Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Maximus]

The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.

I'm starting to think this is not such a good idea. How are those planes gonna get to Ukraine? Who's gonna fly them? Polish pilots? What if the Russians see this as a NATO attack? Even if Ukrainian pilots fly them from some American base in Germany, Russia could still point to that as an assault that originated in NATO territory. I don't like this.

[Maximus]

...
Russia is clearly a menace to the world – a terrorist state, run by an evil psychopath, and needs to be isolated. An oil ban is the right decisison.

...
"Menace to the world"? The world is a lot bigger than North America and Europe. Much of the world is actually quite dependent on Russian resources - even including mainland Europe. "Terrorist state", "evil psychopath" - those words could also be applied to Western powers for everything our regimes have done over the years. What's the point? It's all just emotion. I prefer a sober analysis and looking at the data. Ukrainians who are actually suffering because of this war can obviously be excused, but Westerners like us who don't have to fear Russian bombs and missiles really shouldn't be behaving the same way. We need cool heads.
..

False equivalency. Putin's aims go far beyond Ukraine, his eyes are firmly set on repeating this war with Moldova, after which the NATO-affiliated Baltic states come next. And not only that, he has openly flaunted his willingness to use nuclear weapons offensively to achieve these goals. The consequences of this, nuclear war, are much more insidious than any war or intervention by a Western country. Russia is actively pushing for WW3 with these goals.

Westerners have kept cool heads. No nuclear power responded in like to Putin's escalation of Russia's nuclear alert level. NATO has refused to enforce a no-fly zone, despite Ukrainian requests, and the US has emphasized many times no American boots will be on the ground in Ukraine.

In any case, I suppose you're arguing sanctions shouldn't be applied. But we can't just let Russia invade its neighbours without consequence. I don't necessarily support an oil ban for EU countries, since they rely on Russian natural gas and oil for now, but as for the rest of us? We can make do with our own resources, or get it from elsewhere. It's a logical step that would hurt the Russian economy.

No, if you live in the UK, US, Canada, Germany, Belgium, and so on, you don't need to fear Russians shelling your cities and schools. But there are many who do fear this now; in Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Finland. Would you have us abandon them to Putin's revanchist aims, to the same fate as Ukraine? We should avoid war with Russia at all costs, but that doesn't mean we have to let them run over Eastern Europe without lifting a finger.

[TrueAnimationFan]

Joe, reviewing your posting history, I see very little variation in what you talk about.

You're certain that the U.S will be completely gone in a few decades. You say you view western regimes as no better than Russia. You think that facist governments will soon emerge in America and Europe. You also think the U.S should simply stop imposing sanctions on Russia despite the fact that they're invading a sovereign nation that basically did nothing to deserve it.

I fail to understand why you can't seem to do anything on this forum other than act like a doomer all day. Futurology is about far more than just war and politics. It's also about having just a little more faith in humanity's future than those around you.

After all, this site is, in most cases, about how the future can be made better.

[wjfox]

[Yuli Ban]

[joe00uk]

False equivalency. Putin's aims go far beyond Ukraine, his eyes are firmly set on repeating this war with Moldova, after which the NATO-affiliated Baltic states come next. And not only that, he has openly flaunted his willingness to use nuclear weapons offensively to achieve these goals. The consequences of this, nuclear war, are much more insidious than any war or intervention by a Western country. Russia is actively pushing for WW3 with these goals.

Westerners have kept cool heads. No nuclear power responded in like to Putin's escalation of Russia's nuclear alert level. NATO has refused to enforce a no-fly zone, despite Ukrainian requests, and the US has emphasized many times no American boots will be on the ground in Ukraine.

In any case, I suppose you're arguing sanctions shouldn't be applied. But we can't just let Russia invade its neighbours without consequence. I don't necessarily support an oil ban for EU countries, since they rely on Russian natural gas and oil for now, but as for the rest of us? We can make do with our own resources, or get it from elsewhere. It's a logical step that would hurt the Russian economy.

No, if you live in the UK, US, Canada, Germany, Belgium, and so on, you don't need to fear Russians shelling your cities and schools. But there are many who do fear this now; in Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Finland. Would you have us abandon them to Putin's revanchist aims, to the same fate as Ukraine? We should avoid war with Russia at all costs, but that doesn't mean we have to let them run over Eastern Europe without lifting a finger.

False equivalency? How so?

