Ukraine War Watch Thread

[ibm9000]

...with more than 19 years of military experience

1. Deception is still possible in conflict

Who said it isn't?, when?, where?

2. Precision strikes facilitate depth and produces cascading effects

Yes, and airstrikes, an old story since 1939; and before that too.

3. War remains a continuation of politics

Even an older quote.

So, when Russian conquered everything -a bit more than 2.000km2, I think- south of the Dnipro, what was that?
I don't have "more than 19 years of military experience", but you are giving explanations for 12-years-old.

[caltrek]

So, because the United States.. lower the bar for any and every other nation...

Missing the point again... The bar is that low, why should you raise it for any nation?

Oh, I am sorry, I thought you were arguing from a pacisfists position. I didn't realize you were just apathetic.

The net result of your argument...

Curiously enough, I think that is the result of your argument: We keep the bar that low, we, who are expected (I don't expect any Western Democracy to do it, nor any other government, ever in History) to act according to higher moral standards.

Low expectations leads to poor performance

In addition, this leaves out what Ukrainians...

This makes no sense at all. The Iraqi people were ever "in"?

Ummm...this is a thread about the war in Ukraine. Perhaps you are confused and think it is a thread about the war in Iraq. That would certainly explain your fixation on that historical event. At any rate, if you are so interested in discussing that war, perhaps you should take up my previous suggestion and start a thread in the history section of this forum on that topic. Of course, that would deny you of the excuse to continue in what is now becoming a fanatical form of what-about-ism

If not, then why the obsession with transgressions of the United State in Iraq?

It is an example, a recent and well known example of what civilized nations do.

Fine, yet another good reason to dedicate a thread to that event.

...an unprovoked attack ordered by Putin?

"The Iraqi people, known in the media as "the insurgents," are engaged in lawful resistance to the illegal invasion, regime change, and occupation of their country by U.S. and U.K. forces. Bush’s war in Iraq is a war of aggression. "Aggression is the use of armed force by a state against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Charter of the United Nations, as set out in this definition,” according to General Assembly Resolution 3314, passed in the wake of Vietnam."
(I think this is from a report about the 3rd battle of Fallujah).

Ok fine. Put that in a thread about the war in Iraq. No need to further clutter up this thread

Please demonstrate to me...

"Demonstrate", my lord?. or should I call you "God"?
This is exactly what I am saying. We give opinions here, are you asking everybody to demonstrate everything? You apply certain standards to "some" people.

Fine. I made a request of you. You declined the request. No need to even debate the subject further should you once again resost to yet another what-about-ism. WJ Fox was right. Better to just ignore your future mutterings.

Do you have a textbook definition for that?

dem·on·strate
/ˈdemənˌstrāt/
Learn to pronounce
verb
1.
give a practical exhibition and explanation of (how a machine, skill, or craft works or is performed).
"computerized design methods will be demonstrated"
Similar:
give a demonstration of
show how something is done
show how something works
exhibit
display
show
illustrate
exemplify
give an idea of
2.
clearly show the existence or truth of (something) by giving proof or evidence.
"their shameful silence demonstrates their ineptitude"

Source: https://www.google.com/search?q=demonst ... nt=gws-wiz

To be honest, I rather be a "parrot" than somebody who condones the murder of one woman in a terrorist attack because you fancy to call her 'fascist'. On the other hand, Putin and Bush would agree with you, just changing the 'word', probably.

I didn't "condone" that attack. I guess your command of the English language is such that you still don't understand when you are implying something.

Bush admitted in his 2003 State of the Union address that he had sanctioned summary executions of suspected terrorists.

I have an idea, let's accuse Putin of war crimes, let's accuse him.

Source of citation?

No, forget that, unless you want to start a thread on the war in Iraq.

[Xyls]

Big if true. Recall that Ukraine lost the city after a bitter battle in July. This would imply they are at the gates of Severodonetsk which I believe leaves only Popsana between Luhansk and the Ukrainian army and the front line.



