Iran news and discussion

[wjfox]

[firestar464]

On Oct 28 (tomorrow or today depending on where you are), it will be the one year anniversary of the death of Armita Geravand.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Armita_Geravand

[firestar464]

Woman strips off clothes at Iran university in apparent protest, reports say

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-11-02/

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202411025012 (for more context)

[caltrek]

Iran’s Currency Was Already Tumbling − and Then News of Trump’s Victory Broke
by Nader Habibi
November, 2024

Introduction:

(The Conversation) As the world absorbed news of Donald Trump’s comeback victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, concern in Iran turned to the impact of the election on its own economy amid escalating regional tensions.

Iran’s currency, the rial, fell to an all-time low on Nov. 6. 2024 – trading at above 700,000 rials to the dollar.

But how are Trump’s win and Iran’s economic woes related? The Conversation U.S. turned to Nader Habibi, an expert on the Iranian economy at Brandeis University, to explain.

What has happened to Iran’s currency?

The rial fell to a fresh record low as Donald Trump was claiming victory – trading above the symbolic marker of 700,000 rials to the dollar, according to traders in Tehran, just as results of the U.S. election were coming in.

But it is important to note that Iran’s currency has been losing value steadily in recent months. This has mainly been because of high inflation in the country, which throughout 2024 has been above 30% on a year-to-year basis, and because the government has had to run large budget deficits. It has also been caused by the recent escalation of tensions – and a fresh round of missile exchanges – between Iran and Israel.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/irans-curr ... ke-243098

[caltrek]

Iran and Ethiopia Have a Security Deal – Here’s Why They Signed It
by Eric Lob
May 13, 2025

Introduction:

(The Conversation) Ethiopia and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on 6 May 2025. Under it, their national police agencies will cooperate on security and intelligence. This will include combating cross-border crime, sharing intelligence and building capacity. They will also share experiences and training.

For Iran, the MOU marks a significant step towards strengthening relations with a regional power that’s strategically located in the Horn of Africa.

Tehran has been using its security apparatus and military capabilities to establish and expand political and economic ties with countries in Africa. This has included drone transfers to the Ethiopian government that helped it turned the tide of the Tigray war, a separatist struggle in the country’s north that took place from 2020 to 2022.

Iran has also supplied the Sudanese army with surveillance and combat drones. These have been used against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan’s ongoing civil war.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/iran-and-e ... t-256486

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

The Son of the Last Shah Wants to Be the Next Leader of Iran
By Daniel Block
June 24, 2025

Introduction:

(Politico) On Monday, Reza Pahlavi — the son of Iran’s last shah — gave a speech proclaiming the Islamic Republic’s end was near. “This is our Berlin Wall moment,” Pahlavi declared. He was dressed in a white shirt, a blue tie and a crisp suit with an Iran-shaped lapel pin. The future, he said, was bright. Together, Iranians would build a better country, free of tyranny. “Imagine this new Iran,” he said. “A free and democratic Iran, living at peace with our neighbors, an engine of growth and opportunity.”

If Pahlavi sounds a little like a presidential contender giving a campaign speech, that is because, in a sense, he is: Reza Pahlavi is running to be Iran’s next leader. The erstwhile crown prince has been criticizing the country’s Islamist autocracy since he went into exile almost five decades ago. But in recent years, he has become increasingly vocal — and increasingly insistent that he should lead any pivot. “I am stepping forward to lead this national transition,” Pahlavi said. “I have a clear plan.”

It is easy to see why Pahlavi has chosen this week to boldly promote his candidacy. Over the last 12 days, Israel bombed Iranian military, energy and political facilities in the biggest attack on the country since the 1980s. On Saturday, the United States joined in, striking three Iranian nuclear sites. According to U.S. President Donald Trump, the various parties have now agreed to a ceasefire. But tensions remain high, and it is unclear whether there will be a lasting peace. Trump, for example, has signaled that he is open to taking down the entire regime. If “the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!” he wrote in a Sunday social media post. Left unclear was how Trump would want that regime change to occur — by further American military involvement or by an organic uprising of disaffected Iranians.

Over the course of his time abroad, Pahlavi has built up a sizable following in Iran’s diaspora. These backers believe that, should the regime fall, the former crown prince is perfectly positioned to take charge.

Read more here: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine ... -00417941

The linked article is somewhat longer than the typical article for which I provide links.

caltrek’s comment: As the article points out it should be noted that Pahlavi’s father was a highly authoritarian ruler that “locked up opponents and banned various political parties…(and) had a formidable secret police.”

[zzz]

It would be a better change imo considering he doesn't wants to bring war to other countries at least for now.

Will it happen? Not this decade probably.

