2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[weatheriscool]

Clarity - Harris +6
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... t+2024.pdf

Harris - 51
Trump - 45

[spryfusion]

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[weatheriscool]

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[weatheriscool]

It would be nice if the Osborn got this seat and kept the senate....

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[firestar464]

Vance opens up about running with Trump: 'We're each trying to talk to different people in different ways'

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... rcna168515

Dude basically admitted that Trump doesn't want him near him lmao

[caltrek]

This is an outlier. Most polls show Trump with a solid hold on Texas and even Cruz with an advantage:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... 24/texas/

But OMG if this poll were the most accurate what a wild election night that would be. One can imagine Harris losing Pennsylvania and Georgia and still winning the election because she takes Texas. Republicans would just absolutely freak out and might very well be tempted to take actions to make sure some of the Harris vote was simply not counted.

[weatheriscool]

As of 9-1 the current thinking is Harris will probably win.
3.5% nation popular vote win is my estimation based on serious polling state level polling, lower office polling and favorability. My ev is 293 for Harris, 245 for Trump!
This gives Harris: predicted real vote when it is said and done!
.7% win in Pa(2% poll wise comparably to 2016-2020).
2.5% win in Michigan(5% pollwise)
.8% win in Wis(3% pollwise)
.1% win in Ga
Neb second will be 2.5% Harris
Maine will likely give all its votes to Harris
Arizona will be Trump by .2%.
North Carolina will be Trump be .5%

The lower offices for senate and house are literal blow outs in these three states. Some showing their senate candidate up by 10-12%. Very healthy down ticket! The 2nd district of neb is 5% ahead in the polls and even the senate race is within 1%. Maine 2nd is very close if not polling ahead for Harris. Lets be honest Arizona if it was only on lower office support would likely go Harris too but I am choosing to be conservative because of the polls.

As it is closer to the election and polls have greatly strengthen in Harris favor I'll predict a 70% chance of her being elected the 47th president of the United states!

[firestar464]

270towin showing polling averages of 2.8% nationwide

Also weirdly enough NC a total tossup rn while AZ is leaning Trump. This could well change though.

[caltrek]

Tim Sheehy's Chances of Beating Jon Tester in Crucial Montana Senate Race
by Andrew Stanton
August 30, 2024

Introduction:

(Newsweek) Montana Democratic Senator Jon Tester is locked in a close election race against Republican Tim Sheehy in a battle that could determine which party controls the Senate, according to recent polls.

Control of the Senate may hinge on the Montana race. Although the state has a solid Republican lean, Tester has proven over the years to be a candidate who can outrun other Democrats, securing his third term in 2018. But 2024 may be a more difficult year, due to higher turnout in a state that is expected to easily back former President Donald Trump in the White House race against Vice President Kamala Harris.

Democrats, however, cannot afford to lose Tester's seat without picking up another seat. Democrats currently hold a narrow Senate majority of 51-49, and are not making a major play for the seat being vacated by Democratic West Virginia Joe Manchin, as the state is viewed as among the most conservative in the country.

This means they must hold onto every other Senate seat they currently hold or flip a seat elsewhere in order to have a chance to keep control of the chamber. Their best opportunities outside of Montana are Florida and Texas, but the Republican incumbents in those contests are viewed as having the advantage over their Democratic challengers.

On Friday, a new survey from Republican-leaning pollster Rasmussen Reports showed Sheehy with a lead over Tester. The poll, conducted among 835 likely voters from August 13 to August 20, found Sheehy leading Tester by seven points. Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for Sheehy, while 43 percent said they would back Tester.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... 6c0&ei=76

[Cyber_Rebel]

But OMG if this poll were the most accurate what a wild election night that would be. One can imagine Harris losing Pennsylvania and Georgia and still winning the election because she takes Texas. Republicans would just absolutely freak out and might very well be tempted to take actions to make sure some of the Harris vote was simply not counted.

Better she wins them all for that reason, and to make certain MAGA is done for good. I won't make predictions for states like Texas or Florida, but I do not imagine anyone would try emulating Trump again with losses that heavy. Politics would trend towards being boring again with relative moderation (of the right wing) as it should be.

If she does win and by good margins, addressing the system itself needs to be first on the agenda. Filibuster, voting rights act, supreme court, etc. I'd be very much in line with eliminating the Electoral College, but that may be too much political capital to expend.

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[weatheriscool]

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[caltrek]

What the Polls Show About Harris’s Chances Against Trump
by Andrew Prokop
September 2, 2024

Introduction:

(Vox) With Democrats so enthused about Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign of late, you might have gotten the impression that she has a solid polling advantage over former President Donald Trump.

That’s not the case. Harris currently leads national polls by about 3 percentage points on average, but the Electoral College is what actually determines the outcome. That means to win the presidency, Harris and Trump need to pick up as many swing states as possible. And as of midday Tuesday, state polling averages from publications like Silver Bulletin, Real Clear Politics, FiveThirtyEight, and the New York Times point to hair-raisingly tight contests in the most important swing states.

Wisconsin and Michigan are currently looking best for Harris: All four polling averages mentioned above agree she is narrowly ahead there, by about 1 to 3 percentage points. But those states would not be enough to give Harris an Electoral College majority.

The state of play is murkier in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, where the averages vary. Though some averages of these states show Harris very slightly ahead (by about 1 percentage point or less) in each of those, others show tied races (in Pennsylvania and Nevada) or very narrow Trump leads (in Arizona and Georgia).

In the remaining swing state, North Carolina, Trump leads polling averages by a very tiny margin of less than 1 percentage point.

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/369 ... -silbver

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