2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Morning Consult: Trump +38

Trump 57%
DeSantis 19%
Pence 7%
Ramaswamy 6%
Haley 3%
Scott 3%
Christie 2%
Hutchinson 1%
Burgum 0%
Suarez 0%
Hurd 0%

https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers ... on-tracker

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Supreme Court Hands Defeat to North Carolina GOP in Election Law Clash
by Zach Zonfeld
June 27, 2023

Introduction:

(The Hill) A 6-3 decision from the Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected a bid to give state legislatures sweeping authority in drawing congressional maps and regulating federal elections, declining to endorse the so-called “independent state legislature” theory.

The majority opinion, which united the court’s three liberals with Chief Justice John Roberts and two conservative justices, preserves the ability for state courts to hear partisan gerrymandering lawsuits in congressional redistricting and review other federal election rules set by state legislatures.

It hands a defeat to North Carolina Republican lawmakers, who advanced the theory as they appealed a lawsuit involving the state’s congressional map.
The lawmakers had argued the federal Constitution vests the authority for regulating federal elections exclusively in state legislatures, meaning the North Carolina Supreme Court and state constitution had no power to block the Legislature’s approved congressional map.

“The Elections Clause does not insulate state legislatures from the ordinary exercise of state judicial review,” Roberts wrote for the majority.

Roberts’s opinion was joined by all three of the court’s liberals — Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson — and conservative Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett.

Read more here: https://thehill.com/regulation/court-b ... w-clash/

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The more New Hampshire voters see of DeSantis, the less they like him: polling

An average of polls from New Hampshire shows that voters in the state are less and less enthused by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis the more he visits the state.

Since announcing his intention to run for president in May 2023, DeSantis has visited New Hampshire on several occasions in an attempt to boost his support ahead of the first Republican presidential primary election in February 2024. It doesn't appear to be working.

According to an average of the four New Hampshire polls of the Republican primary field taken between January and March of 2023 that have been aggregated by FiveThirtyEight, DeSantis was averaging the support of 28% of Republicans over the course of the period.

After visiting the state and hobnobbing with locals, DeSantis' support has only dropped. According to an average of four more polls from between May and June 2023, he brought an average of 16% support from likely or registered voters.

There are a few reasons why this could be happening.

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DeSantis says he would eliminate four federal agencies if elected president
Source: Yahoo Finance

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Wednesday that if he is elected president he would seek to close four federal agencies as part of an effort to reduce the size of government.

"We would do Education, we would do Commerce, we'd do Energy, and we would do IRS," DeSantis said in an interview with Fox News’ Martha MacCallum when he was asked whether he favored closing any agencies.

"If Congress will work with me on doing that, we'll be able to reduce the size and scope of government," he added. "If Congress won't go that far, I'm going to use those agencies to push back against woke ideology and against the leftism that we see creeping into all institutions of American life."

DeSantis’ campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for further details about his remarks.

DeSantis has sought to distinguish himself from Republican front-runner Donald Trump, in part by moving further to the right of the former president on a variety of issues. On

Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/desa ... 45369.html

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Ohio: Trump +44% (East Carolina University)

Trump 59%
DeSantis 15%
Pence 5%
Christie 4%
Vivek 3%
Haley 2%
Asa 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 2%

https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablene ... enate-race

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Pence Furthers Split with Trump and DeSantis With Surprise Ukraine Trip
by Noah Lanard
July 1, 2023

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) This week, former Vice President Mike Pence made a surprise trip to Ukraine, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The trip draws a contrast between himself and fellow presidential candidates like Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, who’ve been skeptical of the United States’ involvement in Ukraine.

Pence is the first Republican presidential candidate to meet with Zelenskyy. Biden met the president of Ukraine in May. “America is the leader of the free world,” Pence told CNN’s Erin Burnett. “We’re the arsenal of democracy.”

It’s an interesting contrast for Pence. The former sidekick to Trump—a president who notably shifted away from the hawkish rhetoric, if not always politics, of George W. Bush’s Republican party—is positioning himself as a neoconservative. Well, sort of: Pence evoked the “Reagan doctrine,” not the Iraq war, and said that sending weapons to Ukraine was like sending weapons to people fighting communism (or what the United States considered to be communism).

While in Ukraine, Pence called on the Biden administration to send military aid more quickly. The criticism seems pro forma. In reality, Pence’s position is far closer to Biden’s—both want to arm Ukraine but oppose sending US troops to the country—than it is to his Republican rivals and the base of his party.

A poll from NBC News this month found that 52 percent of Republican primary voters would be less likely to support a candidate who supports sending more money and weapons to Ukraine. Only 28 percent said they would be more likely to do so.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... rimary/

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"Astonishingly low cash": Trump's election lies leave swing-state Republicans "effectively broke"

Major Republican donors to the Arizona and Michigan Republican Parties, who have each donated tens of thousands of dollars to the parties over the last six years, have ceased supplying funding because of Republican leaders' attempts to overturn 2020 election results, their support of losing candidates who tout Trump's election conspiracy theories and what they consider extreme views on issues like abortion, six benefactors told Reuters. "I question whether the state party has the necessary expertise to spend the money well," real estate mogul Ron Weiser, one of the Michigan party's biggest donors and a former chair of the party, told the outlet.

Despite Republicans' efforts to ramp up support in order to win back the battleground states that could determine whether they regain political power in the 2024 election, Arizona and Michigan's parties have been bleeding money in recent years, according to the outlet's review of financial filings and interviews with the donors and three election campaign experts. Arizona's Republican Party on March 31 had less than $50,000 in cash reserves in its state and federal bank accounts to spend on overhead expenses, compared to the $770,000 it had at the same point four years ago. And as of March 31, the total in the Michigan party's federal account amounted to $116,000, down from the nearly $867,000 it had two years ago. "They are effectively broke, and I don't see the clouds parting and the sun coming out on their fundraising abilities," Jason Roe, the former head of the Michigan GOP, told the outlet.

Last year, the Arizona GOP spent more than $300,000 on unspecified "legal consulting" fees and more than $500,000 on an election night party and bus tour for statewide Trump-endorsed candidates, all of whom lost in November's midterms, according to the party's federal financial filings. Separate campaign and legal disclosures show money was also paid to lawyers who represented the former Arizona party chair Kelli Ward when the Justice Department subpoenaed her over her involvement in a scheme to falsely certify to Congress that Trump had won the election, and when a congressional committee subpoenaed her phone records. Ward, who resigned from the role in January after four years, told Reuters she and her team always had funds to cover expenses and had left her successor at least three months' worth of funds to cover operation costs and a "robust fundraising operation." Seth Masket, director of the non-partisan Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, told Reuters that both parties have "astonishingly low cash reserves," meaning their "ability to help candidates is severely limited right now."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/astonishingl ... 14576.html

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