Russia Watch Thread

[Time_Traveller]

UK, US, Japan And Canada To Up Sanctions And Ban Russia Gold Imports

June 26, 2022

LONDON: Britain, the United States, Japan and Canada will ban new imports of Russian gold as part of efforts to tighten the sanctions squeeze on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, the British government said on Sunday.
The ban will come into force shortly and apply to newly mined or refined gold, the government statement said ahead of a meeting of Group of Seven leaders in Germany on Sunday.

The move will not affect previously exported Russian-origin gold, it added.

Russian gold exports were worth 12.6 billion pounds ($15.45 billion) last year and wealthy Russians have recently been buying bullion to reduce the financial impact of Western sanctions, the government said.

"The measures we have announced today will directly hit Russian oligarchs and strike at the heart of Putin's war machine," Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in the statement.

"We need to starve the Putin regime of its funding. The UK and our allies are doing just that."

https://www.ndtv.com/business/uk-u-s-ja ... ts-3101405

[weatheriscool]

Russia Defaults on Foreign Debt for First Time Since 1918

Source: Bloomberg

Russia defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.

For months, the country found paths around the penalties imposed after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. But at the end of the day on Sunday, the grace period on about $100 million of snared interest payments due May 27 expired, a deadline considered an event of default if missed.

It’s a grim marker in the country’s rapid transformation into an economic, financial and political outcast. The nation’s eurobonds have traded at distressed levels since the start of March, the central bank’s foreign reserves remain frozen, and the biggest banks are severed from the global financial system.

But given the damage already done to the economy and markets, the default is also mostly symbolic for now, and matters little to Russians dealing with double-digit inflation and the worst economic contraction in years.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-business

[caltrek]

Kremlin tightens control Over Russians’ Online Lives
by Stanislav Budnitsky
June 30 , 2022

Introduction:

(The Conversation) Since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine in late February 2022, Russian internet users have experienced what has been dubbed the descent of a “digital iron curtain.”

Russian authorities blocked access to all major opposition news sites, as well as Facebook, Instagram and Twitter. Under the new draconian laws purporting to combat fake news about the Russian-Ukrainian war, internet users have faced administrative and criminal charges for allegedly spreading online disinformation about Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Most Western technology companies, from Airbnb to Apple, have stopped or limited their Russian operations as part of the broader corporate exodus from the country.

Many Russians downloaded virtual private network software to try to access blocked sites and services in the first weeks of the war. By late April, 23% of Russian internet users reported using VPNs with varying regularity. The state media watchdog, Roskomnadzor, has been blocking VPNs to prevent people from bypassing government censorship and stepped up its efforts in June 2022.

Although the speed and scale of the wartime internet crackdown are unprecedented, its legal, technical and rhetorical foundations were put in place during the preceding decade under the banner of digital sovereignty.

Digital sovereignty for nations is the exercise of state power within national borders over digital processes like the flow of online data and content, surveillance and privacy, and the production of digital technologies. Under authoritarian regimes like today’s Russia, digital sovereignty often serves as a veil for stymieing domestic dissent.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/kremlin-ti ... et-182020

[caltrek]

Putin’s Propaganda is Rooted in Russian History – and That’s Why It Works
by Dr. Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager and Evgeniya Pyatovskaya
June 30 , 2022

Extract:

(The Conversation) The appeal of Putin’s propaganda is its repetition. It draws from similar kinds of disinformation used during Russia’s imperial and Soviet eras that recycle age-old narratives of the evil West.

Putin’s popularity is skyrocketing, with 83% of people reporting in the latest estimates in April 2022 that they support their leader. Most Russians also support the Ukraine war.

As scholars of critical cultural and international studies, we think that Putin’s popularity and the widespread impact of his propaganda are not accidental. Putin gives Russians what they have been missing since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 – a surge of national pride.
…
Putin was also someone who Russians could look to as “one of us.”
…
Today, Putin’s popularity cult is also tied to the idea of reanimating Russia’s past to reinstate the country’s greatness. This desire to rebuild Russia as an image of its past justifies Putin’s waging a war on Ukraine and the country’s ongoing political and economic confrontations with the West.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/putins-pro ... ks-184197

[Time_Traveller]

Uber hired oligarch-linked Russian lobbyist despite bribery fears

Mon 11 Jul 2022 12.00 BST

Uber secretly hired a political operative linked to Russian oligarchs in an attempt to buy influence in the country, despite concerns that paying the lobbyist risked bribes being paid to “grease the skids”.

The deal was part of a concerted effort by the Silicon Valley company to court several billionaires as well as top state officials allegedly aligned with Vladimir Putin in an attempt to secure its place in the Russian market.

Uber’s previously unknown lobbying campaign in Russia is laid bare in the Uber files, a leak of more than 124,000 documents to the Guardian. They reveal how in 2015-16 Uber tried to secure influence at the highest levels of the Russian state by approaching oligarchs said to have close ties to the Kremlin and encouraging them to invest in the company.

