Ukraine War Watch Thread

[firestar464]

More on that by Sky News:

https://news.sky.com/story/trump-zelens ... eblog-body

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Trump threatens Russia with sanctions, tariffs unless ceasefire, peace deal with Ukraine

Source: ABC

President Donald Trump on Friday said he would turn up the heat on Russia unless it seeks a ceasefire and peace a deal with Ukraine.

Trump threatened Russia with sanctions and tariffs in a Truth Social post Friday.

"Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely 'pounding' Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED. To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you," he posted without further details.

The Biden administration previously issued sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine three years ago.

Read more: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-t ... =119551657

[firestar464]

MOOD SWING ACTIVATED

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

More on that by Politico:

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-sate ... port-says/

[wjfox]

[firestar464]

Zelensky 1 Elon 0

[caltrek]

Russia's Arms Exports are Going Bust
March 8, 2025

Introduction:

(Business Insider)
• Russia's weapons exports have plummeted amid the Ukraine conflict.
• France overtook Russia last year as the second-largest arms exporter globally.
• Russian weapons makers face a range of challenges that have emerged following the Ukraine invasion.

It has been three years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the conflict has had a profound effect on the Russian weapons industry, causing its arms exports to plummet.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIRPI), which researches conflict and arms, calculates that Russian arms exports decreased by half from 2019 to 2023 compared to the previous five-year period.

Other estimates paint an even bleaker picture.

Causes identified include a shift to supplying weapons needed by Russia to fight Ukraine, countries turning to the West for supply needs, sanctions, and reputational losses as Russian weapons have been seen as performing poorly in combat.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/r ... 819&ei=74

[wjfox]

Starlink Competitor Eutelsat Says It Can Deploy 40K Terminals in Ukraine Within a ‘Couple of Months’

Mar 07, 2025 | 12:12 PM UTC
By James Morales

President Donald Trump’s order to pause military aid to Ukraine has sparked a conversation about shifting away from American communications technology.

Against that backdrop, the French aerospace firm Eutelsat is in advanced talks to replace Starlink as Ukraine’s primary satellite internet provider, CEO Eva Berneke confirmed on Thursday, March 6.

Discussing the role of Eutelsat’s satellite communications service, Berneke said OneWeb is already providing “a lot of capacity to Ukraine.”

However, as European leaders move to reduce their dependency on American military support, she said discussions about increasing coverage “have intensified over the last couple of weeks.”

“Until now we have been together with Starlink there,” she said, adding that the prospect of OneWeb completely replacing Starlink has taken on new urgency. “That’s something we’re looking very actively at,” Berneke observed.

https://www.ccn.com/news/business/eutel ... ock-surge/

[firestar464]

Le Figaro article (in French) on JD Vance's estranged cousin who fights for Ukraine

https://archive.ph/ByRjR

[weatheriscool]

US resumes military aid and intelligence sharing as Ukraine says it is open to a 30-day ceasefire

Source: AP

Updated 3:19 PM EDT, March 11, 2025

JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — The Trump administration lifted its suspension of military aid and intelligence sharing for Ukraine, and Kyiv signaled that it was open to a 30-day ceasefire in the war with Russia, pending Moscow’s agreement, American and Ukrainian officials said Tuesday following talks in Saudi Arabia.

The administration’s decision marked a sharp shift from only a week ago, when it imposed the measures to push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to enter talks to end the war with invading Russian forces. The suspension of U.S. assistance came days after Zelenskyy and Trump argued about the war in a tense White House meeting.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who led the U.S. delegation to the talks in Jeddah, said Washington would present the ceasefire offer to the Kremlin, which has thus far opposed anything short of a permanent end to the conflict without accepting any concessions.

“We’re going to tell them this is what’s on the table. Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking. And now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no,” Rubio told reporters after the meeting. “If they say no, then we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.”

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 6e134690b6

[weatheriscool]

Russia says it does not want a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine

Source: Financial Times

Russia does not want a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine and is pushing for a long-term peace settlement that will take into account its interests and concerns, a senior aide to Vladimir Putin has said.

