Measured pre-substitution—assuming there are no shifts in the import shares of different countries—the 2025 tariffs to date (including the ones effective August 7) are the equivalent of a 15.9 percentage point increase in the US average effective tariff rate. That calculation assumes that, for example, the share of imports from China remains at 14%, where it was in 2024. This is the right way to think about the tariffs from the perspective of consumer welfare, since it reflects the full cost faced by consumers before they start making difficult spending choices. This increase would bring the overall US average effective tariff rate to 18.3%, the highest since 1934.
EJ Antoni, nominated by President Donald Trump Monday to become the next commissioner for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggested that the agency should suspend its monthly jobs report, claiming it is unreliable and frequently overstated.
Antoni, in an interview with Fox Business News that took place before his nomination and was published Tuesday, said the BLS should instead publish quarterly data after it had been revised until BLS can ensure its monthly jobs data is more accurate.
“Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data,” he told Fox Business. “Major decision-makers from Wall Street to D.C. rely on these numbers, and a lack of confidence in the data has far-reaching consequences.”
Trump fired former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer after the July jobs report showed weak growth that month and included revisions for May and June that were historically large. Trump claimed, without evidence, the revisions constituted a “scam” and a vendetta against his presidency.
Key Inflation Indicator Comes in ‘Scorching Hot’ Just as Trump Tariffs Hit By Brad Reed
August 14, 2025
Introduction:
(Common Dreams) A leading inflation indicator surged much more than expected last month, just as the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs started to weigh on American businesses and consumers.
New Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers released on Thursday showed that wholesale prices rose by 0.9% over the last month and by 3.3% over the last year. These numbers were significantly higher than economists' consensus estimates of a 0.2% monthly rise and a 2.5% yearly rise in producer prices.
PPI is a leading indicator of future readings of the Consumer Price Index, the most widely cited gauge of inflation, as increases in wholesalers' prices almost inevitably get passed on to consumers. Economists have been predicting for months that Trump's tariffs on imported goods, which at the moment are higher than at any point in nearly 100 years, would lead to a spike in inflation.
Reacting to the higher-than-expected PPI number, some economic experts pinned the blame directly on the president.
"So much for foreigners paying tariffs," commented Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax consulting firm RSM US, on X. "If they did, PPI would be falling. Wholesale prices up 3.3% from a year ago and 3.7% in the core. The temperature is definitely rising in the core. This implies a hot PCE reading lies ahead."
Florida is now the 2nd most financially distressed state in the US -- topped only by Texas, Google helps reveal
With prices rising on everything from groceries to rent amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty, many Americans are struggling to pay the bills.
They’re even turning to credit to pay for essentials. A recent LendingTree survey found that one-quarter (25%) of buy-now-pay-later users have used these loans to buy groceries.
But some states are struggling more than others. Florida is now one of the most financially stressed states in the country, second only to another Southern state, according to a new report by WalletHub, which defines financial distress as having credit in forbearance or deferring payments due to financial difficulty.
Texas is the most financially distressed state in the country, followed by Florida, Louisiana, Nevada and South Carolina. The states that are best off? That honor goes to Hawaii, followed by Vermont, Alaska, Oregon and New Mexico.
Mass Layoffs at John Deere Follow Depressed Sales Caused by Trump Tariffs By Brad Reed
August 19, 2025
Introduction:
(Common Dreams) US President Donald Trump has pitched his tariffs on foreign goods as a way to bring more manufacturing jobs back into the United States.
However, it now appears as though the tariffs are hurting the manufacturing jobs that are already here.
As reported by Des Moines Register, iconic American machinery company John Deere announced on Monday that it is laying off 71 workers in Waterloo, Iowa, as well as 115 people in East Moline, Illinois, and 52 workers in Moline, Illinois. The paper noted that John Deere has laid off more than 2,000 employees since April 2024.
In its announcement of the layoffs, the company said that "the struggling [agriculture] economy continues to impact orders" for its equipment.
