Ukraine War Watch Thread

[caltrek]

It is sad to see hatred for Ukraine overwhelming past feelings of Ukrainians being “our” people.

In old forum I spent literally years explaining who are "our" people in Ukraine and who are not at all our. It's sad you didn't noticed.

Anyway, here is a good analogy: imagine you have an enemy. He's just an enemy, nothing more and nothing less. You can calmly calculate how to get rid of this enemy (by making him your friend or, if not possible, in more radical way), but this all is purely technical issue and doesn't involve any personal feelings. Traitor is worse than just enemy, there is already a room for feelings (very unkind). And when this traitor is not just traitor, but your own brother...

Just defining "them" as an "enemy" that may need to be dealt with "in (a) more radical way" is essentially an act of hatred. Ditto calling them a "traitor."
Only a mentality that argues that complete subservience to Putin is required to demonstrate "loyalty" could come up with such a warped argument.

I suppose one may argue that complete indifference to suffering is different from hatred, but the end result is the same if you are supporting the aggression of Russia in these circumstances.

[caltrek]

Given some people's willingness to accept the characterization of Ukrainian's resistance as "terrorist," I suppose next the French resistance to the Nazi invasion in World War II will also now be referred to as "terrorist."

[funkervogt]

Emerging on that battlefield is a new form of warfare combining both old and high-tech weapons: UAVs for surveillance and targeting, electronic warfare platforms to jam them, modern missiles for long-range strikes and perhaps most important of all, massive use of unguided artillery shells largely unchanged since World War Two. At present, that plays to Russia’s strengths -- and alarms NATO states who worried they lack the stockpiles to fight such a conflict in any wider war against the Kremlin.

According to the Royal United Service Institute, the imbalance is vast. Russia is currently firing approximately 20,000 152 mm artillery shells per day compared to Ukraine's 6,000, with an even greater advantage when it comes to long-range rockets. Aside from the United States, few NATO nations could sustain that weight of fire for more than a few days.

While Russia is reported running short of microchips and components for its newer missiles, RUSI analysts believe its vast Soviet-era stockpiles of these more old-fashioned but lethal shells could sustain its war for several years while exhausting Ukraine and Western allies.

Russian electronic warfare has also reportedly become more capable against Ukrainian drones, making it harder for Ukraine to identify and strike targets with its own artillery. Russian targeting remains often poor – but it is still getting its own limited number of drones over the battlefield, allowing it to find targets for both artery and long-range missiles.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/colu ... 00440.html

[Xyls]

Ukrainian counter-offensive is now intensifying towards Kherson. And the Russian front lines are beginning to crack.



This war is now going to come down to two likely decisive battles in the coming weeks.

1) Battle of Kherson - Ukraine is going to attempt to retake the city. Ukraine is also starting to get significantly superior artillery systems from the West which are going to inflect major damage on the Russians. If the Ukrainians take the city they will be able to get their river crossing and apply massive pressure on the Russian land corridor they have tentatively established with Crimea. This will be a hugely symbollic, moral and geopolitical victory and will likely result in a partisan uprising in occupied Zaporizhizia and Kherson. Russia will have to decide whether to send whatever weak reinforcements they are getting at this point to try to reinforce Kherson or if they are going to try to get Donbass.

2) Battles of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk - This is going to be the decisive battle of the Donbass Campaign. If the Ukrainians can hold this long enough to allow Kherson and the south to fall then they likely will turn the war decisively against the Russia. Right now the Russians are exhausted after Sivierodonetsk. I personally think the Ukrainians stayed there a little too long and lost a few too many soldiers. But this may end up being worthwhile if it delays pressures on Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, The Ukrainians are going to have major defensive lines here which they have been establishing and they have a much more defensible position here. And as superior Western artillery arrives they are going to be able to go toe-to-toe against Russia and probably gain the initiative. Russia is very exhausted at the moment.

Big decision for Ukraine as to where this advanced artillery should be directed. Towards the Kherson front, or Donbass.

[weatheriscool]

Putin to Ukraine: Russia has barely started its action
Source: Associated Press

...Speaking at a meeting with leaders of the Kremlin-controlled parliament, Putin accused Western allies of fueling the hostilities, charging that “the West wants to fight us until the last Ukrainian.”

“It’s a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, but it looks like it’s heading in that direction,” he added.

“Everybody should know that largely speaking, we haven’t even yet started anything in earnest,” Putin said in a menacing note.

He declared that Russia remains ready to sit down for talks to end the fighting, adding that “those who refuse to do so should know that the longer it lasts the more difficult it will be for them to make a deal with us.”

“We are hearing that they want to defeat us on the battlefield,” Putin said. “Let them try.”...