Yuri Ushakov, the Russian president’s foreign policy adviser, told state television on Thursday that the 30-day ceasefire proposed after talks between the US and Ukraine this week was “nothing other than a temporary breather for Ukrainian troops”.

“Nobody needs steps that imitate peaceful actions in this situation,” Ushakov said, adding that Moscow “hopes [the US] knows our position and wants to believe that they will take it into account as we work together going forward”.

Russia’s rejection of the US proposal aligned with Putin’s hardline stance ahead of high-level talks later on Thursday in Moscow, where Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, has landed.

Read more: https://www.ft.com/content/c169189c-464 ... 31ac61a7c7

[caltrek]

Wartime Destruction of Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine Has Long-term Environmental Consequences
March 13, 2025

Introduction:

(Eurekalert)
The deliberate destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian war unleashed a hidden environmental crisis, destroying ecosystems and releasing polluted sediments into downstream water systems, according to a new study. The findings provide critical new insights into the prolonged ecological risks of strategic dam destruction during warfare and the effects that may persist for years beyond war. “Our work highlights the far-reaching environmental consequences of the [Kakhovka Dam] destruction and raises concerns not only about the use of water as a weapon, but also about risks posed by aging dams around the world,” write the authors. Dams are critical pieces of modern water infrastructure, supporting agriculture, energy production, and water supply. While the likelihood of structural failure is relatively low, aging infrastructure and the growing impacts of climate change have raised concerns about their stability. However, an often-overlooked risk factor is human conflict, as the deliberate destruction of dams – despite being prohibited under the Geneva Conventions – has increasingly been used as a weapon of war through intentional destruction, amplifying both humanitarian and environmental crises. A recent example of this was the military destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine in June 2023. The collapse not only caused catastrophic flooding but also released pollutants trapped in reservoir sediments. While the economic and societal impacts of the destruction have been discussed, the long-term environmental effects and their human hazards remain poorly understood. Combining field surveys, remote sensing data, and hydrodynamic modeling, Oleksandra Shumilova and colleagues assessed the human hazards resulting from the Kakhovka Dam collapse and predicted ecosystem recovery trends following the disaster. According to the findings, the dam’s destruction resulted in substantial erosion, soil loss, and vegetation uprooting, driving extensive habitat destruction. Perhaps more concerning, the rapid draining of the reservoir triggered a “toxic time-bomb,” releasing as much as 1.7 cubic kilometers of sediments contaminated by a host of pollutants, including heavy metals, nitrogen, and phosphorous. Given their persistent nature, these pollutants will pose severe long-term ecological and human health risks across the affected area. Shumilova et al. predict that within five years, 80% of the ecosystem functions lost due to the dam’s presence will be restored and that biodiversity in the floodplain is likely to recover significantly within two years. However, while heavy metal contamination can be mitigated through bioremediation (i.e. using plants to absorb pollutants), the persistent pollutants will remain a major concern.

Source: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1076277

For a presentation of study results as published in Science: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adn8655

[weatheriscool]

US, Russia talks on Ukraine ceasefire end after 12 hours

Source: Yahoo News

A meeting between Russian and US officials on a partial ceasefire in Ukraine ended after 12 hours of negotiations in Saudi Arabia on Monday, Russian state media reported, with a joint statement expected the following day.

With Ukrainian negotiators waiting nearby, a day after they sat down with the US team, the Americans and Russians met in Riyadh with a Black Sea ceasefire top of the agenda.

President Donald Trump is pushing for a rapid end to the three-year war and hopes the latest round of talks will pave the way for a breakthrough.

While the talks took place at a luxury hotel in the Saudi capital, nearly 90 people including 17 children were wounded in a missile attack on Sumy in northeastern Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-russia-ta ... 42584.html

[weatheriscool]

Russia says it will sign Black Sea deal if US gives 'order' to Zelenskiy

Source: Reuters

Russia said on Tuesday it was willing to strike a new agreement on the safety of shipping in the Black Sea - a possible stepping stone towards a ceasefire with Ukraine - but only if the United States ordered President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to respect it.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said only such an order would provide the assurances that Russia needed.