And this isn't the only direction that Ukraine is applying pressure too. It appears they killed almost 200 Russian troops in one HIMARS strike in Svatove today. This is a huge loss for 1 HIMARS strike. Almost equivalent to the Beirut Barracks bombing that everyone in America remembers from the 1980s. This is not a rate of loss of personnel that Russia can replace. If Svatove falls this will close off another rail line to Luhansk from the north, only Starobilsk would remain then between the separatist government in Luhansk and the Ukrainian army, and the only supply line would then be from Millorevo. The Russians would have to move a bunch of their supply lines from Belogrod to keep the LPR supplied. With their lack of supply chain organization I doubt they will be able to achieve this.



Seems like the Ukrainians took the week to regroup. (Probably a good idea.) Doesn't seem like the LPR has been able to re-consolidate it's defences in any coherent way.

My guess is that Lyman will become encircled later this week and that Luhansk will fall by the end of October and the LPR will be knocked out of the war and cease to exist.

[Xyls]

Speaking of Lyman. Looks like Ukraine is moving to surround the Russian forces there. They are likely going to be surrounded and killed/captured if they don't retreat immediately...



Pink below indicates possible territory Russia no longer controls...



Russia heading for another military disaster? I do think.

[caltrek]

...with more than 19 years of military experience

1. Deception is still possible in conflict

Who said it isn't?, when?, where?

In the opening paragraph in which this concept is further discussed in the article I linked it hyperlinks a few sources including:

https://theconversation.com/technology- ... e-176446

This article discusses the highly advanced collection of intelligence data in the current environment. It does not make the argument that deception is not possible, but some readers might infer that argument based on the points made regarding "revolutionizing how intelligence is gathered."

There is also a link to a discussion of "open source" intelligence gathering:

https://theconversation.com/open-source ... ar-179135

Interestingly and probably coincidentally Xls then provides an example of use of open source data to provide an analysis. How successful is his presentation is up to the reader to decide.

2. Precision strikes facilitate depth and produces cascading effects

Yes, and airstrikes, an old story since 1939; and before that too.

So, you agree.

3. War remains a continuation of politics

Even an older quote.

So, when Russian conquered everything -a bit more than 2.000km2, I think- south of the Dnipro, what was that?
I don't have "more than 19 years of military experience", but you are giving explanations for 12-years-old.

Why thank you for the (unintentional?) compliment. I strive to give explanations that can be understood by a wide audience. Even better when hyperlinks are available in which people can explore an issue in more depth. If you have more technical points to make, please feel free to do so.

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

I didn't "condone" that attack. I guess your command of the English language is such that you still don't understand when you are
implying something.

Yes, sure, "language barrier"... good one. I have another language barrier for you...
"We give opinions here, are you asking everybody to demonstrate everything? You apply certain standards to "some" people."

Can you get a textbook definition for this:

"You apply certain standards to "some" people."


Evil is evil. Iraq was evil, Ukraine is evil... but some animals are more equal than others.
We didn't show our outrage for those killings, why do we show it for these ones?, envy that we are not doing the actual killing?

It seems that we are only outraged by "certain" killings, by certain terrorist attacks.

[caltrek]

I didn't "condone" that attack. I guess your command of the English language is such that you still don't understand when you are
implying something.

Yes, sure, "language barrier"... good one. I have another language barrier for you...
"We give opinions here, are you asking everybody to demonstrate everything? You apply certain standards to "some" people."

Can you get a textbook definition for this:

"You apply certain standards to "some" people."


Evil is evil. Iraq was evil, Ukraine is evil... but some animals are more equal than others.

We didn't show our outrage for those killings, why do we show it for these ones?, envy that we are not doing the actual killing?

It seems that we are only outraged by "certain" killings, by certain terrorist attacks.

