Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Xyls]

Elon continuing to be a traitor, or just trying to mooch of the US government? Typical Elon, the SpaceX contracts should be pulled.

[Yuli Ban]

This Drone-Versus-Drone Kill In Ukraine Could Be An Air Combat First

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year and the fighting that has followed has yielded some remarkable imagery, sometimes providing suggestions of what future warfare might look like, and other times seemingly recalling warfare of a previous age. Among the latest such video shows a close-quarters ‘duel’ fought between a pair of quadcopter unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, the kind that are familiar to hobbyists, but which now are also firmly established as critical capabilities in conflicts in all corners of the globe.

The video, just 16 seconds long, began to circulate widely on social media today and has attracted much commentary in the process. The footage is reportedly shot from a Ukrainian Armed Forces UAV, a Chinese-made DJI Mavic-type quadcopter, but no details about the type are discernable from the video. The camera aboard the drone observes what is purported to be a Russian (or pro-Russian) controlled quadcopter, which approaches the Ukrainian UAV before seemingly moving to collide with it, losing at least one rotor blade as a result, then plummeting toward the ground. The footage is undated but is said to have been taken in the skies over the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.

[ibm9000]

it isn't France that Putin needs to worry about its the United States and UK

.
Russia has to worry about UK?, why, maybe because the £ is going to fall too low?

[caltrek]

Macron what are you doing? Is this part of some strategy where you are playing the good cop to get Putin to engage while the Anglophone countries play the bad cop? Let's be real, it isn't France that Putin needs to worry about its the United States and UK. This is a bad look for France which is giving the "cheese eating surrender monkey" trope legs again...

France Says It Won’t Deploy Nukes If Russia Uses Them Against Ukraine

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... st-ukraine

First rule of deterrence... don't rule ANYTHING out and keep people guessing. Lord, this man...

What would be so bad about France playing the "good cop"?

Somebody needs to keep talking to that lunatic. I mean really, I am beginning to think that Erowind is the only one with a lick of common sense on these boards. Those that post about the horrors of nuclear war should be applauding those that are trying to find an alternate route.

If Macron were in charge of the entire nuclear arsenal outside of China and Russia, I could see your point. Yet, he isn't. As you point out, Russia has more to fear from the U.S. and the U.K. (The critical word here being and as in the combined forces). It is therefore not necessary that we push the rest of the world into the "either you are with us, or you are against us" mode of thinking. Macron has shown that he wants a to see an end to hostilities and that he does not approve of the invasion. That should be plenty enough for us to agree upon.

Of course, the situation is not helped by those who continue to insist upon what-aboutisms that are full of false equivalencies and distortions of history. They would paint the U.S. and the U.K. into the opposite corner, one in which they are reduced to a false equivalency of being "just as bad" as Russia.

There needs to be a middle road. One that is more than just an extension of the same old colonial paternalism that exploits more than it protects. Yet, one that also refuses to simply capitulate to Putin's demands to cave into nuclear blackmail.

It may very well be that Putin will preclude us from finding such a middle path, but that is no reason to give up on finding such a solution. Considering how much is at stake.

There, is there any one of you that I managed not to piss off with this post?

[caltrek]

Elon Musk: SpaceX Can't Fund Internet in Ukraine "Indefinitely"
by Herb Scribner
October 14, 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) Elon Musk said Friday that his company SpaceX can't "indefinitely" fund critical internet service in Ukraine through Starlink terminals.

Why it matters: The terminals have provided internet service for Ukraine's military and government officials, even as Russia's invasion has ravaged the country's infrastructure.

• SpaceX has sent more than 10,000 Starlink internet terminals to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February, per CNBC.

• Musk said the “operation has cost SpaceX $80 million and will exceed $100 million by the end of the year.”

Driving the news: Musk said in a tweet Friday that SpaceX “is not asking to recoup past expenses” for the Starlink program.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/14/elon- ... et-russia

[Xyls]

Macron what are you doing? Is this part of some strategy where you are playing the good cop to get Putin to engage while the Anglophone countries play the bad cop? Let's be real, it isn't France that Putin needs to worry about its the United States and UK. This is a bad look for France which is giving the "cheese eating surrender monkey" trope legs again...

France Says It Won’t Deploy Nukes If Russia Uses Them Against Ukraine

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... st-ukraine

First rule of deterrence... don't rule ANYTHING out and keep people guessing. Lord, this man...

