2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[caltrek]

Trump and Biden Remain Neck-and-Neck in Likely Rematch

January, 2024

Introduction:

(Emerson College Polling) The January Emerson College Polling national survey finds President Joe Biden with a 42% job approval rating, and 46% disapproval. His approval has remained steady, increasing one point since December, while his disapproval rating decreased five points, from 51% to 46%.

“Biden’s approval among independent voters has seen a four-point improvement since December, rising from 33% to 37%,” according to Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling. “Although still underwater, this reflects a positive shift. Additionally, his disapproval among independents has decreased from 52% to 45%.”

In a likely 2024 matchup, 46% of voters support former President Donald Trump, and 45% support President Joe Biden. Since December, Trump’s support decreased one point from 47% to 46%, while Biden’s increased two points from 43% to 45%.

In a hypothetical matchup between Biden and Haley, 38% support Haley, 37% Biden, and a quarter of voters (25%) are undecided.

With third-party candidates Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein added to the ballot, Trump’s lead over Biden increases to two points, 41% to 39%, while 5% support Kennedy Jr., and 1% Stein and West respectively. In a hypothetical matchup between Biden, Trump, and Haley, Trump’s lead expands to five points over Biden, 42% to 37%; 12% support Haley and 10% are undecided.

Read more here: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/janu ... rematch/

caltrek’s comment: What may be important here is the trend toward improvement in Biden’s numbers. If that trend continues Biden could easily win. Unfortunately, there seems to be a lot of zig zagging in these polls. So, a gain one month may very well be followed by a loss the next.

Why Trump remains so close is indeed a puzzle. Partly, it is the information bubble to which reactionary Republicans confine themselves. From such a bubble, it is relatively easy to shrug off all the bad news as some sort of giant conspiracy against Trump. Any finding concerning Trump is apparently shrugged off as merely a product of unfair liberal bias. Confronted with this line of analysis, reactionaries are liable to explain that it is you who his confined to an information bubble.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[Tadasuke]

I don't think Trump can win the next USA presidential elections. People have become disillusioned with him over time. He won't get enough votes in my opinion. That's my prediction.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Oregon high court says 10 GOP state senators who staged long walkout can't run for reelection

Source: AP

Updated 11:42 AM EST, February 1, 2024

SALEM, Ore. (AP) — The Oregon Supreme Court said Thursday that 10 Republican state senators who staged a record-long walkout last year to stall bills on abortion, transgender health care and gun rights cannot run for reelection.

The decision upholds the secretary of state’s decision to disqualify the senators from the ballot under a voter-approved measure aimed at stopping such boycotts. Measure 113, passed by voters in 2022, amended the state constitution to bar lawmakers from reelection if they have more than 10 unexcused absences.

Last year’s boycott lasted six weeks — the longest in state history — and paralyzed the legislative session, stalling hundreds of bills.

Five lawmakers sued over the secretary of state’s decision — Sens. Tim Knopp, Daniel Bonham, Suzanne Weber, Dennis Linthicum and Lynn Findley. They were among the 10 GOP senators who racked up more than 10 absences.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/oregon-repub ... 73d79a4bb7

[weatheriscool]

Republican Party reveals it's had the worst fundraising year in a decade

Source: raw story



Sarah K. Burris February 1, 2024 12:43PM ET

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The Guardian's Hugo Lowell noted new numbers released by the Federal Elections Commission show the Republican National Committee has just $8 million cash on hand at the end of 2023 after the lowest fundraising year since 2013, which was the year after Republicans lost a presidential race.

Donald Trump has also had money problems after spending $50 million on lawyers and legal fees. More than half, $27 million, was spent in the last six months of 2023.

Just a few months ago, the Washington Post reported that there was just $9.1 million in the bank as of Oct. 30, 2023. At that time, it was the lowest the FEC showed for the party since Feb. 2015, and it dropped further in the remaining months of the year.

"That compares with about $20 million at the same point in the 2016 election cycle and about $61 million four years ago, when Trump was in the White House," the Post reported at the time. ...................................

Read more: https://www.rawstory.com/republican-par ... 23-lagged/

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[weatheriscool]

The RNC chairwoman calls for unity as the party faces a cash crunch and attacks by some Trump allies

Source: AP

Updated 12:24 AM EST, February 3, 2024

LAS VEGAS, Nevada (AP) — Facing a cash crunch and harsh criticism from a faction of far-right conservatives, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel on Friday called for the party to unite behind the goal of defeating President Joe Biden.

McDaniel spoke at the RNC’s winter meeting in Las Vegas behind closed doors on Friday, addressing a gathering of state chairmen and other top party members in what’s expected to be a critical swing state in the November election.

“We Republicans will stick together, as united as the union our party long ago fought to preserve,” McDaniel said, according to people who were in the room and disclosed her remarks on condition of anonymity to discuss a private gathering. “We’ll have our battles ahead of us, but they’re good battles, and they’re worth fighting for.”

McDaniel’s appeal for unity comes as former President Donald Trump and his allies push the party to get behind him and effectively end the primary even though he still faces a final major rival, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. While McDaniel has fought off opponents before, winning a competitive race for a fourth term as chairwoman last year, she’s now facing Trump supporters on the far right who are creating parallel efforts that could conflict with the national party.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/republican-m ... 1a4dbf2096

[caltrek]

What We’re Getting Wrong About 2024’s “Moderate” Voters
by Christian Paz
February 2, 2024

Introduction:

(Vox) They constitute one of the most valuable, overlooked, and misunderstood chunks of the American electorate: the nation’s mythical moderates.

