Ukraine War Watch Thread

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'My son has died': Russia mourns loss of first drafted soldiers in Ukraine
Source: The Guardian
Andrei Nikiforov, a lawyer from St Petersburg, was one of the hundreds of thousands of Russians mobilised since last month to hold the frontlines in his country’s faltering war in Ukraine.

On 25 September he received his call-up papers. By 7 October, just two weeks later, he was dead.

“We don’t know what happened,” said Alexander Zelensky, the head of the Nevsky Collegium of Lawyers, of which Nikiforov was a member. Zelensky and a member of Nikiforov’s family confirmed his call-up and death. “All we have is a date and a place.”

That place was Lysychansk, one of the most dangerous spots near the frontlines.
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... in-ukraine
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Russia has also now pissed off Israel with it's dealings with Iran.

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Visegrád 24
More info on the Belgorod mass shooting (30 Russians dead)...
The rest of the world says "11", but... why not?
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"Russians looting banks"
Conclusion: the loss if Kherson in 10 days.
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Russia hits Ukraine's capital with wave of 'kamikaze' drones
Source: NBC

Russia blasted the Ukrainian capital with a deadly wave of “kamikaze” drones Monday, in a renewed attack that set apartments ablaze as soldiers fired into the air.

The drones, carrying explosives and their distinctive buzz, terrorized Kyiv just a week after the Kremlin’s forces unleashed a deadly barrage against civilian and infrastructure targets across the country.

Ukraine said the attacks included Iranian-made drones, which it has accused Moscow of increasingly deploying as it runs low on precision missiles, and appealed again for Western allies to provide aerial defensive help...


Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/kyiv ... -rcna52496
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Russian Su-34 Fullback Jet Slams Into Apartment Building In A Ball Of Fire
by Emma Helfrich
October 17, 2022

Introduction:
(The Drive) A Russian military jet has crashed into a residential building in the city of Yeysk, and the Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that the aircraft involved is a Sukhoi Su-34 Fullback. In videos and images of the incident that have so far surfaced online, large black plumes of smoke can be seen emanating from the scene where the Russian jet went down, proceeded by a huge fireball. In one specific photo, what appears to be a member of the jet’s crew can be seen parachuting down next to the flames presumably after ejecting from the aircraft just an instant before the crash.

RIA News, a Russian-state media outlet, has quoted the Russian Defense Ministry's statement, and a version of it machine translated from Russian to English reads as follows: "On October 17, 2022, while climbing to perform a training flight from the military airfield of the Southern Military District, a Su-34 aircraft crashed. The aircraft crashed within the city of Yeysk." The statement went on to add that the crash was caused by an issue with one of the engines during takeoff, but the jet's two crewmembers are said to have ejected safely and survived. The extent of the injuries to the apartment building's tenants as well as civilians in the surrounding area is unknown at present.

(See linked article for Twitter feed one of which is included below).

The crash site's proximity to a nearby air base would help explain why the Su-34, which is a supersonic twin-engine fighter-bomber that has become a fixture in the Russian Air Force, was flying low over the area in the first place. The Russian city of Yeysk, which is a coastal town in the Krasnodar Territory situated directly across the Sea of Azov from the Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol, is home to the Yeysk Airfield from which the Su-34 likely took off.

The Russian Defense Ministry's claim of an engine malfunction could also be corroborated by clips reportedly taken from security camera footage that appear to have captured the aircraft struggling to make altitude.
Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... l-of-fire

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Pentagon Says Russia Trying Terror Attacks on Ukrainian Civilians
by Jim Garamone
October 18, 2022

Introduction:
(U.S. Department of Defense via Eurasia News) It is a sign of the bankrupt Russian strategy that they continue to conduct indiscriminate strikes across Ukraine, senior military officials said at the Pentagon Monday.

Russian forces are using a variety of missiles and Iranian attack drones to target cities in Ukraine. “We assess that Russia has deliberately struck civilian infrastructure and non-military targets, with the purpose of needlessly harming civilians and attempting to instill terror among [the] Ukrainian population,” the official said on background.

The official said the Ukraine counteroffensive continues. “While it remains a dynamic fight, there have been no major shifts in territory over the past day or so,” he said. “Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct artillery strikes against one another along the frontlines, with Ukraine consolidating its previous gains.”

