Ukraine War Watch Thread

[wjfox]

^^^ Oh S__t.

That is much higher than the 1 to 2% chance a lot of "forecasters" have been offering. Although 1 to 2% may be overly optimistic, I do think that there is a lot of poker-faced bluffing going on. Neither side really wants an escalated nuclear war. Yet, neither side really wants to back down. It will be like OMG they are really getting serious, to OMG it is really going to happen, to the announcement of a sudden diplomatic breakthrough with face saving conditions for both sides.

Of course, part of the bluffing is the whole "Putin is a mad man" routine. The whole point of the bluff being to frighten and intimidate.

That is why those that oppose capitulation are right. Once you give in to nuclear blackmail, it is never going to end. On the other hand, wise men like Chomksy also have a point, negotiations are much to be desired. As I have earlier expressed, I really don't want to see civilization as we know it end because a "real estate deal" goes bad.

For as much as I haven't replied to everything, trust me I tried but once I spent an hour writing I realized I spent too much time on the forum for the day. It's not like when I was a teenager anymore for better and worse. But for everything I haven't responded to; I mostly mirror your sentiment here. I really don't want to see nuclear war either and that's a big part of why I became more active in this thread lately.

More war doesn't solve this. The time to deescalate is now.

The only thing I disagree on is the giving into nuclear blackmail thing if it implies nuclear retaliation is justified. It's not and never will be. I'd rather Russia, The US, or China let loose their entire arsenals and no one else fires a single shot than retaliate. (This is still awful and must be prevented of course!!!) An exchange of fire will always be worse than just taking the hit for the species, future generations, and ourselves. I don't believe in pacifism broadly but with nuclear weapons it is the only ethical and self-preserving course of action. I would rather live under tyranny to fight another day than destroy the planet for 10s of thousands of years. That said. Our country should be investing however many billions are necessary to build nuclear missile defense capabilities and distributing that equipment to every country that asks for it handedly NATO or not. Nullification and eventual disarmament of nuclear weapons is possible our cultures have simply chosen MAD because they are mad.

Defensive offensive capabilities that are controlled by an international nuclear and weapons of mass destruction enforcement agency would be nice too. Maybe those hypothetical orbital tungsten kinetic bombardment platforms could be put to use. At least until we get our senses together it would be nice if very small yield highly accurate non-radioactive deterrence existed that was capable of precisely knocking out nuclear military installations globally. (This is a complete pipe dream, no international body in this climate will organize this, but maybe one day it could be used on some lagging rouge state. It would have to be headed by a genuinely democratic body like the UN but without the security council.)

There is really no excuse that we're spending over half a trillion dollars on updating nuclear offensive capabilities yet are incapable of intercepting 99% of incoming strikes.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57240

I think I'm beginning to understand your viewpoint a bit better now (full-scale nuclear war should be avoided at all costs), although I still think you aren't critical enough of Russia. Surely you can see that Russia is the aggressor here? The war in Ukraine simply didn't need to happen and is entirely 100% caused by Russia.

And why should Russia feel so threatened by the West? We have never, and would never try to invade or annex their lands. Russia was doing relatively okay until it decided to destroy its economy and reputation.

Did you see Putin's recent speech? It was the rantings of a madman. One guest on BBC News suggested that he needs a psychiatrist!

So I don't quite understand why (elsewhere in this thread) you heap the lion's share of blame on NATO. It has sometimes appeared like you tacitly support Putin, when he's clearly a hostile, evil, megalomaniac and dictator who is ruining countless lives. And it now seems clear that he isn't going to back down – the only way this ends is to defeat him militarily, drive Russia out of Ukraine, and hope the Russians are sane enough to attempt some sort of regime change.

FYI, I agree with 99% of your posts on other threads.

[weatheriscool]

Kremlin welcomes Elon Musk proposal for Ukraine settlement denounced by Kyiv
Source: Reuters

MOSCOW, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The Kremlin praised Tesla boss Elon Musk on Tuesday for suggesting a possible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, after Kyiv rebuked Musk for proposing terms it views as rewarding Russia.

"It is very positive that somebody like Elon Musk is looking for a peaceful way out of this situation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a conference call.

"Compared to many professional diplomats, Musk is still searching for ways to achieve peace. And achieving peace without fulfilling Russia's conditions is absolutely impossible," he added.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kr ... 022-10-04/

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

For what it is worth, Naom Chomsky, along with Vijay Prashad, gave an interview recently on Democracy Now!: https://www.democracynow.org/2022/10/3/ ... kraine_war.

