Economic and jobs news thread

[weatheriscool]

Trump says he will introduce 25% tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals and chips

Source: Reuters via Yahoo Finance

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he intends to impose auto tariffs "in the neighborhood of 25%" and similar duties on semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports, the latest in a series of measures threatening to upend international trade.

On Friday, Trump said levies on automobiles would come as soon as April 2, the day after members of his cabinet are due to deliver reports to him outlining options for a range of import duties as he seeks to reshape global trade.

Trump has long pointed to what he calls unfair treatment of U.S. automotive exports in foreign markets.

The European Union, for instance, collects a 10% tariff on vehicle imports, four times the U.S. passenger car tariff rate of 2.5%. The U.S., though, collects a 25% tariff on imported pickup trucks from countries other than Mexico and Canada, a tax that makes the vehicles highly profitable for Detroit automakers.

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-au ... 16712.html

[weatheriscool]

Dow tumbles more than 700 points as inflation and tariff fears mount

Source: CNN

By David Goldman, CNN

US stock markets fell sharply Friday after an economic report showed American consumers are growing increasingly fearful of price increases and how President Donald Trump’s tariffs could reignite the inflation crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 748 points, or 1.7%. The broader S&P 500 also sank 1.7% and the Nasdaq was 2.2% lower. The Dow tumbled for the second consecutive day, falling about 1,200 points over the course of Thursday and Friday.

The University of Michigan’s latest survey, released Friday, showed that US consumer sentiment declined in February for the second consecutive month, according to a final reading, down by a steep 10% from January. That was double the decline initially reported earlier this month. The survey found that Americans are losing confidence in the economy, driven primarily by worries over Trump’s tariffs potentially jacking up prices.

A new CNN poll released Thursday similarly showed pessimism on the rise because of prices: Nearly two thirds of US adults nationwide, 62%, said they feel Trump isn’t doing enough to address inflation. The Michigan survey showed that Americans are now fearful of higher inflation on the horizon.

Investors grew fearful that weak consumer sentiment could lead to a pullback in Americans’ shopping habits. Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of the US economy.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/21/investin ... index.html

[caltrek]

Dow tumbles more than 700 points as inflation and tariff fears mount

Source: CNN

By David Goldman, CNN

US stock markets fell sharply Friday after an economic report showed American consumers are growing increasingly fearful of price increases and how President Donald Trump’s tariffs could reignite the inflation crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 748 points, or 1.7%. The broader S&P 500 also sank 1.7% and the Nasdaq was 2.2% lower. The Dow tumbled for the second consecutive day, falling about 1,200 points over the course of Thursday and Friday.

The University of Michigan’s latest survey, released Friday, showed that US consumer sentiment declined in February for the second consecutive month, according to a final reading, down by a steep 10% from January. That was double the decline initially reported earlier this month. The survey found that Americans are losing confidence in the economy, driven primarily by worries over Trump’s tariffs potentially jacking up prices.

A new CNN poll released Thursday similarly showed pessimism on the rise because of prices: Nearly two thirds of US adults nationwide, 62%, said they feel Trump isn’t doing enough to address inflation. The Michigan survey showed that Americans are now fearful of higher inflation on the horizon.

Investors grew fearful that weak consumer sentiment could lead to a pullback in Americans’ shopping habits. Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of the US economy.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/21/investin ... index.html

More on that: https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... ve-202502

[weatheriscool]

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariff ... e71520dc98

Trump says Canada and Mexico tariffs are ‘going forward’ with more import taxes to come
By JOSH BOAK and FABIOLA SANCHEZ
Updated 5:37 PM CST, February 24, 2025

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said Monday that his tariffs on Canada and Mexico are starting next month, ending a monthlong suspension on the planned import taxes that could potentially hurt economic growth and worsen inflation.

“We’re on time with the tariffs, and it seems like that’s moving along very rapidly,” the U.S. president said at a White House news conference with French President Emmanuel Macron.

While Trump was answering a specific question about the taxes to be charged on America’s two largest trading partners, the U.S. president also stressed more broadly that his intended “reciprocal” tariffs were on schedule to begin as soon as April.

“The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule,” Trump said.

Trump has claimed that other countries charge unfair import taxes that have come at the expense of domestic manufacturing and jobs. His near constant threats of tariffs have already raised concerns among businesses and consumers about an economic slowdown and accelerating inflation. But Trump claims that the import taxes would ultimately generate revenues to reduce the federal budget deficit and new jobs for workers.

“Our country will be extremely liquid and rich again,” Trump said.

