Ukraine War Watch Thread

[caltrek]

No, I am not one of your followers, but this is not about your position on what US does, but on what is done on Americans. Do you know of many people around here celebrating every time a British soldier was shot in NI?, every time a HUMVEE was blown-up in Iraq?, any outrage about it?

It seems that you are tired of one thing and that I am tired of one -different- thing. If we don't provide context about what happens in politics, at war, we may sound like fashion followers.

You make a good point. I would just point out that while Certain Russian was posting here, not too long ago, he also celebrated signs of Russian victory or progress. The one does not justify the other, but it will be difficult to persuade everybody on that point.

[weatheriscool]

Russian missiles kill at least 19 in Ukraine's Odesa region
Source: AP

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian missile attacks on residential areas in a coastal town near the Ukrainian port city of Odesa early Friday killed at least 19 people, authorities reported, a day after Russian forces withdrew from a strategic Black Sea island.

Video of the pre-dawn attack showed the charred remains of buildings in the small town of Serhiivka, located about 50 kilometers (31 miles) southwest of Odesa. The Ukrainian president’s office said three X-22 missiles fired by Russian bombers struck an apartment building and two campsites.

“A terrorist country is killing our people. In response to defeats on the battlefield, they fight civilians,” Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine’s Security Service said 19 people died, including two children. It said another 38, including six children and a pregnant woman, were hospitalized with injuries. Most of the victims were in the apartment building, Ukrainian emergency officials said.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 099597e48e

[funkervogt]

A Russian ice hockey star who signed a million-dollar contract with an American team was rounded up by Russian plain-clothes policemen and taken to an army enlistment office yesterday before he's expected to be sent to fight in Ukraine.

Olympian Ivan Fedotov, 25, was reportedly rushed into Putin's army after he was filmed being detained by a squad of officers outside an ice rink in St Petersburg.

The accusation of 'draft dodging' is seen as revenge for his signing to play for NHL team the Philadelphia Flyers.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -army.html

[funkervogt]

The Russians are learning from their mistakes early in the war.

But Russia has learned from the humiliation by drones in the first months of the invasion. Experts told Insider that the drone wonder weapons are becoming increasingly ineffective because Russia has improved its defense systems and is downing and jamming many of Ukraine's drones.

https://www.businessinsider.com/drones- ... are-2022-7

[Certain Russian user]

3 JULY 2022, THE DAY THAT WILL GO DOWN IN HISTORY.

Statement by Russian Defence Ministry

Today, on July 3, 2022, the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation General of the Army Sergey Shoigu reported to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Federation Armed Forces, V.Putin, on the liberation of the Lugansk People's Republic.

According to the report, the successful operations of the Russian Federation Armed Forces in coordination with the units of People's Militia of the Lugansk People's Republic, have resulted in establishing the total control in Lisichansk and various nearby settlements; the largest of them are Belogorovka, Novodruzhesk, Maloryazantsevo and Belaya Gora. The total area of the settlements liberated over the past 24 hours is 182 square kilometres.

[Certain Russian user]

^^^ My note: Severodonetsk was officially liberated at 25 June and I really didn't expect for Lysychansk to fall THAT fast. The city is large enough and I expected at least few weeks of resistance, not few days.

Good sign. Very good. And now It's time for a musical break:

[wjfox]

Not "liberated", but "illegally invaded, destroyed, and occupied."

The vast majority of UN member states won't recognise your claim.

Russia is the most hated country on earth right now.

[Certain Russian user]

Russia is the most hated country on earth right now.

1) Statistics are against you. Not "on earth", only in the West. But even there, being hated sincerely and passionately only in England, Poland and those three dwarf Baltic states. Other words, nothing new.

2) Believe me or not, but I (like a vast majority of our people) no longer care.

[Time_Traveller]

Not "liberated", but "illegally invaded, destroyed, and occupied."

The vast majority of UN member states won't recognise your claim.

Russia is the most hated country on earth right now.

Agreed, Russia is the most hated country on earth now and when Putin the dictator falls the world will become better off.

[joe00uk]

Highlighted in yellow: the Real Countries™ of the world

[caltrek]

^^^I am not sure what the point of this map is supposed to be.

