2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Harris 48% definitely/probably [50% probably/definitely not; 44% definitely not]
Trump 43% definitely/probably [55% probably/definitely not; 49% definitely not]

Remains Harris +5 with third party candidates as well

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-instit ... us_081424/

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Harris has about 40% of the lead Biden did this time in 2020. About 2.5-2.8%...Right on the edge of enough. Looking at 2000, 2004 and 2008 and not just looking at 2016 to 2020 it is ok but if you just compare 2016 and 2020 Harris isn't quite there yet. We will see.

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Ilhan Omar Is Heading Back to Congress
by Artis Curiskis
August 13, 2024

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) Ilhan Omar won renomination to Congress on Tuesday night, beating back a repeat challenger.

Leading up to the primary, it seemed Rep. Omar, after an aggressive campaign backed by a major financial advantage, would cruise to an easy win against her familiar opponent, Don Samuels, who lost the 2022 primary by a little over 2,000 votes. And that’s more or less how it turned out: Within two hours of the close of voting, Omar was declared the winner with a victory margin of around 16,00o votes, or 14 percent.

Conclusion

Omar will now face Dalia Al-Aqidi, an Iraqi-immigrant who has the GOP endorsement, in the general election. The district has not sent a Republican to Congress since 1963. Omar won the 2022 general election with roughly 75 percent of the vote.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... eapolis /

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Utah’s High Court Rejects Colby Jenkins’ Last-ditch Bid to Reverse Representative Celeste Maloy’s GOP Primary Win
by Robert Gehrke
August 14, 2024

Introduction:

(The Salt Lake Tribune) Colby Jenkins’ battle to overcome a 176-vote defeat at the hands of Rep. Celeste Maloy and become the Republican nominee in Utah’s 2nd Congressional District has come to an end after the Utah Supreme Court rejected his argument that nearly 1,200 late-postmarked ballots should be counted.

Chief Justice Matthew Durrant wrote in a short ruling Tuesday that Jenkins’ petition to the court “fails to identify any instance where election officials failed to comply with any statutory mandate” and that it “falls well short of establishing that he is entitled to the relief he seeks.”

The relief Jenkins sought was an order requiring county clerks to count ballots that were postmarked after the statutory deadline. They had arrived late, Jenkins’ lawyers argued, because mail from parts of southern Utah gets shipped to Las Vegas to be processed, causing delays of up to a week in one instance.

Jenkins contended that two voters in the same district could drop their ballots in the mail at the same time and one would be counted and the other would not, based solely on the postal facility where they were postmarked.

But the justices, who seemed dubious of the arguments presented at a hearing last week, were not convinced that the issue created a constitutional violation. Nor were they convinced the number of ballots was as high as Jenkins asserted it to be.

Read more here: https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2 ... n-holds/

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Defeat of Two Proposed Constitutional Amendments in Wisconsin a Bad Sign for Trump.
by Amy Sikma
August 14, 2024

Extract:

(New Tork Post) Two constitutional amendments on the ballot attempted to reign in Gov. Evers’ (D-WI) spending authority on federal funds, such as pandemic relief funds, by requiring legislative oversight.
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The constitutional amendments failed by 15 percentage points statewide, much more than the 1% that has decided four of the last six presidential elections in Wisconsin.

Further Wisconsin Primary Election Results

Trump-endorsed businessman Tony Wied won the three-way Republican primary for Wisconsin’s open Eighth Congressional District, where Republicans are favored to win by close to 20 percentage points.

The Democratic establishment favorite in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District — State Legislator Katrina Shankland — was vastly outspent and defeated by political strategist Rebecca Cooke.
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Cooke’s shady financial deals, late financial reporting and progressive agenda will come into play as Trump-endorsed incumbent Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) attempts to ward off her challenge this November in the most vulnerable congressional district in Wisconsin.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... gNewsSerp

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Outward Intelligence: Harris +6/+6

https://www.outwardintelligence.com/pul ... y-6-points

Harris 49
Trump 43
Kennedy 7

Harris 53
Trump 47

8/11-15, 1858 LV

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If Trump loses it will be because of 1. his age(59% of people think he is too old!) and 2. his vice president pick. If he was 10 years younger and stayed with pence this election would be over.

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