[caltrek]

Consumer Confidence Index Nosedives After Month of Trump Presidency
by Julia Conley
February 25, 2025

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) With the first month of U.S. President Donald Trump's second term in office characterized by threats to impose tariffs on close international allies and the mass firing of tens of thousands of federal workers—but not the promised lower grocery prices that Trump repeatedly touted during his campaign—a survey found consumer confidence plummeted in February to its lowest level since last June.

The Conference Board, a global nonprofit think tank, reported on Tuesday the sharpest monthly decline in consumer confidence in four years, with the index dropping from 105.3 in January to 98.3 this month.

Economists had projected the index to read 103 in February, but with respondents telling the Conference Board that they were concerned about inflation and Trump's tariffs plan, consumer anxiety was higher than experts had anticipated.

Trump said shortly after taking office that he would impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, only to suspend them for several weeks. On Monday, the president said at a news conference that the tariffs would start next month.

The impending policy has set off fears of a trade war and higher costs for U.S. consumers.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/conf ... nfidence

[weatheriscool]

U.S. Economy Shows Signs of Strain From Trump’s Tariffs and Spending Cuts
Consumer and business sentiment is wobbling as fiscal support fades and fears rise that tariffs will lead to higher prices.


Economists have warned that President Trump’s plans to enact sweeping tariffs could cause prices to rise and trigger trade wars that would suppress growth. Erin Schaff/The New York Times

By Alan Rappeport
Reporting from Washington

Feb. 27, 2025, 5:02 a.m. ET
The United States economy is starting to show signs of strain as President Trump’s abrupt moves to shrink federal spending, lay off government workers and impose tariffs on America’s largest trading partners rattle businesses and reverberate across states and cities. ... Funding freezes and firings of federal workers combined with the prospect of costly trade wars are souring consumer sentiment, raising inflation expectations and stalling business investment plans, according to recent economic surveys.

Local economies are also bracing for a sudden withdrawal of fiscal support, forcing officials to contemplate tax increases or municipal bond offerings to stabilize their budgets. While Mr. Trump has acknowledged that his policies could bring some initial pain, the early warning signs suggest that his blunt approach could come with more ominous risks to the economy.

“There’s more uncertainty than I think is widely appreciated,” said Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “All the uncertainty around trade policy, uncertainty around some of the things that the Department of Government Efficiency is doing, I think will have a chilling effect on investment plans and expansion plans.”

{snip}

A historically strong labor market, with a national unemployment rate of 4 percent, is also in jeopardy. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, has initiated thousands of job cuts across the federal government. The work force reductions are just beginning as the cost-cutting initiative scrutinizes how agencies align with Mr. Trump’s agenda. ... The firings are reverberating beyond Washington, spurring protests at town hall meetings and backlash from some Republican lawmakers, who have expressed alarm about the economic fallout in their states.

{snip}


Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/busi ... onomy.html

[weatheriscool]

Trump threatens to double tariffs on China and says punishing Mexico and Canada tariffs will go into effect March 4
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/27/economy/ ... index.html
By Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN

Updated 9:22 AM EST, Thu February 27, 2025

mages

CNN
—
President Donald Trump said Thursday tariffs of 25% on Mexican and Canadian goods are set to take effect on March 4, while also threatening to impose an additional 10% on Chinese imports on the same date.

“Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social Thursday morning. The president has tied tariffs on America’s neighbors to illegal migration and flow of fentanyl into the country.

“We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled,” he said.

The 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada had already been set to go into effect, but the president had not previously threatened to impose an additional 10% tariffs on Chinese imports after the initial 10% tariff on the country’s goods went into effect earlier this month.

Futures on the Dow turned negative Thursday morning after Trump’s comments, falling 90 points after trading higher. But futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remained higher, propelled by Wednesday’s strong earnings from Nvidia.

[caltrek]

U.S. Economy on Track for Negative GDP in Trump’s First Quarter Back
by Jai Hamid
March 1, 2025

Introduction:

(Cryptopolitan) The US economy is already slipping in 2025, and the numbers don’t look good for President Donald Trump, who took the Oval back on January 20.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GDP is on track to contract by 1.5% in the first quarter, a drop from the 2.3% growth estimate made just five weeks ago.

The GDPNow tracker, which updates in real-time based on incoming data, used to point to 3.9% growth, but new numbers from the Commerce Department sent it plunging.

An economic report released on Friday morning showed that personal spending fell 0.2% in January, missing the Dow Jones estimate of a 0.1% increase. After adjusting for inflation, it was even worse—a 0.5% drop, enough to wipe an entire percentage point off GDP expectations.

The US economy relies heavily on consumer spending, as it makes up for more than two-thirds of GDP. A 0.2% decline might seem small, but it’s the largest monthly drop in four years. The hit came from weaker-than-expected retail sales, as Americans pulled back on spending due to high inflation, policy uncertainty, and market volatility.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/market ... 55b&ei=63

caltrek's comment: Some friends of ours were telling my wife how they expected the economy to improve now that Trump is president. I wonder what they are thinking now.'

