China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan

[wjfox]

Taiwan: China attack not imminent, but US watching closely, says Gen Milley

1 hour ago

A Chinese attack on Taiwan is not imminent, the top US general says, but the US is watching "very closely".

China is clearly developing the capability to attack at some point, but deciding to do so would be a political choice, Gen Mark Milley told the BBC.

China says Taiwan is a breakaway province that must be re-unified with the mainland, by force if necessary.

It has accused the US of supporting Taiwan's independence, and vowed to "resolutely crush" any such attempt.

There has been a marked escalation recently between China and the US - Taiwan's most powerful ally.

China has been sending scores of warplanes into Taiwan's air defence zone, while the US has sent naval ships through Taiwan's waters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62022308

[Yuli Ban]

That's been my position for years now: the only time China would actually decide to attack is if they knew for almost a fact they'd win, that they could do it before the USA could respond, and more to the point, if the USA COULDN'T respond for whatever reason (such as social/political collapse).


They're not going to attack by 2025 or 2030 unless the USA ceased to be a political entity.

[Certain Russian user]

They're not going to attack by 2025 or 2030 unless the USA ceased to be a political entity.

In our time, one must be very careful with such predictions. Even with second (purely rhetorical, as far as I understand) part.

To clarify: this is not pure trolling but based on my understanding of current news from US domestic policy (actions of the supreme court and such). Surely a steps (be it symbolic or real) towards "cease to be a political entity".

[joe00uk]

Western hegemony has already diminished to the point where rising powers (and their allies) can pursue their objectives with as much supposedly "illegal" force as they like and win. That's what we're seeing happen in Ukraine right now, and that's sending a clear message to the rest of the world. Just look at how Turkey used this situation to blackmail Sweden and Finland over NATO membership. If US and NATO support for Ukraine can't give them the upper hand, then there's no reason to think this won't encourage China to draw up its own "special military operation" for Taiwan. Such is the global anarchy that develops in times of imperial decline. The fall of Pax Britannica gave way to the two world wars of the 20th Century, and the fall of Pax Americana isn't likely to be much fun and games either.

[Doozer]

I think China is gonna wait out and see how Putin's efforts in Ukraine goes first.

[weatheriscool]

Pelosi departs Taiwan as furious China holds military drills
Source: CNBC

TAIPEI, Taiwan — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi departed Taiwan on Wednesday after a whirlwind visit that captured global attention and further strained relations between the United States and China. Before boarding a plane to leave the island at around 6 a.m. ET, Pelosi vowed solidarity with the self-ruling democracy that Beijing claims as its territory while China launched military drills, summoned the U.S. ambassador and halted some imports from Taiwan in a display of angry protest at her visit.

“Our delegation came here to send an unequivocal message: America stands with Taiwan,” Pelosi said at a news conference in Taipei after meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. Beijing had warned against the Pelosi visit for weeks, issuing threats that raised fears of a new crisis in the region between the world’s two biggest economies. As soon as she touched down Tuesday, Chinese officials unleashed a barrage of furious statements and announced plans for military exercises starting immediately. On Wednesday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized Pelosi’s visit as a “political farce.”

“It is Pelosi who is grandstanding, but it is bilateral relations and regional peace and stability that will suffer,” Hua Chunying said. Some of the additional military drills planned for later this week will take place within Taiwan’s sea and air territory, a move the island democracy denounced as a serious violation that amounted to land and naval blockades. Both Pelosi and Tsai said they were committed to maintaining the status quo, under which the United States recognizes Beijing as the sole legitimate government of China but maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan.

“We want Taiwan to always have freedom with security, and we’re not backing away from that,” Pelosi said. Tsai thanked the U.S. delegation, which includes five other House Democratic lawmakers, for visiting “under such challenging circumstances,” calling the Chinese military exercises “unnecessary.” China views Pelosi’s visit as highly provocative because of her status as a high-ranking official. While U.S. lawmakers and other current and former government officials regularly visit Taiwan, Pelosi is the first House speaker to visit the island since Newt Gingrich in 1997.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/pelosi- ... rills.html

[weatheriscool]

U.S. Navy deploys four warships east of Taiwan as Pelosi heads to Taipei
Source: Reuters

HONG KONG (Reuters) - As U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi headed to Taipei on Tuesday amid intensifying warnings from China, four U.S. warships, including an aircraft carrier, were positioned in waters east of the island on "routine" deployments.