I do agree with their call on the U.S. administration to at least try to negotiate with Russia. Of course, negotiating with is different than capitulation. Involved in their call to negotiate are some rather disturbing allegations about the lack of a willingness to negotiate. The U.S. needs to be careful in order to occupy the high ground here.

[caltrek]

Kremlin welcomes Elon Musk proposal for Ukraine settlement denounced by Kyiv
Source: Reuters

...
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kr ... 022-10-04/

Here is the Elon Musk Tweet in question:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000

[Xyls]

Exactly. Putin did this to himself with the nuclear blackmail something the West will never back down to. If the invasion had just started with him occupying Donbass instead of this greedy land grab he may of had a chance of getting something more like a peace agreement. However the incursions into Kherson and Zaporizhizia have shown this is nothing more than a land grab and there is no point in ever trying to appease him again. This war will continue until Russia is completely out of Ukraine at this point.

[ibm9000]

We have never, and would never try to invade or annex their lands.

Unless we get another Napoleon... Russia distrust anything coming from the west, as we are not that open for anything coming from the east or the south, for that matter.

[ººº]

And why should Russia feel so threatened by the West? We have never, and would never try to invade or annex their lands. Russia was doing relatively okay until it decided to destroy its economy and reputation.

Unless we get another Napoleon... Russia distrust anything coming from the west, as we are not that open for anything coming from the east or the south, for that matter.

I agree with Wjfox, maybe excluding Crimea.
The same cannot be said about politics/ideology...

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

Poland is asking US for nuclear weapons. Obviously, Russia has to take this as another goodwill gesture coming from the west.

[ibm9000]

Mark Hertling is giving his opinion.

He commanded the 1st Armoured Div. in Iraq, where he achieved complete victory (right?). I wonder where he is getting those "60.000" dead from, that could mean from 300.000 to 400.000 casualties or more; 2 to 3 times the troops deployed.

-you can’t issue equipment, uniforms, ammo, food, supplies, spare parts, that aren’t there (sanctions do work) in 2 months.

Because he has been checking it personally?, because that is our estimate?, because it never happened before? Generals, sometimes, are over-optimistics and they don't send enough troops and they have to do a "surge".

[ibm9000]

M. Hertling is an actual General, not an armchair general like us (like me, at least), but that doesn't mean that whatever he says is "correct"; there is also an authority bias.

[caltrek]

Pathos and Panic: Russians Are Mobilized for an Undeclared War
by a person who is kept anonymous on order to protect against possible reprisals.
October 6, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) Russia is not at war, despite what you may have heard. Despite the mobilization of reservists, the stories and images of destruction and death, despite the refugees fleeing. Russia is not at war, as Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Kremlin stressed in a recent interview. Instead, it is conducting a special military operation “to fulfill certain goals in Ukraine.” Reservists have had to be mobilized for this special military operation, half a year since it began, because “we have been de facto confronted…with the NATO block and all its logistics capabilities.”

Referring to the Special Military Operation as war is still illegal in Russia, punishable by up to 15 years in prison. It also happens to be illegal to cross into the territory of a neighboring sovereign nation, armed, without a declaration of war. But while people do call the special military operation a war in casual conversations, they rarely question this operation’s legality: not even as men receive their mobilization notices, board buses, and head to the front.

Conclusion:

…they do not organize political protests to end this “special military operation” …And not only because they fear the police. People in Russia do protest when they feel it is necessary. They protest corrupt local governance, or landfills being dug in their backyards. Sometimes these public actions turn violent, like the anti-mobilization protests in Dagestan have. But this undeclared war is not something that most people in Russia think to protest. The idea simply does not occur.

Is there hope? Perhaps it is with the enduring dignity of these mobilized middle-aged men, their friends, and their families. The internet is full of videos of them boarding the buses, piss drunk, getting into fistfights, asking who’s going to feed their wives and children once they get killed. On September 30, while members of Putin’s High Society celebrated the annexation of Ukrainian territories, a bus full of mobilized men flipped in Tatarstan. According to eyewitness accounts, one of the men threw himself on the steering wheel, drunk. Perhaps Putin’s poorly oiled military machine will choke on these fine everyday guys and finally sputter dead.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... ared-war/

[caltrek]

Source Indicates U.S. Believes Elements Within Ukraine’s Government Authorized Assassination Near Moscow
by Natasha Bertrand and Katie Bo Lillis
October 6, 2022

Introduction:

Washington CNN —

The US intelligence community believes that the car bombing that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of prominent Russian political figure Alexander Dugin, was authorized by elements within the Ukrainian government, sources briefed on the intelligence told CNN.