What would be so bad about France playing the "good cop"?

Somebody needs to keep talking to that lunatic. I mean really, I am beginning to think that Erowind is the only one with a lick of common sense on these boards. Those that post about the horrors of nuclear war should be applauding those that are trying to find an alternate route.

If Macron were in charge of the entire nuclear arsenal outside of China and Russia, I could see your point. Yet, he isn't. As you point out, Russia has more to fear from the U.S. and the U.K. (The critical word here being and as in the combined forces). It is therefore not necessary that we push the rest of the world into the "either you are with us, or you are against us" mode of thinking. Macron has shown that he wants a to see an end to hostilities and that he does not approve of the invasion. That should be plenty enough for us to agree upon.

Of course, the situation is not helped by those who continue to insist upon what-aboutisms that are full of false equivalencies and distortions of history. They would paint the U.S. and the U.K. into the opposite corner, one in which they are reduced to a false equivalency of being "just as bad" as Russia.

There needs to be a middle road. One that is more than just an extension of the same old colonial paternalism that exploits more than it protects. Yet, one that also refuses to simply capitulate to Putin's demands to cave into nuclear blackmail.

It may very well be that Putin will preclude us from finding such a middle path, but that is no reason to give up on finding such a solution. Considering how much is at stake.

There, is there any one of you that I managed not to piss off with this post?

I think you may be aware caltrek, but I have 0 problem pissing people off. However, I speak very directly and with a clear position and not constantly concealing what my intent or positions are unlike some users (ibm). That may bother people, but I'm not going to muddle my position on issues. It is a legitimate critique of what Macron is doing. Is he trying to play to a domestic audience with this? Is he trying to open dialogue when Putin has already shown he doesn't give a lick what Macron thinks based on previous conversations? Is he being a coward? Dialogue can continue to be kept open even if it is not being said publically. Isn't Turkey already acting as the midway between NATO and Russia? It is a VERY bad look to make it look like you are giving into nuclear blackmail.

It's the inconsistency of the messaging for me.

[Xyls]

Musk not even being subtle about the Starlink thing:



I will say though the Ukrainian ministers should've kept out of it.

[joe00uk]

I will say though the Ukrainian ministers should've kept out of it.

Indeed. Never bite the hand that feeds you. It looks like Ukraine will learn this lesson the hard way.

[caltrek]

Macron what are you doing? Is this part of some strategy where you are playing the good cop to get Putin to engage while the Anglophone countries play the bad cop? Let's be real, it isn't France that Putin needs to worry about its the United States and UK. This is a bad look for France which is giving the "cheese eating surrender monkey" trope legs again...

France Says It Won’t Deploy Nukes If Russia Uses Them Against Ukraine

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... st-ukraine

First rule of deterrence... don't rule ANYTHING out and keep people guessing. Lord, this man...

What would be so bad about France playing the "good cop"?

Somebody needs to keep talking to that lunatic. I mean really, I am beginning to think that Erowind is the only one with a lick of common sense on these boards. Those that post about the horrors of nuclear war should be applauding those that are trying to find an alternate route.

If Macron were in charge of the entire nuclear arsenal outside of China and Russia, I could see your point. Yet, he isn't. As you point out, Russia has more to fear from the U.S. and the U.K. (The critical word here being and as in the combined forces). It is therefore not necessary that we push the rest of the world into the "either you are with us, or you are against us" mode of thinking. Macron has shown that he wants a to see an end to hostilities and that he does not approve of the invasion. That should be plenty enough for us to agree upon.

Of course, the situation is not helped by those who continue to insist upon what-aboutisms that are full of false equivalencies and distortions of history. They would paint the U.S. and the U.K. into the opposite corner, one in which they are reduced to a false equivalency of being "just as bad" as Russia.

There needs to be a middle road. One that is more than just an extension of the same old colonial paternalism that exploits more than it protects. Yet, one that also refuses to simply capitulate to Putin's demands to cave into nuclear blackmail.

It may very well be that Putin will preclude us from finding such a middle path, but that is no reason to give up on finding such a solution. Considering how much is at stake.

There, is there any one of you that I managed not to piss off with this post?

