Economic and jobs news thread

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caltrek
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The US’s Credit Rating Just Got Downgraded.
by Arianna Coghill
August 2, 2023

Introduction:
(Mother Jones) On Tuesday, the credit agency Fitch Ratings downgraded its debt rating for the United States from the highest AAA rating to AA+.

The demotion, as some economists including Paul Krugman have argued, is strange and ultimately a bit meaningless. But the apparent reasons behind the decision are worth reviewing. Here’s Richard Francis, Fitch’s senior director, telling Reuters:
  • “It was something that we highlighted because it just is a reflection of the deterioration in governance, it’s one of many,” he said.

    “You have the debt ceiling, you have Jan. 6. Clearly, if you look at polarization with both parties … the Democrats have gone further left and Republicans further right, so the middle is kind of falling apart basically,” Francis said, adding “we don’t fault one party or the other for the fiscal situation.”
Francis may believe he sounds fair, even smart with that analysis. But lumping debt ceiling negotiations—in which Biden successfully averted a government default—with a violent attack on the US Capitol as examples of politicization feels unserious, an entry into the absurd whataboutism of these times. Economists and White House officials have since responded with disappointment.
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/mojo-wire/ ... owngrade/

caltrek’s comment: This reflects a long-standing tactic of Republican politicians. They argue that government is incapable of being a positive force in the economy, and then due their utmost to sabotage governmental efforts. To the extent that they succeed in such sabotage, they then point to that success as proof of their initial thesis regarding the ineffectiveness of government. It is a very sad thing that many voters let them get away with such nonsense.
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Yellen says the U.S. economy is on track for stable growth thanks to Inflation Reduction Act boost
Source: CNBC
WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said the Inflation Reduction Act, the 2022 law that spurred major investments in infrastructure, manufacturing and climate goals, has propelled the U.S. economic recovery.

“Over the past year, our task has been to transition the economy from rapid recovery to stable growth,” Yellen said. “Our path so far shows that we are on the right track, even as we remain vigilant about potential challenges and uncertainties.”

The Treasury chief touted the historic creation of over 13 million new jobs since President Joe Biden took office, recovery from record inflation and an unemployment rate comparable to the lowest in 54 years, as she spoke before the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers 357 Training Center in Las Vegas.

She partly attributed the progress to “Bidenomics,” the term used to describe President Joe Biden’s economic growth strategy that includes the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act and the IRA, which was signed a year ago this week.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/14/yellen- ... track.html
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Retail sales increased 0.7% in July, better than expected as consumer spending is holding up


Jeff Cox
KEY POINTS
vThe advanced retail sales report showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.7% for the month, while spending increased 1% excluding autos. Both were better than the 0.4% estimates.
• July’s numbers were boosted by a 1.9% jump in spending at online retailers, while sporting goods and related stores increased 1.5% and food service and drinking places rose 1.4%.
• A separate report showed that import prices moved 0.4% higher in July, more than the 0.2% estimate. However, virtually the entire increase was driven by fuel prices.
• The Empire State Manufacturing Survey slumped 20 points in August to a reading of -19, though the index for future conditions posted a sharp gain.
{snip}

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/15/retail- ... -2023.html
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caltrek
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Nasdaq Set for Worst Month of 2023 as Interest Rates Rise
by Matt Phillips
August 18, 2023

Introduction:
(Axios) Rising interest rates have hammered tech-heavy growth stocks in the last few months.

Why it matters: Tech stocks have been the key driver of this year's rally, so if they falter, the market could be set for a hiccup, or worse.

The big picture: Certain kinds of stocks are especially sensitive to changes in long-term interest rates.

• Generally speaking, these stocks tend to be companies poised to capitalize on tech trends that, while they aren't actually profitable at the moment, could potentially generate a bottom-line bonanza at some hazy point in the distant future.

• They soar when long-term rates — essentially the yield on the 10-year Treasury — fall, and tend to get clobbered when long-term rates rise.
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2023/08/18/nasda ... st-rates
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Subway agrees sale to Dunkin' and Baskin-Robbins investor Roark Capital
2 days ago

Sandwich chain Subway is set to be bought by a private equity firm, ending six decades of family ownership.

The company announced it had agreed a deal with US-based firm Roark Capital, which has brands Baskin-Robbins and Dunkin' on its books.

The chain did not reveal the terms of the sale, but Reuters reported it has been valued at more than $9bn (£7.1bn).

Subway has grown rapidly in recent years but has faced soaring costs and increased competition.

