Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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ibm9000 wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:57 pm
How does one negotiate with someone who refuses to bargain in good faith?
...
BTW -I don't keep score, it seems that you do- have you been answering all my questions? I think this one was for me and I think to recall I gave you an answer (if not to your question): I don't serve at your pleasure. We give the opinions we want, we ask what we want, we answer what we want.
(Unless Big Brother intervenes).
I have decided to no longer answer all your questions because so many of your posts detract from the theme of this thread. At least, in my opinion. That is what continual harping on what-aboutism themes, etc. leads to.

As you say, I don't serve at your pleasure, so I also give opinions that I want to give.

I also am not interested in wasting my time with somebody who doesn't even want to bother to give links or proper citations to support what on the surface are outlandish claims. Citations in such circumstances are merely a matter of good scholarship practices. Even if you cannot provide a link, explaining the source such as a specific book, magazine or newspaper article is fundamental. If you are unwilling to meet even that minimal standard of good scholarship, then the motivation for me to debate diminishes greatly.

It is easier to lie, or pass along somebody else's lie, than it is to take minimal steps toward being sure that one is writing the truth. Deception tilts the playing field. I am simply not interested in playing on such a tilted playing field, even if it is with somebody who also sometimes makes good and interesting points.

Sure, I may on occasion provide links to sources that others find untrustworthy. Still, I try to identify at least the proximate source for my claim. That leaves it to the reader to decide whether the cited source is trustworthy or not.

There is also the question of interpretation of sources. I have found many occasions over the years where somebody will provide a link to a source upon my request. Upon reviewing the source in question, I sometimes find that said source was completely misinterpreted and that the source actually supported the arguments that I was making.

In summary, snarky dismals of my requests will lead to me ignoring the poster. I trust others in this forum to come to similar conclusions.
Don't mourn, organize.

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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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ibm9000 wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:57 pm
How does one negotiate with someone who refuses to bargain in good faith?
Can you prove the absence of good faith?
Treat the question as a hypothetical.
You never negotiate in "good faith, you just negotiate. Your point is not to reach "fairness", you are trying to get as much as you can and to give as little as you can. I don't call that "good faith".
Aside from an interest in the question as a hypothetical, I have also made comments regarding the fundamentally genocidal nature of what appears to be Putin's policy. Under such circumstances, it is not just a matter of bargaining the way one might in Tijuana with a street merchant. It is also a matter of carefully constructing a settlement that guarantees security.

Putin's bad faith has already been demonstrated by his dismissal of Biden's warnings regarding invasion plans as being "hysterical" shortly before executing such plans. History is filled with settlements that merely bought time for an aggressor party to regroup and strike again at a moment of their maximum convenience. That sort of "bargaining" is the essence of bad faith.
Don't mourn, organize.

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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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raklian
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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wjfox wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:54 pm
People (at least in Twitter) are saying Ukraine is not done just yet. Makes sense considering Ukraine needs this major artery of Russian reinforcements permanently knocked out so they can take Kherson and Crimea without much resistance.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Putin's bad faith has already been demonstrated by his dismissal of Biden's warnings regarding invasion plans as being "hysterical"
shortly before executing such plans. History is filled with settlements that merely bought time for an aggressor party to regroup and
strike again at a moment of their maximum convenience. That sort of "bargaining" is the essence of bad faith.
*warnings regarding invasion plans
That is exactly what you are supposed to do in a war: mislead the enemy.

*History is filled with settlements
And only those settlements? (The aggressor and the defender).

*and strike again
Ah!, we have a fortune teller here. You do know what is going to happen in the future. Nothing to add, then.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Kherson and Crimea without much resistance.
I think they need a bit more than that... Like to occupy (and thus cut permanently) the rail line coming from Rostov and block all ports in Crimea.
I am not quite sure why a sudden collapse should happen (it has happened in very few occasions in History, even if this stakes are not that high) and,
besides negotiation, I cannot see that "without" about Kherson. Sevastopol Naval Base?, if Ukraine can just walk there, something terrible has happened, terrible for the planet I would say, of unknown consequences.
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f*ck Russia and f*ck everyone who supports this evil regime.

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Ukraine: Russian strikes kill 17 following bridge attack
Source: AP

JUSTIN SPIKE and ADAM SCHRECK

ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine (AP) — A Russian barrage pounded apartment buildings and other targets in the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, killing at least 17 people and wounding dozens, officials said Sunday.

The blasts in the city, which remains under Ukrainian control but sits in a region Moscow has claimed as its own, blew out windows in adjacent buildings and left at least one high-rise apartment building partially collapsed.

The multiple strikes came after an explosion Saturday caused the partial collapse of a bridge linking the Crimean Peninsula with Russia. The Kerch Bridge attack damaged an important supply route for the Kremlin’s faltering war effort in southern Ukraine, an artery that also is a towering symbol of Russia’s power in the region.

The rockets that pounded Zaporizhzhia overnight damaged at least 20 private homes and 50 apartment buildings, city council Secretary Anatoliy Kurtev said. At least 40 people were hospitalized, Kurtev said on Telegram.


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... osition_01
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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The Kerch Strait bridge is open to car traffic again, but the wait is almost 12 hours.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/huge-lines-d ... 56576.html
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Explosions in central Kyiv this morning.



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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Germany to deliver air defence system to Ukraine within days - defence ministry

October 10, 2022 11:44 AM

Germany will deliver the first of four IRIS-T SLM air defence systems to Ukraine within days, German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Monday.

"The renewed missile fire on Kyiv and the many other cities show how important it is to supply Ukraine with air defence systems quickly," Lambrecht said in a statement.

"Russia's attacks with missiles and drones terrorize the civilian population in particular. That is why we are now providing support especially with air defence weapons."

Russia pounded cities across Ukraine during rush hour on Monday morning, killing civilians and knocking out power and heat, in apparent revenge strikes after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a blast on Russia's bridge to Crimea to be a terrorist attack. read more

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 022-10-10/
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Appoints New War Commander
by Stetson Payne
October 8, 2022

Introduction:
(The Drive) The Russian Ministry of Defense announced Gen. Sergei Surovikin as the new overall commander of Russia’s combined group of forces in Ukraine as Moscow looks to slow Kyiv’s momentum.

Surovikin, commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces and a previous commander of Russian forces in Syria, has reportedly commanded the Southern Group of Forces in Ukraine since June.

(See linked article for Twitter feeds)

The change from Moscow comes as Russian forces face ongoing Ukrainian offensives in the Donbas and in Kherson Oblast. As if that wasn’t enough to stretch the lines, Ukraine could soon begin a new offensive in the center towards Melitopol or Berdyansk.

The October 8 explosion at the Kerch Strait Bridge, which damaged the vital road and rail link between mainland Russia and occupied Crimea, makes Melitopol a lucrative prize for Ukrainian troops. Since the attack, reports indicate rail and road traffic over the bridge have resumed, but in a very limited fashion. Make sure to read our most recent and updated post on the explosion at the Kerch Strait Bridge here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... ed-degree

Russian forces in Kherson rely on supply lines from Crimea to the south and Melitopol in the east. The supplies in Crimea must come from Russia by sea or over the damaged bridge, and the Melitopol line is well within the range of strikes or a sudden breakthrough of Ukrainian forces. If Ukraine could seize this area, they could sever this essential landbridge to Crimea and their forces in southern Ukraine.
Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... commander
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