Economic and jobs news thread

[weatheriscool]

Private sector payrolls rose 113,000 in October, less than expected, ADP says

PUBLISHED WED, NOV 1 2023 * 8:15 AM EDT * UPDATED 18 MIN AGO

Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528 https://facebook.com/jeff.cox.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM https://twitter.com/JeffCoxCNBCcom

KEY POINTS
* ADP reported that companies added 113,000 workers for the month, higher than the 89,000 in September but below the estimate of 130,000.
* Education and health services led with 45,000 new jobs. Other notable gainers included trade, transportation and utilities, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality.

Private sector payroll growth increased modestly in October but missed expectations, in a potential sign that the employment picture could be darkening, ADP reported Wednesday.

The payrolls processing firm said that companies added 113,000 workers for the month, higher than the unrevised 89,000 in September but below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 130,000. ... On wages, ADP said pay was up 5.7% from a year ago, the smallest annual gain since October 2021.

From a sector standpoint, education and health services led with 45,000 new jobs. Other notable gainers included trade, transportation and utilities (35,000), financial activities (21,000), and leisure and hospitality (17,000). ... Almost all of the jobs came from services-providing industries, with goods producers contributing just 6,000 toward the total. ... Firms employing between 50 and 499 workers contributed the most, with a gain of 78,000.

{snip}

The release comes two days ahead of the Labor Department’s official nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show an increase of 170,000 and includes government jobs, unlike ADP. The counts from ADP and the government can differ substantially, as they did in September when the Labor Department reported a gain of 336,000, more than three times the ADP estimate.

{snip}

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/01/adp-job ... -2023.html

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Markets Rally on Softer Jobs Data and Fed Pause
by Nick Rummell
November 3, 2023

Introduction:

MANHATTAN (Courthouse News) — Lukewarm jobs data and a pause in interest rate hikes caused investors to break out of their recent slump, with the equities seesaw flipped following weeks of losses.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average netted 1,644 points for the week, making up much of the lost ground from the previous several weeks, while the S&P 500 gained 241 points and the Nasdaq increased 835 points.

The moves on Wall Street correlated to cooling employment data released this week, starting on Wednesday when the payroll company ADP reported that private companies added 113,000 jobs last month — less than expected. Wage growth also slowed to a two-year low last month.

“No single industry dominated hiring this month, and big post-pandemic pay increases seem to be behind us,” Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said in a statement. “In all, October’s numbers paint a well-rounded jobs picture. And while the labor market has slowed, it’s still enough to support strong consumer spending.”

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in September the U.S. economy added 150,000 jobs, which was also fewer than what experts had forecast. The report similarly revised downward the last two employment reports by more than 100,000 jobs — August by 62,000 jobs, and September by 39,000 — taking some of the shine off those previous reports.

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/markets ... d-pause/

[weatheriscool]

Jobless claims dip to 217,000 and point to sturdy U.S. labor market

Source: MarketWatch

Last Updated: Nov. 9, 2023 at 8:57 a.m. ET
First Published: Nov. 9, 2023 at 8:35 a.m. ET

The numbers: The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week fell slightly to 217,000 and stayed at very low levels typical of a strong U.S. jobs market.

New jobless claims declined by 3,000 from a revised 220,000 in the prior week, the government said.

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/joble ... t-9ad70933

[caltrek]

What May be Ahead for the 2024 Economy
by Courtenay Brown
Updated November 9, 2023

Introduction:

(Axios) The 2023 economy has proved more resilient than most expected at the start of this year, but huge questions loom.

Why it matters: Major central banks' interest rate-hiking campaigns appear at or near their end, but previous moves are still rippling through the global economy.

• This week, some leading forecasters have rolled out their projections for 2024.

• The central question for next year is how that plays out — and what it will take for the world to adjust to a new regime of higher borrowing costs.
• Among the other questions: whether inflation continues to ebb and whether the job market cools down in a critical election year.

What they're saying: Goldman Sachs economists write in the bank's new outlook that "2024 should cement the notion that the global economy has escaped the post-[Great Financial Crisis] environment of low inflation, zero policy rates and negative real yields."

• Goldman's team is on the more optimistic side of the ledger, seeing only a 15% chance of a recession.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2023/11/09/us-ec ... ook-2024

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

Reuters article on this:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/mood ... 023-11-10/

[kindratii]

Private sector payrolls rose 113,000 in October, less than expected, ADP says

PUBLISHED WED, NOV 1 2023 * 8:15 AM EDT * UPDATED 18 MIN AGO

Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528 https://facebook.com/jeff.cox.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM https://twitter.com/JeffCoxCNBCcom

KEY POINTS
* ADP reported that companies added 113,000 workers for the month, higher than the 89,000 in September but below the estimate of 130,000.
* Education and health services led with 45,000 new jobs. Other notable gainers included trade, transportation and utilities, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality.

