Don’t be So Sure that Republicans Will Win the Senate
by Thomas F. Harrison
June 29, 2022
Introduction:
BOSTON (Courthouse News) — Expectations that Republicans will win control of the U.S. Senate in November, like the apocryphal reports of Mark Twain’s death, may have been greatly exaggerated.
Republicans face an uphill battle and could very easily lose seats, despite political winds in their favor with President Biden’s approval rating hovering near 40% and as many as three-quarters of Americans telling pollsters that the country is on the wrong track.
“Right now I’d say the Democrats are very slightly favored” to hold the Senate, said David Niven, who teaches American politics at the University of Cincinnati.
“Based on the fundamentals, you’d rather have the Republicans’ hand this year, but when you look at it race by race, the Democrats are not in bad shape,” agreed Stephen Medvic, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College.
This is due to the peculiarity of which seats are in play this year, some key Republican retirements, and the fact that the GOP has repeatedly followed its 2016 playbook at the state level and nominated celebrity political neophytes rather than proven vote-getters.
Pennsylvania Senate Hopeful Mehmet Oz has 'Gone Dark' Since Winning the GOP Nomination by David Badash
July 7, 2022
Introduction:
(Alternet) Since just days after winning the Republican nomination for a U.S. Senate seat from Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz has “gone dark,” disappearing from television airwaves.
“This is not the general election kickoff in a pivotal Senate race that Republicans were hoping for,” Politico reports, as Lt. Governor John Fetterman, who won the Democratic nomination for that Senate seat, “burnishes his brand on TV as a political outsider, and paints Oz as a carpetbagger from New Jersey.”
Further Extract:
And it’s angering grassroots Republican operatives.
Dr. Oz “came in a distant third in my county, so I called them up and said, ‘You need to talk to our people to change their mind and our mind and I’ll help you do that,’” Huntingdon County Republican Party chair Arnie McClure told Politico. “And I don’t even hear back. What the hell?”
…
“Oz’s unfavorable rating is 50 percent, while 28 percent view him favorably, according to the Suffolk poll. Fetterman’s favorable-unfavorable rating, by contrast, is 45-27. The same survey showed Fetterman ahead of Oz in a head-to-head race by nine points.”
How Arizona’s Gubernatorial Race Became an 'Emerging Proxy Fight' Between Trump and Governor Doug Ducey by Alex Henderson
July 12, 2022
Introduction:
(Alternet) Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey is among the conservative Republicans who former President Donald Trump angrily turned against following the 2020 presidential election. Ducey’s cardinal sin, in Trump’s mind, was refusing to go along with Big Lie and acknowledging that President Joe Biden won the state fairly.
The tension between Trump and Ducey, who Trump slams as a RINO (Republican In Name Only) remain. And according to Politico reporter Alex Isenstadt, that tension is playing out in Arizona’s 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary.
In an article published by Politico on July 12, Isenstadt describes the primary as an “emerging proxy fight between” Trump and Ducey. The two-term Arizona governor, who is term-limited, has endorsed wealthy GOP donor Karrin Taylor Robson, while Trump has endorsed the ultra-MAGA Kari Lake — a far-right “Stop the Steal” extremist and conspiracy theorist along the lines of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado. Lake is campaigning on the Big Lie and falsely claims that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump — a thoroughly debunked claim that even former U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr has described as “bullshit.”
“The primary is the latest point of contention between Trump and Ducey,” Isenstadt explains. “The former president has repeatedly assailed the Arizona governor for refusing to overturn the 2020 election outcome in Arizona, which President Joe Biden won narrowly. After the election, Ducey was famously seen putting the former president to voicemail while signing papers certifying Biden’s victory.”
Republican Lisa Murkowski Has an Unlikely Source of Support by Alex Henderson
July 18, 2022
Introduction:
(Alternet) In Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski is facing a primary challenge from far-right MAGA Republican Kelly Tshibaka, who former President Donald Trump is supporting. Murkowski, conservative but not far right, is often attacked as a RINO (Republican in Name Only) in Trump World. Yet among more traditional conservatives, she has a reputation for being someone who can get things done with Democrats — not unlike the late Sen. John McCain. And according to Politico reporter Burgess Everett, some of the people supporting Murkowski’s reelection campaign are Democrats and their allies.
“Jeanne Shaheen offered to campaign for her,” Everett explains in an article published by Politico
( https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/ ... -00046159 ) on July 18. “Angus King directed money to her. And Mark Warner’s open to endorsing her whenever it helps most. No, she’s not a Democrat. She’s Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.”
Sen. Angus King of Maine, technically, isn’t a Democrat; he’s an independent. But the centrist senator often caucuses with Democrats, and he generally gets along with moderate Republicans as well — including Murkowski and Sen. Susan Collins, Maine’s other senator.
Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii is one of the Democrats who is hoping that Murkowski wins her primary in Alaska. Schatz told Politico, “I don’t want to get Lisa in trouble.… Lisa is one of my very favorite Republicans, and if the Republican Party were comprised of center-right people like her, the country would be much better off. She’s a friend. And I think it would be a loss for Alaska if she were no longer serving in the Senate.”
caltrek wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:25 pm How Arizona’s Gubernatorial Race Became an 'Emerging Proxy Fight' Between Trump and Governor Doug Ducey by Alex Henderson
July 12, 2022
Pence Endorses Rival of Trump-Backed Candidate in Arizona Governor's Race by Erin Doherty
July 18, 2022
Introduction:
(Axios) Former Vice President Mike Pence publicly backed Karrin Taylor Robson in Arizona's Republican gubernatorial primary on Monday, going against former President Trump's endorsement.
