2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[spryfusion]

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[wjfox]

Joe Biden Favored to Beat Donald Trump in 538 Election Forecast

Updated Jun 11, 2024 at 10:05 AM EDT

President Joe Biden is the favorite to defeat Donald Trump in the 2024 election, according to a forecast model.

Polling and forecasting website 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, said that when run through a prediction simulation, Biden won November's race 53 times out of 100, with Trump coming out on top 47 times out of 100.

The simulation forecast explores likely election outcomes based on several factors, including adjusted polling averages, economic and political indicators, and demographic data.

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-beat ... 24-1911231

[Cyber_Rebel]

I don't really say much in regard to politics these days, but about 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/ ... p-forecast


If I were to take their current projections purely at face value, Biden has worse perceived odds than Hillary did in 2016. 2020 can be seen as an outlier here, due to both the pandemic (mainly) and Trump being incumbent. Honestly, I really do not see things going in a "positive" (depending on your viewpoint) direction unless there is some substantive policy change in-between now and November which materially improves people's living standards.

[firestar464]

I mean Joe is marginally leading in the polls rn, so IDK. We'll see

[weatheriscool]

[spryfusion]

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[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

^^^Another example of how electing Trump and a Republican Congress would have negative effects upon us all. In this case, all of us living here in the United States. This is especially frightening in that is clear a Trump administration would act to foreclose our options to even protest things like the poisoning of our food supply and environment, the restriction of our right to vote to certain segments of the population, and even our freedom of speech. Our vote in this election will be a vote on democracy itself, or at least who we think is most willing to protect our democracy. The Big Lies of a stolen election and unfair treatment against Trump in the court system should be understood for what they are.

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Watch Congressman Nail GOP's Double Standard on Hunter Biden Conviction
by Walter Einenkel
June 11, 2024

Introduction:

(Daily Kos) Democrats aren’t going to let Republicans get off easy with their hypocrisy on Hunter Biden’s felony conviction. During the GOP-led House Rules Committee meeting Tuesday, Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland called out the difference between the GOP’s response to the convictions of Hunter Biden and Donald Trump.

“Compare and contrast the difference in reaction between the Republicans and the Democrats,” he said. “The Republicans are attacking our entire system of justice and the rule of law because they don't like the way that one case came out, whereas the son of the President of the United States is prosecuted, and I don't hear a single Democrat crying foul.”

Raskin provided a simple explanation as to why Democrats aren’t complaining, screaming, and attacking the court system in the wake of Hunter Biden’s conviction.

“We believe in the rule of law. We believe in the justice system, and we stand by it,” he said.

Hunter Biden was just convicted of every single count that was brought against him by the U.S. Department of Justice. I've not heard a single Democrat anywhere in the country cry, fraud, cry fixed, cry rigged, or cry kangaroo court, or any of the many epithets that our colleagues have mobilized against the U.S. Department of Justice and our federal court system—despite the fact that Donald Trump was not even tried in federal court. That was at the state level.

Read more here: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/ ... ium=email

[weatheriscool]

These are not numbers you want if you want to be reelected. I am in serious doubt.

[spryfusion]

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[caltrek]

Representative Nancy Mace Defeats Challenger in GOP South Carolina Primary
by Andrew Solender
June 11, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) defeated her Republican primary challenger Catherine Templeton on Tuesday, according to AP.

Why it matters: Mace has emerged as a notable wild card during her two terms in Congress, bewildering many of her GOP colleagues last year by voting to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

State of play: Mace was supported by former President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), but Templeton was endorsed by Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) and had financial backing from McCarthy.

• Templeton served as secretary of South Carolina's department of labor under former Gov. Nikki Haley.

• Mace, who was first elected to Congress in 2020, heavily out-raised Templeton, with $2.2 million to Templeton's $660,000 as of late May, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/06/12/nancy ... empleton

[caltrek]

Incumbent William Timmons Ekes Out Win Over Challenger Adam Morgan in South Carolina District 4 GOP Primary
by David Ferrara
June 11, 2024

Introduction:

(The Post and Courier) GREENVILLE — Incumbent U.S. Rep. William Timmons narrowly fended off State Rep. Adam Morgan to hold his place as the Republican nominee for the District 4 seat he has held for the past six years.

Timmons secured the close race with 36,502 votes compared to Morgan's 34,235, according to unofficial election results from Greenville and Spartanburg counties finalized just before midnight June 11.