They’re a complicated bunch. They’re often described as swing voters, fickle ideological creatures who exist around the center of the political spectrum. They get conflated with “independent” and “undecided” voters but aren’t exactly the same. They tend to be less politically engaged than their fierce partisan compatriots to their left and right. They’re both accused of not really existing and credited with winning elections for the major parties. And recently, they’re both the reason the Republican Party has been doing so poorly in the Donald Trump era and the reason Democrats should be careful that their winning coalition doesn’t collapse.

But how can “moderates” be behind all of these confusing and seemingly contradictory phenomena? It turns out they are not a monolith. Instead of thinking about them as a single group of voters who have political opinions that average out to the center of the ideological spectrum, I think it’s helpful to look at what academic experts and researchers have found when studying them. And that is, basically, that you should break down moderate Americans into three discrete blocs.

You have true moderates, whose opinions consistently fall around the center of the ideological spectrum. Then there are the moderates who are largely disengaged from politics and hold inconsistent opinions — sometimes, a mix of extreme views from both sides that, when averaged, often give them the false appearance of centrism. And then you have a kind of unicorn, the person who is engaged in politics but similarly has a mix of policy opinions that don’t place them cleanly on the ideological spectrum or in either major US political party.

Understanding these categories is important for anyone who hopes to understand what moderate voters are — and crucial for anyone who hopes to win them over in 2024.

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/240 ... e-voters

[caltrek]

Nevada Has Both a GOP Primary and Caucuses. Why?
by Nicole Narea
February 2, 2024

Introduction:

(Vox) Nevada is doing things differently this election season, and not necessarily for the better.

Former President Donald Trump and his former US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, are competing in Nevada as the last two major candidates vying for the Republican presidential nomination. But, confusingly, they’ll do so on two separate days — and in two entirely different types of contests.

Haley will appear on the state’s primary ballot on February 6, and Trump will appear on the state’s caucus ballot on February 8. Voters can participate in both contests, but only one really matters: The state Republican Party decided that only the latter will determine who receives the state’s 26 delegates, and any candidate who competes in the primary cannot also compete in the caucuses.

If this seems to make no sense, it’s because it doesn’t. But it’s the unfortunate product of political infighting and a national shift away from caucuses after 2020, and it already appears to be leading to confusion for voters. Trump would have been dominant in Nevada no matter the format — he has a more than 50 percentage point lead on average in national polls. But now he’s assured of winning all of the state’s delegates simply because his only major opponent opted not to participate in the caucuses. And that makes it difficult to learn anything new about the depth of Trump’s support in Nevada from the results.

“I don’t want to say the Nevada caucuses and primary are meaningless at this point, but it’s certainly a foregone conclusion,” said Zachary Moyle, a GOP strategist based in Nevada.

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/2024/2/2/24057477/ ... ump-haley

[weatheriscool]

I think the moderates will break strongly for Biden because they're not going to vote for a rapist, criminal piece of shit again that wants to gut our government and steal their retirement.

[weatheriscool]

President Joe Biden wins South Carolina's Democratic primary as he gears up for his reelection bid

Source: AP

Updated 7:29 PM EST, February 3, 2024

COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — President Joe Biden has won South Carolina’s Democratic primary, notching an overwhelming 2024 victory in the state that vaulted him to the White House four years ago.

Biden on Saturday defeated the other long-shot Democrats on South Carolina’s ballot, including Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson.

The president’s campaign had invested heavily in driving up turnout for Biden, aiming to test-drive efforts to mobilize Black voters, who are a key part of the Democratic vote in South Carolina and central to Biden’s strategy for victory in November.

Biden’s win comes in a state that he and other party leaders had recommended lead off the party’s 2024 primary calendar. In picking South Carolina, they cited the state’s far more racially diverse population compared to the traditional first-in-the-nation states of Iowa and New Hampshire, which are overwhelmingly white.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/biden-south- ... c1fae5d4e4

[weatheriscool]

South Carolina - 'A 13 percent increase in Black voter turnout from 2020.'
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02/03 ... -democrats

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

California Voter Poll: Schiff Leads, While Porter and Garvey Neck-and-neck for Second in the U.S. Senate Primary
February 2, 2024

Introduction:

(Eurekalert) U.S. Rep. Katie Porter and former Los Angeles Dodger Steve Garvey are deadlocked in the race for second place in the U.S. Senate primary in California, according to a new poll on California politics and policies from USC; California State University, Long Beach; and Cal Poly Pomona.

U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, a Democrat, leads all candidates with 25% of likely voters, according to the California Elections and Policy Poll. Porter, a Democrat, and Garvey, a Republican, each received support from 15%. Other candidates are in single digits, with Democratic U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee in fourth place at 7%, the poll found.

California primary voters can choose any candidate, regardless of party, and the top two vote-getters in the March 5 primary advance to the general election. The representative survey of more than 1,400 likely voters shows the second and final spot on the general election ballot is still up for grabs.

With about a week until early voting begins, many voters remain undecided. The poll, sponsored by the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at CSULB in collaboration with USC researchers, found that 29% of likely voters do not yet know who they will vote for, including 42% of independents, 37% of Republicans and 19% of Democrats.

The survey also suggests that Asian American and Latino voters, the two fastest-growing racial/ethnic groups in the state, could swing the outcome.

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1033338

[weatheriscool]

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