2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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[wjfox]

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[Cyber_Rebel]

It really is an outdated system which sees states themselves are whole entities rather than the actual populace. Our system would at least make more sense with mixed member proportional voting that isn't as solely party focused, with more party variety in general. Not holding my breath for anything though. We'll likely have the same system until the god machine we create decrees for it to be terminated.

[weatheriscool]

Based on what I see a lot of these polls are literally rigging it to appear that Trumps going to win with literally 10% of the republican base voting for harris, extreme levels of woman support for harris and the youth being 20-30% more for harris. This is just dumb.

I am keeping my prediction that Harris will win this election by 4% popular vote wise and could beat Bidens 8 million votes. I dare say she will carry north carolina, ga and az?

[weatheriscool]

https://x.com/VoteHubUS/status/

[caltrek]

It really is an outdated system which sees states themselves are whole entities rather than the actual populace. Our system would at least make more sense with mixed member proportional voting that isn't as solely party focused, with more party variety in general. Not holding my breath for anything though. We'll likely have the same system until the god machine we create decrees for it to be terminated.

The system would make more sense with a highly decentralized system as envisioned by the original federalists. Even more so with the anti-federalist vision. If there is one area I partially agree upon with conservatives, it is the degree of government centralization. Where I part company is to imagine that certain basic human rights should be subject to the whims of state government. "States' rights" all too often means deprivation of civil rights for certain minorities, withdrawal of the rights to abortion, an unwillingness to recognize gay marriage, etc. Individual rights such as those I have listed should take precedent.

As economic units, the role of the federal government should at most be confined to raising revenue and distributing such revenue to localities to do with as they please. That works best where local government has a high level of citizen participation. Hence a need to observe basic civil rights such as voting, freedom of speech, etc. A relatively enlightened view of the need to engage in sustainable environmental practices is also important. Federal government can mandate a certain environmental review process in the expenditure of federal funds, but conclusions reached should be by the local populace. Leaving the federal government out of the loop completely may also be desirable, but I think that only states like California would have the resources and value orientation to pull that off. Regional government among neighboring states may be the answer there.

The duopoly of political parties that you allude to is also a definite problem and has become more of an evil in recent times. With our system of checks and balances it is too easy to blame the opposing party for a failure to address basic problems. Trump is especially adept at the blame game. He even goes as far as actively sabotaging efforts toward solutions even as he shifts the blame to Democrats. That we as a country allow him to do that is becoming increasingly problematic.

I think expecting salvation from the "god machine" ignores the likely schizophrenic nature of that machine. Both parties are in the process of establishing a reliance on artificial intelligence in which goals, values, and objectives are fundamentally in conflict with each other. I don't see an AGI being any different except that there is an outside possibility of a convergence of said goals, values, and objectives. I don't see that as likely because of inherent tensions in our society. We have an energy sector that is rapidly moving toward renewables, and yet the carbon-based fuel industry still retains an enormous influence over our society. Concluding that basic rights should be afforded to the LGBT+ community is rendered problematic by traditionalists who refuse to go that route. I am not sure an AGI could change that as there would be a great resistance and suspicion of efforts along those lines. Immigration is another such divisive issue.

We may eventually evolve out of some of these problems, especially regarding the energy sector, but I suspect new ones would crop up to take their place. Our attitude toward AGI may very well be one of those problems.

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

It really is an outdated system which sees states themselves are whole entities rather than the actual populace. Our system would at least make more sense with mixed member proportional voting that isn't as solely party focused, with more party variety in general. Not holding my breath for anything though. We'll likely have the same system until the god machine we create decrees for it to be terminated.

Just came across this article after my last post. It approaches the topic from a different direction than what I staked out but makes a lot of interesting points.

Tim Walz Is Right: The Electoral College Should Be Abolished
by Ari Berman
October 9, 2024

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) At a pair of fundraisers on Tuesday, Gov. Tim Walz called for abolishing the Electoral College. “I think all of us know, the Electoral College needs to go,” he told Democratic donors at the home of California Gov. Gavin Newsom. “We need a national popular vote.”