Why it matters: Pence's endorsement underscores the growing divide within the GOP between the establishment wing of the party and the former president, AP reports.
Driving the news: Pence is expected to campaign with Robson, a housing developer, on Friday — the same day that Trump is set to hold a rally for former TV news anchor Kari Lake.
• The winner of the Aug. 2 Republican primary will likely become the state's next governor, Axios' Jessica Boehm reports.
• Pence said Robson is "the only candidate for governor that will keep Arizona’s border secure and streets safe, empower parents and create great schools and promote conservative values."
Trump wins proxy war with Hogan in Maryland primary -- boosted by Democrats
Source: Politico
Democrats and Republicans are shaping the future of their parties in Maryland Tuesday, as they choose their nominees for governor and for a pair of key congressional seats outside Washington.
A crowded field of Democrats emerged to try to win the governorship and succeed popular (and term-limited) Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, whose impending departure has made the usually blue state one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities this year. And on the Republican side, state Del. Dan Cox won the party’s nomination, a win for former President Donald Trump in a proxy war with the outgoing governor.
Further down the ballot, Republicans picked their nominee for a contest that could give the party their best shot in years at clawing back another House seat in Maryland. And a Democratic primary in a deep-blue district has turned into one of the most expensive contests of the election.
It is likely that the winners of several critical contests won’t be known on Tuesday night. State law prevents election officials from counting mail ballots until Thursday, and they could be decisive. As of Monday, nearly 169,000 Democrats have returned a mail ballot, while 38,000 Republicans have done the same. (Ballots that are either returned in dropboxes by close of polls Tuesday night or postmarked by the USPS by Tuesday will also be counted.)
In Race to Fill Missouri’s Senate Seat, Both Parties’ Voters Face Crowded Fields by Joe Harris
July 23, 2022
Introduction:
ST. LOUIS (Courthouse News) — Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, or rejection, could prove to be the tipping point for Missouri Republicans hoping to replace the retiring U.S. Senator Roy Blunt.
Former Governor Eric Greitens, U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler and Attorney General Eric Schmitt are the clear frontrunners among the GOP’s 21 options. Polls from Real Clear Politics and 538.com have consistently shown Greitens and Hartzler at 26% apiece, with Schmidt at 25% of the vote.
“It’s an absolute dead heat,” said Kenneth Warren, a political scientist at St. Louis University, in a phone interview.
Further extracts:
An endorsement has yet to come from Trump, but he did take the unique step of publicly rebuking Hartzler in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, on July 8.
On the Democratic side, Trudy Busch Valentine and Lucas Kunce are the clear frontrunners in a field of 11 candidates. Both frontrunners are trying to capture what they hope is a pro-abortion rights voting block, energized and angered by the overturn of Roe.
Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
Source: Newsweek
For the first time, political polling website FiveThirtyEight shows the Democrats with an edge in the race for the U.S. Senate in November.
The website late on Tuesday showed the Democrats were due to win 51 out of 100 seats, while the Republicans are slated to win 49.
There had been consensus for a long time that the Republicans will win back the Senate this fall, buoyed by high inflation and economic downturn under Democrat Joe Biden's presidency.
...
The website's Senate forecast has changed since it began polling in early June. Back then, the Democrats were only predicted to win 40 seats, with the Republicans winning a comfortable majority of 60. Since then, the Democrats have grown in popularity and now for the first time have overtaken the Republicans, and are on course to keep the Senate.
Mandela Barnes Is Now the Clear Favorite to Face Off Against Ron Johnson in Wisconsin by Eamon Whalen
July 28, 2022
Introduction:
(Mother Jones) It’s looking all but certain that Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes will be the Democratic opponent to take on the much-maligned Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson in November. This week, two of Barnes’ main rivals dropped out ahead of the August 9th primary, clearing the path for the 35-year-old Milwaukee native. Barnes has already secured the endorsement of Senator Bernie Sanders and campaigned last weekend alongside Senator Elizabeth Warren. The race between Barnes and Johnson will be among a few set to determine which party controls the Senate.
Barnes has been a rising star in Wisconsin politics for the last decade. He was elected as a State Representative in 2012 and then joined Governor Tony Evers’ campaign to oust Scott Walker in 2018, becoming Lieutenant Governor at 31. He is only the second Black elected official in statewide office in Wisconsin’s history.
Conclusion:
All that’s left between Barnes and the nomination is the State Treasurer Kate Godlewski. As of late June, she was still polling in the single digits, but her campaign has said that she’s been “surging,” and recently boasted that she was the only candidate pulling ahead of Johnson in prospective polls. Barnes, on the other hand, released an internal poll yesterday showing him at 39 percent, Lasry at 25 percent and Godlewski at 12 percent.
With (former opponents Tom) Nelson and (Alex) Lasry’s endorsements, it looks like close to a sure bet that Mandela Barnes will face Ron Johnson in November, giving Wisconsin voters as clear of a contrast of candidates and priorities as any race in the nation.