The carrier USS Ronald Reagan had transited the South China Sea and was currently in the Philippines Sea, east of Taiwan and the Philippines and south of Japan, a U.S. Navy official confirmed to Reuters on Tuesday.

The Japanese-based Reagan is operating with a guided missile cruiser, USS Antietam, and a destroyer, USS Higgins.

"While they are able to respond to any eventuality, these are normal, routine deployments," the official said, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The official added that they were unable to comment on precise locations.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u- ... 203c52f164

[weatheriscool]

China conducts 'precision missile strikes' in Taiwan Strait
Source: AP

By JOHNSON LAI and HUIZHONG WU

KEELUNG, Taiwan (AP) — China conducted “precision missile strikes” Thursday in waters off Taiwan’s coasts as part of military exercises that have raised tensions in the region to their highest level in decades following a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

China earlier announced that military exercises by its navy, air force and other departments were underway in six zones surrounding Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory to be annexed by force if necessary.

Five of the missiles fired by China landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone off Hateruma, an island far south of Japan’s main islands, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said. He said Japan protested the missile landings to China as “serious threats to Japan’s national security and the safety of the Japanese people.”

Japan’s Defense Ministry also speculated that four missiles flew over Taipei, the capital city, crossing the mainland, according to a statement its embassy in D.C. posted on Twitter. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry did not deny the claim, saying that the flight path was “outside the atmosphere and is not harmful to the vast area on the ground it flies over.”

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-asia- ... 61618d28af

[weatheriscool]

Japan PM meets Pelosi, calls China drills 'grave problem'
Source: AP

By MARI YAMAGUCHI

TOKYO (AP) — Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Friday that China’s military exercises aimed at Taiwan represent a “grave problem” that threatens regional peace and security after five ballistic missiles launched as part of the drills landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

Kishida, speaking after breakfast with U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her congressional delegation, said the missile launches need to be “stopped immediately.”

China, which claims Taiwan and has threatened to annex it by force if necessary, called Pelosi’s visit earlier this week to the self-ruled island a provocation and on Thursday began military exercises, including missile strike training, in six zones surrounding Taiwan, in what could be its biggest since the mid-1990s.

In Taipei on Wednesday, Pelosi said the American commitment to democracy in Taiwan and elsewhere “remains ironclad.” She became the first House speaker to visit the island in 25 years.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china ... 5665287bb4

[weatheriscool]

Blinken: China military drills are 'significant escalation'
Source: AP

By DAVID RISING

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday that China’s military exercises aimed at Taiwan, including missiles fired into Japan’s exclusive economic zone, represent a “significant escalation” and that he has urged Beijing to back down.

China launched the drills following a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan that infuriated Beijing, which claims the self-governed island as its own territory.

Blinken told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Cambodia, however, that Pelosi’s visit was peaceful and did not represent a change in American policy toward Taiwan, accusing China of using it as a “pretext to increase provocative military activity in and around the Taiwan Strait.”

He said the situation had led to a “vigorous communication” during East Asia Summit meetings in Phnom Penh in which both he and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi took part along with the ASEAN nations, Russia and others.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... e5f223463d

[weatheriscool]

Taiwan says China military drills appear to simulate attack
Source: AP

BEIJING (AP) — Taiwan said Saturday that China’s military drills appear to simulate an attack on the self-ruled island, after multiple Chinese warships and aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei that infuriated Beijing.

Taiwan’s armed forces issued an alert, dispatched air and naval patrols around the island, and activated land-based missile systems in response to the Chinese exercises, the Ministry of National Defense said. As of 5 p.m., 20 Chinese aircraft and 14 ships continued to carry out sea and air exercises around the Taiwan Strait, it said.