Look, I expressed all sorts of outrage about the killing of Iraq's people during the Bush ordered attack of that country. For the Nth time, if you want to further discuss that issue then I suggest that you simply start a thread dedicated to that topic. What it "seems" to you is becoming increasingly irrelevant to me or to this discussion.

"Iraq was evil."

The country or the war?

"Ukraine is evil"

The country or the war?

Before the invasion of Iraq, did you express outrage at the sadistic and brutal killing carried out by Sadam Hussien? Did you express outrage at his country's attack on Kuwait?

Ukraine is an imperfect democracy. Hussien was a Stalinist type dictator. What a piece of false equivalency it is to suggest a similarity to the two situations. What a disgrace to suggest that the people of Ukraine should pay for the injustices of anything that was done in Iraq.

You seek the moral high ground, and instead burrow deeper and deeper into a sewer of moral repugnance.

[caltrek]

Ukraine Just Captured Russia’s Most Advanced Operational Tank
by Thomas Newdick
September 19, 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) A fully intact example of Russia’s T-90M tank has been captured by Ukrainian troops, in what’s apparently the first time this top-of-the-line fighting vehicle has been acquired by Kyiv’s forces since Russia's all-out invasion began. Obtaining such an advanced tank is the latest in a long line of intelligence windfalls for the Ukrainians and their NATO allies. There’s a good chance that the captured T-90M — also known as the Proryv-3 (Breakthrough-3) — will ultimately make its way to those NATO allies for intelligence exploitation.

Multiple photos of the exterior and interior of the T-90M have been published on social media, including by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, which stated that the tank was “found in [the] Kharkiv region in perfect condition.”

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... onal-tank

[ibm9000]

If you have more technical points to make, please feel free to do so.

The point is that the "point" is too simplistic.

Let's see, the Ukrainian offensive was great, according to him, but he doesn't compare it with the Russian one; and we don't have information, only propaganda. (When you read about Vietnam, the Yom Kippur, WW2... you get the name of the officer commanding, you identify the unit, its TOE, present for duty, ammo, casualties... We have biased estimates). The Ukrainian generals were all incompetent 6 months ago and now they are all geniuses?, but what about the Russian generals who got to Kiev in two days? and those who conquered everything south from the Dnipro? I think it is biased, from the very beginning all we are -still- trying to sell is Russia-bad/Ukraine-good. Too simplistic, things are always more complicated.

I read that the last coup d'etat in Turkey was stopped thanks to twitter... Well, let's say I have a healthy incredulity about that and about inventing the powder through those links. The war of attrition was invented around Kiev in 2022, now they have invented the Blitzkrieg... too simplistic; when you simplify things, you are easily misleading. If you don't have some previous knowledge, you may believe it just because it sounds like what you want to hear, confirmation bias.

The problem is never lack of information -about the enemy-, is too much -contradictory- information. Every officer through the chain of command is going to select -for whatever the reason, Yom Kippur again- which one is valid and pass that, and only that, to his superiors. Russia knew about the reinforcements around Kharkov -as far as we know- and decided not to take action, as far we know. (Do we know?)

[erowind]

.

[weatheriscool]

Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war
Source: BBC

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he believes Russia's leader is seeking an end to the war he began in Ukraine, and that a "significant step" will be made. He said his impression from recent talks with Vladimir Putin was that he wanted to "end this as soon as possible".

Ukraine has recaptured swathes of its territory this month. The Turkish leader indicated things were "quite problematic" for Russia. Mr Erdogan spoke of having "very extensive discussions" with Mr Putin at a summit in Uzbekistan last week.

In an interview with US broadcaster PBS, the Turkish leader said he gained the impression that the Russian president wanted a speedy end to the war. "He is actually showing me that he's willing to end this as soon as possible," Mr Erdogan said. "That was my impression, because the way things are going right now are quite problematic." He also said 200 "hostages" would soon be exchanged between the two sides. He gave no further detail of who would be included in such a prisoner swap.