From a more or less random encounter with a Trump supporter, the line he was promoting was that a lot of short-term pain is necessary for long term improvement. I suppose the goal post will just keep shifting as promised benefits recede further and further into the future without ever actually being realized. (Except perhaps by certain 1% insiders benefiting from hefty government contracts.)

[caltrek]

Trump-linked Assets Take a Hit in Wall Street's Tumble
by Declan Harty
March 2, 2025

Introduction:

(Politico) Wall Street is caught in a deepening decline that is sparing no risky asset. Not even those tied to President Donald Trump.
Publicly traded investments linked to the Trump empire — from the president's majority stake in Trump Media & Technology Group to his and First Lady Melania Trump's memecoins — have plunged in value since Inauguration Day, as part of a broader selloff in the more speculative corners of the markets.

Shares of Trump Media, the parent company of Truth Social, have fallen 36 percent. The $TRUMP memecoin, a cryptocurrency token that the president and his team launched just days before he was sworn in, has dropped 64 percent. And the $MELANIA memecoin has crashed from its high of more than $13. It's now trading for less than $1.

“Trump was an amazing catalyst for all of the Trump names,” Tuttle Capital Management CEO Matthew Tuttle said. “But what happens is all this stuff becomes a bubble looking for a pin, and eventually, the bubble always finds the pin. These things can’t defy gravity forever.”

The declines underscore the shift that has rocked the U.S. financial markets in recent weeks, derailing the sorts of record highs that Trump loves to tout.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/market ... cfa&ei=34

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

February Jobs Report Could Signal Rapid Turn in Labor Market
by Dean Baker
March 4, 2025

Introduction:

(Center for Economic and Jobs Research) February 2025 Jobs Preview: What to Expect in the Jobs Report

The February employment report is the first of the Trump administration. While we are not likely to pick up much of the effect of the DOGE cuts, we should see some impact. Remember, the reference period is the week/pay period that includes the 12th. This is before most of the firings went into effect, and there was no noticeable uptick in the unemployment insurance claims at that point (although we did see an uptick later in the month).

However, we are likely to see an effect on the hiring side. Many businesses have put hiring plans on hold, as they wait to see what DOGE will try to cut and what the courts will uphold. This is especially the case in the healthcare sector, which had been the largest source of job growth in the recovery, averaging over 50,000 new jobs a month in the last year. A large portion of the funding for hospitals, doctors’ fees, and nursing homes comes from Medicaid and other programs that may be in DOGE’s crosshairs. As a result, we can expect employers in the sector to be very cautious in taking on new workers.

There is a similar story with state and local governments, which also were a leading source of job growth in the last year. They are concerned that they will not be seeing federal grants that had been promised. Universities are also looking at large cutbacks in federal support and feel the need to be cautious about hiring.

With the key sectors supporting job growth sharply slowing hiring, job growth is likely to be close to zero in February. This may also lead to a modest uptick in the unemployment rate, as people entering the labor force or losing jobs find themselves unable to find new ones. The unemployment rate may tick up to 4.1 percent, or even 4.2 percent.

Read more here: https://cepr.net/publications/february ... preview /

[weatheriscool]

- US employers cut more jobs last month than any February since 2009
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/06/economy/ ... index.html
By Alicia Wallace, CNN
Updated 9:12 AM EST, Thu March 6, 2025

The Trump administration’s massive federal cuts and swelling feelings of economic uncertainty helped fuel a recession-level spike in layoff plans last month, new data showed Thursday.

US-based employers last month announced plans to slash 172,017 jobs, a 103% increase from January and the highest February total since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas’s latest monthly job cuts report released Thursday.

It’s the 12th highest monthly total in the 32 years Challenger has been tracking job cuts. The 11 others (four came during the Covid-19 pandemic) all occurred when the US was in a recession, Challenger data shows.

The largest share of job cut announcements came in the government sector, where the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency has axed jobs, slashed federal spending and scrapped contracts.

By Challenger’s count, there were 62,242 announced cuts across 17 federal agencies. That’s a 41,311% increase from the 151 cuts announced through February 2024, Challenger noted.

[caltrek]

Dow Jones Soars 500 Points As Trump Delays Tariff On Autos; Nvidia Rises As Rivals Set To Report
March 5, 2025

Introduction:

(Investors Business Daily) The Dow Jones Industrial Average charged higher in afternoon trades Wednesday and was joined by the other major indexes after President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on autos. The move gave a lift to several sectors on the stock market today.

