Ukraine War Watch Thread

[ibm9000]

CNN
Russia is entering its third year of war in Ukraine with an unprecedented amount of cash in government coffers, bolstered by a record $37 billion of crude oil sales to India last year, according to new analysis, which concludes that some of the crude was refined by India and then exported to the United States as oil products worth more than $1 billion.
India’s complex role in global oil trade is also reflected in the fate of the oil products Russian crude is turned into. Some of the crude is refined into oil products at refineries on India’s western coast, and then exported to the US and other countries signed up to sanctions on Russian oil. Products refined outside of Russia are not covered by sanctions, an omission critics call a “refinery loophole.”

theguardian
German exports of cars to Kyrgyzstan are up 5,100% since the start of the Ukraine war – with other routes channelling luxury goods and computer chips.

Nikkei Asia. APRIL 12, 2023
More than a year since the start of the Ukraine war, hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of U.S.-made semiconductors are flowing into Russia despite Washington's sanctions on the country, a Nikkei investigation has found.
The records showed 3,292 transactions worth at least $100,000 each, and 2,358 of them -about 70%- were labelled as products of U.S. chipmakers such as Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, Texas Instruments and many others. The total value of these transactions was at least $740 million. Of those transactions, 1,774 -about 75%- were shipped from Hong Kong or mainland China, and many of the shippers were small or midsize companies, some of which were established after the Ukraine invasion. The value of those transactions was $570 million.

The loophole is called "business first/national interests".

[Time_Traveller]

Peace talks tomorrow if Russia leaves Ukraine - Zelensky

16 June 2024, 08:57 BST



Kyiv will hold peace talks with Russia tomorrow if Moscow pulls out of all Ukrainian territory, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.

But speaking at the close of a summit for peace in Switzerland, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin would not end the war and had to be stopped "in any way we can", whether by military or diplomatic means.

Western aid was not enough to win the war, he added, but the summit had shown that international support for Ukraine was not weakening.

The meeting concluded with dozens of countries committing to Ukraine's territorial integrity.

A final document was adopted which blamed the war's widespread suffering and destruction firmly on Russia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxrr1kyp04eo

[ibm9000]

The Peace Conference, without half of the countries participating in the war: Sea Trade, yes. No nuclear "things", yes. Prisoner exchange, yes. Ending the war, yes... but how and when that is a different story.
S. Arabia and a few others have decided that it is not in their best interests even to sing the declaration.

In my country, the new Government is always blaming everything on the last Government: That works the first year. I am reading that Ukraine is getting more Leopard 1. Is the 2025 summer offensive going to be with L1? Is Zelensky trying to get into such a terrible situation in order to force NATO's hand? Is he trying to get an AH Chancellery moment?
He destroys his country or he destroys the planet?

Is the new(?) French President going to keep the training of that brigade and the aircraft? Super Etendard, Mirage, F-16 (and Gripen?), Ukrainian logistics are going to be even more interesting; if those aircraft survive in their bases.

[ibm9000]

Bürgenstock, Switzerland 16 June 2024

The ongoing war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine continues to cause large-scale human suffering and destruction, and to create risks and crises with global repercussions. We gathered in Switzerland on 15-16 June 2024 to enhance a high-level dialogue on pathways towards a comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine. We reiterated resolutions A/RES/ES-11/1 and A/RES/ES-11/6 adopted at the UN General Assembly and underscored our commitment to upholding international law including the United Nations Charter. This Summit was built on the previous discussions that have taken place based on Ukraine’s Peace Formula and other peace proposals which are in line with international law, including the United Nations Charter.
We deeply appreciate Switzerland’s hospitality and its initiative to host the High-Level Summit as expression of its firm commitment to promoting international peace and security.

We had a fruitful, comprehensive and constructive exchange of various views on pathways towards a framework for a comprehensive, just and lasting peace, based on international law, including the United Nations Charter. In particular, we reaffirm our commitment to refraining from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, the principles of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine, within their internationally recognized borders, including territorial waters, and the resolution of disputes through peaceful means as principles of international law.
We, furthermore, have a common vision on the following crucial aspects:

Firstly, any use of nuclear energy and nuclear installations must be safe, secured, safe-guarded and environmentally sound. Ukrainian nuclear power plants and installations, including Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, must operate safely and securely under full sovereign control of Ukraine and in line with IAEA principles and under its supervision.
Any threat or use of nuclear weapons in the context of the ongoing war against Ukraine is inadmissible.