"This is a challenging time for many farmers, growers, and producers, and directly impacts our business in the near term," the company emphasized.
Why Aren’t Markets Freaking Out? By Paul Krugman
August 28, 2025
Introduction:
(Paul Krugman via Substack) For those of us who follow economic policy in general and the Federal Reserve in particular, the past week has been shocking and terrifying. Donald Trump’s ongoing attempts to bully the Fed into large interest rate cuts have escalated into an attempt to fire Lisa Cook, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, over unsubstantiated claims that she committed financial fraud while still a college professor. Indeed, Trump claims that he has already fired her, although he has no legal right to do so.
Whatever happens, Trump’s campaign to take over monetary policy has shifted from a public pressure to personal intimidation of Fed officials: the attack on Cook signals that Trump and his people will try to ruin the life of anyone who stands in his way. There is now a substantial chance that the Fed’s independence, its ability to manage the nation’s monetary policy on an objective, technocratic basis rather than as an instrument of the president’s political interests and personal whims, will soon be gone.
So why aren’t markets freaking out? Nations in which central banks lose their independence sooner or later suffer high inflation, especially when they are taken over by autocrats who buy into crackpot economic doctrines.
Additional Extract:
So if the conventional wisdom is that economic conditions will remain more or less normal despite highly abnormal policy, markets will remain calm until the illusion of normality becomes unsustainable. At that point market prices may “change violently.” The current technical term for this phenomenon is a “Wile E. Coyote moment” — the moment when the cartoon character, having run several steps off the edge of a cliff, looks down and realizes that there’s nothing supporting him. Only then, according to the laws of cartoon physics, does he fall.
U.S. economy expanded 3.3% in Q2, with growth even stronger than initially thought
The U.S. economy grew at an even faster than thought pace in the second quarter as consumers and businesses held up against tariff volatility.
Gross domestic product rose at a 3.3% annualized pace in the April-through-June period, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in its second estimate for the most encompassing measure of economic activity. The reading was better than an initial 3.0% estimate as well as the 3.1% Dow Jones consensus forecast.
Consumer spending helped push the number higher, rising by 1.6% compared to an initial 1.4% estimate.
Payrolls rose 22,000 in August, less than expected in further sign of hiring slowdown
Source: CNBC
Published Fri, Sep 5 2025 8:31 AM EDT Updated 4 Min Ago
Job creation sputtered in August, adding to recent signs of labor market weakening and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track for a widely anticipated interest rate cut later this month.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 for the month, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payrolls to rise by 75,000.
The report showed a marked slowdown from the July increase of 79,000, which was revised up by 6,000. Revisions also showed a net loss of 13,000 in June after the prior estimate was lowered by 27,000.
The report was the first since President Donald Trump fired former BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer following the release of the July jobs report a month ago. The move came after the report showed not just a weak level of job creation but also dramatic reductions in previous months’ totals.
Trump Calls On All NATO Countries To Stop Buying Russian Oil, Threatens 50% To 100% Tariffs On China
Source: Huff Post/AP
Sep 13, 2025, 08:30 AM EDT
BASKING RIDGE, N.J. (AP) — President Donald Trump said Saturday he believes the Russia-Ukraine war would end if all NATO countries stopped buying oil from Russia and placed tariffs on China of 50% to 100% for its purchases of Russian petroleum.
Trump posted on his social media site that NATO’S commitment to winning the war “has been far less than 100%” and the purchase of Russian oil by some members of the alliance is “shocking.” As if speaking to them, he said, “It greatly weakens your negotiating position, and bargaining power, over Russia.”
NATO member Turkey has been the third largest buyer of Russian oil, after China and India, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Other members of the 32-state alliance involved in purchasing Russian oil include Hungary and Slovakia.
The letter comes at a tense moment in the conflict after the recent flight of multiple Russian drones into Poland, an escalatory move by Russia as it was entering the airspace of NATO ally. Poland shot down the drones. It also comes as the Congress is trying to get him behind a bill toughening sanctions.
