Military drones - Lessons from the Ukraine War

[funkervogt]

Here's a great analysis:


Some key points:
-The effectiveness of drones is exaggerated by survivorship bias. We don't see all the videos of failed drone attacks or of drones being shot down before they can finish their missions because the human operators gain nothing from publishing the footage or because the footage is destroyed along with the crashed drone. On the internet, you only see the videos of successful drone attacks.
-The pace of military drone development accelerated during the last decade's Syrian Civil War and has accelerated again since the start of the Ukraine War.
-Drones are poised to become disruptive battlefield technologies.
-The description of highly successful drone attacks against weaker Russian units (start at the 36:00 mark) is chilling. That, and not a human-sized T-800 chasing you down, is what a dystopian future looks like.
-Efficient, cost-effective countermeasures will need to be developed. These could take the form of miniature, ground-launched missiles or ground-based light projectile weapons that can lock on to small drones and hit them with proximity-fused bullets or grenades.

Let me add that those same anti-drone weapons will doubtless find other battlefield applications. For example, if I have an advanced, automatic grenade launcher on the back of a pickup truck that has a computerized optic that can recognize drones in flight, aim at them, and shoot them down with a precisely time-fused grenade, what would stop me from aiming the gun horizontally to also hit enemy infantry and vehicles? The optic would also have the ability to recognize humans, tanks and other things.

Such a weapon sounds similar to the XM-29, which failed, but which will probably turn out to have been an idea ahead of its time.


The main video also gives a glimpse into the future of military drone technology and tactics by describing a 2016 exercise where three U.S. F/A-18 fighters dropped "bombs" that were full of mini-drones. Upon reaching low altitudes, the bombs opened up, releasing their loads of drones in the air. The drones activated their engines, formed into a swarm, and performed a mission together. That concept is a re-hashing of the WWII "Bat Bomb," which, like the XM-29, failed, but merely because it was ahead of its time.


Imagine a big bomber flying over an enemy city. The belly opens and what look like large bombs fall out. However, they lack explosives, and at 10,000 ft in altitude, they open, releasing a swarm of 50,000 mini-drones, each equipped with a grenade-sized bomblet. They all have highly advanced sensors and targeting computers, made cheap by Moore's Law. Some of them fly into electrical substations and power lines, blacking out the whole city, while others with incendiary loads crash through windows and ignite inside buildings, causing fires all over the city. Others target police cars, ambulances and fire trucks to cripple the emergency response force, while others kill random people across the city to spread terror by making sure everyone sees or knows someone who is killed, regardless of what neighborhood they live in. AI and robotics will make conventional warfare as deadly as nuclear warfare again, and give us another means to exterminate our own species.

[funkervogt]

Also, drones could get quieter in the future thanks to toroidal rotors.


A simple adaptive camouflage feature, using this technology or something similar, would also make the drones harder to see.


In the future, there will be small drones that can loiter one or more miles high, where they are inaudible to the human ear and impossible to see unless you know what you're looking for, and which can drop mini guided bombs that can steer themselves into the top of your head.

[Nanotechandmorefuture]

A simple adaptive camouflage feature, using this technology or something similar, would also make the drones harder to see.


In the future, there will be small drones that can loiter one or more miles high, where they are inaudible to the human ear and impossible to see unless you know what you're looking for, and which can drop mini guided bombs that can steer themselves into the top of your head.

Would make mirage tanks from red alert 2 and other cool stuff interesting. There was already the cool color changing BMW at CES 2023 I believe so that is nice.

[caltrek]

I suppose one of the “lessons” will be in the arena of diplomacy instead of just technology or strictly military science. Lessons such as what happens when a drone is downed in international air space:

MQ-9 Sensor Video Showing Collision With Russian Su-27 Released
by Thomas Newdick
March 16, 2023

Introduction:

(The Drive) The U.S. Department of Defense has released a video showing part of the encounter between a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper and two Russian Su-27 Flanker fighter jets over the Black Sea on March 14 that resulted in the drone being lost. This seems to confirm that one of the Su-27s struck the drone’s propeller, although it remains unclear to what degree that action was deliberate or a misjudgment.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... -released

[caltrek]

Another "lesson" will be which defensive measures are effective, and which ones do not work.

Purported Video Shows Drone Boats Blowing Up During Sevastopol Attack
Howard Altman
March 23, 2023

Introduction:

(The Drive) We are getting what appear to be new views of the three Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels (USV) that took part in a multi-domain attack on Sevastopol, home of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, on Wednesday.

The grainy, black-and-white video, set to techno music and first posted on Telegram, splices together several angles of the USVs attempting to enter the largest harbor on the occupied Crimean peninsula. As the USVs approached the harbor, some appear to have encountered an obstacle. One of the USVs hit the obstacle and exploded, while two others may have jumped over it, traveling further into the harbor. But apparently both exploded before they could hit any targets. Yesterday, a video, which is also seen at the end of this montage, looks like one explosion on the harbor may have been caused by a friendly fire ricochet.

Regardless, assuming the videos are legitimate, and they do match the general account of what happened, they offer a new view of the operation and Russia's response to it.