Russian forces are trying to mount an offensive in the central part of the Donbas, but Ukrainian forces are largely continuing to hold the line.
On the Kherson front, “we continue to see deliberate and calibrated operations by the Ukrainians to move forward,” the official said. “We have no major updates to provide in terms of territory taken back. We do assess that Russian forces continue to reinforce their defensive lines against Ukrainian forces.”
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/18102022 ... ivilians/
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Pentagon Says Russia Trying Terror Attacks on Ukrainian Civilians
by Jim Garamone
October 18, 2022

Introduction:
(RFE/RL) — A prominent Czech expert on disinformation and “hybrid threats” says that while the West spent years underestimating the danger emanating from Moscow, a resolute response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its “nuclear blackmail” could help reverse years of “paralysis” in the face of “empty threats” oft-repeated by the Kremlin.

Jakub Kalensky of the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE), a Helsinki think tank established by the European Union and NATO, says allowing worst-case fears of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions to steer responses to the invasion of Ukraine would be a mistake.
“Taken abstractly, the threat of a nuclear strike is obviously something absolutely horrible,” Kalensky told RFE/RL’s Georgian Service this month in a wide-ranging interview. “However, I really do not want us to fall for the trap and start discussing what happens if Putin does it [uses nuclear weapons], because I believe that this is only helping Putin in his work to spread fear of the consequences of opposing the Kremlin’s unlawful, criminal, genocidal aggression.”

Kyiv and Western officials have accused Russian officials of “nuclear blackmail” in their capture of Ukrainian nuclear facilities, including Europe’s biggest power plant at Zaporizhzhya, and their threats to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory that they falsely claim now includes four regions of eastern Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden warned earlier this month that Putin would invite “the prospect of Armageddon” if he used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and expressed hope of finding an “off-ramp” to help avoid such a grave outcome.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/18102022 ... analysis/

caltrek’s comment: This is the problem with dealing with somebody of Putin’s mentality. Genuine efforts at peaceful resolution are met with conclusions that this reveals a deep weakness within the West. Conversely, forceful efforts to resist naked aggression are dismissed as fundamentally hypocritical and therefore unjust. It is not just the West that needs to give Putin off ramps. Putin, and the hardliners he represents, also need to point the way to a peaceful resolution that is something other than simply caving into their absurd demands.
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Iran agrees to ship missiles, more drones to Russia, defying the West
Source: Reuters
Oct 18 (Reuters) - Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats told Reuters, a move that is likely to infuriate the United States and other Western powers.

A deal was agreed on Oct. 6 when Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, two senior officials from Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards and an official from the Supreme National Security Council visited Moscow for talks with Russia about the delivery of the weapons.

"The Russians had asked for more drones and those Iranian ballistic missiles with improved accuracy, particularly the Fateh and Zolfaghar missiles family," said one of the Iranian diplomats, who was briefed about the trip.

A Western official briefed on the matter confirmed it, saying there was an agreement in place between Iran and Russia to provide surface-to-surface short range ballistic missiles, including the Zolfaghar.
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive ... 022-10-18/
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Missiles, exploding drones again hit Ukraine's power, water
Source: AP

By HANNA ARHIROVA
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Airstrikes cut power and water supplies in a repeatedly bombed Ukrainian city and pounded critical energy facilities elsewhere on Tuesday, part of what Ukraine’s president denounced as a quickening Russian campaign to drive Ukrainians into the cold and dark and making peace talks impossible.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said nearly one-third of Ukraine’s power stations have been destroyed in the past week, “causing massive blackouts across the country.”

“No space left for negotiations with Putin’s regime,” he tweeted.

The campaign of strikes using missiles, drones and other weaponry has opened a new phase in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nearly eight-month invasion, as winter begins to bite. Even far from battlefields, water, heating and power are no longer certainties, with daily strikes reaching far into the country to slam utilities, sometimes faster than they can be repaired.


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... osition_02
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Let's see, buying weapons from a widely-acknowledged terrorist state (Iran) and then using those weapons to deliberately attack civilian targets and to cripple Ukraine's energy infrastructure to freeze its citizens in the coming winter? Russia sure does sound like a terrorist state at this point.
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caltrek wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 2:03 pm Pentagon Says Russia Trying Terror Attacks on Ukrainian Civilians
by Jim Garamone
October 18, 2022

Introduction:
(RFE/RL) — A prominent Czech expert on disinformation and “hybrid threats” says that while the West spent years underestimating the danger emanating from Moscow, a resolute response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its “nuclear blackmail” could help reverse years of “paralysis” in the face of “empty threats” oft-repeated by the Kremlin.

