Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Xyls]

Anyways a quick summary of important stories today. Probably most significant is this nonsense from the Russian defense minister calling Western defense ministers to say that Ukraine was planning a dirty bomb attack.

Russia’s defense chief warns of ‘dirty bomb’ provocation

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 0a449f308c

Make it make sense people... Ukraine does not have any such weapons, and this is likely just projection before Russia tries to do something stupid.

Anyways... on actual battlefield news today. The most significant rumored news other than the continuing withdrawal from Kherson of Russia is the possible capture of Makiivka by Ukraine, which I believe is behind that defensive line the Russians were building on social media which means they are getting very close to the critical railroad hub of Svatove. Russian sources are also reporting further Ukrainian incursions close to Kreminna.

[Xyls]

[caltrek]

Diplomacy and the Ukraine War
by Connor Echols
October 23, 2022

Extract:

(Common Dreams) Unfortunately, contacts between the West and Russia have reached a nadir, according to Financial Times foreign policy columnist Gideon Rachman. “Although some might assume there is more secret diplomacy going on than meets the eye, those who should know suggest there are few channels open with the Kremlin,” Rachman wrote in a recent column.

Rachman argues that this is a serious mistake. As he notes, diplomacy need not come at the expense of strong military support for Ukraine. Rather, the two should go hand in hand as part of a broader strategy to end the war and roll back Russia’s gains.

He continues:

• “Some western military leaders are frustrated that their efforts in Ukraine are not being supported by simultaneous diplomacy. As one senior military source puts it: ‘Military action is ineffective on its own. It’s only truly effective when it’s combined with economic and diplomatic efforts. And we’re not seeing enough diplomacy.’”

Read more of the Common Dreams article here: https://www.commondreams.org/views/202 ... -ukraine

For Gideon Rachman’s article in the Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/6e0a904a-b6 ... e=blocked

[Xyls]

Going to post the Daily Mail but the rumors are getting louder and more plausible that Putin may not be with us much longer....

Putin's relatives 'are concerned about his coughing fits and constant nausea' say 'Kremlin insiders' who claimed he is also suffering cancer

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ausea.html

Most concerningly:

"The General SVR channel has long claimed that Putin is suffering from abdominal cancer, Parkinson's disease and a schizoaffective disorder."

If the final part is true, there may be no point in even attempting to negotiate as Putin is not a rational actor and even negotiation would not likely prevent nuclear conflict anyways.

[Xyls]

More genocidal nonsense from Russia:

[raklian]

I think the US intelligence is going into overdrive trying to discover what Russia intends to do with this "dirty bomb" smokescreen. They have to take this seriously since a dirty bomb is basically a radioactive bomb that kills a large number of people over time while leaving buildings intact. The Russians have already killed an untold number of civilians so you can bet they will have no qualms using a bunch of them to create a radioactive zone to protect their retreat.

[Xyls]

Lol they don't even care about their own people let alone civilians of another country.

[caltrek]

I think the US intelligence is going into overdrive trying to discover what Russia intends to do with this "dirty bomb" smokescreen...

A little background on that:

Pentagon Official Insists Ukraine Not Preparing To Use Dirty Bomb
by David Vergun
October 25, 2022

Introduction:

(Department of Defense via Eurasia Review) There are reports of Russian allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb in Ukraine. “These allegations are false,” a senior Defense Department official told reporters at the Pentagon Monday.

“The world would see through any attempt to use this allegation as a pretext for escalation. Notably, however, … we still have seen nothing to indicate that the Russians have made a decision to employ nuclear weapons,” the official said.

The department will continue to monitor the situation closely and keep the lines of communication open between allies, partners, Ukrainians and the Russians, the official said.

“In the meantime, our focus remains on continuing to work with the international community to provide Ukraine with the security assistance and support they need to defend their country,” the official added.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke by phone with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu on Friday and again yesterday.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/25102022 ... rty-bomb/

[raklian]

The first drone war intensifies...

[Xyls]

Ahhh, so since the denazification lie is no longer working for Putin, how it has to be "desatanization". And people expect Ukraine/The West to negotiate with people spewing such nonsense? It's very clear Putin is trying to change his rhetoric to go to what appeals to the Q-types in the US to try to unravel aid to Ukraine by getting Q-Repubs elected.

Also might be trying to unite the religious groups in Russia as the Islamic-Orthodox tensions are rising?

Putin Appointed 'Chief Exorcist' as Kremlin Whips up Satanic Panic

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-chief-ex ... il-1754912

Russian Troops Baptized in Body Bags as Moscow Pivots to ‘De-Satanization’ of Ukraine


https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-t ... tanization

Chechen Strongman Kadyrov Calls For Jihad, But Heavy Ukraine Casualties a Problem

https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/ch ... oblem.html

[Xyls]

Anyways onto actual military news. Ukraine is taking terrain in Luhansk again.

Contrary to reports of an imminent offensive on Kherson, it appears based on the threats to the dam near the city and the potential false flag Russia is doing with the evacuation (actually being a reinforcement with mobilized soliders) it looks like Ukraine has decided to slow down here and set the stage for a siege. Which I think was always going to be the smarter tactic against Russia in order to break their morale.