What I came here to post:

Ukraine Situation Report: U.S. Confirms NASAMS Air Defense System Transfer
by Thomas Newdick
July 1, 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) The latest round of U.S. military aid for Ukraine, valued at $820 million, was announced today and includes confirmation, for the first time, that the country will receive the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, or NASAMS. The Kyiv will be given two examples of the ground-based air defense system, which it has been campaigning for now for several months, as it seeks to bolster its ability to counter Russian air operations and cruise missile strikes.

NASAMS, as you can all about in our recent piece here, should provide a significant advance over the man-portable weapons that have constituted the bulk of the ground-based air defense systems provided to Kyiv since the war began. It’s also far more modern than Ukraine's Soviet-era short and medium-range air defense systems. With just two systems being provided, initially at least, it's likely at least one of them will be used for the local defense of Kyiv.

Interestingly, the statement from the Pentagon says, In particular, that the DoD “recognizes Norway’s cooperation to enable the historic provision by the United States of modern air defense systems that will help Ukraine defend against Russia’s brutal air attacks.” While NASAMS was developed in conjunction with Norway, this strongly suggests that the systems in question might be from Norwegian stocks. They could comprise first-generation NASAMS, now retired from service, or the more modern NASAMS 2 or 3, both of which are in use.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... -transfer

caltrek’s comment: I suppose that I should reiterate that my preference is for a negotiated settlement between the warring parties. It is sad to see hatred for Ukraine overwhelming past feelings of Ukrainians being “our” people.

[caltrek]

Meet the Shadowy Ukrainian Unit That Sabotages Targets Inside Russia
by Howard Altman
July 1, 2022

Introduction:

(The War Zone) Sometimes they cross the border by helicopter. Other times, by foot.

But the objective is always the same, says the head of a shadowy Ukraine special operations group known as the Shaman Battalion.

Give the Russians a taste of what Ukrainians have been experiencing since 2014. And especially since Feb. 24.

“You might have heard about the missiles strike at the shopping mall recently,” the man who goes by the callsign 'Shaman' told The War Zone in an exclusive interview Thursday morning. “You've definitely heard about Bucha. You've heard about the missile strike at the railway station with refugees at Kramatorsk. I wish all these special ops actions would happen on Russian soil now. Because I want them to know the feeling that they give to the people of Ukraine.”

Speaking through an interpreter via Zoom, Shaman, the leader of the eponymous group, said the battalion is doing its part to make that happen.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... de-russia

[Lorem Ipsum]

^^^I am not sure what the point of this map is supposed to be.

Countries that sanctioned Russia

[Certain Russian user]

Initially didn't noticed:

The Russians are learning from their mistakes early in the war.

IMHO neglecting drones was the wrong conclusion from Syrian campaign: all the drones used there against Russian army were routinely shot down and did almost no harm. Conclusion: drones are scary only for those who do not have the normal (modern) air defense.

The main initial mistake was not about drones, but about the general course of the campaign: no one expected (for purely political reasons) the serious resistance. The decisiveness and ISIS-like cruelty of the AFU was an unpleasant surprise (for example, no one really expected them to put their guns in schools and hospitals and use their own population as human shield and/or hostages). Then, it took several weeks for Russia's clumsy military-bureaucratic machine to recognize the new reality and switch to some "Plan B". The West interpreted this pause (mid-march - mid-april) as "imminent Russia's defeat". You can see this in this very forum: the collective enthusiastic masturbation to "already almost guarantied" Ukrainian victory started as early as second or third day of war and faded away (with no any orgasm) sometime in April-May. Although some, the most stubborn, are still trying...

As for drones, yes, they are very useful as "means of objective control" tied to artillery, and their job is often posted in telegram: the most spectacular (for my taste) were the Ukrainian soldiers in the fetal position at the bottom of their trenches and looking up in fear. And then - BOOOM - and nothing...

[Certain Russian user]

It is sad to see hatred for Ukraine overwhelming past feelings of Ukrainians being “our” people.

In old forum I spent literally years explaining who are "our" people in Ukraine and who are not at all our. It's sad you didn't noticed.

Anyway, here is a good analogy: imagine you have an enemy. He's just an enemy, nothing more and nothing less. You can calmly calculate how to get rid of this enemy (by making him your friend or, if not possible, in more radical way), but this all is purely technical issue and doesn't involve any personal feelings. Traitor is worse than just enemy, there is already a room for feelings (very unkind). And when this traitor is not just traitor, but your own brother...

