Problem with faster technology, tools, etc. could be summarized by this picture:
What if faster things just allow for more dumb decisions in a given span of time?
Anyhow, Kurzweil today seems to see and portray 2045 more like he portrayed 2029 in the past and 2029 more like he portrayed 2019 in the past. He actually thought AGI would come by 2019, but it would get at least 100% human level in everything by 2029. He talks about 1 million times human level AI by 2045, but in the past he talked about 1 billion times. So he has changed his outlook to be more conservative, cautious and in-line with what's really happening.
Like I wrote last year, real-world $1000 2023 laptop was 1000x weaker than his predicted $1000 2023 laptop.
His original timeline was:
2010 - cure for obesity, baldness, cancer, autonomous cars
2015 - advanced, slim AR glasses everywhere, end of HDDs, 3D carbon nanotube computing, Longevity Escape Velocity
2020 - VR is almost life-like and most people use it for hours every day, AI is being used constantly and is very useful
2025 - widespread 3D printing of clothing, food, whole buildings of various sizes and shapes, tools and more
2030 - widespread nanobots in human bodies, extensive and intensive applicable human augmentation, you can get a new body, perhaps even a new better brain
2035 - AI is 1000x unaugmented human, VR is 100% fully immersive
2040 - AI is 1000 000x unaugmented human
2045 - AI is 1000 000 000x unaugmented human, The Technological Singularity, life is completely unrecognizable
From what I see and hear, he has moved his original predictions by 15 to 20 years forward in time.
My view is that AI might be from 100 000x to 1000 000x smarter than an average unaugmented human by 2045. 3D printing will certainly get better, cheaper, more useful and more widespread by 2040.