I think you may be aware caltrek, but I have 0 problem pissing people off. However, I speak very directly and with a clear position and not constantly concealing what my intent or positions are unlike some users (ibm). That may bother people, but I'm not going to muddle my position on issues. It is a legitimate critique of what Macron is doing. Is he trying to play to a domestic audience with this? Is he trying to open dialogue when Putin has already shown he doesn't give a lick what Macron thinks based on previous conversations? Is he being a coward? Dialogue can continue to be kept open even if it is not being said publically. Isn't Turkey already acting as the midway between NATO and Russia? It is a VERY bad look to make it look like you are giving into nuclear blackmail.

It's the inconsistency of the messaging for me.

Well, I think your response here is more reasonable than what I interpreted to be your initial point. Thank you for your clarification.

Personally, I still tend to be a little bit more sympathetic to what Macron is trying to do. It may help to build trust to actually show a little bit of daylight from the U.S./U.K. position. Still, it is a difficult problem, and you make some valid points.

[Xyls]

I will say though the Ukrainian ministers should've kept out of it.

Indeed. Never bite the hand that feeds you. It looks like Ukraine will learn this lesson the hard way.

Agreed, but Elon also needs to be taught a lesson. He's very clearly becoming a national security threat in the US at this point.

Update: Interestingly the Guardian is reporting that Elon had actually already started this process of stopping Starlink in September before this whole Ukrainian ambassador Tweet. So it seems like this has been longer in the making: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ents=false

[joe00uk]

Agreed, but Elon also needs to be taught a lesson. He's very clearly becoming a national security threat in the US at this point.

To be honest, my sympathies are with Elon here and not with the DC regime.

[andmar74]

How can Putin get out of this without loosing face?
When I was thinking about this, it became obvious:

The Russians will leave Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, and Putin will explain that Russia couldn't keep on fighting all of NATO, which is 30 countries. Now this is even mostly true. A huge amount of weapons and ammunition has been sent to Ukraine, to the point where the NATO members are running low on military equipment. Ukrainian soldiers and other personel are trained in NATO countries, and prior to the war the Ukrainian army was trained by NATO personel in Ukraine. Also, Ukraine is surely getting a lot of intel from the west.

Putin will also say that a lot of nazis have been tortured and killed, so under the circumstances it's a success.

Quoting myself here..
Now Joe Biden is saying the same:

that Putin "could just flat leave, and still probably hold his position together in Russia," as questions have arisen about whether the Kremlin resident can stay in power without winning some kind of victory.

Biden said Putin might be able to tell the Russian people "that this something that he thought made sense, but now he's accomplished what he wanted to do, and it's time to bring Russians home."

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-just ... ar-1751426

[ibm9000]

Wishful thinking and fairy tales are not an "opinion".
(But I may be wrong).

Agreed, but Elon also needs to be taught a lesson

.
Who is the bully here?

not constantly concealing what my intent or positions are unlike some users (ibm).

Intent?, what that has anything to do with? Facts are true or false.

*Is he trying to play to a domestic audience with this?
You mean like Putin, Biden and Zelensky?

*Is he trying to open dialogue when Putin has already shown he doesn't give a lick what Macron thinks based on conversations?
You mean as much as Putin and Biden care about what we -armchair generals- and K. think about it?

Have you been private to any one of those conversations?
(Please, tell us).


*It is a VERY bad look to make it look like you are giving into nuclear blackmail.
You mean when Biden said that he was not going to start WW3 for Ukraine?

[ibm9000]

Never bite the hand that feeds you.

Are we talking about the Free Press here?

[weatheriscool]

U.S. warns of sanctions against suppliers of ammunition to Russia
Source: Reuters

By Daphne Psaledakis, Karen Freifeld and Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The United States on Friday warned it can impose sanctions on people, countries and companies that provide ammunition to Russia or support its military-industrial complex, as Washington seeks to increase pressure on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo, at a first-of-its kind gathering with officials from 32 countries and the United States to discuss sanctions on Russia, made clear that Washington is prepared to take action against those outside the United States evading Washington's sanctions.

Officials at the meeting, which included representatives from EU countries, Canada and South Korea, discussed additional steps planned to target Russia's military-industrial complex and the effects of several rafts of sanctions imposed by Washington and its partners over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which has killed or wounded thousands.

The Treasury Department also warned that Washington is prepared to impose sanctions on those providing ammunition or other military goods to Russia as well as private military companies or paramilitary groups that participate in or support Russia's war in Ukraine.

Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/news/sanctions-ta ... 25113.html

[ibm9000]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The United States on Friday warned it can impose sanctions on people...