The ministry said that zones declared by China as no-go areas during the exercises for other ships and aircraft had “seriously damaged the peace.” It emphasized that Taiwan’s military does not seek war, but would prepare and respond for it accordingly.

China’s Ministry of Defense said in a statement Saturday that it had carried out military exercises as planned in the sea and airspaces to the north, southwest, and east of Taiwan, with a focus on “testing the capabilities” of its land strike and sea assault systems.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china ... dc823819b6

[weatheriscool]

China keeps up pressure on Taiwan with 4th day of drills
Source: AP

BEIJING (AP) — China said Sunday it carried out its fourth consecutive day of military drills in the air and sea around Taiwan in the wake of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the self-ruled island, despite international calls to calm the tensions.

The People’s Liberation Army said the exercises focused on testing its long-range air and ground strikes. It did not say if it will continue the drills after Sunday.

Taiwan said that it continued to detect several batches of Chinese aircraft, ships and drones operating around the Taiwan Strait, which separates the island and mainland China, and “simulating attacks on the island of Taiwan and our ships at sea.”

Taiwan’s official Central News Agency meanwhile reported that Taiwan’s army will conduct live-fire artillery drills in southern Pingtung County on Tuesday and Thursday, in response to the Chinese exercises.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-world ... a589f84114

[weatheriscool]

White House summoned Chinese ambassador to condemn provocations after Pelosi's Taiwan visit
Source: CNN

The White House summoned China's ambassador on Thursday to condemn China's "irresponsible" military activities near Taiwan as tensions continue to escalate in the region following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island this week.

"After China's actions overnight, we summoned PRC Ambassador Qin Gang to the White House to demarche him about the PRC's provocative actions. We condemned the PRC's military actions, which are irresponsible, at odds with our long-standing goal of maintaining peace and stability and across the Taiwan Strait," National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said in a statement to CNN.

The decision to summon Qin came after days of warnings to China not to escalate tensions in the region following the speaker's visit to the self-governing island, which the Chinese Communist Party regards as its territory despite having never controlled it. It represents a shift from the White House's attitude about the trip before it occurred, when officials privately tried to warn Pelosi over the possible consequences of the visit and how it could harm US-China relations. The meeting was first reported by The Washington Post.

In the days since Pelosi left Taiwan, China has taken multiple bellicose steps, both diplomatically and militarily.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/05/politics ... index.html

[weatheriscool]

Taiwan holds drills, says China seeks control of seas
Source: AP

By JOHNSON LAI

PINGTUNG, Taiwan (AP) — Taiwan’s foreign minister said Tuesday that China is using military drills to rehearse an invasion of the self-governing island democracy, while Taiwan’s military began its own live-fire exercises in a show of readiness to thwart off a potential attack.

Joseph Wu said Beijing aims to establish its dominance in the Western Pacific and annex Taiwan, which it claims as its own territory. That would include control of the East and South China Seas via the Taiwan Strait and preventing the U.S. and its allies from aiding Taiwan, he told a news conference in Taipei.

China says its drills were prompted by the visit to the island last week by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but Wu said China was using her trip as a pretext for intimidating moves it has long had in the works. China also banned some Taiwanese food imports after the visit and cut off dialogue with the U.S. on a range of issues from military contacts to combating transnational crime and climate change.

The U.S. has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan in deference to Beijing, but is legally bound to ensure the island can defend itself and to treat all threats against it — including a blockade — as matters of grave concern. That leaves open the question of whether Washington would dispatch forces if China attacked Taiwan. President Joe Biden has said repeatedly the U.S. was bound to do so, in comments swiftly walked back by his staff.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china ... 7dcebf5d3d

[weatheriscool]

US congressional delegation visits Taiwan
Source: CNN

(CNN) A US congressional delegation led by Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Ed Markey has arrived in Taipei on an unannounced two-day visit, Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Joanne Ou said in a statement on Sunday night.

