2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[caltrek]

I am beginning to see a curious pattern emerge in some of these polling results. Down ticket Democrats often seem to be performing better than Biden. If the results settle out in just the right way, this could result in Trump winning the presidency and then facing a Congress controlled by Democrats. Some voters seem to like the idea of a divided government that would result in checking (what they perceive as) the extremes of both sides. If that happens, then a lot would revolve around arguments concerning the need for a strong presidency versus a weak presidency. One wonders if such voters understand what a disaster that would be for foreign policy. Of course, Biden has also stumbled in the foreign policy arena. First there was the botched evacuation of Afghanistan. Then the invasion of Ukraine which some voters bizarrely blame on Biden. Lately, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the Gaza strip in which a sort of genocide is being pursued by Netanyahu. While you and I may see Trump as far worse on some or all of these issues, some voters may not see it that way.

Within Congress, whether the Democrats retain control of the Senate could be crucial. If they are not in a position to block the most objectionable of Trump appointees, he could place in office those who pass a loyalty test. Meaning that they are likely to be more loyal to Trump then they are to the Constitution. Some very ugly results could develop from such a situation.

At any rate, at this point there are several possible outcomes. Biden's funding advantage combined with ongoing legal troubles for Trump could allow a Democratic sweep. There is also a strong possibility that a Biden win could be accompanied by loss of control in the Senate. That would give a lot of leverage to a handful of "moderate" Republican Senators.

It is rather maddening that so many alternatives seem plausible. We are indeed cursed to be living in such interesting times.

[weatheriscool]

I think Biden is fucked. I really and truly wish newsom or witmore would have won and Biden would have stepped down. 81 is too fucking old.

Here is a michigan poll showing the criminal ahead. SAy good bye to LGBT rights in this country. Thanks a lot Biden.

[spryfusion]

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[firestar464]

I think Biden is fucked. I really and truly wish newsom or witmore would have won and Biden would have stepped down. 81 is too fucking old.

Here is a michigan poll showing the criminal ahead. SAy good bye to LGBT rights in this country. Thanks a lot Biden.

It is worth noting that 40% didn't back him in the SC primary. That is no big deal regarding the primary, but Raw Story experts said that means some percent of the 40% may not back him in the general election (IMO if true, it would be 2-4%). Let's hope that holds true.

[weatheriscool]

[spryfusion]

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[caltrek]

Climate and the 2024 Election
by Marcus Baram
February 27, 2024

Introduction:

(Capital & Main) In the wake of the hottest year on record, with fossil fuel production increasing and sea levels rising, the stakes for the climate couldn’t be higher in this year’s elections.

In the presidential contest, the contrast is distinct. President Joe Biden’s massive climate initiatives and tougher environmental regulations are sure to drive turnout on both sides of the political aisle. And likely Republican nominee Donald Trump’s promises to pull the country out of the Paris climate accord again, aggressively “drill baby drill” and repeal the Inflation Reduction Act are making headlines.

In previous election cycles, climate change was typically low on the list of voters’ concerns and largely ignored by the candidates. But it was a powerful predictor of voters’ behavior — helping boost Democrats in recent elections, according to a new study. Climate change likely cost Republicans the 2020 election, according to researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder Center for Environmental Futures, helping pull Democrats, independents, moderate Republicans and younger voters to the polls.

The differences between the parties have grown even more stark in recent years. Back in 2008, then-Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and former Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich sat on a couch outside the U.S. Capitol for a TV ad. “We don’t always see eye to eye,” Pelosi said, to which Gingrich replied, “But we do agree our country must take action to address climate change.”

Times have changed. Now, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll, 78% of Democrats view climate change as a major threat, compared to only 23% of Republicans.

Read more here: https://capitalandmain.com/record-heat ... lections

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

Opinion: Progressives’ Plan B to avoid a Trump-Biden rematch

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB1iY2mQ

tldr we choose someone else (no worries, we'll figure it out)

[weatheriscool]

[spryfusion]

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[caltrek]

Delegate count as of this writing:

Trump: 122

Haley: 24

DeSantis: 9

Ramaswamy: 3

Source: https://www.270towin.com/2024-republica ... candidate

So far, Haley picked up four (4) delegates in Michigan, while Trump won twelve (12) delegates. There are still an additional 39 delegates to be awarded through a convention process. This is complicated by the fact that two rival factions have emerged in Michigan meaning that there will be two rival state conventions. It is unclear how this might affect the outcome in terms of number of delegates allocated to each candidate.

At this point, it may seem like a waste of time to be monitoring the delegate race in that Trump is now the over-whelming favorite to win. I still find it interesting because in the future that might not always be the case. Two or more evenly matched candidates could easily end up in a race that is determined by how the primaries and caucuses are conducted. This is actually true of both parties, except that Trump is not winning 100% of the Republican delegates. So that helps to gives a better picture of what might happen under different circumstances.

There is also the issue of what the composition of the Republican convention will look like. Haley does not have to control a majority of delegates to embarrass Trump. Credential fights are also likely to be a source of apparent chaos. That apparent chaos can often be a turn off for the viewing public. A significant minority of delegates disgusted with Trump could communicate a message concerning the lack of unity in the party. That could affect turnout or even encourage voters to cross over to the Democrats if that party seems more orderly in its deliberations.

Television and other modern media coverage has greatly changed what the public will tolerate. In the "good old days" voting at conventions might drag on for up to a hundred or so rounds before a candidate was eventually selected. The headlines might have screamed about how many rounds of voting occurred, but voters did not witness the spectacle the way they do in this (post?) modern age. The impact on voter opinions was not as great. There was more of a tendency to look at the qualifications of the candidate actually selected and not much concern about a sloppy process. Not so today. In current times, the perception of a well-run convention is of extreme importance.

Even such things as the timing of acceptance speeches can be affected by a contested convention. This can affect whether such speeches are given in prime time. So, Trump wants to gain as much control over the process as possible. Something that involves more than just control of 51% of the delegates.

[caltrek]

Crypto Super PAC Unloads on Porter in California
by Stephen Neukam
February 28, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) Ads urging cryptocurrency owners to vote against Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) in the California Senate primary will hit social media platforms Wednesday, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The super PAC Fairshake, backed by cryptocurrency industry leaders, has spent millions in the primary to try to prevent the progressive Porter from advancing to the runoff in next Tuesday's election.

• The targeted digital splash from Fairshake will push the anti-Porter ads directly to crypto owners ahead of next Tuesday's primary, Axios has learned.
• The ad blitz is part of a larger cash splash by Fairshake in the race, where it has already spent over $6 million.
• Crypto owners tend to be younger, a key voter block for Porter in the California Senate primary.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/02/28/fairs ... ia-senate

[caltrek]

Ms. Murphy is running for the U.S. Senate to represent New Jersey.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]