Ukraine War Watch Thread

[weatheriscool]

It looks like previous reports of Russian troops fleeing in the face of an advancing Ukrainian military may have understated the case:

Ukraine Troops Raise Flag Over Railway Hub as Advance Threatens to Turn Into Rout
September 10, 2022

Introduction:

(Reuters via CNBC) Natalia Popova, adviser to the head of the Kharkiv regional council, shared photos on Facebook of troops holding up a Ukrainian flag in front of Kupiansk city hall. A Russian flag lay at their feet. “Kupiansk is Ukraine. Glory to the armed forces of Ukraine,” she wrote.

In Hrakove, one of dozens of recaptured villages, Reuters journalists saw burnt out vehicles bearing the “Z” symbol of Russia’s invasion, and piles of rubbish and ammunition in positions the Russians had abandoned in evident haste.

“Hello everyone, we are from Russia,” was spray painted on a wall.

Three bodies lay in white body bags in a yard.

The regional chief of police, Volodymyr Tymoshenko, said Ukrainian police had moved in the previous day, and had checked the identities of local residents who had lived under Russian occupation since the invasion’s second day.

Read more here: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/10/ukrain ... rout.html

caltrek’s comment: Oh, that is right. I keep forgetting. CNBC and Reuters are Western news sources and therefore not to be trusted. Silly me.

It is really mindblowing to see how easily russia has been handed its ass by a much smaller country. Maybe in the future russia will think twice before attacking other countries? I believe that Iran or North Korea would put up more of a respectable fight and by far more worthy enemies. Of course, I could be proven wrong.

[caltrek]

The War Zone also has an article on what they are calling a rout with all sorts of Twitter feeds for those of you that are into such things: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r ... nning-rout

[caltrek]

caltrek's comment: I guess even Russian media can't ignore the situation.

[Xyls]

[Xyls]

There needs to be some real questions on the political stability of Russia at this point, and this is the problem. The West not want Russia to collapse, but it is evident Russia is going to lose this war and the legitimacy of the current government in Russia is probably not going to survive.



How that comes undone is the next question.



This whole scenario just seems to be screaming the predictions that George Friedman made in his 2010 book the Next 100 Years. In that book Russia begins to disintegrate in the 2020s as it fails to reconsolidate its former sphere. I very much think this scenario could be coming true. One difference though is in that book it is Poland which is the major problem for Russia, but it appears in reality that it is actually Ukraine which will be its undoing...

[Xyls]

Also it appears Ukrainians may soon advance over the Oskil River and into Luhansk.

[Xyls]

Also some interesting news from Kherson:



It seems that Russia is using artillery barrages to shrink their defensive lines (this is an actual orderly retreat) towards the city which means they are likely to start giving up territory in Kherson before long. This will likely be because they don't have enough artillery to properly cover their current positions.



Not going well!

[caltrek]

It occurs to me that in reviewing the video clips of debates on Russian television supplied by Xyls and myself that Putin has failed on another front. Suppressing all dissent. Protests in the streets may have been shut down through fear and intimidation, but clearly there are elites willing and able to debate in public the wisdom of recent actions. Not exactly a textbook example of a totalitarian country.

[Xyls]

Lol Belarus trying to play cute now...

[Xyls]

Why isn't Russia allowing in these newly minted Russian citizens (collaborators) None the matter they should be captured and prosecuted or their crimes. Which includes betraying and facilitating war crimes against other Ukrainians.



The truth is any goodwill left towards Russia even amongst those who helped betray their own country is going to be gone and Russia is going to emerge from this with no leverage over Ukraine at all. It looks like Luhansk could fall by the end of the month and there are rumors the Ukrainians are relaunching the initiative against Donetsk...

[weatheriscool]

Fresh from seizing Izium, Ukraine appears to push toward more Russian-held territory.
Source: New York Times

KYIV, Ukraine — A day after routing Russian forces in a lightning advance that seized hundreds of square miles and a strategic town in the northeast, Ukraine claimed additional territory on Sunday in an offensive that has swiftly reshaped the battlefield in the nearly 200-day-old war and left Moscow reeling.

Ukraine’s rapid gains in the Kharkiv region have significantly weakened Russia’s hold on eastern Ukraine, which it has used as a stronghold to wage its war since February. Ukrainian officials said on Saturday that their troops had retaken the city of Izium, a strategically important railway hub southeast of Kharkiv that Russian forces seized in the spring after a bloody, weekslong battle.

On Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Ukrainian forces had recaptured Chkalovske, a village in the Kharkiv region that lies roughly halfway between Izium and Kharkiv city. And the Ukrainian military command described continuing combat in cities in the Donetsk region, part of the stretch of mining towns and rolling fields known as Donbas, one of Russia’s main targets of the war.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/11 ... -victories

[ibm9000]

It seems that today (for yesterday) there are no significant actions on the ground.
Apparently, Russia started to consistently hit enemy infrastructure; today, after 6 months.
This has been a victory, but I was reading the second one, after the battle of Kiev. What battle?, the Russians got there, they said they were leaving and they left.

It would be useful to check a few sources before uploading the first thing you see, unless you're trying to sell something.

The current counter-offensive will not end the war. The campaign in northeast Ukraine will eventually culminate, allowing the Russians to re-establish a tenable defensive line and possibly even conduct localized counterattacks. Ukraine will have to launch subsequent counter-offensive operations, likely several, to finish the liberation of Russian-occupied territory. The war remains likely to stretch into 2023.

ISW (via criticalthreats).

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

Deputies in 18 districts ...

Maybe not for the war?, but because it is not going the way they like it?
Patriotism before all.

[erowind]

.

[Xyls]

Russia shrugs off retreat in northeast Ukraine as Putin focuses on economy

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/af ... 022-09-12/

Putin seems to have become totally detached from reality. The collapse is picking up speed as the Ukrainians are now back in Luhansk, and are approaching Severodonetsk which they lost back in June/July and look like they will be retaking it with little resistance. It also appears that the Luhansk People's Republic administration is also beginning to collapse as officials pack up and head for Russia.

https://news.yahoo.com/russians-fleeing ... &tsrc=twtr

This war will be over before Christmas.

[Xyls]

Edit: And another great thread...

[joe00uk]

Yeah... this war isn't going to be over by Christmas fellas, hate to break it to you. Barring a serious change in Russian policy (i.e. actually declaring war and mobilising), the current trajectory of this war is Russian advance followed by Ukrainian advance, back and forth, over and over and over again, until years later, both sides gradually tire of the conflict and start agreeing to ceasefires which start off shaky, but then become longer-lasting over time until that more or less becomes the permanent state of affairs, with continual minor violations which lead nowhere. And also without any formal peace agreement.

[raklian]

[Xyls]

Russian television is now throwing Luhansk and Donetsk under the bus LMAO