Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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ibm9000 wrote: Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:38 am
I am not a mind reader...
Yes, you are. Every time you say that "I imply" that is exactly what you are doing. What do you know about me?, you've got an impression based on a few posts, that's all.
Yes, but...
No, that is what you imply based on your experience, on your opinion, on your knowledge. You do not know what -if- I imply. Use your imagination to create a second implication, then a third and then explain to yourself why the second is valid but not the third. You create the implication you want, the one you like, that one you are comfortable with.
I don't need to know what is going on in your mind to know that something is being implied. Implication comes from language itself. Language often has latent meanings of which the user may not even be aware. A constructed sentence may imply something not even intended by the writer. Scientific advances sometimes occur that way. It is therefore proper to say that "your statement implies" even in the absence of intent.

I have had the experience of people confessing things to me after I raised questions that they took as a realization that I was on to them. In actual fact, I had no intent to reveal something of which I was genuinely ignorant. Yet, the logic I exhibited in my questioning elicited a confession.

I also had the experience of working with an attorney while drafting an ordinance. The attorney informed me that the language I used could be interpreted in a way that I did not intend, and therefore need to be changed.
First you can't remember...
I don't have to remember, it has been written down. I haven't seen you telling us about your tears ("years" in the post) for her, you forgot to answer that one? This is a forum, I will give my opinion about what I want, I will answer what I want, as you do.
Because of your use of the word "years" instead of "tears". Hence my admonition regarding proof reading.

Loss of any life is a tragedy. Often experienced as such by the families involved. I did not endorse or support the manner in which this story was presented..."couldn't have happened to" was actually something I privately groaned about, as in thanks (sarcastically speaking) for given Certain Russian a propaganda opening.

Still, the victim did exhibit what at least has been interpreted as a fascist ideology. Her father is also suspected of providing a theoretical framework for Putin to justify Russian aggressions.
Did I sign any agreement to answer every question?, are you going to invade my home if you don't get what you want? Flip a coin, if you just want that y/n, flip a coin, is going to be as relevant.
Look. I am giving you an opportunity to explain yourself. I am also trying to make some points in logic. If you do not want to take that opportunity, it is no skin off my teeth. Certainly not worthy enough to harass you in your personal life.

At any rate, it seems to have produced a desirable response:
Yes, I do understand that to maintain a conversation we need some answers and more questions about then. Hopefully, you understand this is a forum, not a thesis and I am not here to humour you.
Exactly. On this point we agree.
An argument -opinions here- is valid on its own merit.
So, any evidence presented contrary to your opinion is therefore easily rejected because it is contrary to your opinion. So, now who is guilty of confirmation bias?
Explaining my reasons is irrelevant -and I don't have to if you graciously allow me; us?-, what I believe -really unfortunate word you used-, my weight, the colour of my skin carry little wight; none, actually. It is valid or not, how many likes it got and if you like it is irrelevant.
In the sense of what may be motivating you, perhaps. But as a foundation of your opinion. it is critical.
There are two options -(The enemy will take the fourth)- the government is going to make no comment or deny. I expect the "I dindn't do it", because that is what they do, that is why the reference to the R. Warrior. The statement itself is irrelevant, the government is not going to acknowledge a terrorist attack; unless you are the US government but then you call it something else.
It is not irrelevant. Ther is the possibility of taking credit, as terrorist organizations often do in such circumstances. There is also the possibility of a "no comment." Moreover, that they actively deny involvement is a counterargument to accusations that they are to blame. Could they be lying in their denial?

Of course.

Could Russia be lying about their claimed evidence of Ukrainian government involvement?

Of course.

