2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[caltrek]

RFK Jr. Announces He Is Creating New Party to get on California Ballot in Presidential Run
by Steve Large
January 16, 2024

Introduction:

(CBS) SACRAMENTO — It's a new wrinkle in the race for president and a new party that could be coming to California. Robert Kennedy, Jr., announced that he is creating a new political party to get on the ballot here in California in his White House run.

Kennedy is seeking to crash party politics across the U.S. and here in California by filing paperwork to qualify a new party called "We The People."

His campaign announced the strategy is intended to then allow Kennedy to gain the party's nomination for president on the November ballot.

Tony Quinn has tracked state political data for decades and said that before We The People can qualify as a party in California, 75,000 people will have to register for it by June.

"Well, it's going to be extremely difficult," Quinn said. "The problem is nobody's ever heard of the party. If you're a Republican or a Democrat, I mean, you have some affinity to your own party. Getting people that are not registered to register is very difficult because it's very easy to register in California. Most everybody is."

Read more here: https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/new ... ial-run/

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

NH (St. Anselm): Trump +14
Trump 52% (+7)
Haley 38% (+7)
DeSantis 6% (=)

Republicans: Trump +40 (65-25)
Independents/Undeclared: Haley +15 (52-37)

https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian- ... ary-voters

[weatheriscool]

NH: Trump +16 (Suffolk/Boston Globe/NBC)


Trump 50.4
Haley 33.8
Unsure 5.8
Desantis 5.2
Other 2.8
Refuse 2

https://bostonglobe.com/2024/01/17/metr ... l-results/

The website above says:

“Each morning at 5 a.m., new polling data from Suffolk University, The Boston Globe, and NBC10 Boston will be released on this page.”

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Dennis Kucinich files FEC paperwork to run for Congress against Republican Max Miller

Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

Former Democratic Cleveland mayor, congressman and longshot presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich filed paperwork at the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday that indicates he’s running as an independent for the congressional seat held by Rocky River Republican Rep. Max Miller.

Kucinich has previously run for office as a Democrat. He missed the December deadline to run in the Democratic primary for the seat that encompasses western and southern Cuyahoga County, Medina and Wayne counties, and northern Holmes County, but the filing deadline for independents to seek the seat isn’t until March.


Kucinich served as Cleveland’s mayor from 1977 to 1979, and represented a western Cuyahoga County-based congressional district from 1997 until a Republican-led redistricting plan forced him into the same district as Toledo Democrat Marcy Kaptur, who defeated him in a 2012 Democratic primary.

He sought the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in 2004 and 2008, and until October served as campaign manager for the independent presidential campaign of Robert Kennedy, Jr.. Since leaving Congress, he has made unsuccessful runs for Ohio governor and Cleveland mayor.

Read more: https://www.cleveland.com/news/2024/01/ ... iller.html

[weatheriscool]

GOP Majority Flatlining As Another House Republican Announces They Won’t Seek Reelection
by Carl Gibson | January 18, 2024 - 7:43am

— from Alternet

The relentless exodus of House Republicans is continuing unabated in 2024, with five members of the majority announcing their pending departures from Congress in just the past two weeks. Now, a sixth will join them.

On Wednesday, Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-South Carolina) posted a statement to X (formerly Twitter) announcing that he would not seek an eighth term in the House of Representatives.

"Representing the 3rd District of South Carolina in this capacity has been a privilege and honor," Duncan wrote. "Now, it is time for another man or woman to serve our District in the next Congress. I will not seek reelection to the US House of Representatives."


House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) has seen his majority slowly dwindle since the House Republican Conference handed him the speaker's gavel last October. In January, Reps. Larry Bucshon (R-Indiana), Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado), Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Missouri) and Greg Pence (R-Indiana) all announced their decision to not run for another term in Congress. This came after former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California) departed the House at the end of 2023, and after the House expelled former Rep. George Santos (R-New York) following a damning House Ethics Committee report.

One Republican's exit will come much sooner than the gathering of the 119th Congress next January. Congressman Bill Johnson will leave the House at the end of this week to start his new job as president of Youngstown State University. This means that Speaker Johnson will have one less Republican vote to count on as he attempts to cobble together a government spending plan prior to the February 2 deadline to avoid a federal government shutdown.

more...