The delegation also consists of Democratic Reps. John Garamendi, Alan Lowenthal and Don Beyer, and Republican Rep. Aumua Amata Coleman Radewagen, the statement added.

The group will meet with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen and Foreign Minister Joseph Wu during the visit, and will also hold discussions with the Taiwanese parliament's Foreign Affairs and National Defense committee on security and trade issues, the ministry said.

The foreign ministry added that it sincerely welcomed the delegation, and thanked them for demonstrating the US' strong support toward Taiwan despite escalating tensions with Beijing. The visit follows a trip by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan earlier this month, which caused an uproar in US-Chinese relations.

This story is breaking and will be updated.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/14/politics ... index.html

[weatheriscool]

China announces new drills as US delegation visits Taiwan
Source: AP

By JOHNSON LAI

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — China announced more military drills around Taiwan as the self-governing island’s president met with members of a new U.S. congressional delegation on Monday, threatening to renew tensions between Beijing and Washington after a similar recent visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi angered China.

Pelosi was the highest-level member of the U.S. government to visit Taiwan in 25 years, and her trip prompted nearly two weeks of threatening military exercises by China, which claims the island as its own. In those drills, Beijing fired missiles over the island and into the Taiwan Strait and sent warplanes and navy ships across the waterway’s midline, which has long been a buffer between the sides that split amid civil war in 1949.

China accuses the U.S. of encouraging the island’s independence through the sale of weapons and engagement between U.S. politicians and the island’s government. Washington says it does not support independence, has no formal diplomatic ties with the island and maintains that the two sides should settle their dispute peacefully — but it is legally bound to ensure the island can defend itself against any attack.

American and Taiwanese officials have accused China of using Pelosi’s visit as a pretext for intimidating moves, and a senior U.S. official said recently that Washington would continue to deepen its ties with Taiwan in the coming days and weeks.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china ... 99aa34c5ea

[funkervogt]

A new analysis concludes that the U.S. and Taiwan could defeat a Chinese invasion of the island, but at high cost. The tabletop exercise assumed war happened in 2026.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/08/chinas-dr ... sumptions/

It's an interesting read. A key assumption is that no one else helps the U.S. and Taiwan. If Japan and/or Australia joined the fight, China's odds of victory would sharply drop.

Even if it won, the U.S. military might be so damaged by a war for Taiwan that it would not be able to prevail in a major war elsewhere in the world for several years until it had replaced its losses. Imagine Russia or Iran taking advantage of that.

[funkervogt]

And here's a very in-depth analysis of China's growing military strength. Key conclusion: China is still at least 10 years away from reaching its military peak relative to the U.S. That said, invading Taiwan now would be a mistake.

[raklian]

And here's a very in-depth analysis of China's growing military strength. Key conclusion: China is still at least 10 years away from reaching its military peak relative to the U.S. That said, invading Taiwan now would be a mistake.

China might be at least 10 years away in perpetuity if the US makes major progress on its Ghost Fleet Overlord program. And don't forget U.S. has strong allies in Japan, Australia, maybe India in its quest to contain China. China is alone and has a lot of domestic problems that will likely to hamstring its ability to project its military might in a sustained manner.

I don't think China will ever have the "perfect" opportunity to invade Taiwan.

[weatheriscool]

US sails warships through Taiwan Strait in 1st since Pelosi
Source: AP

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — The U.S. Navy sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, in the first such transit publicized since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan earlier in August, at a time when tensions have kept the waterway particularly busy.

The USS Antietam and USS Chancellorsville are conducting a routine transit, the U.S. 7th Fleet said. The cruisers “transited through a corridor in the Strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal State,” the statement said.

China conducted many military exercises in the strait as it sought to punish Taiwan after Pelosi visited the self-ruled island against Beijing’s threats.

China has sent many warships sailing in the Taiwan Strait and waters surrounding Taiwan since Pelosi’s visit, as well as sending warplanes and firing long-range missiles. It views the island as part of its national territory and opposes any visits by foreign governments as recognizing Taiwan as its own state.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china ... position_5