[firestar464]

The Son of the Last Shah Wants to Be the Next Leader of Iran
By Daniel Block
June 24, 2025

Introduction:

(Politico) On Monday, Reza Pahlavi — the son of Iran’s last shah — gave a speech proclaiming the Islamic Republic’s end was near. “This is our Berlin Wall moment,” Pahlavi declared. He was dressed in a white shirt, a blue tie and a crisp suit with an Iran-shaped lapel pin. The future, he said, was bright. Together, Iranians would build a better country, free of tyranny. “Imagine this new Iran,” he said. “A free and democratic Iran, living at peace with our neighbors, an engine of growth and opportunity.”

If Pahlavi sounds a little like a presidential contender giving a campaign speech, that is because, in a sense, he is: Reza Pahlavi is running to be Iran’s next leader. The erstwhile crown prince has been criticizing the country’s Islamist autocracy since he went into exile almost five decades ago. But in recent years, he has become increasingly vocal — and increasingly insistent that he should lead any pivot. “I am stepping forward to lead this national transition,” Pahlavi said. “I have a clear plan.”

It is easy to see why Pahlavi has chosen this week to boldly promote his candidacy. Over the last 12 days, Israel bombed Iranian military, energy and political facilities in the biggest attack on the country since the 1980s. On Saturday, the United States joined in, striking three Iranian nuclear sites. According to U.S. President Donald Trump, the various parties have now agreed to a ceasefire. But tensions remain high, and it is unclear whether there will be a lasting peace. Trump, for example, has signaled that he is open to taking down the entire regime. If “the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!” he wrote in a Sunday social media post. Left unclear was how Trump would want that regime change to occur — by further American military involvement or by an organic uprising of disaffected Iranians.

Over the course of his time abroad, Pahlavi has built up a sizable following in Iran’s diaspora. These backers believe that, should the regime fall, the former crown prince is perfectly positioned to take charge.

Read more here: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine ... -00417941

The linked article is somewhat longer than the typical article for which I provide links.

caltrek’s comment: As the article points out it should be noted that Pahlavi’s father was a highly authoritarian ruler that “locked up opponents and banned various political parties…(and) had a formidable secret police.”

His son is not as authoritarian and not as hated as his dad it's worth noting. That being said his power should be limited by a parliament, for obvious reasons.

[caltrek]

The Wretched History of Regime
By Melvin Goodman
June 25, 2025

Introduction:

(Counterpunch) Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is planning to come to Washington in the next week or so, and probably will make his case for regime change in Iran. Having convinced Donald Trump of the need to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, Netanyahu will presumably turn to his next goal, which is to end the regime of the Ayatollah and destroy the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the military organization dedicated to regime control and survival.

Trump has muddied the waters on this issue. Although he has said he opposes regime change, he raised the possibility two days after the successful military attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities. This contradicted the statements of Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who said the United States was not trying to topple the regime in Tehran.

The air attacks of the Israeli Defense Forces suggested that their bombardment campaign was against Tehran’s internal political power as well as Iran’s nuclear and external military power. There were rumors that Netanyahu was on the verge of targeting the Ayatollah Khamenei, but was talked back by Donald Trump. Netanyahu must be concerned that the Trump administration is still considering the resumption of diplomatic talks with Iran, and he will arrive in Washington to make the case for a continued military campaign. When asked if he was targeting Khamenei himself, Netanyahu replied that “We are doing what we need to do.”

Meanwhile, the regime change efforts of the United States have had a long and unsuccessful history. Seventy years ago, the CIA and Britain’s MI-6 colluded to overthrow the democratically elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh. This opened the door to decades of authoritarian rule under the Pahlavi monarchy and the Islamic Republic. Currently, the eldest son of the late Shah, Reza Pahlavi, has emerged as the most visible opposition leader, although there is no indication that he has any influence in Tehran or any popular support in the country. The strategic failure of the coup in 1953 should have demonstrated that regime change, externally engineered, is likely to lead to even more repressive government and not to democratic alternatives.

Read more here: https://www.counterpunch.org/2025/06/3 ... -regime/


caltrek’s comment: Ideally, any regime change should result in a democracy with the checks and balances of the type that Firestar contemplates. Personally, I doubt that Netanyahu and Trump would pursue the kind of policy that would make that happen. There is also the problem of how valued is democracy inside of Iran. Historically, the division has been between the monarchists and the theocrats. Those favoring democratic rule have only briefly been visible during times of great upheaval and have only witnessed the transition from one (monarchy) to the other (theocracy). It is doubtful they would be strong enough carry forth with a truly democrat regime and instead would be crushed between the two opposing forces. Even if Reza Pahlavi had democratic instincts, the pressure on him to resort to authoritarian tactics would be enormous, at least IMHO.