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62965993

[weatheriscool]

Russia is struggling to attract new recruits for its army, a U.S. official says.
Source: New York Times

WASHINGTON — Russia is struggling to attract recruits for its army amid its setbacks in Ukraine, while the United States is open to potentially sending Western tanks to Kyiv, a senior U.S. defense official said on Monday.

“The Russians are performing so poorly that the news from Kharkiv Province has inspired many Russian volunteers to refuse combat,” the official said, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the status of Russia’s war in Ukraine, adding that the leader of the Wagner Group, a private military company with ties to the Kremlin, had been seen in videos posted on social media asking Russian prisoners, Tajiks, Belarusians and Armenians to join the fight in Ukraine.

“We believe this is part of Wagner’s campaign to recruit over 1,500 convicted felons,” the official said. “But many are refusing.”

Last week, a video posted online and analyzed by The New York Times showed the Wagner Group promising convicts that they would be released from prison in return for a six-month combat tour in Ukraine. It is unclear when the video was filmed.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/19 ... icial-says

[joe00uk]

Unbelievably dumb graphic (par for the course for "NAFO" cringebots), and could just as easily be turned against pro-Ukraine shills. For example, I could come up with a category for "The Regime Propagandist", who has no critical thought process and blindly accepts whatever happens to be broadcast on CNN or BBC News that day. If the official media says something, it must be true, even when this contradicts what they said a month previously [COVID-19: do not research]. Do not tell them this under any circumstances, however, because they genuinely don't know how to process it. They are perennially terrified of people coming to their own conclusions on controversial issues because the threat is too high that they'll believe something different to what The Government says. They are never able to explain why this is "dangerous" or why their favoured regime deserves unquestioning public trust. For this reason, they have actually descended to a level where "doing your own research" is a sarcastically mocked meme among this type, rather than a basic requirement of informing yourself about current issues. They are religious dogmatists at heart, and would be model citizens in a country like North Korea. Anything that doesn't conform to their paranoid worldview has to be condemned as "white supremacy", or a similar label, even when this is totally irrelevant to the subject under discussion.

[caltrek]

What Happens if the Maniacs Win?
by John Feffer
September 19, 2022

Extract:

(Alternet) Here’s a nightmare scenario: Unable to recruit enough soldiers from the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin takes North Korean leader Kim Jong-un up on his recent offer to send 100,000 North Koreans to join the Russian president’s ill-fated attempt to seize Ukraine. Kim has also promised to send North Korean workers to help rebuild that country’s Donbas region, parts of which Russian forces have destroyed in order to “save” it. Consider this an eerie echo of the fraternal aid that Eastern European Communist states provided Pyongyang in the 1950s after the devastation of the Korean War.

The current love connection between Russia and North Korea is anything but unprecedented. The Kremlin has provided a succession of Kims with military and economic support. If Putin were ultimately to rely on so many North Korean soldiers and laborers, however, it would mark the first time that country had returned the favor in any significant way. As a down payment on the new relationship, Pyongyang is already reportedly assisting Moscow’s war effort with shipments of Soviet-era rockets and ammunition.
…
At a more fundamental level, North Korea and Russia are both exemplars of exceptionalism. From its founding after World War II, North Korea has generally considered itself an exception to any rules governing international conduct. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, meanwhile, has cemented in place Putin’s version of a new Russian exceptionalism, meant to bury once and for all the efforts of Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin to bring the Soviet Union and its successor states into greater compliance with global norms.

Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/09/what- ... iacs-win/

caltrek’s comment: Yes, in anticipation of the knee jerk what-about-ism response, the United States has also on occasion adopted the same sort of exceptionalist line. This has been particularly, although not exclusively, the case when Republicans were in power.

[caltrek]

For this reason, they have actually descended to a level where "doing your own research" is a sarcastically mocked meme among this type, rather than a basic requirement of informing yourself about current issues

Not saying this applies to anybody participating in this forum, but I did have a run in with this type of person. She insisted upon adopting a version of events that largely parroted what to me was obviously the line put forth by Russian propogandists. When I attempted to point that out to her, she asserted the "I have done my own research" line and accused me of simply adopting the Western propaganda line. I started to explain that I don't always follow or agree with any particular government's line, including the United States, but at that point she simply walked away.