I cannot remember US imposing sanctions on UK for selling weapons to Saudi Arabia while the invasion of Yemen.
History is teaching us that US impose sanctions based on:
- Invading countries
- Killing people
- Moral standards
- National interests
which one?

[caltrek]

Ukraine Situation Report: Noose Tightens Around Russian-Occupied Kherson
by Stetson Payne
October 15, 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) Ukrainian forces are back on the move in Kherson Oblast, with reports of fierce fighting at the frontlines and varying stages of panic among Russian Telegram channels.

Reports indicate the offensive remains focused on the Dnipro River’s west bank in an effort to trap Russian forces in a rapid drive to take river crossings.

(See linked article for Twitter feeds)

The Russian position in Kherson has reportedly weakened enough to where some western officials believe Kherson could be liberated within the week. If Ukraine's offensive continues down the river bank, they could take or cut off the oft-targeted crossings at Nova Kakhovka and both Antonivksiy bridges long before entering the city of Kherson itself. Their capture with the Russians still in Kherson would indicate a massive encirclement.

The move forces Russia to choose between maintaining its broad frontline or retreating out of the city and across the river. The prospects of encirclement apparently have many Russian mil-bloggers and Russian occupation officials in a panic.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... d-kherson

[caltrek]

Putin: ‘Our Goal is Not to Destroy All of Ukraine’
by Cain Burdeau
October 14, 2022

Introduction:

(Courthouse News) — Appearing confident and relaxed, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a news conference on Friday where he said he did not regret ordering an invasion of his neighbor and that Russia does not intend to “destroy all of Ukraine.”

“Our goal is not to destroy all of Ukraine,” Putin said at a wide-ranging news conference in Astana, Kazakhstan.

It was a rare occasion where he discussed the war in Ukraine in a public format since ordering the invasion of Russia’s southern neighbor on Feb. 24, a decision that’s thrown into chaos world affairs and sparked fears of a nuclear confrontation between Moscow and Washington.

His statement about not wanting to destroy “all of Ukraine” comes after nearly eight months of a war that has gone very poorly for Putin and his army.

Western and Ukrainian leaders accuse him of indeed trying to destroy Ukraine as a state and forcing it to come under Russian control. Critics charge Putin with seeking to reestablish the Russian Empire.

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/putin-o ... -ukraine/

[Xyls]

FALL OF KHERSON IMMINENT

The city of Kherson is likely to fall within the next 10 days. Russian forces are currently in the process of deporting Ukrainian children and are now seizing bank assets as well as other valuables for what looks like will be a total withdrawal across the Dnieper. They also seem to be targeting those they suspect may have Ukrainian sympathies before they go.

Based on reports the Ukrainians have launched another Kherson offensive the Russian leadership may have decided to cut it's losses here and go to more defensible positions across the Dnieper in an attempt to stall for time to see if their winter energy war strategy on Europe and political change in the US will bring results in slowing down support for Ukraine.

This will also lower casualties on them for the time being. Expect to see some increased attacks on Bakhmut as Russia likely will want to show some sort of propaganda victory to it's people when it loses Kherson which will be a big moral blow.

While this looks like a defeat this may be the first militarily smart thing that Russia has done this war... as it prevents a decisive defeat of them here which could end the war and makes it so Ukraine will now have the difficulty of having to cross the Dnieper as winter approaches. And it will need to keep having victories to keep European support in particular as winter energy prices being to bite. (That being said though Western public opinion remains overwhelmingly against Russia and that isn't likely to break as easy as Putin thinks it will.)

It should be noted that the Ukrainian side has invoked a call of silence so isn't giving much info about what is going on but there is evidence suggesting they are making major gains there towards the city at the moment as Russians continue to try to rapidly evacuate.

[weatheriscool]

Eleven Russian soldiers killed in mass shooting by fellow volunteers
Source: The Guardian

At least 11 people were killed and 15 more wounded at a military training ground in the Belgorod region in south-western Russia on Saturday when two volunteers opened fire on other troops, the Russian defence ministry has said.

The ministry said in a statement that the two shooters were nationals from a former Soviet republic and had been shot dead after the attack.
...
According to Baza, a Russian news site with close ties to the police, the shooting took place at 10am local time during shooting practice.

Saturday’s mass shooting points to growing tensions among Russia’s troops, issues that have plagued its army since the start of the war.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... und-attack