2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[weatheriscool]

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[wjfox]

[wjfox]

Damning Video Shows Roger Stone Is Plotting a Coup for November

The Donald Trump ally has some sick plans for a potential Republican victory.

October 11, 2024

A nine-minute, unedited, undercover interview with Roger Stone revealed some of the MAGA ally’s more disturbing goals for a second Trump administration.

The covert recording of a discussion between Stone and an undercover journalist at a meet and greet in Jacksonville, Florida, on August 4, published by documentarian Lauren Windsor, caught Stone admitting live on camera that he already intends to send “armed guards to dispute the election in Detroit” and to imprison “former Attorney General Bill Barr if Trump returns to power.”

[...]

On the topic of retaking the government, Stone specified that it’s a “state question, not a federal question.”

“So it’s not who controls the federal government, it’s who controls the state government,” Stone continued. “They use the election system to harass you when you’re in office, but this is about an election. We gotta fight it out on a state-to-state basis.”

At the same event, Stone was witnessed insisting that millions of voters were being purged from voter rolls in battleground states, including North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nevada, as well as Republican strongholds like Florida.

https://newrepublic.com/post/187088/rog ... mber-video

[weatheriscool]

So I was looking through PA early vote data, as well as Tom Bonier's analysis.

https://tombonier.substack.com/p/kickin ... e-analysis

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g20 ... ote_mode=1

I noticed some things which he does not explicitly mention, which I think is possibly the most important bits...

1) There is a "Registered Didn't Vote" subgroup, which is people who were registered to vote in 2020 but did not actually vote at all in 2020 (despite turnout being so high then overall).

Among people who are "Registered Didn't Vote," there are 7,017 Democrats who have already voted, but only 3,164 Republicans and 1,117 unaffiliateds who have already voted. People who could have voted in 2020 but didn't are obviously some of the most unlikely voters, and so far Dems are doing a better job of turning them out than Republicans are. And since they didn't vote at all in 2020, it's probably particularly hard to get them to vote so early (as opposed to dragging them out on election day). So even though the absolute numbers are small, that's a VERY good sign.

2) There's also a "Unregistered" subgroup. Those are people who were not yet registered to vote in 2020, i.e. new registrants over the past 4 years.

And among "Unregistered" who have already voted, there are 5,249 Democrats, and only 1,563 Republicans and 1,110 Unaffiliateds. So this means that - despite the nominal partisan voter registration gains that Republicans have played up and said is a big deal for them in PA, Democrats so far are doing a much better job of actually banking the votes of new registrants than Republicans are. This is also a VERY good sign.


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[caltrek]

Barbara Kingsolver Gets Why Rural Voters Love Trump
by Stephanie Mencimer
October 11, 2024

Introduction:

On Friday, the Pulitzer Prize–winning author Barbara Kingsolver is headlining a fundraiser for the Harris Victory Fund. She’ll join actress Ashley Judd and former Kentucky poet laureate Silas House for a “virtual conversation” about perspectives from rural Appalachia. The event coincides with a recent push by Vice President Kamala Harris to reach out to rural voters, who overwhelmingly support former President Donald Trump.

Additional extracts:

There’s a moment in (her book) Demon Copperhead where Demon is talking to his friend Tommy, who recently started working at a local newspaper where he has discovered for the first time how the rest of the world views Appalachia. “Blight on the nation” read the headline of one story that crosses his desk. Demon tries to explain how the world is organized to Tommy, and the way everyone needs someone to dump on—much like a kid kicking a dog after getting yelled at by his mom, who got smacked by his stepfather. “We’re the dog of America,” he explains. Demon thinks his friend spent high school in the library, instead of watching the “hillbilly-hater marathon: Hunter’s Blood, Lunch Meat, Redneck Zombies” that a local station had aired for a month.

