Global Trade & Retail Crisis Watch

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Record U.S. Farm Trade Deficit
By Lauren Cross
August 5, 2025

Extract:

(Investigate Midwest) Since 1976, farm exports reliably outpaced imports, helping support rural economies and positioning the U.S. as a global ag powerhouse.

That’s no longer the case.

While the most recent monthly data extends only through May, the U.S. is on track for the largest agricultural trade deficit in recorded history. From January through May 2025, the U.S. imported $96.75 billion in agricultural goods while exporting just $72.25 billion — a $24.5 billion gap that exceeds the full-year shortfall recorded in 2023.

The USDA projects a $49.5 billion agricultural trade deficit for all of fiscal year 2025. That projection marks a sharp break from past patterns: in 1996, the U.S. posted a $31.85 billion farm trade surplus, according to historical USDA data. That’s a nearly $80 billion swing in the nation’s farm trade balance over the past three decades.

The tipping point was in 2022, when imports started rising faster than exports. By 2023, the U.S. was running consistent monthly ag trade deficits – and this trend only deepened in 2024 and 2025.

Read more here: https://investigatemidwest.org/2025/08 ... f-powers

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Bessent: US would have to give back half of tariffs if it loses at Supreme Court

Source: The Hill

09/07/25 6:08 PM ET

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States would have to refund half of the tariffs if has collected if it loses its case on President Trump’s trade agenda at the Supreme Court.

Bessent said he feels “confident” the Trump administration will win the fight to rescue President Trump’s tariffs, but acknowledged it will be costly if there is a loss in the conservative-leaning High Court.

During an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Bessent was asked by host Kristen Welker whether the administration was prepared to offer rebates on the tariffs if the Supreme Court ruled against them. “I am confident that we will win at the Supreme Court,” he said.

Pushed as to whether the administration would “be prepared” to offer rebates, Bessent said the U.S. “would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs,” adding that it “would be terrible for the Treasury.” “There’s no ‘be prepared,'” he said. “If the court says it, we’d have to do it.”

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... eme-court/

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‘I’ve Never Seen Anything Like It’: Trump Policies Leave U.S. Farmers in Dire Straits
By Brett Wilkins
September 16, 2025

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) As anticipated, US President Donald Trump’s economic and immigration policies are harming American farmers’ ability to earn a living—and testing the loyalty of one of the president’s staunchest bases of support, according to reports published this week.

After Trump slapped 30% tariffs on Chinese imports in May, Beijing retaliated with measures including stopping all purchases of US soybeans. Before the trade war, a quarter of the soybeans—the nation’s number one export crop—produced in the United States were exported to China. Trump’s tariffs mean American soybean growers can’t compete with countries like Brazil, the world’s leading producer and exporter of the staple crop and itself the target of a 50% US tariff.

“We depend on the Chinese market. The reason we depend so much on this market is China consumes 61% of soybeans produced worldwide,” Kentucky farmer Caleb Ragland, who is president of the American Soybean Association, told News Nation on Monday. “Right now, we have zero sold for this crop that’s starting to be harvested right now.”

Ragland continued:

• It’s a five-alarm fire for our industry that 25% of our total sales is currently missing. And right now we are not competitive with Brazil due to the retaliatory tariffs that are in place. Our prices are about 20% higher, and that means that the Chinese are going elsewhere because they can find a better value.

• And the American soybean farmers and their families are suffering. They are 500,000 of us that produce soybeans, and we desperately need markets, and we need opportunity and a leveled playing field.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/farm ... policies

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Trump announces 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals unless drug makers are building U.S. factories

Source: MarketWatch

Published: Sept. 25, 2025 at 7:54 p.m. ET

President Donald Trump announced a raft of new tariffs late Thursday, including a 100% levy on imported pharmaceuticals unless their manufacturers are actively building factories in the U.S.

In a series of social-media posts, Trump also announced new 50% tariffs on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, 30% tariffs on upholstered furniture and 25% levies on heavy trucks, all effective Oct. 1.

Trump said those tariffs are to protect American businesses from overseas manufacturers “flooding” the market. “It is a vary unfair practice, but we must protect, for National Security and other reasons, our Manufacturing process,” Trump said in a post.

The tariffs on branded or patented pharmaceuticals will also take effect Oct. 1, Trump said.

