New predictions for the timeline

[wjfox]

A lot of updates to add from these last few pages... I'm gonna be busy over Christmas!

[wjfox]

Several lunar missions are mentioned in this article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technolo ... ding-moon/

Maybe worth combining them into a single entry for 2024.

[wjfox]

"The One" has been delayed from 2024 to March 2025.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_One_(Toronto)

[wjfox]

I'm just going through and updating the 2024 page.

India's first crewed space flight delayed (again) to 2025:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Hu ... velopments

[wjfox]

I was about to delete the New Glenn, but it sounds like it may finally be launched in 2024.

It's contracted by NASA to carry the EscaPADE mission to Mars:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EscaPADE

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn

[wjfox]

2025 – First crewed flight of NASA's Orion spacecraft

(will need moving from 2024)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67928687


2026 – Artemis III crewed mission to the lunar surface

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67928687

[wjfox]

Lots of useful predictions here...

[funkervogt]

Lots of useful predictions here...

I want to see an intro to a sci fi film that opens with those predictions in text, interspersed with predictions about the rise of AGI and other technologies.

[wjfox]

2026 – The global market for vertical farming exceeds $10bn

Refs:

https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-relea ... 13561.html

https://www.precedenceresearch.com/vert ... ing-market


A few image ideas:

https://stock.adobe.com/uk/images/hydro ... =616163924

https://stock.adobe.com/uk/images/smart ... /238897070

https://stock.adobe.com/uk/images/robot ... /493706761

[wjfox]

2047 – South Korea's new "mega chip cluster" is completed

This will become an important hub for chip-making and general tech as we head into the Singularity years.

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2 ... 66948.html



Credit: SK hynix

[FuturismFan]

1,000,000,000,000 AD - The cosmic microwave background is no longer detectable

https://futurism.com/the-future-of-the-universe
https://gizmodo.com/what-will-astronome ... ow-5792757
https://www.space.com/11380-big-bang-ev ... years.html
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.0007.pdf

[wjfox]

2026 – Cultivated eel goes on sale

"The company aims to scale up its operation and have the cultivated eel on sale in about two years."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... t-revealed



Credit: Anatoly Michaello

[wjfox]

Will We Run Out of ML Data? Evidence From Projecting Dataset Size Trends

— The available stock of text and image data grew by 0.14 OOM/year between 1990 and 2018, but has since slowed to 0.03 OOM/year.
— At current rates of data production, our projections suggest that training runs will use most human-generated, publicly available high-quality text, low-quality text, and images by 2024, 2040 and 2046 respectively.

https://epochai.org/trends

[FuturismFan]

600,000,000 AD – C₃ photosynthesis is no longer possible on Earth

As the Sun heats up, the Earth becomes hotter, increasing rainfall and weathering. Carbon dioxide dissolves in the moisture to form carbonic acid, which reacts with silicate minerals in the rock, breaking down the carbon dioxide. Thus, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will sink below the threshold where C₃ photosynthesis is possible on Earth.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/0912.2482.pdf

Marchantia would be unable to grow at all 0.6 Gyr from now

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1310.4841.pdf
CAM & C₄ plants will survive longer than C₃ plants.

https://sseh.uchicago.edu/doc/Caldeira_ ... g_1992.pdf
It is possible that CO₂ levels may reach a minimum where C₄ plants can survive, even past 900,000,000 AD. Lack of CO₂ may not make plants extinct, but high temperatures will.

[wjfox]

2045 – Chinese flyby of Uranus

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-4

https://www.planetary.org/articles/chin ... xploration

[wjfox]

2044–2049 – The Sycamore Gap tree is partially restored

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68497720

[wjfox]

2034–2037 – The Orka-class submarine enters service

https://nltimes.nl/2024/03/15/netherlan ... firm-naval

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orka-class_submarine


"With modern battery technology, the new boats also have a greater energy capacity. This allows the boats to stay under water longer and operate without ‘snoring’; charging the batteries with the diesel engines. This makes them even quieter and less vulnerable to enemy detection."

https://www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieuws/ ... -aan-naval

[Time_Traveller]

Sleeping subduction zone could awaken and form a new 'Ring of Fire' that swallows the Atlantic Ocean

March 17, 2024



A subduction zone below the Gibraltar Strait is creeping westward and could one day "invade" the Atlantic Ocean, causing the ocean to slowly close up, new research suggests.

The subduction zone, also known as the Gibraltar arc or trench, currently sits in a narrow ocean corridor between Portugal and Morocco. Its westward migration began around 30 million years ago, when a subduction zone formed along the northern coast of what is now the Mediterranean Sea, but it has stalled in the last 5 million years, prompting some scientists to question whether the Gibraltar arc is still active today.

It appears, however, that the arc is merely in a period of quiet, according to a study published Feb. 13 in the journal Geology. This lull will likely last for another 20 million years, after which the Gibraltar arc could resume its advance and break into the Atlantic in a process known as "subduction invasion."

The Atlantic Ocean hosts two subduction zones that researchers know of — the Lesser Antilles subduction zone in the Caribbean and the Scotia arc, near Antarctica.

"These subduction zones invaded the Atlantic several million years ago," lead author João Duarte, a geologist and assistant professor at the University of Lisbon, said in a statement. "Studying Gibraltar is an invaluable opportunity because it allows observing the process in its early stages when it is just happening."

https://www.space.com/earth-sleeping-su ... ntic-ocean

By this somewhere between 20 and 40 million years in the future, there will be a new ring of fire that will swallow the Atlantic Ocean. Feel free to add it to the beyond 1 million section.

[wjfox]

2033-34 – Consumer-level GPUs with 1 trillion transistors

https://spectrum.ieee.org/trillion-transistor-gpu

https://www.pcgamer.com/hardware/graphi ... ansistors/

[wjfox]

Can't quite remember why I removed this prediction, but it should be added back on for 2025:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vera_C._Rubin_Observatory