Russia has built up layered defenses in the air, on land, and at sea around the harbor in Sevastopol, and especially at its entrance. These have only gotten more elaborate after repeated drone attacks of increasing sophistication.

In addition to the USVs, the Russian occupation governor claimed Sevastopol was also attacked by an aerial drones as well. Ukraine, as we have written before, attempted a similar large-scale attack in October.

Read more here (includes You Tube videos and Twitter feeds): https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... l-attack

[caltrek]

Ukraine Situation Report: Huge Explosions Rock Crimean Ammo Depot
by Stetson Payne
July 22, 2023

Introduction:

(The Drive) Aseries of explosions at an ammunition depot near the Crimean town of Octiabrskoe led to evacuations amid several Ukrainian strikes on the occupied peninsula.

Towering explosions shook what was reportedly a Russian ammunition depot and railyard in the town north of Simferopol, capital of the Crimean Autonomous Republic. An air base near the town was also reportedly attacked.

(See linked article for related Twitter feeds)

Of particular note, the attacks brought rail traffic on the state-owned Crimean Railway to a halt, including the Kerch Strait Bridge. The rail line connecting Simferopol (as well as western port cities of Sevastopol and Yevpatoriya) runs north through Octiabrskoe to Dzhankoi, then back southeast to Feodosia and the Kerch Strait.

(See linked article for related Twitter feeds)

The Russian Ministry of Defense has since confirmed a Ukrainian kamikaze drone struck a Black Sea Fleet ammunition and fuel depot in the area, leading to an evacuation of all residents within 5,000 meters of the fire.

Saturday’s explosions are the most recent in an ongoing series of strikes as Ukraine targets Russian infrastructure, in particular the transport and storage of supplies. Between drones in the air and at sea, cruise missiles, and the prospect of special operations deep behind enemy lines, Ukraine continue to focus on priority logistical targets. After all, fighting at the frontline is only made easier when the enemy can neither resupply nor effectively reinforce its myriad defensive positions.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... mmo-depot

[caltrek]

Ukraine’s Rare Skyguard Air Defense System Attacked By Russian Drone In Video
by Oliver Parken
July 25, 2023

Introduction:

(The Drive) Video footage has emerged that appears to show a Russian loitering munition, or kamikaze drone, striking a Skyguard control station of the Ukrainian armed forces. The control station further looks to be part of a ground-based air defense (GBAD) system that uses the Aspide surface-to-air missile. If that was indeed a Skyguard/Aspide system, it may be one of the only examples of its kind received by Ukraine to date. The video underscores the ongoing threat Russian loitering munitions pose to Ukrainian GBADs, which the country desperately needs.

The footage appears to show a Russian Lancet loitering munition, identifiable by its distinctive cruciform wing configuration, targeting the system.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... in-video

[raklian]

[funkervogt]

Here's a related video about how the Ukraine War has shaped development of battlefield drones and countermeasures.

[caltrek]

Ukraine Attributes Destruction of Russian Ships to Innovative Use of Drones
November 18, 2023

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) “Not all of this is the result of the work of our drones,” Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said, but they have caused “quite a lot of damage to enemy ships.”

The Russian fleet has suffered “serious damage” largely caused by Ukrainian drones, according to Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk, who said the tactics have made Ukraine the driver of a new type of naval warfare.

Pletenchuk, speaking on Ukrainian television on November 17, claimed that 15 Russian ships have been destroyed and 12 damaged since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Not all of this is the result of the work of our drones,” he said, but they have caused “quite a lot of damage to enemy ships.”

Pletenchuk said this has made Ukraine a leader in “a new level of application of unmanned systems,” and is recognized as such.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/18112023 ... -drones/

[caltrek]

Russia Launches Largest Mass Drone Attack On Ukraine Yet
by Thomas Newdick
November 25, 2023

Introduction:

(The Drive) Russia overnight launched what Ukrainian officials describe as the largest drone attack on their country so far, with 75 one-way attack drones being launched, mainly against the capital, Kyiv, and the surrounding region. The drone assault has been seen as the opening salvo in Russia’s expected winter campaign attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, to inflict maximum disruption on its civilian population as the winter weather begins to bite.

Conclusion:

Ukraine has clearly been making significant efforts to make itself more resilient against Russian drone attacks this winter. However, no air defense system is perfect and the challenges of protecting infrastructure across Europe’s largest country are obvious. At the same time, the conflict has so far shown that, while attrition may be high, mass drone strikes are always likely to cause at least some level of damage and destruction, and that they always have the potential to be deadly to the civilian population.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone ... raine-yet

[caltrek]

The article below has already been cited in another thread concerning drones, but the cited sentences caught my eye as they very much apply to this thread.

Indian Army’s Drone Use: Lessons Taken from Observation of the Conflict Between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the Russia Ukraine War
by Kartik Bommakanti
December 5, 2023

Extract:

(Observer Research Foundation) As the wars between Azerbaijan and Armenia and especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict have visibly and incontrovertibly demonstrated, electronic jamming is amongst the deadliest forms of attack against ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) UAVs. Spoofing is another form of attack, which involves feeding false signals by way of simulating the GPS signal of the enemy and capturing the adversary’s receiver thereby diminishing the accuracy of munitions.