-snip-

"We will need clear guarantees. And given the sad experience of agreements with just Kyiv, the guarantees can only be the result of an order from Washington to Zelenskiy and his team to do one thing and not the other," Lavrov said in televised comments.

"And it seems to me that our American partners have received this signal. They understand that only Washington can achieve positive results in stopping terrorist attacks, stopping shelling of civilian infrastructure, energy infrastructure not related to the military-industrial complex."

-snip-

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 025-03-25/

[firestar464]

The Partnership: The Secret History of the War in Ukraine

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... SQqJQRRwKZ

Key takeaways:

- The Kherson counteroffensive was supposed to come after Kharkiv but Zelensky changed the order so that he could present progress at the UN General Assembly to drum up support, meaning that Ukraine found itself short on supply. The Americans had urged Ukraine to advance anyway, lest Russian forces escape (they did, as Ukraine did not advance). Indeed, Maj. Gen Andrii Kovalchuk should've been fired for his failure to advance. Also disappointing was Brig. Gen Oleksandr Tarnavaskyi's failure to face small Russian detachments head on, thus slowing the advance and allowing Russian forces to escape. This becomes a key theme, with Americans telling Tarnavaskyi to advance, only for the dude to go "but...there's a few Russians...much scared"
- Also annoying was Syrsky+Zelensky drama with Zaluzhnyi. End result was the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, as they disregarded the advice of both Zaluzhnyi and Zelensky. Basically the OG plan was for Syrsky to contribute 4 experienced brigades for foreign training. Instead Syrsky told US Gen. Aguto to "take all new guys" for Melitopol. Also the Ukrainians delayed too long. Then Syrsky broke with the established counteroffensive plan and didn't send ammo for the Melitopol attack. God this piece has cultivated within me a deep hatred for this guy. f*ck HIM. SERIOUSLY. I AM FUCKING PISSED. f*ck THIS GUY
-(The failure to lower the draft age to 18 didn't help with manpower issues)
-Donahue is pretty much gigachad. Major respect to the man

Prior to reading this piece, I'd assumed based on Institute for the Study of War assessments that Ukrainian failures were due to a lack of aid and US fear of Russian "red lines." While there definitely could've been more aid and spine from the US, the failures are mostly the fault of Syrsky and Tarnavaskyi. Zelensky is also at fault here, as he put his fears of being upstaged politically before military success.

[firestar464]

Harvard expert says Russia could annex seven former Soviet states “within hours” if Ukraine falls

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/03/30/ ... ine-falls/

[caltrek]

Trump Says He's 'Very Angry' and 'Pissed Off' at Putin During an NBC News Interview
by Kristen Welker and Megan Lebowitz
March 30, 2025

Introduction:

(NBC) WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said he was “very angry” and “pissed off” when Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized the credibility of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s leadership, adding that the comments were “not going in the right location.”

Agence France-Presse reported that Putin on Friday called for a transitional government to be put in place in Ukraine, which could effectively push out Zelenskyy.

“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump said in an early-morning phone call with NBC News on Sunday.

“That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States,” Trump said. “There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil.”

Read more here: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donal ... a198729

caltrek: Remember when Trump indicated he would have a negotiated end to the war before he even assumed office if he was elected president?

[wjfox]

Sweden announces more Ukraine military aid worth $1.6 billion

March 31, 20251:44 PM GMT+1

STOCKHOLM, March 31 (Reuters) - Sweden announced a new military aid package to Ukraine worth 16 billion crowns ($1.59 billion) on Monday, the biggest package to date from the Nordic country, saying it wanted to help Kyiv strengthen its position in talks on ending the war.

The bulk of the package, nine billion crowns, will consist of new equipment that will be purchased in processes led by the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration, Defence Minister Pal Jonson told a press conference.

Around five billion crowns will be financial donations for Ukraine's defence industry.

"We are now at a critical stage of the war. Our focus is now on supporting Ukraine as much as possible so that they can get into a position of strength during these negotiations," he said.

Jonson said all European countries now need to increase their support to Ukraine. "More need to do more."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sw ... 025-03-31/