The US was not aware of the plan beforehand, according to the sources, and it is still unclear who exactly the US believes signed off on the assassination. It is also not clear whether the US intelligence community believes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was aware of the plot or authorized it.

But the intelligence finding, first reported by the New York Times, would seem to corroborate elements of the Russian authorities’ findings that the car bombing was “pre-planned.” Russia had accused Ukrainian nationals of being responsible for the attack, which Ukraine had strongly denied in the aftermath of the explosion.

Asked to comment, a Ukrainian defense intelligence official told CNN Wednesday evening following publication of the latest reports that their agency had no new information on Dugina’s death. Shortly after her death, the same official had told CNN that Ukraine had nothing to do with it.

The National Security Council, CIA and State Department declined to comment.

Read more here: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/05/politic ... ndex.html

[Yuli Ban]

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis

President Joe Biden said Thursday that the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” is at the highest level since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, as Russian officials speak of the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons after suffering massive setbacks in the eight-month invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking at a fundraiser for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin was “a guy I know fairly well” and the Russian leader was “not joking when he talks about the use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons.”

Biden added, “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” He suggested the threat from Putin is real “because his military is — you might say — significantly underperforming.”

U.S. officials for months have warned of the prospect that Russia could use weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine as it has faced a series of strategic setbacks on the battlefield, though Biden’s remarks marked the starkest warnings yet issued by the U.S. government about the nuclear stakes.

It was not immediately clear whether Biden was referring to any new assessment of Russian intentions. As recently as this week, though, U.S. officials have said they have seen no change to Russia’s nuclear forces that would require a change in the alert posture of U.S. nuclear forces.

[weatheriscool]

US believes elements within Ukraine's government authorized assassination near Moscow, sources say
Source: CNN

The US intelligence community believes that the car bombing that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of prominent Russian political figure Alexander Dugin, was authorized by elements within the Ukrainian government, sources briefed on the intelligence told CNN.

The US was not aware of the plan beforehand, according to the sources, and it is still unclear who exactly the US believes signed off on the assassination. It is also not clear whether the US intelligence community believes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was aware of the plot or authorized it.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/05/politics ... index.html

I hope they kill Putin soon!

[Xyls]

Hopes high in battle for Ukraine’s jewel of the south

https://www.afr.com/world/europe/hopes- ... 006-p5bnon

As I said a few months ago. Kherson will be the decisive battle of the war. I don't consider these offensives part of the Battle of Kherson yet, but if Ukraine manages to oust Russia from the city the morale blow the Russian army might be impossible for Putin to overcome. I already think I forsee what the strategy is going to be and it is likely going to be a grinding siege in the winter to retake it.

I imagine Ukraine is likely trying to get as close as possible so that himars and anti-aircraft systems can disrupt support from Crimea as much as possible. Then with Russia's poor supply they are probably going to let Father Winter do his damage to Russian forces while breaking their morale in a slow moving crawl into the city.

I expect this city to be a battle starting in December and lasting through the better part of the winter.

[Xyls]

Leader of Russia-annexed region calls for Russia’s Military Chief to ‘shoot himself’

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-719104

The recently-appointed leader of the annexed Kherson region of southern Ukraine called on Russia’s Defense Minister and Putin confidante Sergei Shoigu to “shoot himself” in a video posted on his Telegram channel Thursday.

The Kremlin-installed deputy head of the annexed Kherson region, Kirill Stremousov, criticized the Russian military response amid a recent Ukrainian counteroffensive in the region, which led to massive gains by Ukraine.

Lmao... with friends like these...

[ibm9000]

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence agencies believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorised a car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, the New York Times reported.

I thought we did not believe that. Question: is Ukraine a terrorist state? (If...).

Let's see...
Russia doesn't have enough troops... (like in Iraq) they are a bunch of incompetents... commanded by an idiot... while Ukraine, they are a bunch of heroes, commanded by a genius, with a lot of western superior technology weapons... The Russians are still there.
The fact is that Russia still holds a good chunk of Ukraine: the narrative, has to be wrong.

[ibm9000]

Pathos and Panic: Russians Are Mobilized for an Undeclared War

We all know that Vietnam was never a "war" and that when the US Army invaded (campaign) Cambodia there was no War Declaration. Yes, free speech
and the press were different then.