2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[firestar464]

Victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election may come down to LGBTQ+ voters.

https://theconversation.com/lgbtq-voter ... ion-239656

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

Supreme Court allows Virginia to resume its purge of voter registrations

https://apnews.com/article/supreme-cour ... 7a42893757

I'm so fucking mad at this court right now

[raklian]

Supreme Court allows Virginia to resume its purge of voter registrations

https://apnews.com/article/supreme-cour ... 7a42893757

I'm so fucking mad at this court right now

Let's stack it.

[wjfox]

Georgia early voters are 'smashing' records

published at 14:27

Voters in the key battleground state of Georgia "are smashing through every voting record", Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has just announced.

More than 3 million people have participated in early voting in the state, Raffensperger says, compared to 2.1 million at this point in the last presidential election.

Two-thirds of the entire election turnout from 2020 have already voted in Georgia.

Joe Biden won Georgia in 2020 by less than 1%.

After Trump lost to Joe Biden, he accused the state of election fraud and called Raffensperger asking him to "find" enough votes that would give Trump the win.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx2n4l7 ... 8f1ee#post

[weatheriscool]

Rose Institute/YouGov: Harris +5 national, H+2 PA, H+29 CA, H+20 NY, T+5 TX and FL

National
RV: Harris 48, Trump 44 (with leaners: Harris 50, Trump 46)
LV: Harris 51, Trump 46

Pennsylvania
RV: Harris 48, Trump 46 (with leaners: Harris 50, Trump 47)
LV: Harris 50, Trump 48

California
RV: Harris 60, Trump 33 (with leaners: Harris 63, Trump 34)
LV: Harris 63, Trump 34

Florida
RV: Trump 50, Harris 45 (with leaners: Trump 51, Harris 46)
LV: Trump 51, Harris 46

Texas
RV: Trump 49, Harris 44 (with leaners: Trump 50, Harris 45)
LV: Trump 51, Harris 46

New York
RV: Harris 55, Trump 36 (with leaners: Harris 58, Trump 38)
LV: Harris 58, Trump 38

https://roseinstitute.org/2024-poll/

[Time_Traveller]

Arnold Schwarzenegger says he's voting for Kamala Harris in rare endorsement for former California governor

Updated on: October 30, 2024 / 8:29 AM PDT

With less than a week before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris has picked up a notable endorsement from a prominent Republican: former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

On Wednesday, the actor-turned-politician took to X, formerly known as Twitter, to explain his feelings about the election.

"I don't really do endorsements. I'm not shy about sharing my views, but I hate politics and don't trust most politicians," Schwarzenegger wrote.

Schwarzenegger said it made him "furious" to hear America being like a talked of like it's a garbage can — rhetoric former President Donald Trump recently used at a rally in Arizona.

"I will always be an American before I am a Republican. That's why, this week, I am voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz," Schwarzenegger wrote.

https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news ... president/

[wjfox]

Harris has 6-point lead in Wisconsin, 5-point lead in Michigan in new CNN polls

by Juliann Ventura - 10/30/24 1:34 PM ET

New polls for CNN find Vice President Harris with a 6-point lead over former President Trump in Wisconsin and a 5-point lead in Michigan.

The polls, conducted by SSRS, found Harris leading Trump in Wisconsin with 51 percent support to his 45 percent among likely voters. In Michigan, she led with 48 percent support to 43 percent.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ing-trump/

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Democrats See Signs for Optimism in Gender Gap in Early Vote
by Megan Messerly and Jessica Piper
October 29, 2024

Introduction:

(Politico) There’s a new kind of gender gap in the 2024 election: Women are voting early in huge numbers, far outpacing men.
It’s giving anxious Democrats — who see female voters as key to a Kamala Harris victory — newfound hope heading into the final week of the campaign.