I am sorry, but to me that is just classic denialism. No interest in in dialogue. Simply a blind adoption of what is obviously a pack of lies put forth by a highly propagandistic government. Highly comparable to denialism regarding whether smoking is bad for your health, or concerning global climate change.

[joe00uk]

For this reason, they have actually descended to a level where "doing your own research" is a sarcastically mocked meme among this type, rather than a basic requirement of informing yourself about current issues

Not saying this applies to anybody participating in this forum, but I did have a run in with this type of person. She insisted upon adopting a version of events that largely parroted what to me was obviously the line put forth by Russian propogandists. When I attempted to point that out to her, she asserted the "I have done my own research" line and accused me of simply adopting the Western propaganda line. I started to explain that I don't always follow or agree with any particular government's line, including the United States, but at that point she simply walked away.

I am sorry, but to me that is just classic denialism. No interest in in dialogue. Simply a blind adoption of what is obviously a pack of lies put forth by a highly propagandistic government. Highly comparable to denialism regarding whether smoking is bad for your health, or concerning global climate change.

Yeah, the opposite of one bad idea is usually another bad idea. It's obviously silly to just reject one spurious narrative if all you're going to do is uncritically swallow another spurious narrative. The problem with a lot of Western "regime loyalists", as I'll call them, is that any deviation from the Party Line is dismissed as being exactly the same as becoming a total conspiracy theorist (which is often what they end up becoming themselves). And I'm not saying this is true of anyone on this forum, but some of these 'loyalist' types have created a culture in which critical thought is actively discouraged and shamed. Ironically, many of these people call themselves liberal and anti-authoritarian, but all too often what you spend so much time claiming to hate, you eventually imitate.

[Time_Traveller]

What Will ‘Referendums’ in Occupied Ukraine Regions Look Like?
by Mansur Mirovalev
August 11, 2022

Introduction:

(Al Jazeera) Russian-appointed officials say they are planning such processes, but observers say they will lack legitimacy.

Kyiv, Ukraine – The pro-Russian authorities had no choice but to bus in hundreds of “film extras”.

That is how Ivan Fyodorov, the pro-Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol, a city in the Russia-occupied southern region of Zaporizhia, described a rally this week backing an upcoming “referendum” to join Russia.

“They brought ‘film extras’ from other temporarily-occupied areas to Melitopol – 700 people – because they couldn’t even find that many [supporters] among locals,” Fyodorov, who fled the city after it was occupied in early March, wrote on Telegram on Tuesday, using a term that has been a trademark of pro-Kremlin parties and politicians for decades.

Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/ ... look-like

caltrek's comment: This is what happens when a country such as Russia denies that they are planning to launch an invasion shortly before launching an invasion. Many of us simply don't trust them, and therefore conclude that a "referendum" will just be an exercise in futile propaganda that proves nothing.

Update: -

Ukraine war: Occupied areas call urgent vote to join Russia

12 minutes ago

Four areas of Ukraine under Moscow's control have announced plans for urgent so-called referendums on joining Russia, which would pave the way for Russian annexation.

Russia's invasion has stalled in recent months and Ukraine has recaptured swathes of territory in the north-east.

Now Russian-backed officials in the east and south say they want votes on joining Russia starting this week.

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, after a vote drew international condemnation.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Tuesday that "sham 'referendums' will not change anything".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62965998

[andmar74]

Ukraine pushing for victory.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... eat-putin/

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin keeps going from bad to worse in his invasion of Ukraine. From his perspective, the last week has been an unmitigated catastrophe.