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 126db78c5a

[ibm9000]

Yes,
Boudicca was a terrorist,
G. Washington was a terrorist,
the Spanish guerrillas were terrorist,
the IRA -1916- were terrorist,
anybody fighting an occupation government is a terrorist,
the IRA are terrorists
and
Osama Bin Laden was a terrorist,
-provided with weapons and money by the US Government, but let's forget that-
and we -Western Democracies, but not only- love terrorists; "our" terrorists, as much as we love dictators, "our son of a bitch".

Question...
Ukraine is sending 10.000 recruits to UK to get basic training, the U. Army does not have enough troops to train its own recruits?

[funkervogt]

New UN report finds that Ukrainian troops sometimes use human shields, leading to civilian casualties.

Two weeks after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February, Kremlin-backed rebels assaulted a nursing home in the eastern region of Luhansk. Dozens of elderly and disabled patients, many of them bedridden, were trapped inside without water or electricity.

The March 11 assault set off a fire that spread throughout the facility, suffocating people who couldn’t move. A small number of patients and staff escaped and fled into a nearby forest, finally getting assistance after walking for 5 kilometers (3 miles).

In a war awash in atrocities, the attack on the nursing home near the village of Stara Krasnyanka stood out for its cruelty. Ukrainian authorities placed the fault squarely on Russian forces, accusing them of killing more than 50 vulnerable civilians in a brutal and unprovoked attack.

But a new U.N. report has found that Ukraine’s armed forces bear a large, and perhaps equal, share of the blame for what happened in Stara Krasnyanka, which is about 580 kilometers (360 miles) southeast of Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. A few days before the attack, Ukrainian soldiers took up positions inside the nursing home, effectively making the building a target.

...The Associated Press and the PBS series “Frontline,” drawing from a variety of sources, have independently documented hundreds of attacks across Ukraine that likely constitute war crimes. The vast majority of them appear to have been committed by Russia. But a handful, including the destruction of the Stara Krasnyanka care home, indicates Ukrainian fighters are also to blame.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/un-says-ukra ... 54667.html

[caltrek]

America’s Top Anti-War Think Tank Is Fracturing Over Ukraine
by Dan Spinelli and Dan Friedman
July 8, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) Two prominent figures have resigned in protest from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft—one of the only major think tanks to promote a skeptical view of US power and military interventionism. In announcing their departures, Joe Cirincione and Paul Eaton criticized the organization’s dovish response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“They take this indefensible, morally bankrupt position on Ukraine,” Cirincione said in an interview Thursday with Mother Jones. “This is clearly an unprovoked invasion, and somehow Quincy keeps justifying it.”

Cirincione, who was until recently a “distinguished non-resident fellow” at Quincy, tweeted news of his resignation on Thursday, citing the institute’s “position on the Ukraine War” as his reason. Formerly the head of the Ploughshares Fund, an influential grant-giving foundation in the small progressive foreign policy world, Cirincione helped raise money for Quincy in its early days and connected it with key donors. But Ukraine proved to be his breaking point.

In articles posted online and in media appearances, other Quincy experts have called for the Biden administration to press Ukraine to reach a peace deal that allows Russia to keep some of the territory it has seized, arguing the alternative is a prolonged war and increased risk of direct conflict between the United States and Russia. That position has little public backing from prominent Democrats in Washington, who support the administration’s efforts to aid Ukraine’s military.

In an interview Thursday night, Cirincione said he “fundamentally” disagrees with Quincy experts who “completely ignore the dangers and the horrors of Russia’s invasion and occupation and focus almost exclusively on criticism of the United States, NATO, and Ukraine.”

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics ... -ukraine/

[caltrek]

Ukraine Situation Report: 3,000 155mm NATO Artillery Rounds Being Fired a Day
by Stetson Paine
July , 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) A senior defense official told reporters in a background briefing on Friday that Ukrainian forces are firing some 3,000 155mm shells per day at Russian forces.

The revelation came amid questioning on the latest tranche of weapons and ammunition being sent to Ukraine, including, for the first time 1,000 guided 155mm 'smart' shells.

The official said despite the high usage rate, Ukrainian forces still have “substantial stores” of 155mm rounds and are far from running out with more rounds on the way. The U.S. and NATO allies have donated hundreds of thousands of 155mm rounds to Ukraine.

“We’ve supplied it, other countries have supplied that,” the official said. “... We know what their use rate is, we know what their store rate is, and we're monitoring that as we continue to supply them capabilities.”

Footage from Friday showed a Ukrainian PzH-2000 self-propelled howitzer crew firing 155mm rounds every eight seconds in combat near the frontline.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone ... ed-a-day

[caltrek]

U.S. Says Russia’s Prized Kerch Bridge Is A Fair Target For Ukrainian Forces
by Emma Helfrich
July 8, 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) Days after Russian forces were spotted preparing the Kerch Strait Bridge — which connects mainland Russia to Crimea — for missile attacks, statements made by U.S. defense officials signaled that the prized piece of Russian infrastructure is a fair target in their minds. The acknowledgment, however, doesn’t change the fact that the Ukrainian military still doesn’t possess a weapon with a range long enough to strike the bridge from within unoccupied territory.

