Ukraine War Watch Thread

[ibm9000]

Let me try to clarify... just in case.

We are not burning alive women and children (that's only the result), we are attacking the industrial capacity of the enemy, because that is how we (and everyone else) wage war.

You may dislike how this war is waged, I may dislike how war is waged, completely irrelevant, that is how War is waged. "Think big", like Nixon.

[caltrek]

Let me try to clarify... just in case.

We are not burning alive women and children (that's only the result), we are attacking the industrial capacity of the enemy, because that is how we (and everyone else) wage war.

You may dislike how this war is waged, I may dislike how war is waged, completely irrelevant, that is how War is waged. "Think big", like Nixon.

No, there are rules of warfare that some countries are willing to oblige. Including either placing their own troops on trial when they violate those rules, or allowing them to be subject to some international authority.

Yes, let's briefly discuss Nixon for the moment. Let us discuss how the metric of "enemy casualties" was widely discussed in Vietnam. How dead Vietnamese civilians were counted as enemy combatants, thus inflating the death count. How this resulted in a false sense of "winning" the war.

That this mistake was made in Vietnam does not mean that it should be repeated in the Ukraine. I guess some people really and truly do not want to learn from history.

Even in Vietnam, the My Lai massacre also involved a trial of the perpetrators. So, there was at least an attempt to set limits. You can't establish limits if you refuse to recognize the need.

That one proclaims to be against war does not excuse one from committing logical fallacies. It does not excuse one from twisting language in order employ a tortured form of logic. It does not mean capitulating to those who see no problem with attacking civilians for the sake of peace. Such capitulation will not result in peace, but merely encourage further bad behavior.

To justify an all-out war against civilians is to justify genocide. Not all wars are genocidal in nature.

[caltrek]

Russia Seeks to Revive Reputation of Brigade Linked to Recent Failures In Ukraine
April 3, 2023

Entire Article:

(Eurasia Review) The Russian Ministry of Defense is likely running a deliberate information operation to revive the reputation of a brigade which has become synonymous with recent Russian failures in Ukraine, the United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry said Monday.

According to the British Defense Ministry in an Intelligence Update, throughout March 2023, the activities of 155th Naval Infantry Brigade were highlighted via some of the most extensive Russian helmet-cam combat footage yet released; a televised visit by a prominent Russian TV host, Vladimir Solovyov; public announcements that the formation is in “high spirits (with) a strong determination to achieve the set goals”; and images showing the 155th being re-equipped with modified tanks.

The United Kingdom’s Ministry said, however, “In reality, the 155th has likely been reduced to combat ineffective status at least twice in the last six months, due to being committed to tactically flawed frontal assaults near Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast.”

The Russian Ministry of Defense’s effort to revive the brigade’s image likely reflects concern about the way in which its failures were being increasingly associated with Russian senior military leaders, the British Defense Ministry noted.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/03042023 ... -ukraine/


Russian attacks and troop locations as of April 3, 2023.
Photo Credit: UK Ministry of Defence.

[weatheriscool]

A web of trenches shows Russia fears losing Crimea

With Ukrainian leaders vowing to retake all of their territory occupied by Russia, Moscow has readied elaborate defenses, especially in Crimea, the peninsula it annexed illegally in 2014, which is now one of the most fortified in the war zone.

After weeks of digging, the area around the small town of Medvedivka, near a crossing to mainland Ukraine, is webbed with an elaborate trench system stretching several miles. The passages are cut into the earth at angles to give soldiers a broader range of fire. Nearby are other fortifications, including deep ditches designed to trap tanks and heavy vehicles.

Satellite images provided to The Washington Post by Maxar, a commercial space technology company, show that Russia has built dozens of similar defenses.

“The Russian military, apparently, understands that Crimea will have to be defended in the near future,” said Ian Matveev, a Russian military analyst.

https://wapo.st/3m1oBsi

[funkervogt]

Speaking of legitimate military targets:



Remember this guy:

Yeah, well he got his just deserts:



Love that for him. Hopefully, we see more Russian officials follow suit.

As sickening as that man's opinions were, he had a right to express them through free speech. It was wrong to kill him for his views, and doubly so to do it in a way that wounded many innocent civilians.

