2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Events have moved so quickly that last week’s Republican National Convention now seems like ancient history. Still, despite relatively low ratings, it was watched by millions. Therefore, it is worth presenting a review or two of how it went.

Unity at the Republican National Convention Looked a Lot Like Jonestown
by Will Bunch
July 18, 2024

Extract:

(Common Dreams ) Nobody at the RNC was really toning it down or lowering the temperature. Instead, it was like a weeklong heat dome of baseless accusation settled over eastern Wisconsin.

The harsh tone was set early on Monday, when Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson welcomed the faithful to his home state by declaring “the Democrat agenda, their policies, are a clear and present danger to America, to our institutions, our values, and our people.” Johnson then claimed that “the wrong speech” had been stuck into the teleprompter.

Really? In that case, the teleprompter guy must have brought all the wrong speeches. Because if there was some kind of memo about a new GOP message of peace, love, and understanding, it was not widely circulated. As I looked on from the upper deck Tuesday night, I heard a string of “everyday Americans” present a nonstop saga of murder, rape, and drug-related deaths. I wasn’t sure at times if I was watching the RNC or if Comcast had reactivated FEARnet. While some of the crimes were committed by undocumented migrants and others they sought to blame on liberal prosecutors, these truly awful, heartbreaking incidents were always tied back to President Joe Biden.

And look, no one expects convention goers to mount the RNC podium and admit that Biden’s border policies—which refugee advocates say are too strict and too similar to what Trump did—and his recent curbs on asylum have brought southern border crossings to their lowest levels of the 2020s, But did anyone expect that emotional dog-whistle speeches like Fundner’s would be greeted with delegates waving pre-made placards, “Stop Biden’s Border Bloodbath”?

Did they bring “the wrong signs,” just like Johnson brought “the wrong speech”? Or is this how the Republican Party lowers the temperature, even as it commits a type of stochastic terrorism by describing the most awful rapes and murders and telling America: Biden did this? Their version of “tone it down” is...”bloodbath”? Seriously? And yet when I walked around the inner bowels of the Fiserv Forum, RNC delegates swore that only Democrats are responsible for violent rhetoric.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/r ... jonestown

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Who could be Kamala Harris’s VP? The Potential List, Briefly Explained.
by Li Zhou
July 22, 2024

Introduction:

(Vox) Following President Joe Biden’s exit from the 2024 presidential race, and his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as his choice for the Democratic nominee, one of the next big questions that’s emerged is who could potentially be her running mate. Though Harris is not the nominee yet, Biden’s backing gives her a significant boost ahead of other potential contenders, fueling speculation about who else could join the ticket.

Historically, vice presidents have been selected to complement the main candidate. Biden chose Harris because she would bring youth, diversity, and legal experience. And former President Donald Trump chose Vice President Mike Pence because he was a traditional conservative and offered legislative expertise that he didn’t have.

What might Harris look for? Based on that history, there are a few guesses: Her pick could be someone from a purple or red state, who offers geographic diversity given her roots in California. And — to assuage voters who still hold sexist or racist attitudes, as President Barack Obama did with Biden in 2008 — it might be a white man.

Below is a rundown of some of the possible candidates who might be considered — and what they’d bring to the ticket.

The article goes on to briefly review the following potential candidates:

Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina

Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania

Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky

Governor J.B. Pritzker of Illinois

Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona

Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg

Governor Gavin Newsom of California

Apparently, Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan has emphatically indicated that she “has no desire” to be Vice President.


Read more here: https://www.vox.com/politics/362043/ka ... l-ticket

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Prediction Markets Notch an Important Win with Biden's Drop Out
by Felix Salmon
July , 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) The prediction markets were right — and Joe Biden himself was wrong.

Why it matters: Accurate polling is increasingly difficult — and many questions, like whether Biden would drop out, can't be answered by polls at all. Enter prediction markets, which provide a minute-by-minute gauge of electoral probabilities.

The big picture: Prediction markets in general, and Polymarket in particular, look pretty smart right now on two different levels.

• Polymarket started making a market on the probability of Biden dropping out of the race on Sept. 21, 2023. Even then, its traders said there was a 22.5% chance he would drop out — much higher than the conventional wisdom inside the Beltway, and roughly three times the likelihood that Trump would drop out.