[firestar464]

Yeah after I finally got time to read the Politico article and see how he chills with Israel, my opinion of him has kind of soured.

[firestar464]

After crafting quiet Florida life, Shah of Iran’s alleged ‘chief torturer’ must now face trial

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... an-lawsuit

[caltrek]

Iran Signs a New Agreement with the IAEA. Then Tries to Sell It at Home
By François Diaz-Maurin
September 16 , 2025

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) The National Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament held an emergency session on Saturday to review the agreement signed last week with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The session sought to clarify the practical modalities for the implementation of safeguards in Iran included in the agreement. It was also meant to stop the uproar among Iranian lawmakers over the new agreement.

On September 9, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi signed an agreement in Cairo, Egypt, aimed at restarting nuclear inspections in Iran under its NPT safeguards agreement with the agency. In July, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a law adopted by the Iranian parliament halting cooperation with the IAEA after the United States and Israel attacked its nuclear sites. Tehran also threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Diplomatic efforts have accelerated in recent weeks, with IAEA representatives traveling to Iran in August and several rounds of technical discussions being held in Vienna in September. Before the agreement, Grossi said that there was “still time, but not much,” hinting at sanctions, the possibility of further attacks, and Iran’s possible withdrawal from the NPT.

On August 28, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—a group known as the E3—declared they would reimpose UN “snapback” sanctions against Iran if inspections did not resume within 30 days. And the United States and Israel have threatened to conduct more attacks if Iran continues to enrich uranium or takes steps toward weaponization. Meanwhile, the Iranian parliament was set to vote on the withdrawal of the NPT on September 8. (The vote was postponed at Araghchi’s request to give more time to reach an agreement with the IAEA.)

Read more here: https://thebulletin.org/2025/09/iran-s ... -heading

[caltrek]

More Cities Run Dry as Iran’s Water Crisis Deepens
By Amir Daftari
November 10, 2025

Introduction:

(Newsweek) Water reserves in Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city and one of its most important religious centers, have fallen below 3 percent of capacity, putting the city’s 4 million residents on the brink of a major water emergency.

The crisis in Mashhad is just one sign of a nationwide catastrophe, as Iran faces up to the consequences of worsening droughts, record-low rainfall and decades of mismanaged water resources. Policies that favored building new dams and drilling deep wells over maintaining infrastructure and promoting conservation have left the country facing severe water shortages.

Why It Matters

Mashhad, home to the Imam Reza shrine that attracts millions of pilgrims, is among several Iranian cities facing shrinking reservoirs and depleted aquifers. Tehran, the capital, has also struggled with falling water levels and periodic rationing, while major lakes such as Lake Urmia in the northwest have largely dried up after decades of mismanagement and reduced inflow. The widespread shortages reflect how declining rainfall and poor infrastructure planning have strained both urban supply and agriculture.

Without urgent conservation and reform, large population centers could face lasting shortages. As a major food producer for the region, Iran’s worsening crisis threatens to reduce agricultural output and undermine food security in neighboring countries, while growing pressure on shared river basins risks heightening regional tensions.

What to Know

On Sunday, Hossein Esmaeilian, managing director of the Mashhad Water and Wastewater Company, told state media that Mashhad’s water reserves have dropped to below 3 percent. He said while consumption has fallen slightly during colder months, “the current situation shows that consumption management is no longer just a recommendation, but a necessity.”

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/m ... e4b&ei=65

Tehran May be Evacuated Due to Drought

(Independent) Residents of Tehran may be forced to evacuate in response to an unprecedented drought in Iran, after record low levels of rainfall left reservoirs empty.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has told Iranian citizens that if rainfall remains scarce, they may be forced to ration water.

The forecast looks bleak across the country, with no rainfall expected over the next 10 days.

Iran’s minister of energy, Abbas Ali Abadi, has warned that authorities may soon be forced to cut off the water supply. He said water flow may be “decreased to zero” on some nights, while households and business could be penalised for consuming too much water, the BBC reported.

Mr Pezeshkian’s statement sparked criticism from Iranian newspapers and on social media. The former mayor of Tehran, Gholamhossein Karbaschi, said that “evacuating Tehran makes no sense at all” and called the idea a “joke”.

Read more here: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/wor ... 1994.html

[wjfox]

Iran’s president calls relocating capital 'unavoidable' amid overcrowding and water shortages

NOVEMBER 21, 2025 07:17

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that relocating Iran’s capital from Tehran has become unavoidable, citing overcrowding and limited water resources, Iran International reported on Thursday.

Speaking at a meeting in Qazvin, Pezeshkian said Tehran can no longer support further construction or population growth.

He noted that transferring water from the Persian Gulf would be extremely costly, explaining that although Iran lacked the funds when the relocation plan was first proposed, the move is now considered essential.