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/car ... reelection

[spryfusion]

.

[spryfusion]

.

[caltrek]

At this point there is an additional set of indicators that we need to start monitoring to assess the status of the race. (Tentatively) secured delegates are what I have in mind. Here is a site that gives a current assessment:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-p ... e-tracker

At this writing and as a result of the Iowa caucuses, the delegate count is as follows:

Trump - 20
DeSantis - 8
Haley - 7
Ramaswamey - 3

Ramaswamey has since dropped out of the race. His endorsement of Trump means that his three delegates will most likely support Trump.

Haley is positioned to overtake Desantis through a much stronger finish in New Hampshire. However, she is likely to still trail Trump.

Given ongoing poll results, I think Trump is clearly favored to easily win the nomination. Still, I suspect Haley may be counting on continued bad news from Trump's court cases, including possible loss of ballot access for Trump in states like Colorado and Maine, or even for the general election. I doubt that the U.S. Supreme Court will accommodate such wishes. Still, these cases may present the last chance for the court to exert its authority. Trump in office, with some support from Congress, could result in an administration that will not care about court decisions that would otherwise restrict their authority. His appointees this time around will be much more likely to be loyal to Trump than they will be to the Constitution. They will simply carry out Trump's orders while ignoring court findings. One wonders if the Supreme Court understands that probability. If they do, their decision on the ballot access issue may very well be a surprise.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

There's no way in fucking hell that Trump loses the primary but he isn't going to convince working class America in the rust belt to support him anymore then 2020!

[spryfusion]

.

[weatheriscool]

House GOP leadership served notice they could be booted if they blow 2024 election

Source: raw story


Story by Tom Boggioni • 1h

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is not the Republican in the House whose future hangs in the balance due to a fractious caucus, with the entire leadership facing a revolt if the GOP loses the chamber in the 2024 election.

According to a report from Politico, speculation is running rampant that Johnson may not last as Speaker until November with more than a few far-right members sharpening their knives and plotting to boot him in much the same manner they ousted former Speaker. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) just months ago.



Politico is reporting, "A growing number of House Republicans are increasingly frustrated with Johnson’s leadership and whispering about whether he can hang on to his role after 2024 — if he even makes it that far. Despite serving barely three months as speaker, the Louisianan is already facing an immediate threat from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who is openly disparaging him and suggesting she may try to boot him from the speakership."

.................................


The report goes on to note that the current House GOP leaders could also see their heads on the chopping block, with the report stating, "Broadly speaking, if House Republicans put up a lackluster showing this fall, there’s no guarantee that any member of their leadership — including Johnson, [Rep. Steve] Scalise and [Rep. Tom] Emmer — would be safe."........................

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... hare&ei=18

[weatheriscool]

Ron DeSantis ends presidential campaign before New Hampshire primary

Source: ABC

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is ending his 2024 Republican presidential campaign after failing to overtake rival Donald Trump in polling or in the early vote.

DeSantis made the announcement in a video posted to social media on Sunday.

Read more: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ron-des ... tter_abcnp

[wjfox]

Ron DeSantis ends presidential campaign before New Hampshire primary

Source: ABC

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is ending his 2024 Republican presidential campaign after failing to overtake rival Donald Trump in polling or in the early vote.

DeSantis made the announcement in a video posted to social media on Sunday.

Read more: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ron-des ... tter_abcnp

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

In GOP Primary Bubble, Nobody Gives a Damn About Climate Change
by Oliver Milman
January 22, 2024

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) In the wake of an Iowa primary election chilled in a record blast of cold weather—which scientists say may, counterintuitively, have been worsened by global heating—Republican presidential candidates are embracing the fossil fuel industry tighter than ever, with little to say about the growing toll the climate crisis is taking upon Americans.

The remaining contenders for the US presidential nomination—frontrunner Donald Trump, along with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis (who has since dropped out of the race - caltrek) —all used the Iowa caucus to promise surging levels of oil and gas drilling if elected, along with the wholesale abolition of Joe Biden’s climate change policies.

