How optimistic are you about the near-term future? [2021 - 2055]

[bretbernhoft]

Out of ten, I am an eight.

[wjfox]

For the time period you've specified? Not at all optimistic. I think the next few decades could be hell.

Beyond that, however, our technological capabilities will have become so exponentially greater, we have the potential to reach an inflection point that could transform our world and usher in a whole new era for humanity. A.K.A. the Singularity. Many long-standing problems, such as pollution, disease, hunger, etc. could rapidly melt away.

It's passing through that "make or break" point – some time around the middle of this century – that so troubles me.

So I voted 4 out of 10. Our current path is clearly unsustainable, and seems doomed to failure/collapse. The problem isn't technological – we're an intelligent species and could develop the solutions we need, if we put our minds to it. The problem is more cultural and political. Too many stupid, ignorant people in the population, and too many sociopathic politicians and business leaders who prioritise short-term greed above all else. I doubt we'll go extinct anytime soon, but we seem due for a "correction" of some sort.

[Ozzie guy]

I think my outlook is negative, I often remind myself of Kurzweils HAGI before 2030 prediction but I think I do so to try and be optimistic rather than actually viewing it as likely. My outlook for my own life is negative but I am trying to turn it around.

[funkervogt]

The question is vague. What exactly are we "optimistic" about?

I choose "8," because on balance, I think things will get much better than they are now, except for some niche aspects of life, which will get worse.

Specifically, by 2055, I think overpopulation and overcrowding will be worse, some parts of the world will have noticeably worse climates due to global warming, and sociocultural problems will worsen.

[weatheriscool]

As an American I choose a very negative view. This country is likely to go through some extremely ugly times within the next 3-4 decades at the rate things are going.

We're likely seeing our decline and fall as a world power as we speak and probably will be at the mercy of the chinese by the later parts of this period. Eastern Asia will probably do most of the advances of science and tech as we lose our leadership in these fields... Currently, we're losing our ability to speak our minds within a rational way or fact based manner or to even find agreement within a political sense that is very harmful to our system of government. Violence and collapse is very likely.

[funkervogt]

Violence and collapse is very likely.

I'm also American, and I don't think a collapse of the country is likely by 2055. However, I think there's a better-than-even chance of significant but low-level civil violence over political and cultural differences.

[Nanotechandmorefuture]

Currently, we're losing our ability to speak our minds within a rational way or fact based manner or to even find agreement within a political sense that is very harmful to our system of government.

Can confirm its bad in the USA in this regard. Its also why I like this forum because some of the talk even outside of politics just would not fly.

[Redspector]

Out of ten, I am an eight.

Pessimistic. I honestly expect the global south and especially south asia and the middle east to almost completely collapse from climate change. South Asia doesn't have nearly enough groundwater to supply her population and the himalayas are drying up. The middle east is the same. Desalination might take care of the water issue a little bit but you need enormous capital to build desalination and it comes with massive energy costs. Maybe desalination by 2050 will be cheap enough but would it be possible to drive those pipes hundreds of miles inland to Delhi or Tehran or Baghdad? It would need to be utilized to supply water to hundreds of millions. These countries in the global south aren't doing enough to actually be prepared for a 2-3 degrees celsius temperature increase. The global north (basically the first world and russia) will be better off but it will still be hell. The southwest will run out of water but at least the government has the bankroll to fund desalination and water trucks.

Corporations use a obscene amount of water in production for consumerism and maybe a third of what they produce is wasted and never used. Cows and other big animals use so much water and provide barely any calories per liter. Golf courses are a waste and so are lawns. The biggest issue, imo, will be water shortages. We can live in 120F environments but we can't live without water.

I suspect many countries in Europe will steadily become hardline nationalist governments that will impose military rule or create police states for deporting excessive amounts of illegals that will flee the global south. You can already see it from the elections in Europe. Mussolini's granddaughter just won a political seat in rome with a far right corporatist party. The two biggest parties in France are far right and right wing. They are only so popular because people fear immigration and because capitalism is in decay. Jobs are being lost, wages aren't keeping up with productivity, healthcare is becoming worse in countries with nationalized healthcare, privatization is increasing, people can't afford homes like they used too etc. Its a worldwide phenomenon. Even India saw 100 million people descend into poverty in 2020 and its unlikely they will rebound back into minor prosperity as fast as they went into poverty.