But it is the arrangement with Vladimir Senin – an influential lobbyist at the time and now a pro-Kremlin member of the state Duma – that could prove most damaging to Uber. Multiple former US prosecutors and corruption experts said the circumstances in which Uber hired Senin in 2016 should have raised “red flags” and risked breaching US anti-bribery laws.

Uber accepted it had hired Senin and paid him hundreds of thousands of dollars, but said it did not believe there was any violation of the law. Referring to his ties to Putin, a company spokesperson said: “We certainly would not engage with Mr Senin or others like him today.”

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/j ... bery-fears

[Time_Traveller]

Call Vladimir Putin 'ruler' rather than 'president', say Russian leader's Kremlin allies

Monday 11 July 2022 10:55, UK

Loyalists to Russian leader Vladimir Putin have said he should be referred to as 'ruler' rather than 'president'.

Russia is said to be looking at substituting words and terms which it believes came from the West in moves it feels are necessary following the invasion of Ukraine earlier this year.

The Kremlin has said the proposal to call the Russian president a ruler is a "new idea" but it has "no position on the matter".

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) - seen as traditionally loyal to the Kremlin - said considering the renaming of the presidential term is "important".

The press service of the LDPR in the lower house of the Russian parliament told the Tass news agency: "Although constitutional amendments are not on the current agenda, we still insist that it is important to call the country's main post in Russia.

https://news.sky.com/story/call-vladimi ... s-12649839

Hmm, isn't that another word for Dictator?

[Vakanai]

Call Vladimir Putin 'ruler' rather than 'president', say Russian leader's Kremlin allies

Monday 11 July 2022 10:55, UK

Loyalists to Russian leader Vladimir Putin have said he should be referred to as 'ruler' rather than 'president'.

Russia is said to be looking at substituting words and terms which it believes came from the West in moves it feels are necessary following the invasion of Ukraine earlier this year.

The Kremlin has said the proposal to call the Russian president a ruler is a "new idea" but it has "no position on the matter".

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) - seen as traditionally loyal to the Kremlin - said considering the renaming of the presidential term is "important".

The press service of the LDPR in the lower house of the Russian parliament told the Tass news agency: "Although constitutional amendments are not on the current agenda, we still insist that it is important to call the country's main post in Russia.

https://news.sky.com/story/call-vladimi ... s-12649839

Hmm, isn't that another word for Dictator?

It is. And it's more honest of his actual position in the country. Dude's never been a president, but a fascist dictator from the word go.

[funkervogt]

CIA Director says there's no evidence Putin has health problems.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62246914

[weatheriscool]

Latest Russian submarine is the longest ever and may carry nuclear torpedo
Source: CNN

Russia launches the longest and maybe deadliest submarine after a long delay.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/23/europe/r ... index.html

[caltrek]

West Labels Russia a Fascist Menace, but Some Experts Say That’s Wrong and Damaging
by Cain Burdeau
August 3, 2022

Conclusion:

(Courthouse News) Until now, Russians have not shown to be fanatical about the war, for example with rallies and parades, and attempts to force society to show its support for the war “have been manufactured in a pretty poor, Soviet-inspired manner,” Laruelle wrote.

“Moreover, while youth support is a central component of any fascist regime, in Russia, the youth are the most unreliable part of the population from the regime’s point of view, and the least supportive of the war,” she argued.

She cited surveys of Russians that find most people see the conflict “as a geopolitical struggle with the West” and that there is not any “particular enthusiasm for the more cultural, political, and genocidal aims of liquidating Ukraine’s statehood and nationhood.”

But with the war at danger of becoming prolonged and Russia facing ever more difficulties, Laruelle warned the Russian regime “has a real risk of shifting toward this kind of mobilization of society, and this totally utopian vision of the future.”

She wrote that a rise in paramilitary groups inside Russia – which have been cultivated by Putin's regime – “would constitute compelling evidence that the Russian state apparatus is becoming fascist.”

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/west-la ... damaging/

caltrek: While at first glance, the title would seem to contradict what I have been arguing, I think the conclusion is in line with my argument. Prior to the war, Putin was a tyrant, but not really of the full-scale totalitarian type. In mobilizing for the war and against what might otherwise be potential opposition, the system is becoming more totalitarian, and thus more fascist. At least, a Russian form of fascism derived from extreme Russian nationalism as opposed to extreme German or extreme Italian nationalism.

[funkervogt]

Russia's central bank predicts the country's economy will contract this year and in 2023. This is due to the Western sanctions, and probably to a lesser extent, to the direct costs of fighting in Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/russian ... forecasts/

[weatheriscool]

Russia's economy contracts sharply as war and sanctions take hold.
Source: New York Times

The Russian economy contracted steeply in the second quarter as the economic consequences of its war in Ukraine took hold.

The economy shrank 4 percent from April through June compared with a year ago, the Russian statistics agency said on Friday. It is the first quarterly gross domestic product report to fully capture the change in the economy since the invasion of Ukraine in February, when Western sanctions shut Russia off from much of the global financial system, and many countries severed trading relationships with Moscow.

It was also a sharp reversal from the first quarter, when the economy rose 3.5 percent.