At a press briefing held this morning, The War Zone asked a senior U.S. official whether or not there were any preclusions about the use of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, in Ukraine against certain targets. Speaking to reporters on the condition of anonymity, the official responded by saying that they couldn’t reveal any further information about specific targets, but that “Russian forces’ capabilities and logistics nodes within Ukraine are absolutely fair targets.” The War Zone followed up, asking if there were any hesitations about using the HIMARs against the Kerch Bridge. The official responded as follows.

“As I said, there aren't any preclusions that I'm aware of on Ukrainians fighting on their sovereign territory against Russia.”

In so many words, the response suggests that carrying out such an attack with U.S. weaponry would be up to the discretion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces currently defending the country from Russian invaders. As such, if a standoff missile attack were to be launched from Ukrainian waters or soil and strike the Kerch Bridge, it seems clear the United States wouldn’t object. Remember, Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and the U.S. does not recognize it as belonging to Russia. However, as strategic and symbolic as striking the Kerch Bridge would be, Ukraine simply doesn’t have the right arsenal for that at present. What they do have, though, seems to be having an effect on the Russian military nonetheless.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone ... ed-a-day

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine: 15 dead in rocket attack on apartment building
Source: AP

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — At least 15 people were killed when a Russian rocket hit an apartment building in the eastern Ukraine town of Chasiv Yar and more than 20 people may still be trapped in the rubble, officials said Sunday.

The Saturday night rocket assault is the latest in a recent burst of high-casualty attacks on civilian structures. At least 19 people died when a Russian missile hit a shopping mall in the city of Kremenchuk in late June and 21 people were killed when an apartment building and recreation area came under rocket fire in the southern Odesa region this month.

Russia has repeatedly claimed that it is hitting only targets of military value in the war. There was no comment on Chasiv Yar at a Russian Defense Ministry briefing on Sunday.

Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of the Donetsk region that includes Chasiv Yar, said the town of of about 12,000 was hit by Uragan rockets, which are fired from truck-borne systems.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 81fe71926a

[caltrek]

Yes,
Boudicca was a terrorist,
G. Washington was a terrorist,
the Spanish guerrillas were terrorist,
the IRA -1916- were terrorist,
anybody fighting an occupation government is a terrorist,
the IRA are terrorists
and
Osama Bin Laden was a terrorist,
-provided with weapons and money by the US Government, but let's forget that-
and we -Western Democracies, but not only- love terrorists; "our" terrorists, as much as we love dictators, "our son of a bitch".

Question...
Ukraine is sending 10.000 recruits to UK to get basic training, the U. Army does not have enough troops to train its own recruits?

I looked up the definition of terrorist:

a person who uses unlawful violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims.

While all that you cite used "unlawful violence" I am not sure that George Washington or the Spanish guerrillas targeted civilians. I tend to use the word in the tight manner of applying unlawful violence against civilians, as opposed to strictly military personnel.

[weatheriscool]

Ukrainian rocket strike targets Russian ammunition depot
Source: AP

By MARIA GRAZIA MURRU

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — A Russian ammunition depot was apparently targeted by Ukrainian forces overnight, resulting in a massive blast captured on social media.

The Ukrainian military’s southern command said the rocket strike targeted the depot in Russian-held Nova Kakhovka, about 35 miles (55 kilometers) east of the important Black Sea port city of Kherson, which is also occupied by Russian forces.

Video on social media showed a massive explosion. The nature of the strike suggested that Ukrainian forces used U.S-supplied multiple-launch High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, to strike the area.

Russia’s Tass news agency offered a different account, saying that the target was a mineral fertilizer storage facility that exploded, and that a market, hospital and houses were damaged. Some of the ingredients in fertilizer can be used for ammunition.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 95611900d3

[ibm9000]

I tend to use

"Collaborationists", do you consider them civilians?
If you target a general and kill a hundred civilians, "collateral damage" and all good?
Your "tend" is too aseptic unless you are in a fantasy world.

(Yes, they did, in the Spanish case they were proud of killing "afrancesados" (French-friendly Spaniards)).

[caltrek]

I tend to use

"Collaborationists", do you consider them civilians?
If you target a general and kill a hundred civilians, "collateral damage" and all good?
Your "tend" is too aseptic unless you are in a fantasy world.

(Yes, they did, in the Spanish case they were proud of killing "afrancesados" (French-friendly Spaniards)).

Collaborationists as civilian?