Trump, who comfortably won the Iowa poll, said “we are going to drill, baby, drill” once elected, in a Fox News town hall on the eve of the primary. “We have more liquid gold under our feet; energy, oil and gas than any other country in the world,” the multiply indicted former president said. “We have a lot of potential income.”

Trump also called clean energy a “new scam business” and went on a lengthy digression on how energy is important in the making of donuts and hamburgers. The Trump campaign has accused Biden of trying to prevent Americans from buying non-electric cars—no such prohibition exists—and even for causing people’s dishes to be dirty by imposing new efficiency standards for dishwashers.

Haley, meanwhile, has called the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s signature climate bill that provides tax credits for renewable energy production and electric car purchases, a “communist manifesto” and used the Iowa election to promise to “roll back all of Biden’s green subsidies because they’re misplaced.” DeSantis, who came second in Iowa, said that on his first day as president he would “take Biden’s Green New Deal, we tear it up and we throw it in the trash can. It is bad for this country.”

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... -science/

caltrek’s comment: Ummm…can somebody explain to me again how there is no difference between Republicans and Democrats on the climate issue?

[caltrek]

Oh, but Biden is too old to serve a second term. No problems with Trump's cognitive facilities - right?

Watch Trump Confuse Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi
by Stephanie Mencimer
January 20, 2024

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) Nikki Haley, like most candidates who have sought to deny Donald Trump the 2024 GOP nomination, has had to carefully calibrate her criticism of the former president, who remains overwhelming popular inside the party. One attack she’s been willing to deploy is to gently suggest that, at 77, he’s too old to be president again.

Trump helped make her case last night in the form of what seemed to be a senior moment, where he repeatedly confused Republican Nikki Haley, who spent years as his UN ambassador, with former Democratic House speaker Nancy Pelosi. In a rambling digression during a rally in New Hampshire, the former president blamed Haley for security lapses at the Capitol on January 6, even though Haley had left the federal government more than two years before the riot.

The moment came after Trump complained that the media never report on the size of his rally crowds, as compared with Haley’s smaller ones. But then he made his bizarre segue, as he seemed to blame his primary opponent for what happened at the Capitol. “By the way, they never report the crowd on January 6. You know Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, you know, they—do you know they destroyed all of the information, all of the evidence, everything, deleted and destroyed all of it. All of it, because of lots of things,” Trump said. “Like Nikki Haley is in charge of security. We offered her 10,000 people, soldiers, National Guards, whatever they want. They turned it down. They don’t want to talk about that. These are very dishonest people.”

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... confuse/

[caltrek]

Is Nikki Haley a Moderate or a Conservative? Yes.
January 22, 2024

Introduction:

(Vox) People often refer to Nikki Haley as a “moderate.” But what does that really mean?

In the traditional three main policy areas in US politics — economic, social, and foreign policy — the former South Carolina governor’s platform is deeply conservative. Haley has endorsed invading Mexico and increasing the age at which Americans can receive Social Security benefits. She has called herself a proud “union buster” and said that Florida’s infamous “don’t say gay” law doesn’t go far enough. She wants to cut taxes for the wealthy and hike them on green energy companies. Those positions are not extreme enough to be out of step with the MAGAfied modern GOP, but they are not “moderate” by any reasonable definition of the word.

But since the rise of Donald Trump, a fourth policy area has become central to American politics in the past few years: democracy. And in this area, Haley really does break with the GOP’s extremists. She has said Biden won the 2020 election and attacked Trump for denying it. She called January 6 a “terrible day,” supported prosecutions of rioters, and even suggested Trump should be held responsible.

Haley hasn’t made her campaign about these issues. But it’s very clear that, if elected, she wouldn’t wage war on the American political system in the way Trump would.

This kind of basic support for free elections and the rule of law would not, prior to Trump, have been remotely controversial. But in today’s Republican Party, where a large majority of voters believe that Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election, it requires a certain kind of political courage.

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/policy/24042053/ni ... democracy

caltrek’s comment: What is really disturbing is that given the choice between these two types of conservatives, most Republican voters would seem to prefer those who would pursue a more extremist authoritarian approach. They would put an end to democracy.

…as we march toward the Stupidity Singularity.