Putin might want to restore a Russian sphere of influence across Eastern Europe, but to assume he's going to invade every other country there as well doesn't strike me as too reasoned. The other Eastern European countries just don't share the same recent history as Ukraine. The Baltic states, for example, were integrated into NATO and the EU without Russia lifting a finger. They also haven't had the same complications around Western-backed revolutions leading to domestic insurgencies that Ukraine has. Ukraine and Russia have a uniquely fraught relationship. Neighbouring countries aren't at the same risk. What they are at risk of is an increase in coercive diplomacy from Russia, but war? Not likely, unless NATO changes its mind and decides it does want to escalate.

Yes, I'm aware of that, and so far I'm thankful that NATO is declining to impose a no-fly zone on Ukraine. I hope this continues, and that our local war hawks don't ever gain the upper hand.

It's no longer a question of us letting this or that happen. We aren't that powerful. We're not the world's police force anymore. We have options to respond - either through sanctions, which is what we're doing currently, or militarily - which I hope to God doesn't happen. But we have to balance those responses against reality. If our responses aren't likely to achieve their goals, or if they're even likely to backfire against us, what's the point in them? I don't support this invasion, but I'm honestly not sure what sort of response would be effective if the goal is to end the war. The only realistic option I can see is encouraging Ukraine to accept neutrality, which in the West is politically impossible because that would just be seen as caving in to the Russians. Still, I don't see any other way that this war is going to end. Banning Russian oil (along with all the other sanctions) will, in all likelihood, provide a short-term shock which will be severe but in the medium to long term, speed up Russia's detachment from the West and a more complete reorientation towards China and other markets in the developing world. These sanctions are internecine, and I doubt that Russia will really end up so much worse off than us.

[joe00uk]

Joe, reviewing your posting history, I see very little variation in what you talk about.

You're certain that the U.S will be completely gone in a few decades. You say you view western regimes as no better than Russia. You think that facist governments will soon emerge in America and Europe. You also think the U.S should simply stop imposing sanctions on Russia despite the fact that they're invading a sovereign nation that basically did nothing to deserve it.

I fail to understand why you can't seem to do anything on this forum other than act like a doomer all day. Futurology is about far more than just war and politics. It's also about having just a little more faith in humanity's future than those around you.

After all, this site is, in most cases, about how the future can be made better.

Honestly, there's not that much variation on the forum as a whole. For the most part, it's either political and military affairs, or it's something to do with the Star Trek future that's supposedly just around the corner. I just post on matters that interest me. If you don't want to read what I have to say, then you don't have to.

Am I certain? No. I think that's the most likely scenario, but I'm not certain of it. Again, I think the emergence of such regimes is possible, but nowhere did I say it's certain. As I said to Maximus, whatever response we give has to be measured against reality. If the West ends up worse off whilst failing to achieve its objectives, then how is that effective?

Yes, it's tragic, but powerful countries do have a habit of invading weaker countries and that's been going on for all of human civilisation, and it will always be a feature of human civilisation for as long as it continues. The US and UK, for example, invaded Iraq in 2003 which was a sovereign nation which did basically nothing to deserve it. How is that so different? And I'm sorry if that's doom mongering, but that's just life. It's of no use to anyone to live in a fantasy world where we try to ignore things like this all the time and put religious faith in some sort of techno-utopia that may or may not arrive.

In any case, I don't "act like a doomer all day". That's clearly just what you read into something that conflicts with your worldview. As through all of history, change brings benefits in some ways in some parts of the world for some people and hardship for others. As far as I can see, that will continue. The future isn't all bad or all good. There are many different futures open to us right now, and which ones unfold around us depend on what we choose based on what's available to us now and where past decisions have left us today.

[TrueAnimationFan]

Okay, I probably shouldn't have called you a doomer, so I'm sorry for that. However, I was not trying to imply that I believed a "Star Trek" or techno-utopia sort of era is coming in the very near future, so I'd appreciate it if you didn't put words in my mouth like that. Also, isn't it slightly rude to call someone's hope that the world will slowly get better "religious faith"?

[joe00uk]

Okay, I probably shouldn't have called you a doomer, so I'm sorry for that. However, I was not trying to imply that I believed a "Star Trek" or techno-utopia sort of era is coming in the very near future, so I'd appreciate it if you didn't put words in my mouth like that. Also, isn't it slightly rude to call someone's hope that the world will slowly get better "religious faith"?

Thank you. Oh, no, I wasn't talking about you specifically there. I haven't combed through your posts. I was making a more general comment on the sort of attitudes I see from a few other people here.

[Ken_J]

...
Russia is clearly a menace to the world – a terrorist state, run by an evil psychopath, and needs to be isolated. An oil ban is the right decisison.

