2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[caltrek]

A small early voting tidbit from NC (we only have about 47k people reporting as having voted), while registered Dems have a 13 pt lead in the early vote so far, they have a 17 pt lead among those who have voted already and weren't registered to vote in 2020.

This may be an area where Democrats can overperform the polls. It is simply difficult for pollsters to correctly factor such groups into their polling. Question is if they do miss, will that miss be all that significant?

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

A small early voting tidbit from NC (we only have about 47k people reporting as having voted), while registered Dems have a 13 pt lead in the early vote so far, they have a 17 pt lead among those who have voted already and weren't registered to vote in 2020.

This may be an area where Democrats can overperform the polls. It is simply difficult for pollsters to correctly factor such groups into their polling. Question is if they do miss, will that miss be all that significant?

One of the reasons Biden one Georgia is the senate race. Lower portions of the ticket can pull the race on the top! This year is less likely to go harris because the opposite is true but the fact that the black nazi is losing by -15 in north carolina will cause serious pull towards Harris. Here's hoping for a win! 2020 only want trump by a little over 1%...

[caltrek]

Harris Slams Trump's Refusal to Release Medical Records
by April Rubin, Sareen Habeshian
October 14, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) Vice President Kamala Harris is spotlighting former President Trump's yet-unfulfilled promise to release his medical records — a historical outlier among presidential candidates.

Why it matters: If he wins, Trump would be the oldest president ever inaugurated. However, his campaign has disclosed far less about his health than the White House has about President Biden's, whose fitness and age Trump repeatedly attacked.

• In August, Trump told CBS News that he would "very gladly" release his medical records to the public.

Reality check: That still hasn't happened with about three weeks to go until Election Day.

• "He refuses to release his medical records," Harris said at a Sunday rally, per NBC News. "I've done it. Every other presidential candidate in the modern era has done it."

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/10/14/trump ... -election

[caltrek]

House GOP Sees Path Through Rust Belt for Keeping Majority
by Juliegrace Brufke
October 13, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) House Republicans see a path to keeping their majority on Nov. 5 by picking up seats in the Rust Belt that they contend could help offset potential losses on the coast.

Why it matters: Political strategists have pointed to clusters of seats in New York and California as the key to which party will have a majority next year, but the National Republican Congressional Committee sees a window in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania to keep control or grow their numbers.

Driving the news: The House GOP's campaign arm has been paying for ads in the Michigan districts held by Democratic Reps. Hillary Scholten, Elissa Slotkin, who is running for Senate, and Dan Kildee, who is retiring.

• The NRCC is also investing in the Pennsylvania districts held by Democrats Susan Wild, Matt Cartwright and Chris Deluzio, as well as Ohio Rep. Emilia Sykes's (D) district.

Zoom in: Congressional Leadership Fund, a group with ties to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), similarly has ramped up spending by about $9 million in the past five weeks, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Additional extract:

The other side: Democrats dismissed the GOP's bullishness in the region, arguing their spending strategy is flawed and taking out Democratic incumbents will be a heavy lift.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/10/13/house ... rust-best

[caltrek]

Another Freedom Caucus Chair Fights for His Political Life
by Andrew Solender
October 13, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) Democrats are pouring money into taking down former House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.) — and this time, they just might succeed.

Why it matters: Perry has been a major thorn in the side of GOP leadership, leading the Freedom Caucus as it staged revolts against former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and current Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

State of play: Republican strategists told Axios they have not been viewing Perry as vulnerable, noting that the district went for former President Trump by 4 points in 2020.

• But polling suggests the race is highly competitive, with one recent survey even showing Perry's Democratic opponent, former local news anchor Janelle Stelson, up by 9 percentage points.

• Stelson has hammered Perry's co-sponsorship of the anti-abortion Life at Conception Act, and in a new ad first shared with Axios she frames herself as an outsider and voices support for term limits.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/10/13/anoth ... cal-life

[weatheriscool]

Michigan EV

2022 (total): 1.51M — 56.6% female / 43.4% male

2024:
468K — 55.4% female / 44.5% male
544K — 55.7% female / 44.3% male
610K — 55.9% female / 44.0% male

Continues to get more female. We'll see if it continues. A reminder also that MI had one of the least dropoffs from 2020 > 2022 in terms of turnout.

[weatheriscool]

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[weatheriscool]

PA update - 10/15

Total ballots requested: 1,700,513
Dems 1,013,462 (59.6%)
Reps 485,107 (28.5%)
Other 201,944 (11.9%)

Total ballots returned: 536,212 (32% return rate)
Dems 358,703 (66.9%)
Reps 130,076 (24.3%)
Other 47,433 (8.8%)

Dem return rate 35.4%
Rep return rate 26.8%







Ga

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

Latest from electionbettingodds.com...

https://electionbettingodds.com/Preside ... y2024.html

Sigh.

[weatheriscool]

Arizona is probably fucking gone for Harris. I feel pretty good about Pa and Michigan so I think the rust belt will come through for her. We will have to see how NC and Ga the next week before I make a call on those.




First day of early voting in Georgia breaks records with massive turnout

Source: 11 Alive News

Georgia set a new record for first-day early voting, with over 300,000 ballots cast, according to an update from Gabriel Sterling, chief operating officer in the Office of the Georgia Secretary of State.

Sterling posted the announcement on X, stating that the tally was 123% higher than the old record for the first day of early voting.

Sterling said in a previous X post that Georgia had already surpassed early voting numbers by 1 p.m. on Monday, with several hours of voting still to go.

He praised the efforts of county election offices and voters alike, describing the turnout as "MASSIVE" and encouraging Georgia residents to continue participating in the election process.

Read more: https://www.11alive.com/article/news/po ... 1ed7f47e0d

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[wjfox]

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[wjfox]

Nice. I think that's the first poll I've seen of her at 52%. If that lead was maintained until November, she'd be looking at 315+ electoral college votes.

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Fairleigh Dickinson: Harris +3

Harris 50
Trump 47

https://www.fdu.edu/news/114088/

YouGov/Economist: Harris +4

Harris 49%
Trump 45%

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/d ... cklxBQ.pdf