The Harris campaign said that it did not support Walz’s position and the New York Times wrote that his statement risked “rocking the boat for the Harris campaign as it tries to deliver a message focused on economic concerns, abortion rights and the threat of former President Donald J. Trump.” Trump’s campaign posted on X, “Why does Tampon Tim hate the Constitution so much?”

But the Democratic vice presidential nominee is right—the Electoral College should be abolished. Sixty-three percent of Americans agree with that position, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll.

Here are five reasons why the Electoral College “needs to go”:

It’s fundamentally undemocratic…
It excludes the vast majority of Americans from counting…
It’s unrepresentative of the country…
It incentivizes election rigging…
It’s racist and antiquated…

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... -abolished

caltrek’s comment: I can think of counter arguments to the first three. I have to admit that the fourth point is very strong. I need to give more thought to the fifth.

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[caltrek]

Poll Suggests Democrats are Poised to Take U.S. Congressional District Seat Currently Occupied by Top Pennsylvania Republican
by Mandy Taheri
October 10, 2024

Introduction:

(Newsweek) Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson is gaining ground on six-term U.S. Representative Scott Perry in Pennsylvania, according to a recent poll.

Stelson is a former television anchor seeking to unseat Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair who has represented Pennsylvania since 2013.

A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey conducted between October 4 and 7, just ahead of the only scheduled debate between the two candidates, shows Stelson leading the GOP incumbent by nine points.

The poll shows Stelson's support extending beyond the margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, with 48 percent of respondents backing her and 39 percent backing Perry.

Cook Political Report identifies Pennsylvania's 10th District, which includes Harrisburg and York, as a Republican-leaning region with an R+6 rating.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... 2fa&ei=15

[caltrek]

I tried to verify this through Bing co-pilot and it was apparently too confused by my question to give me an answer. If true, it would explain a lot. Perhaps they are trying to make a Trump loss by theft of votes look more plausible. At any rate, if this sort of thing is occurring, that would argue for the likelihood of Democrats overperforming, which could just about clinch it for Harris.

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Nebraska Senate May Be the Race No One Saw Coming
by Philip Eliot
October 10, 2024

Introduction:

The last time Nebraskans voted for a Senator who wasn’t a Republican, George W. Bush was an unpopular President leading a deeply divisive GOP. Which is why it’s so curious that Republicans are suddenly rushing to make sure Republican Sen. Deb Fischer keeps the seat for a third term and Democrats are holding tepid optimism that the deep-red state might be at least open to backing a union boss who is running as an independent.

National Republicans have booked roughly a half-million dollars in advertising time in this last month of campaigning. An outside group with ties to one of the state’s richest families is adding another $2 million to that kitty to boost Fischer’s late-emerging nail-biter against neophyte Dan Osborn. Meanwhile, national Democrats are publicly denying any involvement but are privately flagging polls—albeit limited in number—suggesting Nebraska may be closer than any state with a 2-to-1 Republican voter registration advantage should be. Late last month, the most respected political handicapper in the game moved its rating for the race from a GOP gimme to a click closer to the middle. And a New York Times/Siena College poll of three other Senate races drawing the eyes of Democrats released on Thursday suggests Nebraska might be the last vestige of hope for the party to hold any sway over the Senate.

Put plainly on the Plains: Nebraska’s Senate race stands to become this cycle’s out-of-nowhere shocker that neither side saw coming.

“This was not on my BINGO card,” says one Democratic strategist working on other Senate races.

Additional extract:

For his part, Osborn has done his level best to keep national Democrats at an arm’s length. He has vowed he would not caucus with either party, a break from the four independent lawmakers who are currently in the chamber and join Senate Democrats for organizing purposes. Osborn, who led a union strike in Omaha against Kellogg in 2021, has rejected links to national liberal figures like Bernie Sanders or Chuck Schumer, and neither is exactly trying to link Osborn’s fortunes to their individual brands.

Read more here: https://time.com/7085674/senate-nebras ... fischer/

[spryfusion]

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