...
"Menace to the world"? The world is a lot bigger than North America and Europe. Much of the world is actually quite dependent on Russian resources - even including mainland Europe. "Terrorist state", "evil psychopath" - those words could also be applied to Western powers for everything our regimes have done over the years. What's the point? It's all just emotion. I prefer a sober analysis and looking at the data. Ukrainians who are actually suffering because of this war can obviously be excused, but Westerners like us who don't have to fear Russian bombs and missiles really shouldn't be behaving the same way. We need cool heads.
..

False equivalency. Putin's aims go far beyond Ukraine, his eyes are firmly set on repeating this war with Moldova, after which the NATO-affiliated Baltic states come next. And not only that, he has openly flaunted his willingness to use nuclear weapons offensively to achieve these goals. The consequences of this, nuclear war, are much more insidious than any war or intervention by a Western country. Russia is actively pushing for WW3 with these goals.

Westerners have kept cool heads. No nuclear power responded in like to Putin's escalation of Russia's nuclear alert level. NATO has refused to enforce a no-fly zone, despite Ukrainian requests, and the US has emphasized many times no American boots will be on the ground in Ukraine.

In any case, I suppose you're arguing sanctions shouldn't be applied. But we can't just let Russia invade its neighbours without consequence. I don't necessarily support an oil ban for EU countries, since they rely on Russian natural gas and oil for now, but as for the rest of us? We can make do with our own resources, or get it from elsewhere. It's a logical step that would hurt the Russian economy.

No, if you live in the UK, US, Canada, Germany, Belgium, and so on, you don't need to fear Russians shelling your cities and schools. But there are many who do fear this now; in Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Finland. Would you have us abandon them to Putin's revanchist aims, to the same fate as Ukraine? We should avoid war with Russia at all costs, but that doesn't mean we have to let them run over Eastern Europe without lifting a finger.

I'm not gonna point by point this, but Putin isn't seeking Nuclear war. In fact he's counting on it's ghost to keep the west out of his plans. It's like some mafia thugs beating down shop owners in an area for protection money and when some bystander gets too brave flash your gun and tell them this could go very bad for everybody involved or they can f*ck right off and mind their own business. It's not that the bystander doesn't or can't have a gun, just that right now a guy who isn't the bystander is getting beaten not shot, and nobody else is in any danger. So picking a fight about it without a gun escelates things, pulling a gun escelates, in fact the option for everybody to walk away alive and not make everything else worse is literally to f*ck off and mind your own business in this instance. Yes there may be further actions later to not let the thugs expand their territory and brutalize others and being a chronic problem of these kinds of confrontations going forward, but those cases are not forwarded by pushing the current situation any further.

Sanctions may have some, but limited impact on his choices. Russia is a big place, with plenty of resources. Might as well try and starve a farmer off his land.

Russia isn't going to grab at the baltic states or finland or whatever. Ukraine is distinct for a number of reasons. It is huge compared to many other countries in the region. It's resources and economy are very valuable. It's position is strategically adventageous for political and economic opportunities. It's population is kin to russians. And historically the concept of Russian people and culture really owes a lot to the distant past population of the ukraine region, one could almost argue that without early ukrainian peoples there never would have been a russia/soviet union. Frankly having a russia and a Ukraine could easily make some folks feel like having two Russias.

he may eventually pressure other former soviet states into rejoining, which is way easier to do with a united Ukraine and Russia, as economically and alliance wise isn't too big a leap to go with. But if something like EU, UN and NATO offers those areas a competeing offer, it makes those reunification efforts harder by demanding Russia give more in the bargain. So of course he would rather EU, UN and NATO shut up and go away, to stop muddying the waters and making it harder for these people to be allies and forming their own block.

[joe00uk]

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis

Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

More bad news for the West. It appears that our Russian oil gamble isn't paying off so well.

[Ken_J]

... You say you view western regimes as no better than Russia. You think that facist governments will soon emerge in America and Europe. You also think the U.S should simply stop imposing sanctions on Russia despite the fact that they're invading a sovereign nation that basically did nothing to deserve it.

... Futurology is about far more than just war and politics. It's also about having just a little more faith in humanity's future than those around you.

...

To be fair:
The western regimes really are not better than Russia. there are things we are actively worse about, but then there are things Russia is actively worse at. and It's not as clear and easy to say 'well the bad things about Russia are worse than the bad things about The West' . It's not super hard to cherry pick out some of the worst Trumpian, Brexiter, etc. and see that not only is this a few individuals with a bad take, but millions of citizens in these countries worship these people and their actions half the time celebrating 'drinking the liberal tears' while the opposition is so full of itself and believes it has any right to tell the rest of the world what is allowed to them after they raped and pilliaged the rest of the world to get to where they are. meanwhile cancer makes thousands of people homeless, people are strangled in the streets by law enforcement for selling loose cigarettes and passing a fake 20$. TL;DR. The west is a coalition of crumbling empires that fail to be what their people need them to be. Russia has it's own major problems, but enough of them are different that it's possible to see themselves as better because they don't have the horrors of somebody else.