Dow stocks jumped roughly 500 points, or 1.2%, in recent action. Dow component Nvidia rose after Tuesday's rebound but continued to trade below its 200-day moving average. Its Relative Strength Rating has fallen to 62.

he S&P 500 managed a 1.1% gain. All S&P sectors gained except energy and utilities.

The Nasdaq composite took the lead and marched 1.3% higher after dull morning action. Amazon.com, which found support at its 200-day line Tuesday, added to early gains and rose 3%

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/market ... ce&ei=52

caltrek’s comment: Pundits speak of the lack of guardrails restraining Trump in his second term. Perhaps there is still one guardrail in place: the stock markets and how they react to economic initiatives put forth by Trump. While it is clear Trump is hell bent on imposing high tariffs, the reaction of the stock market may compel him to at least pause those efforts.

[firestar464]

Aaaand they're back down

https://apnews.com/article/stocks-marke ... e6a178f7e9

[firestar464]

Trump changes course and delays tariffs on Mexico, but they remain in place for Canada

https://apnews.com/article/tariffs-trum ... 0f94c78814

[weatheriscool]

U.S. payroll growth totals 151,000 in February, less than expected

Source: CNBC

Published Fri, Mar 7 2025 8:31 AM EST Updated 10 Min Ago

Job growth was weaker than expected in February though still stable despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to slash the federal workforce.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January but less than the 170,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%.



The report comes amid efforts from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to pare down the federal government, starting with buyout incentives and including mass firings that have impacted multiple departments.

Though the reductions likely won’t be felt fully until coming months, the efforts are beginning to show. Federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February though government payrolls overall increased by 11,000, the BLS said.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-re ... -2025.html

[weatheriscool]

Carney says Canada's tariffs to stay until US shows 'respect'

Bloomberg
Canada will keep in place its retaliatory tariffs against US-made products as long as President Donald Trump persists with a trade war, said Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister-designate.

“The Canadian government is rightly retaliating with our own tariffs,” Carney said during his victory speech Sunday. “My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect — and make credible, reliable commitments to free and fair trade.”

Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, won the contest to lead the Liberal Party and will be sworn in as prime minister within days, replacing Justin Trudeau. It was a blowout victory — he received 86% of the vote
snip

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carney-s ... 19530.html

[weatheriscool]

China strikes back at Trump tariffs with 15% levies targeting US farmers
https://apnews.com/article/china-tariff ... bf2a30de64

By PAUL WISEMAN
Updated 12:05 PM CDT, March 10, 2025

WASHINGTON (AP) — China retaliated against President Donald Trump’s tariffs with an additional 15% tax on key American farm products, including chicken, pork, soybeans and beef.

The escalating trade tensions punished U.S. markets Monday as investors fearful of the damage from from Trump’s trade wars put their money elsewhere.

The Chinese tariffs, announced last week, were a response to Trump’s decision to double the levy on Chinese imports to 20% on March 4. China’s Commerce Ministry had earlier said that goods already in transit would be exempt from the retaliatory tariffs until April 12.

Imposing tariffs on imports is a key part of Trump’s agenda. He believes the import taxes can raise money for the Treasury, protect American industries and pressure foreign countries to do what he wants in a range of issues, including immigration and drug trafficking.

During his first term, Trump spent tens of billions of dollars in taxpayer money to compensate farmers for lost exports.

[weatheriscool]

Trump raises Canadian steel, aluminum tariffs to 50% in retaliation for Ontario energy duties

Source: CNBC

Published Tue, Mar 11 2025 10:09 AM EDT Updated 15 Min Ago

President Donald Trump said Tuesday he has ordered his administration to raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports by an additional 25%, bringing the total duties to 50%. The new policy will go into effect Wednesday morning, Trump said in a Truth Social post that also repeated his calls for Canada to be absorbed into the U.S. as the “Fifty First State.”

Trump said he was imposing the latest tariffs in response to a decision by Ontario’s government to slap a 25% tax on electricity exports to the U.S. That move by Ontario Premier Doug Ford was itself issued in retaliation to the sweeping 25% tariffs that Trump had placed on imports from Canada.

“Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on “Electricity” coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday morning.

“This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12th,” he wrote.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/11/trump-r ... uties.html

[weatheriscool]

Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hits 12-year low

Source: CNBC

Consumer confidence dimmed further in March as the view of future conditions fell to the lowest level in more than a decade, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 93.5.

However, the measure for future expectations told an even darker story, with the index tumbling 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80 level that is considered a signal for a recession ahead.

In addition to the general pessimism, the outlook for the stock market slid sharply, with just 37.4% of respondents expecting higher equity prices in the next year. That marked a 10 percentage point drop from February and was the first time the view turned negative since late 2023.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/consume ... r-low.html