• More recently, Polymarket's traders flatly didn't believe Biden when he explicitly said he was staying in the race. On the day he said, "as clearly as I can" that "I'm staying in the race," for instance, they still priced in a 66% chance that he would drop out.

How it works: Prediction markets are based on contracts that pay out $1 if the event in question ends up happening, or $0 otherwise. If the market is efficient, then the price in cents corresponds to the perceived probability the event will happen.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/07/22/predi ... drop-out

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[Cyber_Rebel]

Well, it would certainly seem that Harris has a lot more enthusiasm going for her than Hillary Clinton ever did. Is this our Labour moment?

Kamala Harris Is Already a Fundraising Powerhouse
After Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed his VP, money started pouring in from Democratic donors



RollingStone

The Kamala Harris campaign for president kicked off on Sunday, but the vice president has already hit the jackpot. Over the last few weeks, her past public statements have sparked viral social media trends about falling out of coconut trees; stan armies behind popular musicians have started to back her in the race; and in just one day, her campaign has already brought in nearly $100 million in Democratic donations.

ActBlue, the online fundraising platform for Democratic candidates, hosts a donation tracker that updates every 15 minutes. For the week of tracking beginning Sunday, July 21 — when President Joe Biden officially announced the end of his reelection campaign and endorsed VP Harris — the amount raised is shown to have surpassed $95.7 million, as of Monday afternoon. With less than two days of tracking, it’s already the largest weekly gross the party has seen since the week of the 2020 election, when donations surpassed $121 million.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Harris takes away the age issue, brings back the hispanics and probably gets the black vote back to 2012 levels. I don't understand how the polls don't at least show a tied race or lean harris over the next few weeks. The question will be is there enough time to pull the party together under her.

The difference between 2024 and 2016 in my opinion is Trump ran on a pro-job, anti-outsourcing platform that promised to rebuild our economy and to do what the clintons had done to our workers through bad trade deals. He failed and shit the bed. Hilary also wasn't vice president unlike Harris and Trump wasn't proven to be such a fraud.

I'd be fucking shocked not to see Harris lead in some of the polls in Mich, Wis and Pa by September. If she doesn't then I'd guess the voters are taking the shit out of her for not being primaried, the open border bullshit and the fact that we're living in a time where a large part of our society are tired of woke...Think what you want but it is what it is. I get it, you believe that all groups and life styes should be accepted but a lot of people don't feel this way.

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[Cyber_Rebel]

I'd be fucking shocked not to see Harris lead in some of the polls in Mich, Wis and Pa by September. If she doesn't then I'd guess the voters are taking the shit out of her for not being primaried, the open border bullshit and the fact that we're living in a time where a large part of our society are tired of woke...Think what you want but it is what it is. I get it, you believe that all groups and life styes should be accepted but a lot of people don't feel this way.

Given the YUGE(!) level of grassroots support, I'm thinking that she won't face the same unpopularity issues that HC did. In regard to the woke issue, honestly, the whole framing shouldn't be dictated by the right to begin with. Just look at Vance's sad press conference today, where apparently, drinking a Diet Mountain Dew, is somehow an issue anyone without brain rot gives a single f*ck about. No one cares about this, and it would be a mistake for Dems to play into such at all. Anything and everything which someone doesn't like is somehow woke with no elaboration as to why.

Bernie Sanders is correct when he says one should focus on policy issues which actually affect the everyday lives of people in a material sense. As for the border, I imagine it could be a reason why Mark Miller is in consideration for the VP pick. We can have sensible borders without playing into senseless demagoguery, and it would be yet another issue we can learn from the recent UK's Labour victory.

Would also be pretty cool and inspiring to have an astronaut as our VP, and a real commitment to science and reason on the ballot.

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[spryfusion]

Given the YUGE(!) level of grassroots support, I'm thinking that she won't face the same unpopularity issues that HC did.

[wjfox]

What are Kamala Harris’s chances against Donald Trump?

Oliver Roeder and Eva Xiao in New York
33 minutes ago

New Democratic frontrunner is polling behind the former president — for now

https://www.ft.com/content/77b32462-3d5 ... f8c58edc8a