Private sector payroll growth increased modestly in October but missed expectations, in a potential sign that the employment picture could be darkening, ADP reported Wednesday.

The payrolls processing firm said that companies added 113,000 workers for the month, higher than the unrevised 89,000 in September but below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 130,000. ... On wages, ADP said pay was up 5.7% from a year ago, the smallest annual gain since October 2021.

From a sector standpoint, education and health services led with 45,000 new jobs. Other notable gainers included trade, transportation and utilities (35,000), financial activities (21,000), and leisure and hospitality (17,000). ... Almost all of the jobs came from services-providing industries, with goods producers contributing just 6,000 toward the total. ... Firms employing between 50 and 499 workers contributed the most, with a gain of 78,000.

{snip}

The release comes two days ahead of the Labor Department’s official nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show an increase of 170,000 and includes government jobs, unlike ADP. The counts from ADP and the government can differ substantially, as they did in September when the Labor Department reported a gain of 336,000, more than three times the ADP estimate.

{snip}

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/01/adp-job ... -2023.html

I don't think that such a slight deviation from the expected number will change the situation much, everyone can find a job just in a different field.

[weatheriscool]

Inflation was flat in October from the prior month, core CPI hits two-year low

Source: CNBC

Published Tue, Nov 14 2023 8:31 AM EST Updated 4 Min Ago

Inflation was flat in October from the previous month, providing a hopeful sign that stubbornly high prices are easing their grip on the U.S. economy.

The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of commonly used goods and services, increased 3.2% from a year ago despite being unchanged for the month, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Labor Department on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.1% and 3.3%.

Headline CPI had increased 0.4% in September.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% and 4%, against the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%. The annual level was the lowest in two years.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/cpi-inf ... -2023.html

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[weatheriscool]

Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in October for biggest monthly drop since April 2020

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, Nov 15 2023 8:46 AM EST Updated 26 Min Ago

Wholesale prices in October posted their biggest decline in 3½ years, providing another indication that the worst of the inflation surge may have passed.

The producer price index, which measures final-demand costs for businesses, declined 0.5% for the month, against expectations for a 0.1% increase from the Dow Jones consensus, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The department said that was the biggest monthly decline since April 2020.

On a yearly basis, headline PPI posted a 1.3% increase, down from 2.2% in September. Excluding food and energy, core PPI was unchanged, also below the forecast for a 0.3% increase. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index increased 0.1%.

The report comes a day after the Labor Department said the consumer price index, which measures prices for goods and services at the consumer level, was unchanged in October from the previous month. That set off an aggressive rally on Wall Stre

et, where sentiment is rising that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and could in fact start cutting in the first half of 2024.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/15/wholesa ... -2020.html

[weatheriscool]

Yet the single best economic president since world war II is trailing in the fucking polls to a fucking criminal and a wannabe hitler? I seriously, wonder wtf?

[weatheriscool]

UAW workers ratify contracts with Big 3 automakers

Source: Washington Post

The United Auto Workers said its members have ratified new contracts at all of the Big Three automakers, ushering in raises of at least 25 percent over 4½ years and additional perks that mark one of the labor movement’s biggest wins in decades.

The union’s combative new president, Shawn Fain, said the UAW will now turn its attention to attempting to unionize the U.S. auto industry beyond General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, as well as other employers.

“The Stand Up Strike was just the beginning. The UAW is back to setting the standard. Now, we take our strike muscle and our fighting spirit to the rest of the industries we represent, and to millions of nonunion workers ready to Stand Up and fight for a better way of life,” Fain said in a statement Monday.

The vote was overwhelming in favor of the contract among workers at Ford and Stellantis, but was closer for General Motors union workers. Five large GM plants voted the deal down last week, with some veteran workers voicing opposition about receiving a lower raise relative to others.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... tellantis/

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[caltrek]

Wall Street Analysts Predict 2024 Vibes, from Inflation to Stocks
by Matt Phillips
November 27, 2023

Introduction:

(Axios) It's that time of year on Wall Street when economists and analysts do their best to try to game out what lies in store next year.
Why it matters: The ritual publications of Wall Street forecasts provide a snapshot of widely held views on what to expect. These predictions don't necessarily turn out to be accurate — so they might better be described as a barometer of the current vibes.

The big picture: Analysts think the economy and inflation will slow in 2024, with the Fed moving to cut rates by the end of the year.

• Yes, but: There's less clarity about what that means for stocks.

Here's a quick rundown of what economists and analysts are expecting...

Inflation: It'll keep falling…

Further Extract:

The U.S. economy: A slowdown is coming…

The Fed: Rate hikes are finished…

The stock market: Most prognosticators expect a flat to middling year, though some see more upside (BofA), or potential for a sharp sell-off (SocGen).

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2023/11/27/wall- ... ons-2024

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Yet the American people want to remove the president that is doing this and replace him with a wannabe dictator because they hate gays and trans people. Pretty sick.

[firestar464]

I'm not even big on praising Joe, just WHY DONALD