2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Reuters/ipsos: Trump +2
Trump 41
Biden 39

Net 4 point swing to trump

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... onal-poll/


If Trump can win Pa and one of wis or mich with the easy gains of ga and az = win. The polls strongly suggest that this will probably be the case or very close.

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The congressional ballot also suggest very bad news for the democrats. IF this holds the republicans could gain the senate with 50-51 seats and hold onto a 2-3 house majority with Trump at the top.

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This with either mich or wis = 4 more years of Trump.

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Trump Endorses Larry Hogan in Tight Maryland Senate Race
by Sophia Cai
June 13, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) Why it matters: Trump's comments to Fox News mark a surprising turn in Trump's posture toward the moderate Republican particularly after Hogan told voters to respect the jury's verdict in the New York hush money case.

What we're watching: "I'd like to see him win. I think he has a good chance to win… I know other people made some strong statements, but I can just say from my standpoint, I'm about the party and I'm about the country. And I would like to see him win," Trump told Fox News.

• It's a remarkable departure from the frustration that his co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita and RNC co-chair Lara Trump had for Hogan after he posted on X asking Americans to respect the legal process, minutes before a Manhattan jury found Trump guilty on 34 felon charges.

• "You just ended your campaign," LaCivita told Hogan on X.

Between the lines: Trump very rarely shows any goodwill toward candidates who do not support him, but he made an exception for Hogan because flipping Maryland's open Senate seat would go a long way in helping Republicans regain control of the Senate.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/06/13/trump ... nd-senate

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FAU/Mainstreet Poll Shows Trump’s Lead Over Biden Shrinks in Florida’s Election Battle
June 12, 2024

Introduction:

(Eurekalert) Former U.S. President Donald Trump continues to hold an advantage over incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden among Florida voters who seem divided on culture war issues but united on economic concerns, according to the latest findings from the FAU Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research. The release of today’s poll also includes a video analysis of the results, featuring Antonio Fins, politics editor at The Palm Beach Post, and Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., co-director of the PolCom Lab. The video can be viewed at faupolling.com.

Trump Maintains Lead over Biden in Florida, But Gap Narrows

The poll of Florida voters found that 43% of likely voters expressed support for Trump, compared to 37% backing Biden. Another 10% favored Robert Kennedy Jr., while only 6% remain undecided. This reflects a slight tightening from April when Trump led Biden 49% to 40%.
“While Trump is still in front, these numbers suggest Biden has made modest gains and kept the race competitive in the nation’s largest swing state,” said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU.

Additional extract:

Mucarsel-Powell Mounts Surge, Closing in on Scott for Senate Seat

In the Florida U.S. Senate race, the potential matchup between Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott and former Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has tightened considerably since the spring. Among likely voters, Scott narrowly leads 45 to 43, which is within the poll’s margin of error. Scott had led Mucarsel-Powell by 17 points in April.

“Mucarsel-Powell was largely unknown in earlier surveys,” said Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU. “However, as voters have been introduced to her, she has been gaining in the race. If this trend holds, it could be close in November.”

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1048037

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Biden and Trump campaigns agreed to mic muting, podiums among rules for upcoming CNN debate

Source: CNN

With less than two weeks until the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, CNN has released additional details on the parameters agreed upon by the Trump and Biden campaigns.

The debate, which will be hosted by CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash in Atlanta on June 27, will mark the first in-person showdown of the 2024 campaign between President Joe Biden and his predecessor, former President Donald Trump. Both candidates have accepted the network’s invitation and agreed to accept the rules and format of the debate, as outlined in letters sent to the campaigns by the network in May.

The 90-minute debate will include two commercial breaks, according to the network, and campaign staff may not interact with their candidate during that time.

Both candidates agreed to appear at a uniform podium, and their podium positions will be determined by a coin flip.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics ... index.html

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Biden Earns Record-breaking Cash Haul at Glitzy Hollywood Fundraiser
by Erica Pandey
June 16, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) President Biden's Los Angeles fundraiser at the Peacock Theater — an event featuring Julia Roberts, George Clooney, Jimmy Kimmel and former President Barack Obama — hauled in at least $28 million for his re-election campaign.

Why it matters: It breaks the Democratic Party record for most cash raised in one night, the L.A. Times reports. Tickets ranged from $250 to $500,000.

• The previous record was $26 million, from Biden's March fundraiser in Manhattan with former presidents Obama and Clinton.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/06/16/biden ... -angeles

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[firestar464]

For some good news though, GA, MI, and WI became noticeably less trumpy according to 270towin aggregation.

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