The future is looking bleak short term. Past 2055 and probably by the 22nd century, the world will be much better because of a mutual need to cooperate to fix climate change and distribute resources. Maybe by the 23rd century will humanity finally prosper.

[funkervogt]

Redspector, do you know about "toilet to tap" systems? Countries in the Global South could put them to use at affordable cost now, using existing technology.

[Redspector]

Redspector, do you know about "toilet to tap" systems? Countries in the Global South could put them to use at affordable cost now, using existing technology.

Hmm. These have existed for years and have seen barely any growth in usage. Its not like you see this in India or Iran where need is greatest for new water. Copyright laws also prevent good technologies from being accesible to others.

Governments that are dictatorship of the bougeoise dont care about their citizens wellbeing anyways. America doesnt care about americans. If they dif they would have a nationalized healthcare system rather than spending a average of 7k a year for insurance. Most global south countries will continue to hold capital in elite hands and not waste the effort to help their citizens beyond meeger token help.

This whole idea that because technology exists that humanity will use it ignores so many other factors.

[Redspector]

Redspector, do you know about "toilet to tap" systems? Countries in the Global South could put them to use at affordable cost now, using existing technology.

Hmm. These have existed for years and have seen barely any growth in usage. Its not like you see this in India or Iran where need is greatest for new water. Copyright laws also prevent good technologies from being accesible to others.

Governments that are dictatorship of the bougeoise dont care about their citizens wellbeing anyways. America doesnt care about americans. If they dif they would have a nationalized healthcare system rather than spending a average of 7k a year for insurance. Most global south countries will continue to hold capital in elite hands and not waste the effort to help their citizens beyond meeger token help.

This whole idea that because technology exists that humanity will use it ignores so many other factors.

Oh yeah, polio wasnt eradicated until decades after a cure was found. Same with smallpox. We can treat hunger but millions starve. We can cure many diseases but they still ravage humanity.

Some other examples of technologies existing not equalling proper utilization

[Yuli Ban]

It's not looking good for us, especially as synthetic media advances and our trust in our eyes erodes further into a singularity of nonsense. We're years away from being able to choose our objective reality.

[erowind]

It's not looking good for us, especially as synthetic media advances and our trust in our eyes erodes further into a singularity of nonsense. We're years away from being able to choose our objective reality.

All the more reason to keep this forum going as little as I have posted. I intend to be here into the foreseeable future and hope many longterm members keep it going too. It's rare to find anyone that is even aware of the synthetic media problem we are facing. (Not that synthetic media is inherently bad, but you know how it is/will be used right now, disinformation and stuff.)

(The following is my general post.)

My outlook for the timeframe presented is a solid 5. I think we could be in a different socioeconomic system in many countries by the 2050s so I'm optimistic in that regard. I'll go out and say it. Mixed economics is a dead end, capitalism is inherently an extractive economic system and regardless of whatever anyone's personal ethics are the physics of what this economic system has done to the biosphere and humanities natural resources stock is undeniable.

Capitalism will be moved on from in the same way that feudalism was. I don't expect the world to all be socialist by the 2050s and I do expect that socialism to take a different form than it has in the past given technological advances and cultural changes. If war doesn't hit us too hard by the middle of the century due to resource conflicts and the falling rate of profit I'd wager that future socialisms will be predominately democratic in nature (especially in former western countries.) Perhaps, if some here are lucky enough (anti-aging notwithstanding) we may yet live to see those utopian digital democracies that the first netziens spoke of in the 90s before eternal september struck.

I am optimistic on anti-aging research though and plan to be around to see this species through the next few centuries. There is a possibility that those reading these words today may live to look back on this century and their own lives during it as a tumultuous adolescence.

[waitingforthe2030s]

It's not looking good for us, especially as synthetic media advances and our trust in our eyes erodes further into a singularity of nonsense. We're years away from being able to choose our objective reality.

I don't doubt it, but I think we're talking decades and not years.

[Jakob]

1/10, we are clearly on our way to the implementation of a social credit score in the western world plus the looming threat of the Great Reset. 2 years ago, I would have said 7/10 but things have changed. Or perhaps the plans of the evil elites have just been made more visible. This is incidentally why I've largely abandoned this forum and futurism at large, I no longer want to think about the future.