[caltrek]

There are consequences of committing U.S. to achieving military goals that are not then realized. One case in point:

Ex-Afghan Commandos Fighting For Russia In Ukraine
by Howard Altman
October 26, 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) Left behind after last year’s chaotic and deadly U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, former Afghan special operations forces (SOF) - trained by the U.S. and allied SOF - are now fighting in Ukraine on behalf of Russia, the last commander of Afghan troops told The War Zone Wednesday.

They are among tens of thousands of former Afghan troops - including about 5,000 former SOF - who fled to Iran last year, many of whom are being recruited with offers of income and security for them and their families, said Haibatullah Alizai, who became the last commander of Afghan's army in the days before the Taliban took over last August. You can read our interview with him about that here.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... army-boss

[caltrek]

Russian Media Floats Batshit Fake Iskander Missile Dirty Bomb Claim
by Joseph Trevithick
October 26, 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) State media in Russia today put forward a new twist on so far completely unsubstantiated claims that Ukrainian forces are planning to detonate a so-called "dirty bomb" in the country and blame it on their Russian opponents. The new and extremely over-complicated claim is authorities in Ukraine plan to build a mock Russian Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile, load it with hazardous nuclear material, and then shoot it down or blow it up over the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone.

All week, President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials have continued to push evidenceless dirty bomb allegations, in general, prompting fears that this could be a prelude to some kind of nuclear false flag operation or a pretext for some other serious escalation. You can read more about how this narrative has already been evolving in The War Zone's previous reporting on the issue here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... oncerning

Russian state media outlet Sputnik reported the new purported fake Iskander dirty bomb plot today in a brief story cited to a single unnamed "source familiar with the situation." Unlike a true nuclear weapon, a dirty bomb is a conventional explosive device intended to spread dangerous radioactive material. Experts have long debated the actual threat such a weapon might pose, but it certainly has the potential to spark panic and chaos due to the nature of its components.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... mb-theory

[ibm9000]

First of all, the south of Ukraine is an agricultural region, and we have a lot of irrigation and water supply channels, and the Russians use them like trenches,” Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov told a news conference on Wednesday. “It’s more convenient for them.”
“The second reason is weather conditions. This is the rainy season, and it’s very difficult to use fighting carrier vehicles with wheels,” he said, adding that this reduced the options for Ukraine’s armed forces.

Rain... and the enemy using trenches... who could have imagine that!

[ibm9000]

Contrary to reports of an imminent offensive on Kherson...

I thought they won that offensive already.

[caltrek]

Ahhh, so since the denazification lie is no longer working for Putin, how it has to be "desatanization". And people expect Ukraine/The West to negotiate with people spewing such nonsense?
...

One can hope that the quoted government official does not reflect the mainstream thinking of the Kremlin elite. One purpose of negotiation is to discover what bottom lines are acceptable and can be reached. Extremist rhetoric is often shrugged off upon reaching of agreements.

This is not to say that such Manichean thinking is a good sign. Still, we should also avoid thinking in such black and white terms.

[Xyls]

Master gaslighter Putin is at it again:



The no-negotiation crowd has been right all along...

[Cyber_Rebel]

^ Russia's perception of time works differently than ours. What was last month for us was like 5-10 years for them. That's why the designation for the special military operation was changed from Nazis to Satanist. They may very well have entered a time distortion field where events would be perceived differently. Maybe they jumped forward into the future for a moment; a truly dystopian picture where the West abandoned their dominant ideology for Satanic worship, naked moonlit dancing, and massive non-discriminatory orgies where virgin G.O.A.T.(s) are sacrificed to our A.I. overlord (designation Cthulhu) who controls us by base hedonism.

I mean, just look at this obvious proof, brought back to our time by Russo-operatives of what's yet to come.

[weatheriscool]

Russia Threatens a Retaliatory Strike Against Us Commercial Satellites
Source: Ars Technica

Russia has made some of its most provocative comments yet about Western commercial satellites, which have provided valuable imagery and communications data to Ukraine this year, suggesting they are appropriate wartime targets.

In comments made Wednesday, a deputy director in Russia's foreign ministry, Konstantin Vorontsov, said the use of Western commercial satellites by Ukraine is "an extremely dangerous trend." While Vorontsov did not specifically name any satellites, he almost certainly was referring to SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation, which has been used by Ukrainian soldiers for communications, and synthetic aperture radar satellites that have tracked Russian troop and tank movements. Vorontsov said:

"We would like to specifically stress an extremely dangerous trend that goes beyond the harmless use of outer space technologies and has become apparent during the latest developments in Ukraine. Namely, the use by the United States and its allies of civilian, including commercial, infrastructure elements in outer space for military purposes. Apparently, these States do not realize that such actions in fact constitute indirect participation in military conflicts. Quasi-civilian infrastructure may become a legitimate target for retaliation. Western actions needlessly put at risk the sustainability of peaceful space activities, as well as numerous social and economic processes on Earth that affect the well-being of people, first of all in developing countries. At the very least, this provocative use of civilian satellites is questionable under the Outer Space Treaty, which only provides for the peaceful use of outer space, and must be strongly condemned by the international community."

This is not the first time Vorontsov has made such comments, as he made similar remarks last month to the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs working group. However, it is not clear to what extent Russia might be able to follow through on its threat to target commercial satellites.

Read more: https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10 ... atellites/

[Xyls]

I mean if Russia wants to have every one of their satellites blown out of the sky go ahead.