Even as imports to Russia dried up and financial transactions were blocked to the extent that the country was forced to default on its foreign debt, the Russian economy has proved more resilient than some economists initially expected. But analysts expect the economic toll to grow heavier as Western nations increasingly turn away from Russian oil and gas, critical sources of export revenue.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/12/busi ... y-gdp.html

[erowind]

.

[caltrek]

New Study Reviews the Influence of Organized Crime and the Wealthy Over Russian Foreign Policy
August 15, 2022

Introduction:

(EurekAlert) Russian foreign policy-making is often guided by elites, intermediaries, private companies, and organised crime groups rather than the national interest, a new study shows.

Identifying and tracing Russian illicit financial flows is very difficult due to the politicised nature of authoritarian legal systems and data gaps. Being able to “follow the money” is hard because there is minimal formal regulation or oversight.

Researchers mapped the malign Russian practices via a literature review of existing studies on overseas practices by those connected with the Kremlin. This allowed them to categorise different types of influence which created conditions friendly to illicit financial flows. This included political activities, which blur formal and informal means of diplomacy and political influencing to promote Russia-friendly candidates and political parties; media activities, which blur truth and falsehood by constructing and disseminating narratives painting Russia and pro-Russia actors in a positive light; and political violence, which blurs legitimate and illegitimate use of force to secure investment projects, destabilise regions and undermine or eliminate opposition.

The research was conducted by Catherine Owen and Tom Mayne from the University of Exeter and Tena Prelec from the University of Oxford and University of Rijeka. It was carried out as part of the Serious Organised Crime & Anti-Corruption Evidence (SOC ACE) research programme, which is funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO).

Dr Owen said: “It is virtually impossible to disentangle the relationship between Russian foreign policy and Russian illicit financial flows since Russian foreign policy has a strong illicit financial – or kleptocratic – element.

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/961866

Here is a link to the published 27-page study (plus related notes): https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/documents ... eport.pdf

[funkervogt]

The size of Russia's ongoing "brain drain" is impossible to accurately estimate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/realized ... 00135.html

[Xyls]

Daughter of Putin ally Alexander Dugin killed in car bomb in Moscow – reports


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ow-reports

Love that for them. Couldn't have happened to nicer people.

[Certain Russian user]

Daughter of Putin ally Alexander Dugin killed in car bomb in Moscow

Love that for them. Couldn't have happened to nicer people.

In a way, I'm even glad. I am glad that the enemies of my country, of my people, of all that dear to me - nearly all of them are like that sick person I quoted. If these were people with conscience and dignity, it would have embarrassed me. Fortunately, they are just a bunch of wiggling and giggling petty daemons can not hold their joy from successful terrorist attack and the death of young woman.

[wjfox]

Daughter of Putin ally Alexander Dugin killed in car bomb in Moscow

Love that for them. Couldn't have happened to nicer people.

In a way, I'm even glad. I am glad that the enemies of my country, of my people, of all that dear to me - nearly all of them are like that sick person I quoted. If these were people with conscience and dignity, it would have embarrassed me. Fortunately, they are just a bunch of wiggling and giggling petty daemons can not hold their joy from successful terrorist attack and the death of young woman.

This could have been avoided. Maybe don't illegally invade sovereign countries? Oh, and don't be a genocide-advocating fascist. Just a thought.

[funkervogt]

Daughter of Putin ally Alexander Dugin killed in car bomb in Moscow – reports


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ow-reports

Love that for them. Couldn't have happened to nicer people.

I checked out that Twitter video. Some say that her words ("Ukrainians are not humans. They all deserve to die.") were mistranslated, and she was actually only speaking about the Azov Battalion, which is known to have many Neo-Nazi members.

I don't speak Russian, so I can understand Dugina's words.

[funkervogt]

The economic toll of the Ukraine War and the West's sanctions is high in Russia, but not nearly as bad as many predicted it would be.

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's economy has avoided the meltdown many predicted after Moscow sent its forces into Ukraine six months ago, with higher prices for its oil exports cushioning the impact of Western sanctions, but hardships are emerging for some Russians.

After predicting at one point that the economy would shrink more than 12% this year, exceeding the falls in output seen after the Soviet Union collapsed and during the 1998 financial crisis, the economy ministry now expects a 4.2% contraction.

High global energy prices have helped the Kremlin follow through on President Vladimir Putin's pledge in March to reduce poverty and inequality despite crippling Western sanctions and inflation. Some economists have compared the situation to the COVID-19 pandemic, when authorities increased payments for those most vulnerable to the crisis.

"So far, there are no signs that the drop in living standards could lead to unrest," said Alexei Firsov, founder of social studies think tank Platforma.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/meltdown-ave ... 59034.html

In other news, the Euro just sunk below the value of the U.S. dollar due to fears of an impending recession in Europe, and the inflation rate in the U.K. is 18.6%. The economic situation is better in the U.S., but still not great, and I can attest that average people here are starting to lose interest in the Ukraine War.

Putin's strategy to wear down the West in an economic war of attrition might work.