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Zelenskyy visits Poland to thank ally and meet Ukrainians
Source: AP

By VANESSA GERA 14 minutes ago

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his wife were welcomed with military honors in Poland Wednesday at the start of a state visit that is meant as a gesture of thanks to the neighboring nation for its crucial support in Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion.

The visit is a rare foray for Zelenskyy out of Ukraine since Russia unleased the war in February 2022. While it follows visits to the United States, Britain, France and Belgium, it stands out from the others because it was announced in advance without the secrecy of past visits.

It is also unusual that the president is joined by the first lady, Olena Zelenska. Marcin Przydacz, the head of Polish President Andrzej Duda’s foreign policy office, described it as Zelenskyy’s first visit of this kind since the war began.

The visit shines a light on Poland’s rising international role in a new security order that is emerging after Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war- ... c53e7c1e33

[ibm9000]

Explosions heard in signs of Ukraine counter-offensive.

(The Telegraph, for example).

If you see a picture of Ukrainian soldiers eating, that is a clear sign of the impending U. offensive.

[Xyls]

Speaking of legitimate military targets:



Remember this guy:

Yeah, well he got his just deserts:



Love that for him. Hopefully, we see more Russian officials follow suit.

As sickening as that man's opinions were, he had a right to express them through free speech. It was wrong to kill him for his views, and doubly so to do it in a way that wounded many innocent civilians.

Lol, he wasn't merely killed for "expressing his views" he has been active in the war zone as a participant in 2017. Also there is no free speech in Russia nor would he have been a supporter of the concept I'm sure, so spare us.

It's pretty clear this was an internal hit not something Ukraine was involved in anyways.

[Xyls]

Of course she didn't. This was a Putin ordered hit. It's a convenient way to take out the hardliners that threaten him, while simultaneously blaming it on Ukraine.

[Xyls]

Lol!

Any Ukraine Peace Talks Should Be About 'New World Order' – Lavrov

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/ ... rov-a80750

[ibm9000]

It's pretty clear this was an internal hit...

It is extremely curious how some things are pretty clear... at our convenience. (And how easily we are going to justify what we like).

[ibm9000]

he wasn't merely killed for "expressing his views"

Have you been talking to his killer?

he has been active in the war zone as a participant in 2017.

Every war veteran is a "valid" terrorist target?

Also there is no free speech in Russia

This has anything to do?
Compare to Ukraine? According to you?

nor would he have been a supporter of the concept I'm sure,

You are sure?
Is that enough for you to kill someone?

so spare us.

Again, nothing to do with a terrorist attack.
Maybe with your support for the terrorists.

Also, since when is attacking an enemy's railway station a war crime?

[caltrek]

In Ukraine, Grain Shortages Reverberate Beyond Borders
by Kern Hendricks
April 3, 2023

Introduction:

(Undark) IT WAS THE SPRING of 2022 when rockets began to land in Lyonid Lysachenko’s wheat fields in Eastern Ukraine.

The first rockets landed “a few weeks after the invasion began,” he said, crunching across one of his snow-crusted fields nearly a year later, in early February. He stopped and hitched up the collar of his jacket against the biting wind, then pointed east. “Their positions were only a few kilometers away at one point. This whole area was within range.”

Lysachenko has been farming this 1,100-acre-plus plot of land for more than three decades, and, at 70, his crushing farmer’s handshake has lost none of its strength. When he spoke of the war, though, his broad shoulders sagged a little and his smile faded.

Additional Extract:

Lysachenko’s experiences are not isolated. In September 2022, a report by the Yale School of Public Health’s Human Research Lab highlighted the scope of the war’s effect on Ukraine’s grain industry. The findings of the study, which combined high-resolution satellite imagery with machine learning and open-source intelligence, were stark.

More than 3.3 million tons of crop storage capacity — nearly 5 percent of Ukraine’s total — had been damaged, destroyed, or was within Russian-controlled territory. One of the chief authors of the report, Nathaniel Raymond, told Undark that the figures outlined in the report are conservative. Even with sophisticated technology and a comprehensive methodology, it was impossible to capture and assess all of the damage.

Read more here: https://undark.org/2023/04/03/in-ukrai ... -borders/

[ibm9000]

Ukraine’s air defences risk running out of missiles and ammunition within weeks, an apparent leak of Pentagon documents dating from February suggests, as US defence officials raced to trace how the files became public.
One of the documents, dated 23 February and marked “Secret”, outlines in detail how Ukraine’s Soviet-era S-300 air defence systems would be depleted by 2 May at the current usage rate. It is unclear if the usage rate has since changed.