Depends on the circumstances. If such "collaborationists" take up arms, engage in sabotage, etc. then I suppose a case can be made that they are actually combatants. If they merely feed and give medical assistance to the wounded and simply live in proximity to armed personnel, then no I would not think that such forms of "collaboration" qualify them as military combatants.

"Collateral damage" and deliberate targeting of civilians are two different concepts. Sure, there may be cases where the overlap is so great that it is difficult if not impossible to distinguish the two, but that is not true in all cases.

I am not even sure what era you are talking about in "the Spanish case" so I will not comment on that further.

I have read that in the case of the French resistance, an example that I cited earlier, that they took great pains in the targeting of military combatants to make sure that civilian family members were not present.

Another example might be the African National Congress. Although they targeted "civilian" infrastructure, Mandela insisted that they take great pains to avoid injury or killing people.

So, there are forms of violent resistance which are not "terrorist" in intent.

"Tend" is an appropriate word because the world is full of grey. In language, we often try to distill abstractions that are a little bit more "aseptic" in nature.

[funkervogt]

Russia is doing systematic mass deportations of Ukrainians from Ukraine to distant parts of Russia.

Estimates from a variety of sources, including the Russian government, indicate that Russian authorities have interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens, including 260,000 children, from their homes to Russia – often to isolated regions in the Far East.  Moscow’s actions appear pre-meditated and draw immediate historical comparisons to Russian “filtration” operations in Chechnya and other areas. President Putin’s “filtration” operations are separating families, confiscating Ukrainian passports, and issuing Russian passports in an apparent effort to change the demographic makeup of parts of Ukraine.

https://www.state.gov/russias-filtratio ... -citizens/

[weatheriscool]

Officials: Russian missiles kill at least 21 in Ukraine
Source: AP

By MARIA GRAZIA MURRU and HANNA ARHIROVA

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian missiles that struck a city in central Ukraine killed at least 21 people and wounded about more than 100 Thursday, Ukrainian authorities said. Ukraine’s president alleged the attack deliberately targeted civilians in locations without military value.

Ukraine’s national police said three missiles hit an office building and damaged nearby residential buildings in Vinnytsia, which is located 268 kilometers (167 miles) southwest of the capital, Kyiv. The Ukrainian Emergency Service said 42 were missing after the airstrike.

A Russian submarine in the Black Sea fired Kalibr cruise missiles at the city, and three children were among the dead, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

Russia hasn’t officially confirmed the strike. But Margarita Simonyan, head of the state-controlled Russian television network RT, said on her messaging app channel that military officials told her a building in Vinnytsia was targeted because it housed Ukrainian “Nazis.”

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 361e5ed7ec

[ibm9000]

Collaborationists as civilian?

They are civilians, unless you want to declare them "enemy combatants" or they want to declare you enemy combatant.

Depends on the circumstances

. Yours or mine?

...two different concepts.

Once you are dead, how much does you family care about the concept?

Spanish case.

You seem to think that The American War of Independence and The Peninsular War were "clean" wars. There is no such thing as a clean war.

I have read...

Yes, I read that about the IRA too, even if, maybe, the British Government disagrees.

Intentions, intent?

You are still in a fantasy world -like our Russian friend-, you are dead, what is the difference.

I do agree with "grey", but it looks like you are trying to turn certain actions into "white". Mind, actions, dead, you can get a lot of unicorns and
rainbows with language.

[ibm9000]

Anybody knows if Biden is going to send the Attorney General to Afghanistan to help them prosecute those crimes committed by the SAS?
How many forensic teams is the EU sending to Afghanistan?
Or is it, again, that they are "war crimes" unless we or our cronies did it?
Yes, it feels great to see how our moral standards work.

[caltrek]

Collaborationists as civilian?

They are civilians, unless you want to declare them "enemy combatants" or they want to declare you enemy combatant.

Reasonable

...two different concepts.

Once you are dead, how much does you family care about the concept?

One such concept may result in a greater number of deaths.

Spanish case.

You seem to think that The American War of Independence and The Peninsular War were "clean" wars. There is no such thing as a clean war.

No, all wars are dirty. That is the reason they should not be indulged in for light and transient reasons

Intentions, intent?

You are still in a fantasy world -like our Russian friend-, you are dead, what is the difference.

Again, the importance of counting the number of corpses. Also, some people believe that there are things for which it is worth dying. Establishing limits beyond which tyrants will not be allowed to operate, for example. (With depriving tyrants of any power at all being a good outcome).

I do agree with "grey", but it looks like you are trying to turn certain actions into "white". Mind, actions, dead, you can get a lot of unicorns and
rainbows with language.

One thing that I am trying to avoid in the use of language is the type of thinking that leads to false equivalencies. Things like "acting in self-defense" is equivalent to "genocide."