Old empires, be they Russian or Western will use and abuse smaller states in plays of power that more often than not benefit the Empires more than the state. We don't have to like it, and can even oppose it as much as we want, but in a global world with power systems that afford opportunities the way they do, it's simply part of what empires are. It is literally the byproduct of building an empire, and like all organisms you can't just stop the production of byproducts (anymore than you can eliminate exhalation of co2 or excreting fecal matter). and to escape this whole mess we'd have to do away with the empires all together, which they are naturally resistant to.

The is a rise in facism, and the things that aid it's spread are scarcity of the needs of the population making it a question of who deserves to have their needs met, and more often than not an easy answer is found in who hasn't earned them by agreeing with your group. Any which way you think your group goes, defining who is and isn't the right group and that anyone not in the right group is not only not allowed resources, but actively trying to take resources away from their rightful owners who earned them... just a hop skip and a jump away from some dirty-word-isms.

I agree to some degree that futurism is about more that economics, politics, and conflicts... and I feel a little frustrated of late that that is where all the focus seems to go of late. But those things upset the balance and set the pace of the rest of it.

I didn't post a yearly prediction list for the last two years in part because, shits fucked up, yo. It feels like a badly scripted starwars thing to say the future is clouded by the darkside, but holy crap how many deaths have we had on the global level from a virus. Economies and governments ground to a halt because of it. supply chains have been disrupted, there are chip shortages for electronics, and the hardships have changed the labor markets.

Chance has taken a huge steamer on everything and figuring out what pieces of this will survive it all and what priorities will be in place after the dust settles depends on seeing the patterns and trends ongoing right now. and that is harder than ever.

[weatheriscool]

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis

Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

More bad news for the West. It appears that our Russian oil gamble isn't paying off so well.

Biden is completely shitting the bed and we'll be lucky to survive the next 3 years...Biden will probably be defeated by a republican in 2024. Maybe Donald Trump as believe it or not he did bring a hell of a lot more global stability and by that time people will lust after such a concept.

[Xyls]

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis

Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

More bad news for the West. It appears that our Russian oil gamble isn't paying off so well.

He literally could turn around and approve the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to solve this issue...

[R8Z]

[...]

As a matter of curiosity, and to bring some change to the thread: here's a black sun on the chest of the Ukraine's NATO-friendly soldier (first pic). Olds enemies turn into friends for a common foe, eh?

@NATO deleted the tweet. Probably a mistake.

[Cyber_Rebel]

Wouldn't this not be the ideal time to truly invest in Nuclear and big Green New Deal style public works? Nuclear energy is an asset to climate and energy needs, and we really should've developed our power grids around it sooner. Solar and wind are complimentary and really supplement this goal further.

[Yuli Ban]

From 2020 when we thought the Iran crisis was going to lead to WW3 (oh, remember those blessed days?)

Like, can we just go back to 2020?

[Yuli Ban]

Fuckin' facepalm moment

Like goddammit, man

[Ken_J]

the US literally gets less than 10% of it's fossil fuel energy from russia. There is more than enough to meet that need available in the Americas, through tapping our own and opening trade options with other nations in the Americas.

All that on top of the fact that one of the biggest electric car manufaturers in the world is in the US, and we've known for a long time that we need to shift away from our heavy oil and gas focussed energy policy, but some politicians in the pocket of those big companies keep spinning it as unamerican.

if we treated energy in this country like the greatest generation all pitched in for food rationing and victory gardens and all the changes in food and material uses to allow supplies for the war efforts... if we could do half of that for energy and grain production, not only would none of this even be a problem, but the outcome for our environment and world would be miles better.

[Yuli Ban]

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he has "cooled down regarding the question of a NATO membership for his country", which was a key reason why Russia went to war with its neighbour, the US' ABC News reported on Tuesday.

The leader of the war-torn nation was also reported to have gone a step ahead in mending fences with Vladimir Putin, stating that he was open to discussing the status of the two breakaway pro-Russian domains of Donetsk and Lugansk which Moscow insists are independent republics.

"I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in a televised interview. "The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia."

Zelenskyy also said Ukraine did not want to be a "country that is begging something on its knees" and he "did not want to be that President".