Will technology ever revert to incremental progress?

Talk about scientific and technological developments in the future
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Tadasuke
Posts: 574
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

road transport 🚚 size/length/volume/dimensions/tonnage

Post by Tadasuke »

funkervogt wrote: ↑Sun Apr 07, 2024 6:39 pm It might lower shipping costs.
When oversimplifying, road transport went from this:
Image

To this:
Image

And it doesn't really get any bigger, because it tends to get totally impractical after this 50-wheeler truck.

Just like German Panzerkampfwagen VIII Maus (188 tons) from 1941 or German Panzerkampfwagen E-100 (123 tons) from 1943 were highly impractical. Panzer VIII Königstiger (68.5 tons) from 1943 was the practical maximum and Abrams or Merkava Mk 4 tanks weight about as much. It's not a coincidence that tanks haven't got heavier in the last 81 years.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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Vakanai
Posts: 320
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2022 10:23 pm

Re: Will technology ever revert to incremental progress?

Post by Vakanai »

I mean, it feels like most technology that isn't related to AI is still very much trapped in the era of only incremental progress. Like every time I hear about some amazing progress, it's something to do with AI. Other things are progressing, but none of it feels any faster than it has been for the last decade or so. Everything seems to be moving at this glacial slow pace except for AI which is probably going to reach the AGI threshold within the next few years almost assuredly.
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