To quote one and ignore the claims of the other is to exhibit bias. Possibly motivated by personal bias related to identity and life experience.
There is a possibility of lying, there is also the possibility of telling the truth.
Such wisdom says a lot about... the credulity of everybody around here?
Oh yes, that there are alternate possibilities and that they are acknowledged says a "lot about...the credulity of everybody around here" :roll:

Ok, I did leave the question mark off for the sake of emphasis.
Zelensky is an idiot.
Two days after the invasion, meaningful negotiations should have been started. After the fall of Mariupol, that was a great opportunity for meaningful negotiations, Russia won a victory but it had to pay for it. Russia has the winning hand -if you care to look at the map-, Zelensky has to use his card, he has to start negotiating so US and Turkey and whoever can start offering trinkets.

The story goes that, after the failed counterattack they called von Runsted about what to do: Make peace, you idiots!
Make peace, you idiot! This is my statement, this is my opinion. Do I imply Putin is smart?: whatever you want, honey. All the implications are yours, not mine.
I have no comments on this at this time. In my monitoring of news stories, I will keep this thesis in mind. Not to disprove it. Not to prove it. Simply for the sake of accurate historical understanding.
(If you want me to use more words, you have been using far to many words to say just that).
Because I have not come to that conclusion. Therefore, I used a more generic less wordy formulation. The fountain of words spouted forth in trying to clarify your meaning. See also above.

Edit: Made to more clearly indicate that I was quoting ibm9000
Last edited by caltrek on Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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So, any evidence presented contrary to your opinion is...
Have you been smoking?
An argument is valid on its own merit: a counterargument is valid on its own merit.
Still, the victim did exhibit...
You are saying that the victim of a terrorist attack was not a nice person.
Whitewashing certain acts, as usual.

(Blame the victim is something you learn from that attorney?)
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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I think I missed this one...
To your credit, you have also been critical of Certain Russian's pro-government comments, but...
The point is been critical of certain post?, not of over-simplistic/(stupid)/false post, but those of a certain colour?
Well, if I want more "likes" -credit?-, I know what to do.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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On the military front:

Nothing. The usual killing goes on, the non-offensive goes on, the grinding goes on and the bridge completely demolished. I mean, it has been hit "everyday" for... how long now?


And this... is whitewashing too:
TASHKENT, August 24. /TASS/. The Russian army deliberately slowed down its advance in the special military operation in Ukraine in order to reduce civilian casualties, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said at a meeting...
or a government official statement.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

ibm9000 wrote: Wed Aug 24, 2022 8:54 am
So, any evidence presented contrary to your opinion is...
Have you been smoking?
An argument is valid on its own merit: a counterargument is valid on its own merit.
Hey, if you don't believe in evidence, then that is not my problem
Still, the victim did exhibit...
You are saying that the victim of a terrorist attack was not a nice person.
Whitewashing certain acts, as usual.

(Blame the victim is something you learn from that attorney?)
Fascists are "victims"?

To point out that there is evidence that they were fascists is "whitewashing"?

So, all those people who remember the holocaust are "whitewashing history."?

Your use of the English language is positively Orwellian.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Zelenskiy vows to restore Ukrainian rule in Russia-annexed Crimea
Source: Reuters
KYIV, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed on Tuesday to restore Ukrainian rule over Russia-annexed Crimea, a move that he said would help re-establish "world law and order".

He told an international conference on Crimea that regaining control of the peninsula - seized and annexed by Russia in 2014 in a move not recognised by most other countries - would be the "biggest anti-war step".

"It all began with Crimea, and it will end with Crimea," Zelenskiy said in an opening address to the Crimea Platform, a forum that seeks to restore Ukraine's territorial integrity and end Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Calling for victory over Russia, he said: "It is necessary to liberate Crimea from occupation ... This will be the resuscitation of world law and order."
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ze ... 022-08-23/
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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At least 22 killed in Russian strike on rail station on Ukraine's independence day
Source: The Guardian
At least 22 people have been killed and 50 wounded in a Russian rocket strike on a Ukrainian railway station, as the country marked six months since Moscow’s invasion on a sombre independence day overshadowed by warnings of further “brutal” attacks.

