One year into the war in Ukraine, it has become clear that neither side is strong enough to win the war nor weak enough to sue for peace. (As long as we keep providing the weapons).
Ukraine would need to recover roughly twice as much territory as it was able to (by being abandoned by Russia) last year, just to get back the lands conquered since the 2022 invasion.
Russia has also been able to stabilize its economy, which the IMF projects will do better this year than the UK's or Germany's. There is now a huge world economy that does not include the West, and Russia can swim in those waters freely. (Are we going to tell the World what to do?).
So, what is the path forward? In the short run, there is only one answer for the West and its allies... give Ukraine more weapons and money. (Like WWI, the next one (offensive) is the right one). Most wars end in negotiations. This one is unlikely to be different. The task for the West is to ensure that Ukraine has enough success and momentum on the battlefield that it enters those negotiations with a very strong hand. (Or not, but let the killing go on).
Ukraine's government is spending more than double what it takes in, thanks to Western aid. (Vietnam, and then the US left). Are we letting Ukraine get destroyed in order to save it?
CNN.
Let’s say that you own a house and it has ten rooms. And let’s say that I barge in and take two of those rooms away, and I wreck those rooms. And, from those two rooms, I’m wrecking your other eight rooms and you’re trying to beat me back. You’re trying to evict me from the two rooms. You push out a little corner, you push out another corner, maybe. But I’m still there and I’m still wrecking. And the thing is, you need your house. That’s where you live. It’s your house and you don’t have another. Me, I’ve got another house, and my other house has a thousand rooms. And, so, if I wreck your house, are you winning or am I winning?
At peak, the Ukrainians were firing upward of ninety thousand artillery shells a month. U.S. monthly production of artillery shells is fifteen thousand. With all our allies thrown in, you get another fifteen thousand, at the highest estimates. So you can do thirty thousand in the production of artillery shells while expending ninety thousand a month. We haven’t ramped up. We’re just drawing down the stocks. And you know what? We’re running out.
The New Yorker.
Ukrainians may be better off defining victory as accession to the European Union rather than a complete recapture of all Ukrainian territory.
Stephen Kotkin.
A new poll suggests that Russia’s war on Ukraine has consolidated ‘the West;’ European and American citizens hold many views in common about major global questions.
Europeans and Americans agree they should help Ukraine to win, that Russia is their avowed adversary, and that the coming global order will most likely be defined by two blocs led respectively by the US and China.
In contrast, citizens in China, India, and Turkiye prefer a quick end to the war even if Ukraine has to concede territory.
People in these non-Western countries, and in Russia, also consider the emergence of a multipolar world order to be more probable than a bipolar arrangement.
Western decision-makers should take into account that the consolidation of the West is taking place in an increasingly divided post-Western world; and that emerging powers such as India and Turkiye will act on their own terms and resist being caught in a battle between America and China.
The ECFR Council.
Is this thread only about the consequences for Europe? (The United States has a $19 billion backlog of arms delivery to Taiwan).
There are more than those fantasy-tweets (even if they are not around here that often now),, and things are not getting any better.
...unless there is a clear logical (the spirit of this thread) or chronological sequence tying them together.
If by "spirit" you mean "is dedicated to", 'the backlog of arms delivery', due to the war in Ukraine, is on topic? The thread is: "Ukraine War Watch", so the war in Ukraine; and I don't think the word "spirit" was the best option, but I do think there is a lot of ambiguity.
The situation in Taiwan now, due to that backlog, belongs only to a China/Taiwan thread? Only to this one as a consequence of this war? I think it belongs to both, and I think we are going to agree to differ. We might agree about how deep into the other conflict we should go here, again, your opinion about how much or my opinion about it; as clear for you as it is for me. Censorship after, not before.
(Unless someone can guide me into the right path to the "spirit").