The government has identified the underdeveloped Makran region in southeastern Iran as a possible new capital. No timeline for the move has been announced.

As of last week, Tehran’s Amir Kabir Dam sat at just 8% capacity, and the capital’s reservoirs are half-empty. Water-pressure reductions have begun across the city, with officials quietly warning that the taps may soon run dry altogether.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran- ... cle-874696

[firestar464]

Iran arrests Nobel Peace laureate Narges Mohammadi, family says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ir ... r-AA1SeB58

[caltrek]

How Iranian Filmmakers Resist Censorship, Travel Bans, and Arrests
By Matt Minton
December 17, 2025

Introduction:

(The Progressive) With a recent wave of Iranian films capturing the world’s attention, including this year’s Cannes Palme d’Or winner, It Was Just an Accident, and last year’s Oscar nominee, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Jafar Panahi and Mohammad Rasoulof are at the forefront of Iranian filmmakers using art as a tool to resist oppression. Despite imprisonment, travel bans, and continued censorship by the Iranian government, they’ve continued to make films—often underground and in secret.

The Iranian government prevents Iranian filmmakers from speaking out about the country’s authoritarian regime and showcasing romantic love through physical gestures that it considers against Islamic tradition. Female actors are also expected to wear hijabs. Due to these strict rules that reinforce gender roles, more and more Iranian filmmakers are going the independent route, which doesn’t come without risk: Iranian filmmakers who shoot films without proper permits from Iran’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance face threats of imprisonment, as well as having their passports confiscated and their homes raided.

When these filmmakers choose not to cave to government demands in order to receive funding and permit allocations, they have to find creative solutions to make films. When filming The Seed of the Sacred Fig, for example, Rasoulof was never physically on set in Iran and communicated to the actors strictly through an audio monitor or walkie-talkie. To protect the small cast, everyone was given a fake script to present in case authorities discovered their filming. When editing It Was Just An Accident, Amir Etminan had to make sure he wasn’t connected to the Internet and wasn’t allowed to read the full script for security purposes.

Though Panahi (who has been arrested by Iranian authorities four times, and was recently sentenced to one year in prison for “propaganda activities”) and Rasoulof (who fled Iran last year after being sentenced to eight years in prison for “collusion against national security”) are the most notable working Iranian dissident filmmakers, films from emerging Iranian directors have debuted at thousands of worldwide film festivals in the years since the Iranian Revolution in 1979.

Read more here: https://progressive.org/latest/how-ira ... 0251217/

[caltrek]

Iran and the Price of Sovereignty: What It Takes Not to Be a Client State
By Behrooz Ghamari-Tabrizi
December 25, 2025

Introduction:

(Counterpunch) On June 12, 2025, for the first time after more than twenty years, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors passed a resolution declaring that Tehran was breaching its non-proliferation obligations. The day after, on June 13, Israeli warplanes began a campaign of bombing Tehran and other major Iranian cities. With the help of their proxies inside the country, they assassinated top military commanders, killed leading nuclear scientists at their residence along with their families, bombed the cabinet meeting in Tehran, wounding the President, indiscriminately shelled urban residential areas, and even targeted Evin prison where most political prisoners are incarcerated. The U.S. offered intelligence, refueled their jetfighters in mid-air, and finally entered the war directly by bombing the Iranian nuclear enrichment sites with bunker buster weapons.

This unprovoked Israeli attack happened in the midst of seemingly constructive negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Rome and Muscat. The Friday the 13th attack happened just before the two countries were to meet on Sunday the 15th to finalize a framework for further agreements on the Iranian enrichment program. In all close to 1000 people were killed in the Israeli attacks, thousands injured, and hundreds of families lost their homes.

There is no solid evidence whether the IAEA board coordinated the release of their report with the Israelis. But the suspicious choreography of the timing of the report’s release with the Israeli attacks affords credibility to the Islamic Republic’s claims that some of the IAEA inspectors spied for Israel. In its report, the IAEA excavated questions from twenty years earlier about highly enriched particles found in three Iranian sites. The case for the Iranian noncompliance is primarily based on the Agency’s conclusion “that these undeclared locations were part of an undeclared, structured programme carried out by Iran until the early 2000s, and that some of these activities used undeclared nuclear material” (my emphasis). Obfuscated in the report was the fact that the IAES has found no evidence of any weaponization program or military component in the Iranian nuclear activities.

Read more here: https://www.counterpunch.org/2025/12/2 ... t-state/

[firestar464]

Protests erupt in Iran over currency’s plunge to record low

https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders ... ee10638f03

[firestar464]

Iran security forces use tear gas on protesters in Tehran bazaar as toll rises

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacifi ... toll-rises