Addressing the UN late on Wednesday, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the rockets struck a train in a station in the town of Chaplyne, about 145km (90 miles) west of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

“Rescuers are working, but, unfortunately, the death toll could increase,” Zelenskiy said.

An 11-year-old child died in the attack, said Kirill Timoshenko, deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential administration, in a message on his Telegram channel.
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ndence-day
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

Putin has ordered the Russian army to expand by 13%, or 137,000 men, by the end of this year. This is certainly meant to make up for the country's losses sustained so far in Ukraine (at least 15,000 dead and some multiple of that permanently put out of action by injury), plus those expected to be lost during the next four months.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... e1ba8b60fe
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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This is certainly meant to...
I would say probably, they are going to need a lot of troops to garrison the new territories... and US kept sending NG units to Iraq, right?
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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ibm9000 wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:19 am
This is certainly meant to...
I would say probably, they are going to need a lot of troops to garrison the new territories... and US kept sending NG units to Iraq, right?
They need 137,000 more men to garrison newly occupied areas that Putin has claimed are pro-Russian or "actually Russians"?
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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No...

The want or need 137.000 men in the armed forces. If you deploy one battalion -let's say 700 guys- you need more than those 700 soldiers... and they go on holidays too.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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They don't want or cannot call NG units -and I am not sure what they use and where-, they just "realized" they need a bigger army and a bigger army is more expensive. If they want to carry out something else... they don't have that many units ready; this is not the Red Army -Russian and Ukrainian- from WW2 and this is not that war.
I do remember reading that Iraq and Afghanistan were creating some personnel difficulties...
Crimea was "neat" and quick. No, I don't think they planned for this, it's more expensive; they did not carry out airstrikes for a month, it is more expensive.
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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What's the Hope for Peace in Ukraine Six Months After Russian Invasion?
by Anatol Lieven
August 26, 2022

Introduction:
(Common Dreams) Six months after Russia invaded Ukraine, the war has apparently settled into a stalemate. The front line has hardly moved in two months.

Casualties on both sides have been immense. In a fashion almost reminiscent of the First World War, recent advances in military technology have greatly strengthened the power of the defensive, while weakening the massed armored forces backed by airpower that in the generations after 1939 were responsible for "Blitzkrieg" style offensive victories. Hand-held anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, together with mobile artillery and drones, are now masters of the battlefield, and cause frightful losses to tanks, armored personnel carriers, ground attack aircraft and helicopters.

Nor does it seem likely that this picture is likely to change much in the foreseeable future. The factors that have worked against Russia will do the same to Ukrainian forces if they launch mass offensives. At most, Ukraine might recapture Kherson, by cutting Russian lines of supply over the Dnieper river. Russia might take the whole of the Donetsk region, thereby achieving one of the key stated goals of the original invasion; but it seems extremely unlikely that either side can gain a complete victory.

The biggest risk to Ukraine is probably that they launch an offensive that fails badly with losses so heavy that this allows Russia to launch a successful counter-offensive. Even in this case however, the gains are likely to only be limited.

It is important to remember how very unexpected this is. Before the war, both Russia and the West expected a quick Russian victory. Western diplomats fled from Kiev. Analysts predicted a Russian occupation of the whole of Ukraine, and a Ukrainian government in exile.
After further interesting discussion, the article concludes with a call for a negotiated settlement.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/views/202 ... -invasion
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Nearly 700 Civilians Killed or Wounded by Cluster Munitions So Far in Ukraine War
by Julia Conley
August 25, 2022

Introduction:
(Common Dreams) Six months into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, nearly 700 civilians in the former Soviet state have been killed or injured by the Russian military's cluster munitions, and the bombs have heavily damaged residential areas—posing an ongoing threat to those who live there long after the munitions are dropped.