[R8Z]

1/10, we are clearly on our way to the implementation of a social credit score in the western world plus the looming threat of the Great Reset. 2 years ago, I would have said 7/10 but things have changed. Or perhaps the plans of the evil elites have just been made more visible. This is incidentally why I've largely abandoned this forum and futurism at large, I no longer want to think about the future.

Even though I share your worries, I think you greatly overestimate the power Klaus & friends have over individual nations. I voted a 5. My reasoning is that some nations will thrive, some will reverse a bit (mostly in freedoms, as the trend has been going on full power as you correctly pointed out), but overall we will gain a lot with the technology advances.

The technology gains will overcome any attempts to become god (e.g. attempt an "all in control" sorta thing) from politicians, their faithful followers and the actual string pullers that all know aren't the actual government.

My personal suggestion to you, Jakob, would be to look at technology at your own personal scale. What could you use or do to isolate yourself from these daemons and still take advantage of modern society somehow? Protip: it ain't being a wage worker in a western nation, that's for sure. Whoever is one of these is certainly doomed, sorry about that.

[Lurking]

1/10 - Decline or even (total?) collapse of contemporary society due to climate change.
Assuming it gets that bad of course

[Redspector]

1/10, we are clearly on our way to the implementation of a social credit score in the western world plus the looming threat of the Great Reset. 2 years ago, I would have said 7/10 but things have changed. Or perhaps the plans of the evil elites have just been made more visible. This is incidentally why I've largely abandoned this forum and futurism at large, I no longer want to think about the future.

Where is the proof that great reset is this schizo thing that Qanon fans think it is? don't they believe the great reset will result in a worldwide authoritarian LGBTQIA government that allows mass immigration and makes white people second class citizens?

I know i sound like im mocking you but im not. I genuinely want to know what your opinion and what the general right wing opinion is on the "great reset".

[R8Z]

1/10, we are clearly on our way to the implementation of a social credit score in the western world plus the looming threat of the Great Reset. 2 years ago, I would have said 7/10 but things have changed. Or perhaps the plans of the evil elites have just been made more visible. This is incidentally why I've largely abandoned this forum and futurism at large, I no longer want to think about the future.

Where is the proof that great reset is this schizo thing that Qanon fans think it is? don't they believe the great reset will result in a worldwide authoritarian LGBTQIA government that allows mass immigration and makes white people second class citizens?

I know i sound like im mocking you but im not. I genuinely want to know what your opinion and what the general right wing opinion is on the "great reset".

Name calling whoever disagrees with you makes you look silly.

On the topic at hand: forget culture and any of the other distractions. It's all about the (fake) money and control of the masses through it. I don't know if the following quote faithfully represent actual words that came from a Rothschild mouth, but it is indeed a truthful statement that sums-up the last century and the following decades that come.

I care not who controls a nation's political affairs [laws, regulations, etc..], so long as I control her currency [as then I have the control over the nation]

~ M.A. Rothschild

This is nothing new under the sun; most nations are indeed under control by a clique of powerful unnamed people that pull the strings. These people might control several nations, or only their own, but whoever controls the currency printing device of a country, controls the nation's direction. That's why non-centralized digital currencies are so appealing to freedom enthusiasts and also why I believe we have a more bright path due to technology for the future.

[Cyber_Rebel]

Realistically I'd have to say a 5, and that's mainly because you have to consider humanity as a whole. Some countries will be doing better than others naturally and are choosing the correct path socially and politically for a humane society.

Personally, I'd place it as 3. This is one of the worst periods in history for imperial rivalries, literally at a time when we need international cooperation on many fronts to tackle global issues. The people within these countries who prioritize greed and wealth concentration will suffer, due both to their own ignorance and their negligence. Misinformation and stupidity go hand in hand, and while the masses are all at each others throats the pilfer will continue at their expense.

I really do not believe America is as "stable" as some here make it out to be, either. In any case, again, I don't think humanity on the whole is doomed, just the current status quo, which needs to be done away with. Evolve or die, adapt or abdicate, these have always been the constant regardless of the era.