin did that! Putin should be pulled through the streets by a mob of his people and hung in the middle of reds square!.

They tried that sort of thing once. How do you think we all ended up with Stalin?

Who then begat the KGB, who then begat Putin.

They should have listened to Tolstoy, as in The Kingdom of God is Within You. Even Trotsky would have meant some possibility for free speech, freedom of the arts etc.

Oh well.

[Time_Traveller]

Ukraine war: Several Russian generals removed by Kremlin over course of conflict - UK defence intelligence says

Saturday 25 June

Several generals have been removed from their commands by Russia's military chiefs as a result of the progress of the Ukraine war, UK Defence Intelligence has said.

They include the commander of Airborne Forces General-Colonel Andrei Serdyukov; and commander Southern Group of Forces General of the Army Alexandr Dvornikov, according to the intelligence branch of the Ministry of Defence.

It comes as Ukraine is probably re-configuring its defence of the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk sector, in the face of creeping gains by Russian armoured units on the southern edge of the built up area, Defence Intelligence added.

On Friday, it was revealed Ukrainian forces had been ordered to withdraw from Severodonetsk after weeks of fierce street fighting, in order to limit more casualties and regroup.

The move, which is the biggest strategic loss for Ukraine since the withdrawal from Mariupol, is likely to be seen by Russia as a significant victory.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... s-12640134