The Cluster Munition Monitor 2022, released Thursday by the Cluster Munition Coaltion, reveals that Ukraine is the only country where new cluster munition attacks were reported in the first half of 2022, but Russia's use of the weapons has so far left an estimated 215 people dead and 474 injured.
The report covers the use of cluster munitions during all of 2021 and through the first half of this year. In 2021, children accounted for two-thirds of cluster munition casualties in which the age of the victim was recorded.

"The immediate and long-term suffering that cluster munitions cause civilians make their use today in Ukraine unconscionable as well as invariably unlawful," said Mary Wareham, arms advocacy director at Human Rights Watch, a member of the Cluster Munition Coalition.
Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... raine-war

For the lengthy Cluster Munition Monitor 2022 report: https://assets.nationbuilder.com/handi ... 1661418133

caltrek’s comment: For the skeptics of such things, I suppose I should note that the coalition is apparently financed through contributions from a fairly large number of governments, not including the United States or the Ukraine.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Casualties on both sides have been immense.
Like 50.000 casualties in one day?, like WWI? Maybe he should be talking about 1973 instead of 1939... the shield/spear discussion is an old one and it is still going on. I am more than a bit skeptic about his expertise.


And, nothing to do with the above...
(CNN)The Pentagon announced a new plan of action Thursday which it says will help reduce the number of civilians killed and injured by US military operations, particularly drone strikes, and better deal with the aftermath of such incidents.

The US military has been criticized for years for killing civilians in drone strikes but came under increased scrutiny after the military conducted a botched strike during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan last August that killed 10 civilians, seven of them children.
The department also faced criticism over a 2019 airstrike in Syria that killed multiple civilians. The military acknowledged the deaths in that strike in November 2021, after the New York Times reported them. The department ultimately held no one accountable for the 2019 strike.
It is not saying we are not going to kill "innocent people" -so not fascists, we declare somebody fascist and we can kill her whenever we want; we can declare her enemy combatant too, I guess- just that we will try to kill less of them.
In Vietnam, there was a study from the Rand Corporation saying something like... if we could kill less civilians, the survivors would -obviously?- join the government side.

The Human Race always moving forward.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

Another sign of Russia's diminishing military resources: Russia has probably transferred an S-300 antiaircraft defense system from Syria to Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r ... -black-sea
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Another sign of Russia's diminishing military resources:
Wishful thinking?
How many of them do they have?, how active has it been in Syria lately?, do they need one in Syria?, do they need that one there? It seems that we read what we want... and then it says "probably".

Our Russian Friend is not telling new Fairy Tales, I cannot make comments on them... in case somebody didn't notice.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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U.S. Accelerating HIMARS Production to Help Ukraine: Pentagon Official

By Khaleda Rahman On 8/28/22

The U.S. is accelerating production of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, in order to help Ukraine, a Pentagon official has said.

Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition William LaPlante made the comments after visiting Lockheed Martin facilities in Camden, Arkansas that produce HIMARS and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS), according to a news release from the Department of Defense (DoD).

U.S.-supplied HIMARS have played a crucial role as Ukrainian forces continue to fight off Russia's invasion. Ukraine is "effectively employing" the lightweight mobile launchers and precision-strike munitions produced in the facilities, the DoD release noted on Friday.

"As we continue providing security assistance to Ukraine, we are working with industry to accelerate production of critical weapons and systems," LaPlante said.

"This includes providing funding to buy more equipment, expand production lines, and support additional hiring and workforce development."

https://www.newsweek.com/us-acceleratin ... ia-1737611
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

ibm9000 wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 7:11 am
Another sign of Russia's diminishing military resources:
Wishful thinking?
How many of them do they have?, how active has it been in Syria lately?, do they need one in Syria?, do they need that one there? It seems that we read what we want... and then it says "probably".

Our Russian Friend is not telling new Fairy Tales, I cannot make comments on them... in case somebody didn't notice.
Read the article. The S-300 system was initially given as a gift to Bashar al-Assad. After some time, the Russians retook full control over it, and now it has disappeared from Syria. This is in spite of the fact that the country is still a powder keg, and Russian forces are still there.
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