Capping off a race full of tit-for-tat jabs, specter of scandal and a blurred line between fact and fiction, the three-term congressman faced a stiff primary challenge from the ultraconservative S.C. Freedom Caucus chairman.

The Upstate district encompasses both Greenville and Spartanburg counties. Timmons won Spartanburg County by a large enough margin to cover up a 2,000-vote loss in Greenville County.

Now Timmons will face Democratic candidate Kathryn Harvey and Constitution Party candidate Mark Hackett in the general election in November.

Read more here: https://www.postandcourier.com/greenvi ... 52cf.html

[firestar464]

Republicans Somehow Find Worst Possible Nominee to Replace Ken Buck

https://newrepublic.com/post/180267/gre ... olent-past

[caltrek]

AP: Drew Johnson, Mark Robertson, John Lee Win Nevada Primaries for Congress
by Jessica Hill
June 12, 2024

Introduction:

(Las Vegas Review Journal) Drew Johnson, Mark Robertson and John Lee won in their respective congressional primaries, The Associated Press has determined.

Former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee and David Flippo was close Wednesday night before AP called the race for Lee. He had 50.5 percent to Flippo’s 43.5 percent when new results were posted about 8:30 p.m.

Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District

Johnson, a conservative policy analyst, won the primary for Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, The Associated Press reported Tuesday night, and he will face off against Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in November.
…

Further extract:

Nevada’s 1st Congressional District

Retired U.S. Army Col. Mark Robertson will get another chance to defeat longtime Democratic Rep. Dina Titus. Robertson, who previously ran against Titus in 2022, won his primary race Tuesday night, receiving 48.2 percent of the vote to restaurateur Flemming Larsen’s 39.1 percent as of Wednesday night.

“I have beaten Mr. Robertson before and I look forward to beating him again this November,” Titus said in a statement Tuesday night. “Southern Nevadans have already rejected Robertson’s plans to ban abortion nationwide, eliminate the Department of Education, and cut Social Security and Medicare.”

Read more here: https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/pol ... primaries

[caltrek]

Sam Brown Wins Nevada Senate Primary to Take On Jacky Rosen
by Jessica Piper
June 12, 2024

Introduction:

(Politico) Former Army Capt. Sam Brown easily won the GOP nomination Tuesday to challenge Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in Nevada, another victory for national Republicans in their effort to set up their preferred matchups in swing states this year.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee backed Brown from the get-go, and he had been widely expected to win. But Jeffrey Gunter, a dermatologist and former ambassador to Iceland under former President Donald Trump, self-funded a campaign that became a thorn in the national GOP’s side in one of several races that will help decide control of the U.S. Senate.

An Army veteran, Brown was nearly killed in Afghanistan in 2008 after his unit was struck by an improvised explosive device; he survived with severe burns on 30 percent of his body and visible scarring and was awarded a Purple Heart. He later launched a business providing medication to veterans.
Brown previously ran for Senate in Nevada in 2022, losing the GOP primary to former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who went on to lose to Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in one of the closest races in the country that year. This time, Brown had early national backing to go with his own strong fundraising. And he got a last-minute endorsement from Trump on Truth Social shortly after Trump rallied supporters in Las Vegas on Sunday — infuriating Gunter.

Additional extract:

Democrats have prepared for months to take on Brown, and Rosen’s campaign released an ad last month going after him on abortion rights. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released another spot Tuesday night characterizing Brown as a “MAGA extremist” and highlighting comments he made in 2022 suggesting support for reopening Yucca Mountain to store nuclear waste.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... gNewsSerp

[caltrek]

AP Calls Republican U.S. Race in North Dakota for Julie Fedorchak
by Danielle Webster
June 11, 2024

Introduction:

(North Dakota) With 72 percent of the votes in, the Associated Press has called the race for the Republican nomination for US House for Julie Fedorchak.

Additional extract:

After a lot of back and forth at the ND-GOP convention in April, Fedorchak and former legislator Rick Becker decided to side-step the convention all together and vie for the position on the primary ballot.

The ND-GOP endorsed Alex Balazs for US House.
…
At the time of this posting, Fedorchak has 31,502 votes or just under 46 percent.
Becker has 20,116 votes, or just over 29 percent.
Mund has 13,731 votes, or just under 20 percent.
Balazs has 2,749 votes, or 4 percent.
Mohr has 586 votes, or 0.85 percent.

For more North Dakota results: https://news.prairiepublic.org/live-up ... -election

[spryfusion]

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