Ukraine War Watch Thread

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

*only near Kharkiv

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/3 ... a-00160731

[Cyber_Rebel]

Being completely honest here, I really do not like this escalation. Not too long ago, it was mostly agreed that leaving the war as a defensive one without striking directly into Russia with aided weapons was the sensible approach. If Ukraine pushes too much or strikes something considered too valuable, Russia may seek further escalation itself.

I'm not saying to bow to Russian demands, either, but a peace deal of some sort is much preferable than what could be seen as striking within the territory of a nuclear armed state.

[raklian]

Problem is any peace deal won't be agreed by either Ukraine or Russia. At this point, it's one of capitulation by either that will move us forward to a conclusion to this conflict.

[firestar464]

Being completely honest here, I really do not like this escalation. Not too long ago, it was mostly agreed that leaving the war as a defensive one without striking directly into Russia with aided weapons was the sensible approach. If Ukraine pushes too much or strikes something considered too valuable, Russia may seek further escalation itself.

I'm not saying to bow to Russian demands, either, but a peace deal of some sort is much preferable than what could be seen as striking within the territory of a nuclear armed state.

Unfortunately strikes inside Russia are necessary to protect against glide bombs. Furthermore, they've conducted many drone strikes on stuff. The only difference is the weapons being used, as well as the information operations Russia's conducting.

[wjfox]

Moscow warns West after Ukraine told it can hit Russia with Western weapons

19 minutes ago

Russia has accused Nato and the US of "provoking a new level of tension" after the US and Germany became the latest allies to let Ukraine's military to use Western-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia.

A Berlin spokesman said Germany was convinced Ukraine had the right to defend itself from Russia, especially from cross-border attacks on its second largest city Kharkiv.

US officials said American-supplied weapons could be used to counter Russian fire near the Kharkiv region, either where Russian forces were "hitting them or preparing to hit them".

[...]

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Nato countries, especially the US and several European countries, had "entered a new round of escalating tension and they are doing this deliberately", in remarks quoted by the Tass news agency.

"They are in every possible way provoking Ukraine to continue this senseless war."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceqq2zn3zw6o

[ibm9000]

France keeps talking about sending instructors... and then troops to protect those instructors? ..and then the aircraft to protect the troops?

“The President recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S.-supplied weapons for counter-fire purposes in the Kharkiv region so Ukraine can hit back against Russian forces that are attacking them or preparing to attack them." "Our policy with respect to prohibiting the use of ATACMS or long range strikes inside of Russia has not changed.”
(The "preparing" is a wide concept).

What if Russia decides to attack (on international air space) the means to provide intelligence for those attacks?
The situation is getting more interesting by the minute.

[ibm9000]

"
Unfortunately strikes inside Russia are necessary to protect against glide bombs. Furthermore, they've conducted many drone strikes on stuff. The only difference is the weapons being used, as well as the information operations Russia's conducting.
"

How "unfortunate" exactly? Are they "necessary"? Now? Against glide bombs, suddenly/only? The "only" difference, are you sure?
Yes, UKR has being attacking airbases before. UKR needs NATO to attack, any conclusion?

[ibm9000]

Problem is any peace deal won't be agreed by either Ukraine or Russia. At this point, it's one of capitulation by either that will move us forward to a conclusion to this conflict.

I completely disagree, specially with "capitulation". As soon as US tells UKR to start serious negotiations, UKR will do, because UKR has no weapons to fight this war.
UKR is the losing (invaded, no weapons, no money -and not recruiting those 300-500k soldiers, meaning even more money, even more weapons, even more time) side, it will have to take losses and US/EU could do a lot to ameliorate those losses.

In what fantasy is UKR not the losing side? Vae victis!
Nothing personal, just every war.

[raklian]

Problem is any peace deal won't be agreed by either Ukraine or Russia. At this point, it's one of capitulation by either that will move us forward to a conclusion to this conflict.

I completely disagree, specially with "capitulation". As soon as US tells UKR to start serious negotiations, UKR will do, because UKR has no weapons to fight this war.

The United States has already declared it is up to Ukraine how it wants to negotiate. If Ukraine doesn't want to negotiate or agree to Russia's terms, that's the end of it.

[Time_Traveller]

Ukraine begins striking Russia with US weapons as northern front ‘stabilised’

June 3, 2024 1:24 pm



Ukraine has begun striking targets inside Russia with US weapons including Himars rockets, according to sources on both sides and open source investigators, after the White House granted permission for it to do so last week.

