Ukraine War Watch Thread

[weatheriscool]

Ukrainian soldiers killed or wounded more than five times what Kyiv has publicly disclosed

The men in uniform could show up almost anywhere, anytime.

They knock on civilians’ front doors and randomly stop them on street corners, handing out draft papers that can turn lives upside down.

Ukraine needs more soldiers — and fast. Kyiv is preparing for an imminent assault on Russian occupying forces, and while Ukraine does not disclose its casualty counts, commanders in the field have described large losses. In a trove of leaked classified files, the U.S. government recently estimated that between 124,000 and 131,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed or wounded since the start of the invasion — more than five times what Kyiv has publicly disclosed.

“We need to understand if the war lasts another year, we’re all going to be in the army,” said Sasha, 35, a casting director and amateur kickboxer who is taking a private military training course in the capital in case he is drafted. He spoke on the condition that only his first name be used, because of concerns over publicizing his mobilization status.

https://archive.ph/B2taf#selection-401.16-463.355

[ibm9000]

...a private military training course

Is that the training they get?

[Xyls]

Ukrainian soldiers killed or wounded more than five times what Kyiv has publicly disclosed

The men in uniform could show up almost anywhere, anytime.

They knock on civilians’ front doors and randomly stop them on street corners, handing out draft papers that can turn lives upside down.

Ukraine needs more soldiers — and fast. Kyiv is preparing for an imminent assault on Russian occupying forces, and while Ukraine does not disclose its casualty counts, commanders in the field have described large losses. In a trove of leaked classified files, the U.S. government recently estimated that between 124,000 and 131,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed or wounded since the start of the invasion — more than five times what Kyiv has publicly disclosed.

“We need to understand if the war lasts another year, we’re all going to be in the army,” said Sasha, 35, a casting director and amateur kickboxer who is taking a private military training course in the capital in case he is drafted. He spoke on the condition that only his first name be used, because of concerns over publicizing his mobilization status.

https://archive.ph/B2taf#selection-401.16-463.355

Why are we quoting these "leaked documents" where we know that numbers were forged by the leaker?

[weatheriscool]

[ibm9000]

...we know that numbers...

Really, we know?
And... how is that?

[caltrek]

...we know that numbers...

Really, we know?
And... how is that?

"Know" may be too strong a word, but do you really distrust Western analysts as much as you distrust Russian propagandists?

[caltrek]

Speaking of "Western" analysts:

'So Much Crap Piled Up': Why Vladimir Putin May be in Over His Head
by Alex Henderson
May 1, 2023

Introduction:

(Alternet) Militarily, economically and politically, the Ukraine invasion has been a major drain for Russia — not unlike the Soviet Union's Afghanistan invasion during the 1980s. Nonetheless, President Vladimir Putin is showing no signs of backing down.

In a scathing article published by the Daily Beast on May 1, journalist A. Craig Copetas emphasizes that Putin is feeling increasingly desperate as the war drags on.

"He's ignited a dumpster fire kindled with more than 200,000 dead Russian soldiers, whose death march on Ukraine doubled the size of his border with NATO, torched his profitable global energy markets, and recycled him as a Chinese subordinate," Copetas observes. "He's produced the country's largest budget hole since the 1990s and achieved the highest number of sanctions ever leveled against a country…. Vladimir Putin is keen on autocratic traditions and enthusiastic about keeping his Kremlin spick-and-span, but with so much crap piled up inside his fortress after the invasion of Ukraine, arresting critics and assassinating political foes, the one day of traditional spring-cleaning from the beginning of Putin's reign is no longer enough."

A Russian military intelligence interviewed by the Beast on condition of anonymity agrees that Putin is overwhelmed.

The analyst told the Beast, "The Kremlin seriously studies the long-term impact of what we might find ridiculous. Putin's decreasing reservoirs of rendered pig fat underscore the size, scope and cascade effect of his battlefield reality. He's lost more than 9000 pieces of military equipment, 50 percent of his tanks are gone, and he's facing severe shortages of munitions and components to keep warplanes in the air and submarines at sea."

Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/so-much-crap-piled-up/

[caltrek]

Here is more from “Western” analysts, specifically the White House:

U.S. believes 20,000 Russians killed in Ukraine War Since December
May 1, 2023

Introduction:

(Al Jazeera) Russians have suffered 100,000 casualties, including 20,000 killed, since a war of attrition intensified in Ukraine’s Donetsk region in December, according to an estimate by the White House, as Moscow launched a barrage of missiles at the eastern city of Pavlohrad.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Monday said the figure was based on newly declassified United States intelligence. He did not detail how the intelligence community derived the number.

He added that about half of those killed were soldiers recruited by the private Wagner Group of mercenaries, which draws much of its ranks from prison populations in Russia.

The fiercest battles in the eastern province have been around the city of Bakhmut, where Wagner troops and other forces are fighting Ukrainian troops house-to-house to try to gain control of the last remaining road west that is still in Ukrainian hands, which makes it critical for supplies and fresh troops.

“The bottom line is that Russia’s attempted offensive has backfired after months of fighting and extraordinary losses,” Kirby said.

Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/ ... -december

[ibm9000]

...distrust Western analysts as much as you distrust Russian propagandists?

I distrust the biased wording of your question.

Please, remind us how well the war in Vietnam was going for US everyday, day after day.

[wjfox]

...distrust Western analysts as much as you distrust Russian propagandists?