The Guardian, now.

Russia's surge in missile strikes in Ukraine is partly designed to exhaust Kyiv's supplies of air defenses and finally achieve dominance of the skies above the country, a senior Pentagon official said on Saturday.
Colin Kahl, the Pentagon's top policy advisor, cautioned that Moscow also hoped to deplete Ukrainian air defenses that have so far prevented the Russian military from establishing dominance of the skies above Ukraine.

Reuters, Nov.

Even if some things are pretty clear for some people, it is too soon to know how accurate those (self?) leaked documents are. The part you like is completely true and the part you don't like is absolutely false?

Yes, "context" is important. The situation of U. is extremnely precarious, it is living on alms. How many, how soon, and how good is going to be using those new western SAM systems? A land offensive, with weeks of training in new systems, against a clear enemy air superiority?
(Why not?, you just need to break through the defence line of an enemy who has more artillery than you).

[weatheriscool]

Western special forces inside Ukraine, leak shows
Source: BBC

The presence of Western special forces in Ukraine has been the subject of quiet speculation for more than a year. But it's never been confirmed, until now.

The US Department of Defense is still dealing with the consequences of one of the largest leaks of classified material in recent years, most of it relating to the war in Ukraine.

The documents, some marked "top secret", paint a detailed picture of the war, including highly sensitive details of Ukraine's preparations for a spring counter-offensive against Russian forces.

One document has piqued widespread interest.

It says that the UK is among a number of countries with special forces operating in Ukraine. According to the document, dated 23 March, the UK has the largest contingent (50), followed by Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1).

The document does not say where the forces are located or what they're doing.

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

The UK is set to be one of the worst performing major economies in the world this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
It says the UK economy's performance in 2023 will be the worst among the 20 biggest economies, known as the G20, which includes sanctions-hit Russia.

BBC.
UK is clearly losing the war. (Just to give some context).

US intelligence reportedly warned in February that Ukraine might fail to amass sufficient troops and weaponry for its planned spring counter-offensive, and might fall “well short” of Kyiv’s goals for recapturing territory seized by Russia, according to one of a trove of leaked defence documents.
A document tagged as “top secret” quoted by the Washington Post said that Kyiv was facing significant “force generation and sustainment shortfalls” and was therefore only likely to achieve “modest territorial gains”. The document is a snapshot of the situation in early February, and it is unclear how far Ukraine, with the support of Nato member states, has been able to make up the shortfalls since then.
Another document, dated 23 February and seen by the Guardian, gives an overview of the progress of building 12 “combat credible” new brigades to lead the counter-offensive, equipped with a target of 253 tanks and about 1,500 other armoured vehicles of different kinds. Three brigades were to be generated by the Ukrainians alone, while the remaining nine were to be established with the help of the US, allies and partners.
The planned brigades were a long way from readiness at the time of the documents, with five yet to begin their training. Six of the brigades had half or less the equipment they needed to hand.

The Guardian.
(Again, even if it is an official statement, too soon to know if there is any truth in it).

Those brigades could be 60.000 (or 40.000) men, another 60 for rear services and rounding up 150.000. How many reservists got Russia?

Everyone is reading about Ukrainians avoiding enlistment?, as we all did when they were Russians?


Out of context:

Myanmar airstrike on civilians sparks global outcry as witnesses describe attack.
Death toll in Sagaing could reach 100 in what could be deadliest junta attack since coup in 2021.

Is UK sending SF to Myanmar?

Context: The use of SF in foreign wars.

[wjfox]

Ukraine conflict: President Zelensky condemns beheading video

21 minutes ago

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on world leaders to respond after a video emerged apparently showing a Ukrainian soldier being beheaded by a Russian serviceman.

"Everyone must react. Every leader. Do not wait for this to be forgotten," he said in a video address.

Ukraine's SBU security service said it was investigating the "war crime".

The Kremlin said the video was "awful" but its authenticity had to be checked as well as who was behind it.

The grainy and extremely graphic video appears to have been filmed on a mobile phone, and possibly during the summer months. It shows a man in military uniform wearing a yellow armband - frequently worn as identifying symbols by Ukrainian soldiers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65251204