Across battlegrounds, there is a 10-point gender gap in early voting so far: Women account for roughly 55 percent of the early vote, while men are around 45 percent, according to a POLITICO analysis of early vote data in several key states. The implications for next week’s election results are unclear; among registered Republicans, women are voting early more than men, too. But the high female turnout is encouraging to Democratic strategists, who expected that a surge in Republican turnout would result in more gender parity among early voters.

It’s impossible to know who these women are voting for, including whether Democrats are winning over unaffiliated or moderate Republican women disillusioned with former President Donald Trump. But the gender gap has been one of the defining features of the 2024 campaign, and Harris allies see the lack of a surge of male voters as an encouraging sign.

“In some states women are actually exceeding their vote share from 2020, which is at this point shocking to me,” said Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart. “I never would have bet on that.”

Read more here: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/2 ... -00186155

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[Time_Traveller]

Republicans preparing to reject US election result if Trump loses, warn strategists

Fri 1 Nov 2024 13.12 GMT

Republicans are already laying the ground for rejecting the result of next week’s US presidential election in the event Donald Trump loses, with early lawsuits baselessly alleging fraud and partisan polls exaggerating his popularity to make it harder for his supporters to accept that he did not win, veteran strategists say.

The warnings – from Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans – come as Americans prepare to vote on Tuesday in the most consequential presidential contest in generations. Most polls show Trump running neck and neck with Kamala Harris, the vice-president and Democratic nominee, with the two candidates seemingly evenly matched in seven key swing states.

But suspicions have been voiced over a spate of recent polls, mostly commissioned in battleground states from groups with Republican links, that mainly show Trump leading. The projection of surging Trump support as election day nears has drawn confident predictions from him and his supporters.

“We’re leading big in the polls, all of the polls,” Trump told a rally in New Mexico on Thursday. “I can’t believe it’s a close race,” he told a separate rally in North Carolina, a swing state where polls show he and Harris are in a virtual dead heat.

An internal memo sent to Trump by his chief pollster is confirming that story to him, with Tony Fabrizio declaring the ex-president’s “position nationally and in every single battleground state is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was four years ago”.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... n-lawsuits

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Five Demographic Narratives that Might Determine the 2024 Election
by Christian Paz
November 1, 2024

Introduction:

(Vox) The 2024 election cycle has produced some stunning and sometimes counterintuitive narratives about how demographic subgroups might end up voting. We may just see a historic gulf in the way men and women vote — or not. Polls suggest we’re in for the greatest racial realignment since the Civil Rights Act was passed — or it could be a mirage. Young people might sit out the election because they’re disillusioned and vote for a third party — or they could turn out in record numbers for Kamala Harris. The more diverse Sun Belt states might pave the way for a Donald Trump victory — but the predominantly older and whiter “Blue Wall” states might elect the first Black woman president.

We’ll know soon enough. Though Election Day is mere days away, at least 60 million people have already voted. Battleground states are hitting or exceeding their records for early voting. And with polls of likely voters still showing an evenly tied race, any combination of factors, events, or movements within the electorate could swing the outcome.

To that end, I’ve assembled a handful of questions we at Vox have been tracking for the last year. Their eventual answers could determine who wins the White House.

Will there be late deciders? And what might change their minds?...

Will there be Republican crossover to Harris?...

Will Arab American voters drift toward Republicans?...

Will Trump’s gamble on younger Black men pay off?...

Will Latino voters shift right in the states that matter?..

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/381 ... no-voter

caltrek’s comment: Per my post of October 31, 2024 10:13 am and cited article within that post, I am surprised that something like “Will the gender gap resulting in more women voting for Harris shift the election in her favor?” was not included in this list.

Related to that would be abortion rights concerns. Subsequent to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a lot of women have registered to vote and then voted in high percentages in a manner that is hard for polling organizations to track accurately. Or so some have argued.

[weatheriscool]

CA update - 11/1

Dems 3,057,381 (48.8%)
Reps 1,872,532 (29.9%)
Other 1,339,326 (21.4%)

= 6,269,239 total