“And the comedy shows, even worse,” Demon adds, “with these guys acting like we’re all on the same side, but just wait. I dated a Kentucky girl once, but she was always lying through her tooth. Ha ha ha ha.” Tommy, dismayed, wonders why the people of Appalachia had to be the ones who got kicked around. “Just bad luck, I reckon,” Demon replies. “God made us the butt of the joke universe.
…
Indeed, she is infuriated by the way rural voters are dismissed so casually by liberals, even as she is both a rural voter and a liberal. “It really galls me that people are ready to write off 50 percent of the population as crazy, stupid, uninformed, whatever. That’s so elitist.” She understands why Trump’s rural supporters are so angry—and why they like him so much.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... e-trump/

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[caltrek]

Full List of House Republicans at Risk of Losing Their Seats
by James Bickerton
October 12, 2024

Introduction:

(Newsweek) On November 5 elections will take place for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives across the United States, with Republicans hoping to strengthen their hold over the second chamber which they captured at the 2022 midterm elections.

A major study by the Cook Political Report, a group which provides nonpartisan election analysis, has highlighted 29 races in which an incumbent Republican could be under threat, split between those classed as "likely Republican," "lean Republican" and "Republican toss-up."

Republicans are hoping to take control of both chambers of Congress in next months elections following their mixed result at the 2022 midterms, when the GOP won control over the House but Democrats held the Senate when a widely anticipated "red wave" failed to materialize.

A study by FiveThirtyEight, a polling analysis website, published on Thursday concluded the Republicans have a 52 percent chance of controlling the House after November's elections, against 48 percent for the Democrats. The conclusion was based on a study of "polling, economic and demographic data."

Newsweek has produced a list of all the House Republicans who the Cook Political Report suggests could be under threat in November. These are divided into seats in which it is a toss-up whether the Republican incumbent will lose, those where this is unlikely and those where it is very unlikely. These three categories replicate the "Republican toss up," "lean Republican" and "likely Republican" sections produced by the Cook Political Report.

For a list of Republicans rated as at risk for losing their seats: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... b3d&ei=30

[caltrek]

Kamala Harris' Chances of Winning Arizona as She Ramps Up Rallies
by Kaitlin Lewis
October 11, 2024

Extract:

(Newsweek via MSN) The Grand Canyon State (Arizona), which President Joe Biden won in 2020 by just under 11,000 votes, is among the handful of battleground states that Harris and her GOP opponent, former President Donald Trump, are vying for in the final weeks of the 2024 election.

Former President Barack Obama, who hosted his first campaign event for Harris in Pittsburgh on Thursday, is planning on making stops in Arizona and Nevada next week. He will be in Tucson on October 18 and Las Vegas on October 19, the first day of early voting in the key swing state.

Preliminary polling has largely favored Trump's chances in the state come November, although the gap between him and Harris remains slim, meaning either candidate could take Arizona and its 11 electoral votes this fall.

According to tracking from FiveThirtyEight, Trump is ahead in Arizona by 1.4 percentage points on average across statewide polls. RealClearPolling gives the former president an even smaller lead, however, finding Trump up by just 0.5 points on average as of Tuesday.

Harris received good news on Friday in the latest swing state poll by The Wall Street Journal, which found Harris slightly ahead in Arizona, leading Trump 47 percent to 45 percent, but the 2 percentage points fall within the margin of error for the poll.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... 3d&ei=34

[weatheriscool]

My thinking based on polls, early vote data and lower office portion of the polls is....
Arizona 2 to 3 points for Trump. I think the state is probably gone for Harris. The earlier data is extremely republican and this is one of the few states that have party, age, sex and race. Very bad....Worried about the hispanic vote.

Nevada...+1 for Harris. I feel the same way about Nevada but it is far further to the left and has been so for the past 20 years. Far more pro union compared to Arizona. I think Harris will win it. But will be close.

Wis...+1.5 for Harris. Polls that are of quality mostly support Harris winning it and there's some signs in the early vote to support this idea.

Mi...2.5 for Harris. Early vote is very favorable out of Detroit. Record favorability and turnout for the democrats. IF this keeps up there is almost no question of Harris pulling up the state. +8 percent more female vote compared to the male vote!

Pa... .8 for Harris. Most early vote data is similar to Mi but the state is a good part more conservative outside the major cities. Major A and B rated polls mostly support Harris winning it.

Nc .1 Harris--Governor race will likely pull this race +1 towards Harris.
Ga 1 Trump
Florida 2.5 Trump

[weatheriscool]

When you look at the data the top ends are a fucking joke!

[spryfusion]

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[wjfox]

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