Ukraine’s stunning, surprisingly successful Kharkiv offensive has continued rolling on, having already liberated an estimated 3,500 square miles from Russian rule — i.e., more than Delaware and Rhode Island combined. Ukrainian troops are now nearing Luhansk province, which they had lost in July. That makes it increasingly unlikely that Putin will ever achieve even his scaled-down objective of conquering the Donbas region. (Luhansk is one of two provinces that make up Donbas.)

[ibm9000]

Look, I expressed all sorts of outrage...

"You", "me"... nothing personal -apart from that of killing women in terrorist attacks-, it's business. We, the west, the higher moral standards.

ISW does not report on Russian war crimes...

Mind, not on "war crimes", we don't care about war crimes, only about Russian war crimes. ISW is showing off its partiality -specially when you read the updates, where when Ukraine says something is "likely", when Russia says something is "very unlike"-, it is not providing information, it is providing propaganda for one side. Western hypocrisy?

We have plenty of corpses but let's use our imagination... We have 3 dead children: number one was killed in Yemen by Saudi Arabia: collateral damage. Number two was killed in Syria by the UK: a human shield used by the terrorist. Number three was killed by Russia in Syria: a war crime. Let's shuffle the corpses... It is evident which one is a war crime... right?
Do we investigate the dead of every single dead child? No, we don't, we don't care, but we do care about sticking the "right" label. This is the
reality, this is what it is happening, do you want to call it whataboutism?... great, enjoy! I call it hypocrisy, and I find it distasteful, as I find disgusting declaring a victim of a terrorist attack fair game because you use the label "fascist" on her (or not a "victim", some kind of 007?)

I don't think the right way to study History is to completely isolate one event and refuse to relate it to what happened before or to a similar event.
I could use the Roman invasion of Britain... but, for some reason, I don't think it's the best example. My point is western hypocrisy, evident western
hypocrisy I should say, I do have to compare things.

Iraq was evil...

Do you really need this?
(The invasion of) Iraq (and it's consequences) was (an) evil (act).
Well, if you study History ten minutes at a time, maybe you do need it.


On war...

If the only thing Russia is doing is recruiting inmates and volunteer units, that is a recipe for defeat; not defeat like successful Ukrainian offensives, but like Vietnam defeat (or Afghanistan, both and the British one too). 300.000 men and 10 years, not to mention the French colonial war, not enough troops, like in Iraq; Russia has less than 200.000.

The option of getting to Kiev and negotiate was a good one -and conquering the south at the same time-, the frontal/nibbling attack in Donestk/Luhansk was -is- not (and it has been working); not very subtle, anyway. The strategy -for the war- is to wait until the west gets tired? I don't know, do we? I am pretty sure in Washington they have some "Potential course of operations" studies, more or less accurate.
Is Russia aiming at a no-war/no-peace situation? There was no -there is no- overwhelming air campaign, there are not enough troops -on the field; like on so many wars.
All the American generals are a bunch of idiots, they didn't send enough troops: is this simplistic enough?, misleading? (Not to mention the
political guidelines and I am not talking about that rubbish of "fighting with one hand tied behind our backs": it was a colonial war and they were not able to control South Vietnam, invading anything else would have been even worse; and maybe WW3).
Let's give Russia another 100.000 men and 9 years (probably 200.000) and then we talk.

WW2, the Soviet Army... Russians and Ukrainians (and a lot more). I don't know if they are twins, but they went to the same school and the
Armed Forces is a very traditional institution. A lieutenant in the 90's maybe a general now, that is Soviet tradition, on both sides, both generals. I am sure the Ukrainians had courses in the US and UK... how much did they change? Again, I am sure there is a study -previous to the war- about the capabilities of Ukrainian General Staff, I haven't read it, anybody? It was the same -Soviet- army, in 30ish years they are not going to be two worlds
apart. They haven't invented anything and in every war there is a lot of betting, a lot of trial and error.

My point: all a bunch of idiots or all a bunch of geniuses. Kharkov was a good job, Kiev was a good job; if we mention one, why don't we mention the other?