Secondly, global food security depends on uninterrupted manufacturing and supply of food products. In this regard, free, full and safe commercial navigation, as well as access to sea ports in the Black and Azov Seas, are critical. Attacks on merchant ships in ports and along the entire route, as well as against civilian ports and civilian port infrastructure, are unacceptable.
Food security must not be weaponized in any way. Ukrainian agricultural products should be securely and freely provided to interested third countries.

Thirdly, all prisoners of war must be released by complete exchange. All deported and unlawfully displaced Ukrainian children, and all other Ukrainian civilians who were unlawfully detained, must be returned to Ukraine.
We believe that reaching peace requires the involvement of and dialogue between all parties. We, therefore, decided to undertake concrete steps in the future in the above-mentioned areas with further engagement of the representatives of all parties.

The United Nations Charter, including the principles of respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all states, can and will serve as a basis in achieving a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine.


I find "The ongoing war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine..." more subtle than the BBC's "...which blamed the war's widespread suffering and destruction firmly on Russia." More like stating a fact: there is a war going on. English is not my first language, anyway.

[caltrek]

Bürgenstock, Switzerland 16 June 2024

The ongoing war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine continues to cause large-scale human suffering and destruction, and to create risks and crises with global repercussions...

Here is a link to that pronouncement: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/re ... -BB1ojtf

Edit: Well, that is weird. The address I provided is that shown for the pronouncement provided via Reuters. However, when I tried the link I provided, I received a message that the link was no longer available.

[firestar464]

Found another link.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/pres ... n-ukraine/

[Cyber_Rebel]

I find "The ongoing war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine..." more subtle than the BBC's "...which blamed the war's widespread suffering and destruction firmly on Russia." More like stating a fact: there is a war going on. English is not my first language, anyway.

But I thought it was "special military operation?"

If it's alright to ask, what's your stakes in this ibm9000? This is the topic you post the most frequently in, so it seems to have the most value for you. English not being your first language perfectly okay by the way.

What future is most optimal in your opinion, regarding Ukraine and Russia?

[firestar464]

i mean even putin used the word "war;" he needs to be prosecuted for spreading misinformation!!!!

[ibm9000]

I find "The ongoing war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine..." more subtle than the BBC's "...which blamed the war's widespread suffering and destruction firmly on Russia." More like stating a fact: there is a war going on. English is not my first language, anyway.

But I thought it was "special military operation?"
If it's alright to ask, what's your stakes in this ibm9000? This is the topic you post the most frequently in, so it seems to have the most value for you. English not being your first language perfectly okay by the way.
What future is most optimal in your opinion, regarding Ukraine and Russia?

(A SMO like Vietnam).

You should mention that (SMO) to the Summit... and to the BBC, as I was commenting its words.

Only this topic and my "stake" is Military History. I think the BBC was sending a subtly different message; maybe a philologist could help me with that.

Edited:
I found my philologist: against. Russia is the agressor, but it says neither "between" nor "with"; I missed that hint. Like the war of US against NVN (and Laos and Cambodia), to follow my own example.

"En Suisse, peu d’avancées à la première grande réunion sur une paix en Ukraine.
La conférence, qui a réuni une centaine de chefs d’Etat et de gouvernement, a débouché sur une déclaration finale timide, qui rappelle les grands principes du droit international bafoués par la Russie." lemonde
(Disappointing Summit).

"Ukraine’s entire government budget for 2024 is $87bn (about half of it is spent on defence), but its expected tax revenues come to only $46bn."

[firestar464]

About Vietnam: we bloody know. We do, in fact, know about everything you've brought up thus far. We just don't talk about it here as it's irrelevant.

[Powers]

Vietnam yes. Korea yes. Afghanistan not so much (Or so they said).