Read more here: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak ... rone-use

[funkervogt]

Imagine a big bomber flying over an enemy city. The belly opens and what look like large bombs fall out. However, they lack explosives, and at 10,000 ft in altitude, they open, releasing a swarm of 50,000 mini-drones, each equipped with a grenade-sized bomblet. They all have highly advanced sensors and targeting computers, made cheap by Moore's Law. Some of them fly into electrical substations and power lines, blacking out the whole city, while others with incendiary loads crash through windows and ignite inside buildings, causing fires all over the city. Others target police cars, ambulances and fire trucks to cripple the emergency response force, while others kill random people across the city to spread terror by making sure everyone sees or knows someone who is killed, regardless of what neighborhood they live in. AI and robotics will make conventional warfare as deadly as nuclear warfare again, and give us another means to exterminate our own species.

Looks like the video game Modern Warfare 3 has copied my idea (or just researched the same military tech trends that I have?). A feature called "Swarm Killstrek" involves a cargo plane dropping small suicide drones over the fighting arena.


I think the only inaccuracies are 1) the plane would be flying at higher altitude to avoid ground fire, 2) most of the drones would already know what their targets were from the moment they were dropped, so they would dive directly into them without stopping to hover, and 3) the drones that did stop to hover to search for targets would be impossible to shoot down with a rifle.

[raklian]

This is where high-energy laser defense becomes crucial. For it to mount a successful defense, it needs to fire high-energy beams rapidly without overheating for long periods.

[funkervogt]

This is where high-energy laser defense becomes crucial. For it to mount a successful defense, it needs to fire high-energy beams rapidly without overheating for long periods.

The drones could spot the laser and overwhelm it with dive attacks.

[raklian]

This is where high-energy laser defense becomes crucial. For it to mount a successful defense, it needs to fire high-energy beams rapidly without overheating for long periods.

The drones could spot the laser and overwhelm it with dive attacks.

A sensible battle commander wouldn't deploy a lone unit for the purpose of destroying those drones.

[funkervogt]

This is where high-energy laser defense becomes crucial. For it to mount a successful defense, it needs to fire high-energy beams rapidly without overheating for long periods.

The drones could spot the laser and overwhelm it with dive attacks.

A sensible battle commander wouldn't deploy a lone unit for the purpose of destroying those drones.

How would the commander know in advance where the drone attack was going to happen?

[raklian]

The drones could spot the laser and overwhelm it with dive attacks.

A sensible battle commander wouldn't deploy a lone unit for the purpose of destroying those drones.

How would the commander know in advance where the drone attack was going to happen?

They don't need to guess. They just need field multiple laser defense units commensurate for the size of the formation being deployed.

[weatheriscool]

Silent Arrow to develop motorized, disposable, heavy transport drone
By David Szondy
December 27, 2023


https://newatlas.com/military/silent-ar ... ble-drone/

Aerospace company Silent Arrow has been awarded a contract by the Air Force Research Laboratory's innovation arm AFWERX to develop a heavy payload, long-range motorized version of its GD-2000 glider drone capable of flying 300 nm (350 mi, 560 km).

Silent Arrow has made a name for itself by developing a series of military and civilian autonomous glider drones capable of carrying up to 1,500 lb (680 kg). These drones are designed to be carried by transport aircraft or helicopters, dropped, spread their wings, and then glide to their destination in disaster or combat zones. They are also designed to be cheap enough to be expendable.

It's an interesting design, but what it lacks is range. The GD-200, for example, can only travel about 35 nm (40 miles, 65 km) after being dropped from a Lockheed Martin C-130, Boeing C-17, or Airbus A400M transport aircraft. The CLS-300 hopes to increase this range by a factor of 10 using a motorized pusher propeller to move the boxy aircraft along.

[caltrek]

Ukraine Situation Report: Drone-On-Drone Aerial Engagements Ramp-Up
June 19, 2024

Introduction:

(War Zone) To counter the pervasive presence of drones that make it very challenging for troops to maneuver, set up defensive lines and air defense systems, Ukraine has been increasing its attacks on Russian aerial drones using its own fast and highly maneuverable First Person-View (FPV) drones.

“Several different and independent Ukrainian teams are working on systems for intercepting enemy reconnaissance drones using FPV, and judging by the increasing frequency of videos (and less than half of real events are always published), there is not just progress, but this is becoming a systemic phenomenon,” deputy of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Yuriy Mysyagin said on his Telegram channel last week.

(See linked article for Twitter feeds).

The latest example of these attacks was showcased Tuesday, when the “Signum” unit of Ukraine’s 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade released video of an FPV drone it operated spotting and then closing in on a Russian Lancet loitering munition. There is no visual evidence that the FPV impacted the Lancet, however, the video ends with a still image of one destroyed on the ground. (See linked article for more on this video.)

Read more here: https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukra ... s-ramp-up