[funkervogt]

The Russian government will be able to compel businesses to supply the military with goods and make their employees work overtime under two laws to support Moscow's war in Ukraine that were approved in an initial vote in parliament on Tuesday.

The measures will effectively place Russia on a war economy footing, nearly 19 weeks into the invasion which it describes as a "special military operation".

"The load on the defence industry has increased significantly. In order to guarantee the supply of weapons and ammunition, it is necessary to optimize the work of the military-industrial complex and enterprises that are part of cooperation chains," Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/duma-gives-f ... 07418.html

[Time_Traveller]

It is sad to see hatred for Ukraine overwhelming past feelings of Ukrainians being “our” people.

In old forum I spent literally years explaining who are "our" people in Ukraine and who are not at all our. It's sad you didn't noticed.

Anyway, here is a good analogy: imagine you have an enemy. He's just an enemy, nothing more and nothing less. You can calmly calculate how to get rid of this enemy (by making him your friend or, if not possible, in more radical way), but this all is purely technical issue and doesn't involve any personal feelings. Traitor is worse than just enemy, there is already a room for feelings (very unkind). And when this traitor is not just traitor, but your own brother...

So your you saying that Ukraine can't be independent from Russia and where as Putin is stuck in the past and wants to live in a so-called new soviet union under him. I would think ex-soviet states would disagree with that.

[Time_Traveller]

HIMAR system: The new US weapon being used by Ukraine against Russian targets

Tuesday 5 July 2022

Increasing number of pictures are appearing on Ukrainian social media showing a US-made rocket launcher being used against Russian targets.

At the start of June, the US Department of Defence said it would be sending four HIMAR systems to Ukraine to help the country defend itself from attack.

It said Ukrainian soldiers would be trained on it first, which would take about three weeks.

In the last few days, there have been a number of social media posts from Ukrainian military sources that have showed the HIMARS in action in the country, reportedly targeting forces from Russia.

One shows vehicles travelling along a road purportedly in southern-eastern Zaporizhzhia region and then the system in use, launching a volley of missiles into a twilit night, was put out by the official account of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

https://news.sky.com/story/himar-system ... s-12646263

[Time_Traveller]

[caltrek]

Initially didn't noticed:

The Russians are learning from their mistakes early in the war.

IMHO neglecting drones was the wrong conclusion from Syrian campaign: all the drones used there against Russian army were routinely shot down and did almost no harm. Conclusion: drones are scary only for those who do not have the normal (modern) air defense.

The main initial mistake was not about drones, but about the general course of the campaign: no one expected (for purely political reasons) the serious resistance. The decisiveness and ISIS-like cruelty of the AFU was an unpleasant surprise (for example, no one really expected them to put their guns in schools and hospitals and use their own population as human shield and/or hostages). Then, it took several weeks for Russia's clumsy military-bureaucratic machine to recognize the new reality and switch to some "Plan B". The West interpreted this pause (mid-march - mid-april) as "imminent Russia's defeat". You can see this in this very forum: the collective enthusiastic masturbation to "already almost guarantied" Ukrainian victory started as early as second or third day of war and faded away (with no any orgasm) sometime in April-May. Although some, the most stubborn, are still trying...

As for drones, yes, they are very useful as "means of objective control" tied to artillery, and their job is often posted in telegram: the most spectacular (for my taste) were the Ukrainian soldiers in the fetal position at the bottom of their trenches and looking up in fear. And then - BOOOM - and nothing...

This is such an endorsement of Russian propaganda talking points it would be funny were not the consequences of this mentality so tragic. There is little to no using "their own population as human shield/or hostages." What there is a lot of is apparently targeting of civilian population centers, and then twisting the news around to make it sound as if it is somehow the fault of Ukrainians. Now, a lot of that is based on reliance of sources that I trust, so I am sure you will shrug it all off as "Western propaganda" despite the fact that some of these reporting sources are also highly critical of U.S. actions in other countries.

As for reports of the Russian military's imminent demise, I have personally made no such predictions, so I don't feel any need to comment on that further.

I also don't really recall reading very much about use of drones.