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump ... s-a233958a

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Tariff costs to companies this year to hit $1.2 trillion, with consumers taking most of the hit, S&P says

PUBLISHED THU, OCT 16 2025 1:51 PM EDT * UPDATED 4 HOURS AGO

Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528

KEY POINTS

* President Donald Trump’s tariffs will cost global businesses upward of $1.2 trillion in 2025, with most of the cost being passed onto consumers, according to a new analysis from S&P Global.
* The firm says that just one-third will be borne by companies, with the rest falling on the shoulders of consumers, under conservative estimates.
* “While Americans may face a transition period from tariffs upending a broken status quo that has put America Last, the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by foreign exporters,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs will cost global businesses upward of $1.2 trillion in 2025, with most of the cost being passed onto consumers, according to a new analysis from S&P Global.

In a white paper released Thursday, the firm said its estimate of additional expenses for companies is probably conservative. The price tag comes from information provided by some 15,000 sell-side analysts across 9,000 companies who contribute to S&P and its proprietary research indexes.

“The sources of this trillion-dollar squeeze are broad. Tariffs and trade barriers act as taxes on supply chains and divert cash to governments; logistics delays and freight costs compound the effect,” author Daniel Sandberg said in the report. “Collectively, these forces represent a systemic transfer of wealth from corporate profits to workers, suppliers, governments, and infrastructure investors.”

Trump in April slapped 10% tariffs on all goods entering the U.S. and listed individual “reciprocal” tariffs for dozens of other countries. Since then, the White House has entered a series of negotiations and agreements while also adding duties on a variety of individual items such as kitchen cabinets, autos and timber.

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Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/16/tariff- ... -says.html

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Trump signs order expanding auto tariff relief

Source: The Hill

10/17/25 10:59 PM ET

President Trump signed a Friday proclamation intended to offset the impact of auto tariffs with an expansion of credits for eligible car manufacturers.

Automakers who import car parts to the U.S. will receive 3.75 percent offset from the vehicle’s listed retail price until 2030 under the Friday order. Originally, the program was set to expire in 2027.

The White House said the percentage reflects the expected tax when a 25 percent tariff is applied to 15 percent of the value of a U.S.-assembled automobile. The Friday executive order also set a 10 percent tariff on imports of buses and implemented new 25 percent tariffs on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks starting on Nov. 1.

The move from the White House comes after carmakers reported around a billion dollars in projected losses from the Trump administration’s new trade policies earlier this year. Lobbying groups have pushed for relief amid the changes.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... f-credits/

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Trump signs order to impose 25% tariffs on certain trucks, and 10% on buses as of Nov. 1

Source: USA Today

Updated Oct. 17, 2025, 7:57 p.m. ET

President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Oct. 17 imposing 25% tariffs on imported medium-and heavy-duty trucks as well as 10% tariffs on imported buses starting Nov. 1, in a move he has for months said would protect domestic manufacturers.

The program has been designed to incentivize automakers to build in the U.S. by offering rebates on certain auto parts that have to be imported while creating well paying jobs for Americans, a senior administration official told reporters in a call.

Trump, who had initially set the tariffs deadline in September for Oct.1, later moved it by a month.

Trump said the new heavy-duty truck tariffs were to protect manufacturers from "unfair outside competition" and said the move would benefit many companies.

Read more: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 754071007/

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Bessent, Chinese vice premier to meet to try to defuse U.S. tariff hike

Source: NBC News/Reuters

Oct. 18, 2025, 4:00 AM EDT

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday he expects to meet next week with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia to try to forestall an escalation of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that President Donald Trump said was unsustainable.

Bessent made the announcement during a White House cabinet meeting and later confirmed plans for a meeting after a call with He on Friday evening. Bessent said on X the two officials "engaged in frank and detailed discussions regarding trade between the United States and China." "We will meet in-person next week to continue our discussions," Bessent wrote.

China state news agency Xinhua reported that He and Bessent had "candid, in-depth, and constructive discussions on major issues in bilateral economic and trade relations" in a video call, and agreed to a new round of trade talks as soon as possible.

The two officials previously met in four European cities over six months to hammer out a tariff truce that brought duties down from triple-digit levels for each country. That agreement expires on November 10.

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/china/bes ... rcna238314

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More on that by CryptoNews:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-pu ... 02498.html

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31 former federal judges urge SCOTUS to reject Trump's claims over tariff authority, warning that his arguments would give presidents tyrannical powers https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/ ... 0Brief.pdf

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