By which metrics was the president informed of this?

Or did the CIA?

[ibm9000]

About Vietnam: we bloody know. We do, in fact, know about everything you've brought up thus far. We just don't talk about it here as it's irrelevant.

"Conscription officers are on the hunt for those avoiding the register, pushing more men who do not want to serve into hiding." BBC
Is that relevant?

Like in Ratatouille: Perspective. (Like the Americans running to Canada during the VNM War. Are you sure everyone knows about that? Maybe you talk to History professors, I don't).

[firestar464]

From my experience the dudes running to Canada is pretty well known

[Vakanai]

Curious, what does people running to Canada to avoid being forced to go to Vietnam back in the day have to do with Russia invading Ukraine today?

[raklian]

About Vietnam: we bloody know. We do, in fact, know about everything you've brought up thus far. We just don't talk about it here as it's irrelevant.

"Conscription officers are on the hunt for those avoiding the register, pushing more men who do not want to serve into hiding." BBC
Is that relevant?

Like in Ratatouille: Perspective. (Like the Americans running to Canada during the VNM War. Are you sure everyone knows about that? Maybe you talk to History professors, I don't).

Stick to the topic of this thread. We've warned you multiple times. Last chance.

[firestar464]

Curious, what does people running to Canada to avoid being forced to go to Vietnam back in the day have to do with Russia invading Ukraine today?

People dodging conscription ---> Ukraine will lose like America in VN. However, this overlooks the fact that Ukraine is facing an existential crisis, as opposed to America which was literally sending youth to die for a foreign junta.

[Vakanai]

Curious, what does people running to Canada to avoid being forced to go to Vietnam back in the day have to do with Russia invading Ukraine today?

People dodging conscription ---> Ukraine will lose like America in VN. However, this overlooks the fact that Ukraine is facing an existential crisis, as opposed to America which was literally sending youth to die for a foreign junta.

Ah.
Also ignores the fact that more Russians are dodging conscription because they don't want to be sent into a pointless war to die, whereas yeah, for Ukrainians it's an existential threat. People are more likely to die to protect their country than to die just to please a dictator's whims.

[caltrek]

...
Ah.
....People are more likely to die to protect their country than to die just to...

That is the essential point of Robert Ardrey's Territorial Imperative. Ardrey arrived at that point by examining the animal kingdom, where ideology is not a factor. It (protection of one's territory) is a basic instinctual drive, at least according to Ardrey's argument.

Part of Putin's argument is that the Ukraine does pose an existential threat to Russia. Especially to the extent that it allies itself with NATO. A dubious claim that Russian draft evaders have wisely dismissed. I am not so sure about the rest of the country.

For more on Ardrey's work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Terri ... mperative

[ibm9000]

Curious, what does people running to Canada to avoid being forced to go to Vietnam back in the day have to do with Russia invading Ukraine today?

People dodging conscription ---> Ukraine will lose like America in VN. However, this overlooks the fact that Ukraine is facing an existential crisis, as opposed to America which was literally sending youth to die for a foreign junta.

That "People dodging conscription ---> Ukraine will lose like America in VN" is a very far-fetched conclusion. Try "it's a war, people will dodge conscription, like in Russia"; existential threat or not.
My conclusion is that it is just another war, nothing new here; not even drones, not even glide bombs (unconfirmed reports of Russia using the 1.5tn glide bomb).

Edit:
3tn, 3.000kg, not pounds.

[Vakanai]

...
Ah.
....People are more likely to die to protect their country than to die just to...

That is the essential point of Robert Ardrey's Territorial Imperative. Ardrey arrived at that point by examining the animal kingdom, where ideology is not a factor. It (protection of one's territory) is a basic instinctual drive, at least according to Ardrey's argument.

Part of Putin's argument is that the Ukraine does pose an existential threat to Russia. Especially to the extent that it allies itself with NATO. A dubious claim that Russian draft evaders have wisely dismissed. I am not so sure about the rest of the country.

For more on Ardrey's work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Terri ... mperative

Less Putin's argument and more his BS excuse to justify his imperial ambitions.