2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

[firestar464]

Behind CNN’s investigation on deceptive political fundraising that costs elderly donors their retirement savings

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/22/politics ... index.html

[wjfox]

TIPP Tracking Poll Day 11: Harris Extends Slim Lead To 3 Points In Heated Race

Harris’s Fourth Straight Day of Gains as Race Tightens

TIPP Staff
October 24, 2024

Harris holds a narrow 50%-47% lead, with the race tighter than ever, setting up a real fight to the finish. Over the past 10 days of our tracking, Trump has ranged between 46% and 49%, while Harris has fluctuated between 47% and 50%. This steady yet small margin suggests a volatile electorate, where every percentage point matters. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race.

https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking- ... ated-race/

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

The same as Georgia as it appears to be quite white compared to 2020. The southwest on the otherhand seem to be a lot more republican suggesting the hispanic vote is breaking for Trump.

This fucking sucks...As much as I don't want to believe it the early data suggest the polls may not be lying.

[wjfox]

Big Village
conducted Oct. 17 to 22

Harris 52%
Trump 45%

(1,592 likely voters)

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

My opinion looking at the data as of today
The bad
Florida isn't within 7% for harris. Certain Trump.
Georgia is 3-4% more white and the turn out in the rurals is fucking Amazing. 2-3% for Trump.
NC is slipping away...1-2% for Trump.
Arizona the republicans have a 80k lead and we're nearing a 1/3rd of 2020 vote. There's no way in hell Harris will win it on election night.
Nevada is gone for Harris. 2020 Biden had a 50k lead at this point,,,while Harris is down nearly 24k.

It will come down to the rust belt and Neb 2....
The good
Mi is safe Harris.
Pa the return rate for democrats is slowing fast so they'll be likely to get 400k firewall. The thing is republicans are voting early and so there's hope that the democrats will have a good election day to win it. I say 70% chance of Harris winning it.
Wi probably 8% for Harris as the midwest seems to be favorable for harris. As in the wave to the south isn't creepen in.
Neb-2 is leading by 4k votes for democrats.

[wjfox]

My opinion looking at the data as of today
The bad
Florida isn't within 7% for harris. Certain Trump.
Georgia is 3-4% more white and the turn out in the rurals is fucking Amazing. 2-3% for Trump.
NC is slipping away...1-2% for Trump.
Arizona the republicans have a 80k lead and we're nearing a 1/3rd of 2020 vote. There's no way in hell Harris will win it on election night.
Nevada is gone for Harris. 2020 Biden had a 50k lead at this point,,,while Harris is down nearly 24k.

It will come down to the rust belt and Neb 2....
The good
Mi is safe Harris.
Pa the return rate for democrats is slowing fast so they'll be likely to get 400k firewall. The thing is republicans are voting early and so there's hope that the democrats will have a good election day to win it. I say 70% chance of Harris winning it.
Wi probably 8% for Harris as the midwest seems to be favorable for harris. As in the wave to the south isn't creepen in.
Neb-2 is leading by 4k votes for democrats.

Based on what you've said here, the electoral college would be:

Democrats 275
Republicans 263

Even without Nebraska, Harris would still reach 270.

Or am I wrong?

Anyway, it's surely too early to be making such firm conclusions.

[weatheriscool]

pretty much. It is fun watching and studying the patterns and information. I do seriously feel down about the sunbelt....

[wjfox]

The Philadelphia Inquirer has just endorsed Kamala Harris for president:

"There has never been a more important presidential election in our lifetime. The road to the White House may well run through Pennsylvania and every vote matters."

[firestar464]

Republicans appeal a Georgia judge’s ruling that invalidates seven election rules

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA1ssOqU

Georgia Supreme Court rejects Republican attempt to quickly reinstate invalidated election rules

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/ge ... r-AA1sJJY5

[firestar464]

Georgia citizenship audit finds few noncitizens on voter rolls

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/ge ... r-AA1sNIPd

[firestar464]

NYT- How Trump Could Bankrupt Social Security

https://archive.ph/v4p8s

[weatheriscool]

NYT- How Trump Could Bankrupt Social Security

https://archive.ph/v4p8s

If Trump wins and gets what he wants on the courts he'll probably abolish it. Trump is very dangerous for the rights of the poor and disabled.

[weatheriscool]