I distrust the biased wording of your question.

Please, remind us how well the war in Vietnam was going for US everyday, day after day.

And here we are again, with the whataboutism.

What is your purpose on this forum? All you ever do here is come on this thread, denying the accuracy of Western media and military reports. Do you have even the slightest interest in science, technology, or futurology?

By the way, I expect you to answer these questions. Don't ignore or change the subject.

[ibm9000]

And here we are again...

You do realize I am answering a comment, correct?

The point was and still is to pull people out of their information bubbles and try to get them to consider looking at objective information on the events, as in all events.

...as someone said.

"Know" may be too strong a word

Is this what you call 'whataboutism'?

Do you have even the slightest interest...

Yes.
I just don't talk about that in this forum. Is it mandatory?

I will explain again...
The B-52 is not a dive bomber. I read that in a newspaper during the first Gulf War (the paper calling it a dive bomber). Wishful thinking, fake news and proud lack of knowledge/understanding shouldn't be around that much, but they are, a lot.
"The point was and still is to pull people out of their information bubbles..." I am trying to provide some sobering up, selfishly, because I get annoyed by all that wishful thinking.

(Futurology sounds a bit like tarot).

[weatheriscool]

Russia says Ukraine attacked Kremlin with drones in failed bid to kill Putin
Source: Reuters

The Kremlin said two drones had been used in the alleged attack on Putin's residence in the Kremlin citadel, but had been disabled by electronic defences.

It said Russia reserved the right to retaliate - a comment that suggested that Moscow might use the alleged incident to justify a further escalation in the 14-month-old war with Ukraine.

There was no immediate comment from Ukrainian authorities.

"Two unmanned aerial vehicles were aimed at the Kremlin. As a result of timely actions taken by the military and special services with the use of radar warfare systems, the devices were put out of action," the Kremlin said in a statement.

"We regard these actions as a planned terrorist act and an attempt on the president's life, carried out on the eve of Victory Day, the May 9 Parade, at which the presence of foreign guests is also planned ...

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-05-03/

[Xyls]

^Yawn.

Just another sad false flag attempt by Russia.

[caltrek]

...distrust Western analysts as much as you distrust Russian propagandists?

I distrust the biased wording of your question.

Please, remind us how well the war in Vietnam was going for US everyday, day after day.

Interesting choice to go back fifty years (+ or -) to the Vietnam war. Why not 20 years (+ or -) to Iraq. then you could remind us about how Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction and how Iraq won the tank battles that were part of the invasion and thus repelled U.S. forces.

Oh wait, that is not what happened. U.S intelligence experts were more or less accurate in their assessment of relative strength of forces involved.

Vietnam was a failure in human intelligence. Trying to understand a foreign culture and the support and appeal Communism had for the natives. (Not to mention that Ho Chi Minh actually admired aspects of Western democracy). In the Ukraine we have all sorts of refuges as well as reporters on the ground to give us assessments. We also had the presence of Western reporters in Vietnam, so much so that a lot of activists concluded that that best course of action was to leave the country. That was because of the accuracy of many of the reports filed about that situation. It was the U.S and South Vietnamese governments that constantly underestimated the Communists, but that was the Communist appeal and control over South Vietnam citizens, not the number of armored vehicles, advanced aircraft, and missiles etc. that Vietnam had in its inventory. A big difference.

[ibm9000]

U.S intelligence experts were more or less accurate...

+/- says a lot. The "Five O'clock Follies" too.

I'll try again: "how the war was going day after day", all official statements and estimates... and all kind of

military reports

Like in every war, always, but, everyone reading this knows that. The first thing in their minds is that you should take everything said not at its face value, because we all studied History and we all remember that about the first victim of war...

(I maybe wrong but someone could mention that your comment was a bit off topic).

[wjfox]

U.S intelligence experts were more or less accurate...

+/- says a lot. The "Five O'clock Follies" too.

I'll try again: "how the war was going day after day", all official statements and estimates... and all kind of

military reports

Like in every war, always, but, everyone reading this knows that. The first thing in their minds is that you should take everything said not at its face value, because we all studied History and we all remember that about the first victim of war...

(I maybe wrong but someone could mention that your comment was a bit off topic).

This is what your psychopathic leader is doing to innocent people in Ukraine –

[ibm9000]

As I said... we all studied History.

[Water]

Prigozhin: Wagner Group will leave Bakhmut, Russian defense officials to blame | DW News



Pretty big. Unlike Putin and his nuke rattling, this man has been pretty consistent with what he says. From threatening to leave Bakhmut without enough ammunition, to announcing his actual departure right now. Either Russia lacked the resources to support both Wagner and their own forces and had to prioritize their own, or they deliberately allowed Wagner to bleed out in order to prevent them from becoming big enough to form competition.

Whichever is the lesser of two evils (for Russia), infighting and losing Wagner is still a big hit in their military bowels.

[caltrek]

^^^This shows that even when you stick to just Russian sources, including people like Prigozhin, the war is not going well for Russia.

[ibm9000]

Either Russia lacked the resources to support both Wagner and their own forces and had to prioritize their own, or they deliberately allowed Wagner to bleed out in order to prevent them from becoming big enough to form competition.

Those two are the only possibilities?

...still a big hit in their military bowels.

It has been made "clear" here (we "know") that Wagner has been all but exterminated, where is the hit?