Kyiv’s shelling with the use of US weapons systems have destroyed a Russian base, including an Iskander missile launcher, in the border region of Belgorod, Ukrainian military bloggers reported late on Sunday.

Local authorities in Russia have claimed the attack had struck a market in the town of Shebekino. Six people were injured in the incident, according to the regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov.

Russian military blogger Two Majors reported “the use of Himars rockets, including on the border territory of Belgorod region”, claiming the barrage had struck gas stations and power lines.

Brady Africk, a satellite imagery analyst at the American Enterprise Institute think-tank in Washington, geolocated a burning warehouse “less than 15 kilometres from the front line in Kharkiv”, which matched the position of the reported attack in Shebekino.

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/ukraine- ... ns-3088510

[ibm9000]

Problem is any peace deal won't be agreed by either Ukraine or Russia. At this point, it's one of capitulation by either that will move us forward to a conclusion to this conflict.

I completely disagree, specially with "capitulation". As soon as US tells UKR to start serious negotiations, UKR will do, because UKR has no weapons to fight this war.

The United States has already declared it is up to Ukraine how it wants to negotiate. If Ukraine doesn't want to negotiate or agree to Russia's terms, that's the end of it.

"On Monday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters, including from The War Zone, that nothing is set in stone as far as future use of U.S. donated munitions.
While the U.S. prohibition on Ukraine using [Army Tactical Missile System] ATACMS or long-range strikes inside of Russia "has not changed” for now, Kirby left the door open for future adjustments of that policy."

"The United States has already declared..."

[ibm9000]

"(The "preparing" is a wide concept)."
Like attacking AD around Belgorod.

There are new Washington Post articles about untrained and high casualties on the UKR side; I will try to get them.

[ibm9000]

"Wherever the new soldiers come from, Ukrainian field commanders said that because training is so deficient, they must often devote weeks to teaching them basic skills, such as how to shoot.
Russia has made gains this year in large part because Ukraine’s military doesn’t have enough troops to defend against relentless assaults, soldiers say, while the government has been slow to ramp up its mobilization efforts.
Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, had proposed drafting close to 500,000 people, a figure Zelensky publicly rejected by saying that he had not been shown evidence that it was necessary and that Ukraine would struggle financially to pay so many new soldiers’ salaries.
An officer who has spent more than a year instructing new soldiers at one of Ukraine’s facilities said the training centers are low on Soviet-caliber ammunition because it is being saved for troops on the battlefield. That means recruits get little experience firing live rounds.
"We don’t have a proper training system in place," the officer continued, adding that Ukraine needs its instructors to be taught by NATO trainers to condense the standard two-month basic training into one month. (Mine was three months).
Some assault brigades might devote personnel to live practically full time near training centers, the sergeant said, to quickly snatch up the youngest, fittest, most motivated men. The officer who was an instructor at a training center confirmed that some brigades indeed plot for first dibs."
WP

[ibm9000]

Maybe Russia could provide Cuba with long range missiles...

Cuba has the right to defend itself, right? Attacking targets in the agressor's territory.

[wjfox]

Maybe Russia could provide Cuba with long range missiles...

Cuba has the right to defend itself, right? Attacking targets in the agressor's territory.

I am getting very close to banning you again. Permanently, this time.

[ibm9000]

France will train and equip one brigade (3 months?).
France will provide aircraft (Mirage 200-5, how many of them not announced) and will train their pilots.

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

So we're expected to believe that nearly 1/5th of all Ukrainian casualties in the last 119 weeks have occurred in the last week?

Edit: The tweet even includes a community note, showing it's propaganda.

Please check your sources more carefully. This isn't the first time you've posted fake news.

[ibm9000]

wjfox
Do you see this, more elaborate, Russian policy even if you don't agree with it?

"A reaction to western countries giving Ukraine permission to strike Russian soil with western long range weapons but, instead of reacting towards Ukraine, reacting towards those western countries that have chosen to take this step by suggesting that since those countries have made the world less safe for Russia by providing this type of permission and support for Ukraine, Russia might make the world less safe for western countries by allowing the proliferation of dangerous missile technology either as a technology transfer or as a sale of finished products."

Just as a "policy", nothing about its legitimacy, just as escalation.