It hailed its takeover as a "major milestone" and said it reflected "substantial value of our brand".
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66603109
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Overtime Pay to Be Extended to Millions of Workers
“Millions more Americans would be eligible for overtime pay if they work more than 40 hours a week, under a new rule proposed by the Biden administration,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The Labor Department said Wednesday that workers who make around $55,000 a year or less would now be eligible for overtime by default. That would raise the annual salary threshold from the current $35,568 a year, which was set by the Trump administration. The median full-time worker in the U.S. makes around $57,000 a year, according to the Labor Department.”


https://politicalwire.com/2023/08/30/ov ... f-workers/
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Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.8% in August as payrolls increased by 187,000
Source: CNBC

The unemployment rate rose sharply in August, as the summer of 2023 neared a close with a job market in slowdown mode.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 187,000 for the month, above the Dow Jones estimate for 170,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.



However, the unemployment rate was 3.8%, up significantly from July and the highest since February 2022, and estimates for previous months showed sharp downward revision. That increase in the jobless level came as the labor force participation rate rose to 62.8%, the highest since February 2020, just before the Covid pandemic declaration.

A more encompassing unemployment measure that counts discouraged workers as well as those working part-time for economic reasons jumped to 7.1%, a 0.4 percentage point increase and the highest since May 2022. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 4.3% from a year ago. Both were below respective forecasts of 0.3% and 4.4% and another possible sign that inflation pressures are easing.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/01/jobs-re ... -2023.html
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Wilko rescue deal from HMV owner 'being finalised and could save more than 8,000 jobs'
31 Aug 2023

The owner of HMV is reportedly finalising a deal to buy the majority of the Wilko business, in a move that could save more than 8,000 jobs.

The collapsed chain's administrator PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) began consulting with Wilko creditors on Thursday on the terms of a deal with HMV owner Doug Putman, Sky News has reported. One source told the publication that the HMV boss intended to save more than 300 of Wilko's 400 stores.

This means between 8,000 and 9,000 jobs of a total workforce of 12,500 could be saved. However, details of the deal are still being discussed. Sky News reports that the HMV boss has approached financiers including Gordon Brothers, the specialist retail investor, about backing a deal.

One source told Sky News: "It's still in the balance but it is beginning to look more positive that a deal can get done." It's been reported a deal could be announced in the next few days.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/wilko-re ... 832633.amp
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^^^ I think this shows that even with mechanization and robots replacing humans, there is still plenty of work that can be done to create a full employment economy. The most important variable may very well be political leadership and political will.

What I came here to post:

Wall Street Hits Slump as Dearth of Data Puts All Eyes on Fed
Nick Rummel
September 8, 2023

Introduction:
MANHATTAN (Courthouse News) — With little economic data on which to focus, investors continued to fret over whether the Federal Reserve is done with interest rate hikes for the year, causing markets to drop.

By the closing bell on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average capped off a week’s worth of gradual losses to end down 260 points since last Friday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had similar trajectories and ending points, losing 58 points and 270 points for the week, respectively.

“We are in the middle of a seasonal slowdown and September’s average stock returns are the lowest of any of the 12 months,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at the Independent Advisor Alliance. “But once we get through this period, if the economy continues its resilient streak, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the market higher by year end.”

As is typical around Labor Day, trades were less voluminous earlier in the week and economic data was not as robust. What data was released on the short week led investors to reinvigorate their worries the Federal Reserve might resume hiking rates.

On Wednesday, the Fed released its Beige Book, which documents changes in economic conditions. In the latest report, the Fed indicated modest economic growth during July and August, bolstering the theory the central bank will “skip” its next meeting and keep interest rates where they are.
Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/wall-st ... on-fed/
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The republican party is killing America and its people just sit their with their finger up their asses.
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Inflation expected to tick higher in August as oil prices surge.
After hitting 3.0% in June... CPI hit 3.2% in July and now, the August numbers released tomorrow will be 3.6%

That's the first time we've had back to back months with increasing inflation in over a year.

Bad news is... this is going to pressure Jerome Powell to increase interest rates more...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflatio ... 43789.html


The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show headline inflation of 3.6%, an acceleration from July's 3.2% annual gain in prices, according to estimates from Bloomberg. Over the prior month, consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.6% in August, a faster clip than July's 0.2% monthly increase.

A significant rise in energy prices is expected to drive the bulk of those increases. Oil prices hit new year-to-date highs on Tuesday with West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) closing just below $89 per barrel. Brent crude futures (BZ=F) sat above $92 per barrel — the highest levels in oil prices since November 2022.
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Artificial Intelligence IS the customer. Maybe not now because of what that would cause though in 40 years time the same way it is a little awkward yet people get accustomed to having virtual reality and augmented reality in 2020s is the same way AI can be the customer buying things. When people can still get their pumpkin spice and investments paying them to live without working a day in their life the concern for customers goes away. The problem is unless you own a country and the government by that implication artificial intelligence can get wacky. So that is why the USA with its focus on keeping a human in the AI process is a little sensible.
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