Jakub Kalensky of the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE), a Helsinki think tank established by the European Union and NATO, says allowing worst-case fears of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions to steer responses to the invasion of Ukraine would be a mistake.
“Taken abstractly, the threat of a nuclear strike is obviously something absolutely horrible,” Kalensky told RFE/RL’s Georgian Service this month in a wide-ranging interview. “However, I really do not want us to fall for the trap and start discussing what happens if Putin does it [uses nuclear weapons], because I believe that this is only helping Putin in his work to spread fear of the consequences of opposing the Kremlin’s unlawful, criminal, genocidal aggression.”

Kyiv and Western officials have accused Russian officials of “nuclear blackmail” in their capture of Ukrainian nuclear facilities, including Europe’s biggest power plant at Zaporizhzhya, and their threats to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory that they falsely claim now includes four regions of eastern Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden warned earlier this month that Putin would invite “the prospect of Armageddon” if he used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and expressed hope of finding an “off-ramp” to help avoid such a grave outcome.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/18102022 ... analysis/

caltrek’s comment: This is the problem with dealing with somebody of Putin’s mentality. Genuine efforts at peaceful resolution are met with conclusions that this reveals a deep weakness within the West. Conversely, forceful efforts to resist naked aggression are dismissed as fundamentally hypocritical and therefore unjust. It is not just the West that needs to give Putin off ramps. Putin, and the hardliners he represents, also need to point the way to a peaceful resolution that is something other than simply caving into their absurd demands.
Except the hardliners in Russia have shown no indication of this. Here's a wonderful example of Russian TV:



The Russians themselves are responsible to show that they will use an off-ramp, and yet they have shown no indication of this. Instead, they keep doing terrorism and war crimes and expect that they can scare the West. This may work on feeble minded people like Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson but it certainly won't work with the majority of people and the Western public is showing it is very averse to even a hint of appeasement to Putin with his behavior and rightly so. The West will never pressure the Ukrainians to do anything at this point, and support will continue indefinitely, unless there is some massive political upheaval in the West which is the Putin win-condition. Cause regime change in the West, before he gets regime changed at this point. Except the West has a lot of regimes that would have to change, whereas the West really only needs to change one.
Last edited by Xyls on Tue Oct 18, 2022 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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funkervogt wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 3:05 pm Let's see, buying weapons from a widely-acknowledged terrorist state (Iran) and then using those weapons to deliberately attack civilian targets and to cripple Ukraine's energy infrastructure to freeze its citizens in the coming winter? Russia sure does sound like a terrorist state at this point.
This will probably kill the Iran nuclear deal and will probably bring Europe on board with potential military action against Iran. With the Iranian regime being weakened internally the Western states may come to the conclusion that they should knock out the Iranian regime now to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. This would likely be a large and catastrophic war itself, and could potentially be the final domino that encourages China that the West is distracted and can also take Taiwan.

We will have to watch how this develops. The UK defense minister was called to an emergency meeting in Washington today about the Iranian involvement in Ukraine and Europe is sharpening it's tone dramatically on Iran within the last 24-48 hours.
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We need to stop Iran somehow. Bomb them?
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andmar74 wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:36 pm We need to stop Iran somehow. Bomb them?
I think Russia is trying that diplomacy already.
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funkervogt wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 3:05 pm Let's see, buying weapons from a widely-acknowledged terrorist state (Iran) and then using those weapons to deliberately attack civilian targets and to cripple Ukraine's energy infrastructure to freeze its citizens in the coming winter? Russia sure does sound like a terrorist state at this point.
The same Iran from the Iran-Contra by Oliver North?
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ibm9000 wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:43 pm
funkervogt wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 3:05 pm Let's see, buying weapons from a widely-acknowledged terrorist state (Iran) and then using those weapons to deliberately attack civilian targets and to cripple Ukraine's energy infrastructure to freeze its citizens in the coming winter? Russia sure does sound like a terrorist state at this point.
The same Iran from the Iran-Contra by Oliver North?
Oliver North was prosecuted under the law and only escaped serious disciplinary measures due to technicalities regarding violation of protections against self-incrimination.

So, for this to be rated as a true equivalency, somebody in Iran would have to be put on trial for the latest weapons deal. I don't see that happening anytime soon.
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So, for this to be rated as a true equivalency...
I could agree with that.

On the other hand, if Iran is a terrorist State and US was doing business with Iran... do you think you could find any kind of equivalency there?
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